Corkscrew Swings

Bowman answers, I answer him...

2008-10-06T17:27:00.002-04:00

Mark Bowman has posted his recent mailbag. By the way, I sometimes thinks he searches out very easy questions.

(on a power hitting outfielder...)

When looking for potential options, it's easiest to look at the outfielders who will be free agents this winter. Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn fit this category. But I haven't gotten the sense either of these players are high on the club's wish list. Plus, Wren provided some indication that if possible, he'd like to fill this need via the trade market.

That's all fine and dandy, but remember, this team is not an outfielder away from competing. I fully understand not wanting to sign Burrell or Dunn. Both are defensive problems, both have huge question marks (can Burrell have a good non-contract year, does Dunn's unique hitting ability ultimately help teams win), and both are probably way too expensive. But you can't throw your prospects at a left fielder when you have more holes to fix than just that. I think a good leftfielder is worth three or four wins over Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, and company. But the Braves need, and I mean need, to focus on the pitching and not get off that focus. I don't care what that means...if you waste prospects on a left fielder and don't win, you have fucked up. Period.

If the Angels, who are also preparing for a busy offseason, decline Vladimir Guerrero's option and he becomes a free agent, he'd might be more attractive than any of the current crop of likely free agents. But can you really count on him to play more than 125 games in the outfield?

Well, no, they won't decline his option. The other point is somewhat valid. Vlad has played more than 125 games in the outfield just twice since 2002. The rock hard turf in Olympic Stadium totaled his baseball longevity in the outfield. Or did it? Well, he won't have the DH in the NL if he chooses to join an NL team after next year...but it could be just as likely as the Angels have been spelling their outfielders in the DH to keep them all healthy.

Each of their outfielders appeared in nine games as a DH, including super defender Torri Hunter. Garrett Anderson and Guerrero got the bulk of the starts, but Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews also played often. I think Vlad could play 130-140 games easy in the outfield if he had to. His offensive numbers would probably be hurt, too.

While looking for an outfielder Wren could land via trade, it might be best to look at the players eligible for free agency after the 2009 season. Matt Holliday and Jason Bay headline this list. With Bay enjoying instant stardom in Red Sox Nation, it's seeming likely that he and his affordable contract will be staying in Boston.

A more likely option for Atlanta could be Xavier Nady, who was on Wren's radar before being traded to the Yankees before this year's Trade Deadline. If the Yankees are willing to deal, the Braves certainly have reason to make an offer for Nady, who could double his $3.35 million salary through arbitration.

And now I'm scared. Are we seriously going to revisit the J.D. Drew mess? How good would Adam Wainwright look in this rotation? Now, granted, without Drew, the Braves probably don't make the playoffs that year, but let's be serious for a second. The Braves can't afford to waste Thomas Hanson on a one year rental and that's what this whole thing boils down to. Nady could be sensible, though.

With Nady in place, the Yankees might be more apt to say goodbye to Bobby Abreu, who is reportedly looking for a three-year contract. At 34 years old, Abreu might not be worth the $16 million salary that he earned this past season. But coming off consecutive 100-RBI seasons, he's certainly worth a look.

Well, I think the Yanks will retain Abreu....but he will likely be much more expensive than the Braves want to, or should, put out for an outfielder.

On the subject of Jo-Jo Reyes...

Reyes has the physical tools to be successful at the Major League level. Tom Glavine and John Smoltz liked him enough that they monitored many of his bullpen sessions until he decided that the Hall of Fame knowledge they were providing was handicapping his mental process during games.

Late in the season, Reyes revealed that around the All-Star break, he told Glavine and Smoltz that he didn't want their assistance anymore. That was only slightly less disturbing than the fact that he admitted he came to his first Major League Spring Training this year unprepared to consistently locate his pitches.

Given all of the embarrassment he encountered this year, Reyes has every reason to push himself as hard as ever over the next few months. He's already tested the patience of a very patient Bobby Cox, and that obviously suggests his future with the Braves might be on its last leg.

Are you freaking kidding me? John Smoltz and Tom Glavine try to help you and that's what is handicapping your mental process? Maybe it's because you pitched very poorly. Reyes is kind of the latest example of the Braves hurler...helped on by pitchers' parks, who truly, isn't that much of a prospect. But because of a lack of options, he grows into a last hope for the Braves. If Bobby Cox is tired of you, your days are definitely numbered.

Jo-Jo, you're seriously on notice.

David Wright...chokester

2008-09-25T03:14:00.003-04:00

I love New York. I really do. I think they bring a lot of great things to this country. Some of the best music clubs in the country like CBGB (though closed now) are there. Times Square is there. The Statue of Liberty, Broadway, lower Manhattan, Madison Square Garden, Ellis Island...I mean, I've never been there, but damn do I want to go.

But holy fuck, their fans can be pretty apeshit. Case in point, David Wright.

You may have heard of him. Wright, a Norfolk boy, was drafted in 2001 and was in the majors just three years later. In nearly 700 career games, he has hit .309/.388/.534 with an adjusted OPS that is 39% better than the league average. A lot of people are down on his defense, but he reminds me of Rafael Furcal. The errors mask how good he actually is because his incredible range leads to tough chances.

Sounds like the kind of guy you might want. I think he's a little less than Chipper at the same points in their career, but is clearly a better defender. However, to hear the Mets fans talk, you'd think he was a bum.

See, New York fans have this snowball quality. They attach themselves to an easy statement and go with it. A-Rod is a choker, the Yankee fans say. They base this on a handful of games in any given year that just so happen to typically be against the better pitching in the league. Yet, if you looked at his career with RISP, he is hitting .303/.403/.553. Choking implies that the player gets worse in high-stress situation. A-Rod's overall career marks are .306/.389/.578. A small difference. But he's a choker.

Enter Wright, A-Rod's crosstown third base rival. .301/.395/.502 career with RISP. I'd take that, myself.

But he's a choker because the fans say he is. Now someone is going to point out that his numbers with RISP are exceptionally bad this year (.246/.329/.380). But I can have fun with seasonal splits. With a runner on first, Wright is hitting .350/.443/.775. So maybe Jose Reyes should just stay at first and everything will be okay. Did you know Mr. Clutch, Derek Jeter, hit just .261/.386/.355 with RISP in 2005? But the same people who whine about A-Rod and Wright point to Jeter as the man who rises above.

No, he doesn't. And, no, A-Rod and Wright don't slink down in clutch situations. The truth is...all three are very good players. A-Rod is probably the best player of this generation. But some seasons, the hits just don't come with runners in scoring position. This game isn't completely under your control. You can't pick when you get the hits and when you don't.

What I've never understood is that if players suddenly concentrate harder with runners on, if they held that same concentration every at-bat, they'd all be .400 hitters, right?

By all means, Mets fans...scream about trading David Wright. Yell it to the management. Maybe they will listen. Hopefully, they trade him out of the NL East. And by the time you blast management for trading him, maybe you'll understand that you do not seem to grasp the game as much as you think.

(I promise to talk about the Braves more in the future, I do.)

Ryan Effin Howard?

2008-09-24T20:32:00.003-04:00

Seriously, ESPN bugs the living crap out of me.

Watching/listening the Mets/Cubs game because I have no energy to get the remote and change the channel and they just had the most asinine discussion about NL MVP. Both Dave O'Brien and the imbecile Rick Sutcliffe believe Ryan Howard should be MVP.

In fact, "Obi" came to the conclusion before Sutcliffe, who believe Howard is a better candidate for the award than Albert Pujols.

I know not everyone is going to believe in the value of fancy stats like VORP, but shouldn't it say something that the stat that is designed to find "value" has Ryan Howard ranked 30th...amongst all NL position players. Value. That word is in the award! Most Valuable Player. I can read it right there!

Ryan Howard is the sixth best 1B. He's only that high because the Braves traded Mark Teixeira. Ryan Howard ranks behind Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins on his own team. Shane Victorino, that smelly Hawaiian, is about as worthy to be named NL MVP as Ryan Howard. Cole Hamels and possibly Jamie Moyer would be better candidates.

And guess what...Howard just committed his 18th error, allowing the Braves fifth run to score in what is now a 6-3 game between the Phils and the Braves.

I sometimes want to smack people on the TV. This is one of those times.

Braves Say Goodbye to Shea

2008-09-15T00:03:00.005-04:00

In their last series at Shea Stadium before the Mets move across the street, the Braves finished in the same way they have finished many three-game sets in Flushing since 1991. They won the series two games to one. After halting their infamous one-run game losing streak on the road with a 3-2 win in the opener of the double header against Johan Santana and Company yesterday, the Braves failed to score with a lineup that even the eternally optimistic Bobby Cox had to feel a little down about putting up.

Gregor Blanco, CF
Martin Prado, 2B
Kelly Effin Johnson, 2B
Omar Infante, LF
Krotchy McKrotchman, 1B
The French Prince, RF
Lillipad, SS
Clint Sammons, C
Jo-Jo Reyes, P

While there is never an excuse to get shutout by a rookie who the Brew Crew tore a new one in his major league debut, that is still pretty bad.

However, they dusted off, got off the mat, shook off the cobwebs, insert sports cliche here, and came from behind to beat the Mets 7-4 earlier today. The Mets fans, who enter hysteria at the smallest sign of failure, were on suicide watch following the game as nightmares of last September began. Luis Ayala, who I picked up for my fantasy team (oops) entered with a 4-2 lead, built by Braves slayer Oliver Perez and seven quality innings. Ayala then allowed three consecutive hits to Krotchy, PH KJ (sounds like code), and Greg "The Hammer" Norton. Norton's hit went the distance, though, and the game was quickly 5-4. Not to be outdone, Pedro Feliciano entered to allowed two hits and walk two and get charged with the other two runs to build a three run lead that Gonzo could not surrender.

Jorge Julio, who tossed an unimpressive 8th, improved to 2-0 in seven games with the Braves. He has pitched like shit, but that's why win-loss record is increasingly frustrating.

The win, combined with Philly sweeping a pair from the Brewers, has tightened the race in the NL East and the Wild Card. The latter is now tied between the Brewers and Phillies and the NL East is now separated by just a game. But none of that matters. The Braves have now won seven of their last ten. This is a team that won just nine of 29 games in the month of August so perspective, people!

CHIPPER WATCH 2008
Chipper Jones went 3 for 5 today. Albert Pujols went 2 for 4. Here is the updated batting average.
Chipper - .36471
Pujols - .36008

Elsewhere, these people believe Matt Holliday might be in the future for the Braves. A hypothetical offer...KJ, Thomas Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez, and Kyle Cofield. Holliday is due $13.5M next season and will be a free agent after 2009. His agent is Scott Boras. I'm just not too keen on trading away the system for another player. And for the record, though I am not trying to say his OPS away from Coors will turn into his full season OPS, he is only OPSing .803 away from Coors in his career. He is a good hitter, but he's certainly not that awesome.

This quote from Ned Colletti bugs me. “I’ll let you know in a year.” The quote was to the question did he regret signing Andruw Jones? Well, you know, Colletti, you knew the dangers. Andruw has not changed. What, did you think you could throw a shitload of money at him and suddenly, he is Alex Rodriguez? It does not work like that. You should take responsibility for that signing, not pass it on to Andruw.

By the way, I am in love with Kat Dennings. She makes me feel funny like I gotta hurl. Wayne says that I should hurl and "If you blow chunks and she comes back, she's yours. But if you spew and she bolts, then it was never meant to be." Hmm...worth a shot.

Smoltz...will he be back?

2008-09-09T13:52:00.001-04:00

Atlanta Magazine has an article out on the subject of John Smoltz.

“I say this for the first time, without reservation, if I’m going to bust my butt and if I feel like I’m good enough and it doesn’t work out here, I will be pitching somewhere else … My dream scenario would be to pitch in the playoffs again, and that’s coming from a guy who’s been in 13 of them. (Smoltz missed the 2000 playoffs with Tommy John surgery.) To me, that’s what I’m about. So if the door gets closed here, it’ll have to be explored somewhere else.”

Simple. To the point. If the Braves don't want him back, Smoltz will find some team that wants 41 year-old who last year struck out 197 and posted a 1.18 WHIP. He also has 3011 lifetime strikeouts. Suffice it to say, he is pretty good.

“Make no mistake,” he said a few minutes later. “I am absolutely, 100 percent committed to playing the rest of my career for the Atlanta Braves. But this can’t be my only option … I may not be in the [Braves’] plans. It’s no given right, where I’ve spent 21 years here and [so] they owe me whatever I want.”

The author does a poor idea of explaining that last sentence. To me, he is saying that the Braves do not owe him and there would be no hard feelings if they do not have him in their plans. I think that is sensible enough.

To me, Smoltz is just trying to put a little pressure on the Braves. Make a quick decision where he stands so he can open discussions elsewhere.

I hope he comes back. The Braves simply have no one better. But if the Braves are going to embrace a rebuild year where they are without Tim Hudson most of the season, it would be best to allow Smoltz to move on. It's a tough decision.

Another loss

2008-09-07T23:36:00.003-04:00

Well, the Braves lose again. Francoeur goes 1 for 7, Jeff Bennett sucks, and the Braves used nine pitchers, only maybe two deserve to be in the majors. Seriously, how does this team ever win?

This game also included the the latest installment of "Martin Prado: Major League First Baseman." Even if you are a bit like me and do not put too much value in positional value, a 1B has to hit for more power than Prado, right?

To prove how these games are very much like exhibitions, only two players played the entire game (Escobar and the aforementioned French Prince). Chipper went 3 for 6 to push his AVG to .358. That is still a point behind Albert Pujols, who went 1 for 4, but his hit easily outdistanced any of Chipper's as it was a two-run shot, part of a 3-1 win in support of Adam Wainwright.

Hey, it's football season and in a rarity, all of my football teams won this weekend. JMU crushed North Carolina Central 53-7 (though NC Central is barely a DI-AA team), Notre Dame avoided an upset by beating San Diego State, and the Cowboys rolled over the Browns. Good weekend there.

Oh, yeah, baseball blog. Braves remain in Atlanta for a three-game set with the Rockies before heading to Shea next weekend. Oddly, Fox's signature game next Saturday is the Braves/Mets. Maybe that will change. Maybe it should change.

18 games left. Six game lead over the Nats to stay out of last place.

Can the Braves do it?

w00t, keeping Washington in last place!

2008-09-06T14:14:00.002-04:00

Back-to-back wins against the oddly worse Washington Nationals have the Braves feeling good about life. The guys feel like they can go home and diddle the wife. The coaches feel like their hard work is paying off. And the fans don't really have anyone to bitch about. And the Braves still have a hope to finish above .500. Yes, they cannot lose another game, but stranger things have happened?

Oh, they haven't? Well then.

KJ's been hitting the ball a bit. In his last 19 games, KJ is hitting .338/.397/.507. Now, it's certainly nothing too special, but hopefully a good sign. I'm such a KJ apologist, I know. But hey, he's the only one who I really feel is hitting significantly under his ability.

And yes, that includes Jeff Francoeur, who some guy named Marco Estrada hit yesterday. Methinks Estrada is actually a Braves fan. Anyway, the French prince is day-to-day.

Brandon Jones continues to get regular at-bats and is succeeding at them. I still am not ready to write him off as a potential .900 OPS guy from the outfield, though he was pretty bad at Richmond this year. I blame the confusing Richmond traffic. Lillipad, you're excused, too.

J-And, who is a great navigator, is also hitting in Atlanta. .305/.369/.441 with five steals. I don't think the power will be sustained, but if he keeps that SLG above .400 and that OBP in reasonably effective leadoff status, he is already much more valuable than Gregor Blanco, who would slide into a solid fourth outfielder.

The outfield for next year is problematic for a few reasons. One, I doubt they will deal Francoeur, so let's pencil him in right. Let's say J-And has a foot in the door in center. You need a bigger bat in left. Your infield, for argument's sakes, is pretty well packed. Even if you deal KJ, which has been discussed, are you going to find a bigger bat for the position? Doubtful. This team needs power, ESPECIALLY if they deal KJ, who after McCann, Chipper, Krotchy, and Francoeur, is the only player with potential power. I like Brandon Jones, but you can't rely on that. I think the Braves need a power bat in left next season.

The pitching...remains horrible and the Braves are getting a collection of weak pitchers to finish the season. I'd write more...but Notre Dame's on! Go Irish!

Yikes

2008-08-23T14:11:00.004-04:00

I'm being no-hit by Barry Zito in Out of the Park, but even that's not as bad as the Braves have been recently. 18-3 loss yesterday which would have amusing if the Rams had been beating the Falcons by that score. Instead, it was the Cardinals beating the Braves. I think LaRussa shouldn't have settled for so many field goals, but that's why I'm not a coach.

Holy shinazzle (I am a German thug), Jeff Francoeur with the infield single to break up the no-no.

Back to real baseball, the Braves are now 6 and 15 in August. In 21 games, they have scored 86 runs, which isn't too terrible I guess. They have allowed 127. Since June 1st, the Braves are a horrible 27-46. They are 17 games under .500. They have lost six straight and 11 of 12.

So, basically, things are bad, mmmmk?

This team is so bad on so many levels. Martin Prado, all of 17 professional homeruns since singing as an undrafted free agent, has been getting starts at first. Omar Infante, all of 35 major league homeruns since 2002, has been the fifth placed hitter. Even Chipper Jones has struggled in August, hitting .289 with just one homerun.

And God help me, do I even want to mention the pitching? The starting rotation's ERA in the second half...5.62. The bullpen has been even worse...7.36.

The 80's Braves teams are calling and saying "damn man, that's rough."

The 119 loss Tigers team a few years ago just sent a txt, "keep yo head up."

Tanner of the Bad News Bears just yelled, "God damn, man, kick some fucking ass."

The way the team is playing, they wouldn't even beat the Hawaii Little League team.

Is it over yet?

Glavine's Last Stand

2008-08-17T10:44:00.003-04:00

Well, it looks like the sun has set on the career of Tom Glavine. It's his last call. One last dying breath.

Perhaps I've cliche'd myself up too much. Anywho, according to the World Wide Leader in Poorly Covered Sports...

Braves pitcher Tom Glavine is out for the season, and his illustrious career could be over if he needs major surgery on his injured left elbow.

The 42-year-old Glavine still hopes to return next year -- unless he needs elbow ligament replacement surgery.

According to another link I read, Glavine would be "shocked" if there wasn't anything wrong with his elbow. So chances are heavy that Glavine has hit the end of the road. He's a sure Hall of Famer, a 300 game winner, a two time Cy Young winner, a World Series MVP, and a hell of a slapshot.

So...big thumbs up on that signing!

Matt Effin DeSalvo?

2008-08-16T10:53:00.002-04:00

The Braves are so bad off that recently activated Tom Glavine hits the DL a-GIN and we call up Matt DeSalvo. He's not even a AAAA pitcher having a good year. I know win-loss records aren't that helpful, but something tells me that no amount of sabermetrics will put a positive spin on a 2-11 record at AAA.

This just in...Richmond is horrible.

Where's Brad Woodall when you need him?

Um, yeah

2008-08-12T23:57:00.003-04:00

So my last post talked about renewed faith. Well, that went away with Francoeur's promotion after, oh, three hours. Maybe it was five hours, but I know the demotion did not last nearly long enough. Since then, the Braves have officially packed it in, trading Teix to the Angels for Casey Krotchman (thanks Francoeur) and some minor league pitcher. I am not going to delve into whether the Braves got enough. Either way, it's done and gone.

Also gone is Tim Hudson. Tommy John. Oh happy day...

Also gone, but with great sadness, Skip Carey. While Skip was never my favorite announcer, he was a fun one to listen to. You can find several links to quotes, tributes, etc. at this chopnation link. By the way, we have closed off new members from easily coming on board due to spam. If you want to join chopnation, register and then e-mail me. You'll be in shortly.

What else...

Oh, Jeff Francoeur sucks. Like seriously. Like, even AJC is saying it. I mean, when Bobby finally breaks down and says..."ya know, I'd rather start an outfield of Infante, Kotsay, and Blanco than have you start Francoeur" your career took a wrong turn at Albuquerque.

Charlie Morton has had a few good starts. Still not nearly convinced he's much of anything.

Tom Glavine's returning Wednesday. I am really hoping he has a nice few starts and the Braves can pull a waiver deal.

What to look forward the rest of the way...see if KJ can finally turn the corner this season. He's been flirting with really good and really average numbers...how great will McCann's season rank in Braves history among catchers?...can Chipper stay healthy and hit well enough to take home a batting title?...can Jurrjens finish strong and make it really hard for the baseball writers to ignore what he has done this year?...what roles will Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, and Jo-Jo Reyes play in September?

I am actually interested in what happens the rest of the way. After all, according to the Forbes, I am quite loyal to the Braves.

Oh, the times are a'changing

2008-07-05T12:11:00.003-04:00

I don't post for over a month and suddenly, the Braves grow some testicles? Who knew?

Well, if you have been living under a rock the past few days, the Braves decided yesterday to option struggling right-fielder Jeff Francoeur to Mississippi and purchased the contract of little-known Jason Perry from Richmond. The team then went out and finally won, ending a streak of five straight loses. Granted, it was Houston the Braves defeated and the ancient Brian Mohler, but a win is a win, right?

Sending Francoeur down was definitely a changing of the guard. A very un-Schuerholz type move, especially in recent years. The Braves often refused to make tough decisions with their own players, including who to give up on, who to demote, and who to eliminate. Well, the latter would be breaking the law, but still, it's a tough decision.

But this decision has in a way renewed my faith in my team. That faith has, I admit, been wavering as I witnessed their consistent inability to win games and seem to give a damn while they did. Chipper Jones was battling for icon status and the team just never seemed to care to get better around him.

Francoeur's decision can go one of three ways.

The first is the one I most doubt. Francoeur not getting better as a byproduct of this decision. Francoeur has been hyped since day one as the Natural, the Franchise, the Golden Boy, and whatever bullshit label in the book. Now, he's simply Mississippi's starting right fielder. For the first time in a few years, he has to take a step back personally and professionally. Second, he's been pretty abysmal so he has to get better. At the time of his demotion, he was hitting .234/.287/.374. To put that number into context, in 1991, Rafael Belliard hit 249/.296/.286. Essentially, Francoeur was a roided up Rafael Belliard. Francoeur is not going to be a great player, but he is better than that.

Another way the demotion could go is to jumpstart the team. Sometimes, just showing you have the balls to make a tough decision lights a fire under a team. I doubt that any fire lit after the demotion will continue to burn beyond a few games, but it might be enough to get the team to springboard into the second half.

A third way this demotion could impact the team is that at least for the Braves starting right fielder, it might help him finally make long-term adjustments. Since his promotion in July of 2005, Francoeur has seemed to always take a step forward and then another back. He hit dominated after his promotion in 2005, but struggled in September. He hit 29 homers in 2006, but posted a .293 OBP. He came close to doubling his walk total in 2007, but his power slumped to 19 homers. This year, he talked a big game about 30 homers and 20 steals. He was on pace for 15 homers and had yet to steal a base successfully. Francoeur's fall from grace is complete. He has been humbled. Now he has to get better because the Braves have shown baseball that they think he's flawed, too.

I think he will get better, but again, I don't think he is much better than league average. But right now, with this pisspoor outfield the Braves are putting out, league average would be a vast improvement.

You Got Questions?

2008-05-18T11:51:00.002-04:00

Forty-two games into the season, the Braves inability to go one way or another has forced me to ask many questions. And in a true sign of ego, I will also answer them.

1. Are the Braves a .500 team?

Atlanta seems incapable of getting a run and staying above .500. A five-game win streak got them to 10-9, they lost two straight. Got back to 12-11, lost four straight. Followed that with another five game win streak to get to 18-15, lost three straight, and have been alternating wins and loses since to come into Sunday at 21-21.

Now, most will point two the road record (6-16), but I think that is misleading. They have only allowed seven more runs on the road than they've scored so that record should not be that bad. Then there is the 2-12 one-run record. I feel one-run records can be a sign that the bullpen hasn't been keeping leads, but its hard to really get much out of the record beyond that and there are better ways of seeing how effective the bullpen has been at keeping leads.

I think right now...the Braves are merely a .500 team for a few reasons. The starting pitching has yet to show up beyond Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Tom Glavine has had a few games and a few bad ones so in truth, that is what the Braves had to expect from him. That is why they needed three reliable pitchers _and_ Glav. They do not have that. Jo-Jo Reyes has shown a bit more control than he did last year with just five walks in three games, but he has been far too hittable. Chuck James was horrible and demoted. Jeff Bennett retakes his place and in Bennett's defense, he never lost a spot in the staff. His three starts aren't that bad (0-1, 3.07 ERA)

And then, there is the bullpen. In the late innings, this pen is really at a disadvantage. Manny Acosta simply isn't that good. Blaine Boyer's arm will likely self-destruct if he doesn't get a few days off. Royce Ring has sorta done his job. He somehow has been recorded as pitching seven innings...in 17 games. Will Ohman's WHIP is scary, but the results haven't been. However, there is no Rafael Soriano, no Mike Gonzalez, not even a John Smoltz just yet. Phil Stockman will hopefully add something solid.

In the lineup, four players are getting it done, four are not. That sets you up for a lot of innings where rallies get started, but not finished. Chipper Jones is obviously incredible and Yunel Escobar, Mark Kotsay, and Brian McCann have followed suit. But the Braves need, absolutely need, better production from Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur. The LF platoon of Matt Diaz/Gregor Blanco isn't too bad, but one can't hit for power and the other can't get on base.

The lineup is the easiest to fix. You just have to believe that players will perform up to their reasonable expectations. But the pitching will need work and improved health, especially in the pen. I am still convinced that if the Braves want to compete for a spot in October, they need a starter to step behind Hudson and Jurrjens.

2. Will Chipper hit .400?

Simple answer, no. But he will win his first batting title this year and if the Braves can somehow get into the playoffs, will be in line for his second MVP. Chipper is locked in like I have never seen him. If he can stay healthy and play 145 games, I have to believe that he can definitely hit above .350, which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself. In the last five years, five players have managed that feat (Ichiro twice).

3. Are the Braves better with KJ and Kotsay switching spots?

Stagnant, not better. While Kots is outproducing KJ so far, KJ remains the better offensive talent and while Bobby Cox never seems to agree, the better player to receive more at-bats. You organize your batting lineup to get your best offensive players the most at-bats. Hence why the top five players should include KJ, Yunie, Chipper, Teix, and McCann. Maybe if it's a lefty on the mound, I could see dropping McCann and hitting Francoeur fifth.

4. Finally, will Mike Hampton finally help the Braves win games this year?

Yes.

By not pitching them.

The Right Man for the Job?

2008-05-11T15:46:00.002-04:00

After last season ended, the lack of reliable starting pitching came to the forefront as a serious problem for the Atlanta Braves. The rotation last year combined for a 4.45 ERA and once you take out the two aces (John Smoltz and Tim Hudson), the staff managed just 5.1 ING per start. The bullpen, the focus of the previous offseason, stood up admirably well, posting a top notch 3.54 ERA despite three pitchers getting into 70 games.

Frank Wren's first offseason was spent scouring the league in search for starting pitching. He traded for the tremendously talented but raw Jair Jurrjens and signed the former Brave Tom Glavine. Despite the fact that he was relying so much on Smoltz and Glavine and their combined 83 birthday celebrations, the staff was supposed to be competitive starting crew with returnees Hudson, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Buddy Carlyle, and - of course - Mike Hampton.

Through one-plus months of ball, we know these sure things.

-John Smoltz is hurt, probably not going to start another game this year.

-Jair Jurrjens is the real deal, one of the game's most promising pitchers.

-Mike Hampton is hurt. Again.

With Hudson and Jurrjens, the Braves have two very good starters who give the Braves a chance to win each game. Glavine has been decent and basically giving the Braves what I felt he was capable of. Decent effort, nothing more. Essentially, an overpaid Chuck James without James' penchant for giving up homers. Speaking of James, there has been little progression in the numbers for him or Reyes.

Without Smoltz, this staff looks pretty weak. It is time to move on to more options.

Possibly the quickest fix is Greg Maddux. Now, I am not a sentimental guy. The Big Three getting together for one last run with Uncle Bobby and Cousin Chip means little to me. What does interest me is Maddux's impact on the team.

While much was made of Maddux's inability to win 350 in a timely matter, the numbers show that Maddux has been as good as anyone the Braves can realistically target. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a number that shows a pitcher's true ERA, sits at 3.74. He would fit nicely behind Hudson and Jurrjens and provide some insurance if Jurrjens fails to keep up his high level through the dog days of summer.

Maddux also averages around six innings a start. If Glavine can do the same, it would give you two inning-eaters. Both pitchers would provide another year of learning for Jo-Jo Reyes, who can be left at Richmond barring injury.

Getting Maddux might be complicated. He will be paid $10M this year and has a no-trade clause. However, it would be a good bet to say that Maddux would waive it to get out of the San Diego sinking ship and go to a team like Atlanta. He would be comfortable here, pitching in a stadium he won many games with teammates he is used to.

The time to start talking to the Padres is now. The quicker this deal is done, the easier it will be to acquire Maddux. The last thing you want is a bidding war in July. The Padres don't seem to be going anywhere and have shown in recent days that they are willing to move in another direction.

Bring back Mad Dog.

The offense will come together. There are just too many good hitters for it not to. Add Maddux to the staff and whatever help Smoltz, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano give to the bullpen and the Braves suddenly look like true blue contenders.

(Idea inspired by this post at chopnation.

Braves Fall 3-2 to Bucs

2008-05-10T00:29:00.002-04:00

-There goes the win streak.

-Bobby Cox's decisions bugged me tremendously in this game. Bunting with Greg Norton and sticking with Glavine after luckily getting six average innings are the biggest two. I hate the bunt and I hate Glavine so sticking with him just made me want to slap someone.

-The hitters...were horrible.

-Urgh. Frustrating game.

John Sickels reviews Tommy Hanson

2008-05-09T15:42:00.002-04:00

My favorite minor league analyst reviewing my favorite Braves prospect.

Tommy Hanson was drafted by the Braves in the 22nd round in 2005, a draft-and-follow pick from Riverside CC in California. He signed and made his pro debut in 2006, going 4-1, 2.09 with a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 51 innings for Danville in the Appalachian League, showing excellent control of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, but noted that he had higher potential and that there was a chance he could break through in '07 and '08, possibly emerging as a top prospect.

Hanson began 2007 with Rome in the Sally League, going 2-6 but with a 2.59 ERA and a 90/26 K/BB in 73 innings, with just 51 hits allowed. Promoted to Myrtle Beach at mid-season, he went 3-3, 4.20 with a 64/32 K/BB in 60 innings. The main negative here was an elevated home run rate at Myrtle Beach, with 10 homers given up in just 11 starts and 60 innings. Nevertheless, I was impressed with him and gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, a grade for which I took some flack. Most people seemed to think he was more of a Grade B/B- type guy.

I personally think the grade is fair. I think a B- grade would have been low and he is somewhere between B and B+ for sure, maybe closer to the latter. When I look at Hanson, I see a guy who stays young enough for his level, but does well each stop. Even his struggles at Myrtle Beach were not particularly tough to imagine because he had youth on his side.

2008 has been great so far: 3-1, 0.79 for Myrtle Beach, with a 42/10 K/BB in 34 innings and just 14 hits allowed, zero homers. Yes he's repeating the league, but given the way he's dominated so far I imagine a promotion to Double-A will be in order shortly and we'll get a better read on his progress then. He's just 21 so although he's a league-repeater he isn't old for the competition by any means.

I think inning-repeater is a bit disingenuous. Yes, he's repeating a level because he finished last year with the Pelicans, but that is a scant 94 total innings with the Pelicans.

Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.

Definitely my concern too. He fluctuates between 30% and 40% for groundballs. That is a bit of a fear. But then, if it works for Cole Hamels...

It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.

My grade? B+

I think he can be a solid starter in the mold Sickels suggests, possibly better. According to the comments, Hanson has brought increased velocity this year, allowing him to remain a strikeout threat.

Omar, where you been?

2008-05-07T22:55:00.003-04:00

From the latest Braves team report via Yahoo.

INF Omar Infante’s debut with the Braves should come in a week or less—however long it takes for him to get enough at-bats in his minor league starts to feel comfortable. Infante, on the disabled list all season with a broken left hand, went a combined 2-for-7 in his first two rehab games with Class AAA Richmond on Monday and Tuesday.

Okay, that's all good and so forth...but who loses their spot?

Well, currently, the Braves have five bench players. Greg Norton and Gregor Blanco (or should I say Matt Diaz?) are safe. Corky Miller probably is too because he is getting the backup catcher time.

That leaves a pair of players who are out of options in Ruben Gotay and Brayan Pena. My gut tells me Gotay will get the boot, but I would prefer to keep Gotay and do something with Pena. Pena is essentially dead weight with Norton around. Before, Pena was the first bat off the bench. He has been replaced. Norton can play all the positions Pena can except catch, though by Bobby's refusal to use him as a catcher and all the commentary to say pitchers don't like throwing to Pena, he isn't a catcher either. At least not in the system.

Time to put him on the table and get something for him. He really has no place on this team now. Pena is a good hitter and maybe another organization will use him as a catcher, maximizing his value. Probably not and he probably should have been traded before that became known, but oh well. Pena has had 14 AB and the only game he has come to the plate twice was the time the Braves batted around so he got two plate appearances as a pinch hitter. He has had absolutely no use for a glove. Get it done, Wren.

And no, I didn't say get r done. If you say that around me, I might be forced to slap you. Sorry, but its got to be said.

UPDATE...oh, so I write all that and after tonight's game, the Braves DL'd Pena and recalled Infante. So...I'm sorta right.

----

Rafael Soriano hurts and nobody seems to know why. But then again, that's why he has tendinitis, which is greek for "I hurt yet no one knows why."

The article also mentions Peter Moylan, who will get operated on tomorrow and no one really knows how bad he is. I swear, did the Braves change their HMO or what?

----

Good win tonight by the Braves, though they wasted a lot of opportunities. I know Bobby won't, but I'd like to see an outfield of Diaz, Kots, and Blanco tomorrow.

Smoltz...and Bonds!

2008-05-07T18:50:00.002-04:00

Dugout Central chimes in with this column.

Last season Smoltz threw the second-most innings on the staff – about a seventh of their total innings. The team finished with the third-lowest ERA and the sixth-fewest runs allowed. Last season they probably didn’t have anyone capable of doing what Jair Jurrjens could do this season, and their pitching staff wasn’t as deep. It’s still hard to see this year’s pitching staff being significantly better than last seasons’. The Smoltz injury and subsequent move to the bullpen costs the Braves a lot of great innings.

It is a valid point. Without Smoltz in the rotation, someone has to pitch the other 170ish innings that coming into the season, Smoltz was relied on to pitch. That is a hell of a lot of innings to go. While I can agree with the comment at the bottom and having Smoltz for 40-60 more innings is better than zero innings, it does hurt this staff tremendously, turning what many called a deep staff into a thin one.

You can replace Mike Hampton. You can't replace John Smoltz.

To make the playoffs, they’ll need their offense to continue to be as good as expected. They’ll also need Tim Hudson to step up and Jurrjens to continue to pitch well. One more above average starter would also help. You can bet GM Frank Wren is working the phones looking for anyone willing to give up any decent starter to provide the Braves some quality innings. The challenge? What GM isn’t looking for the same?

Exactly. I did a little research last night for the kind of names the Braves might target (low cost, little investment in time) and came up with Odalis Perez, Livan Hernandez, and Shawn Chacon. Now, maybe the Braves want to put a big investment on the table...but it's going to cost them and I just don't think they are comfortable making their second straight prospect dump like they did with Teix.

Elsewhere, the MLBPA doesn't have enough to do is questioning why Barry Bonds is still a free agent and received no offers. At first glance, its easy to say "well, he has his legal troubles." Then maybe you can add that he's old and can't field worth a damn and always has had a girl's arm.

But it actually is a question worth asking. Last year, Bonds hit .276/.480/.565. There is not an AL team around that can't improve their DH numbers with Bonds?

Of course, he's a PR risk. And a clubhouse cancer. And he has small testicles after years of steroid abuse. But I gotta think the Orioles would have a better offense with Bonds.

Let's Meet...Greg Norton!

2008-05-05T15:35:00.002-04:00

That's Mr. Norton looking pretty happy as a D-Ray. Now, they are just the Rays. Oh wells.

He was probably happy in Tampa because he had his best season there in 2006 when he hit .296/.374/.520 with 17 homers. After sucking last year, he picked up with the Mariners and was forced out because of a number crunch despite hitting well in limited opportunities. The Braves acquired him today for a player to be named and he will replace Martin Prado, who stupidly hurt his wrist sliding into first yesterday.

Norton is your typical reserve corner guy. He can play some first, third, right, and left. In a pinch, you can move him to second, but you would rather not. He's not going to hit for much average, but does get on base pretty well despite a low average and will hit for some pop. And he's a switch-hitter, which helps matters.

Norton was originally a second round choice of the Chicago White Sox, where he spent most of his professional career until signing with the Rockies in 2000. After two years there, he spent a year with Detroit, back with the Rockies for spring training in '05, back with the ChiSox for the rest of '05, two years with the Rays, and then the start of this year with the M's where he was 7 of 16 this year after getting called up.

A small deal that could be useful depending on which Norton you get ('06 or '07 Norton).

Is he really?

2008-05-05T12:15:00.002-04:00

This from the Morning Juice blog via Yahoo...

Jonesing for Chipper: He's had a fantastic career but he's underrated when it comes to placing him with the game's best in this or any era. And if somebody out there gives me a, "Oh, Hanley Ramirez went second in my roto draft, you're an idiot"-like comment, you're getting a virtual slap. Let's see ... other than Bonds and A-Rod, you could argue Chipper was as good or better than Griffey, the Big Hurt, Sheffield, Manny.

The one thing that makes this argument so valid despite Chipper's injuries is that he plays a much tougher position that 1B/DH or the OF. However, Junior does make up a little since he played center field, and a solid center field at that, for so many years.

If we were to start this discussion with adjusted OPS+, it would not look well for Chipper's argument. The Big Hurt is third active with 157 OPS+ and Manny fourth with 154. Chipper ranks tenth at 144, Sheff tied for 11th with 143, and Junior much further down the list at 15th with 139.

In runs created, Chipper again ranks tenth, but this time, all four players rank ahead. Thomas is second among active players (though first if you think Bonds is done), Junior third, Sheff fourth, and Manny fifth. However, runs created is a counting stat which automatically gives prejudice to those who have played more games. Here is how they rank in RC/G.

Thomas - 8.9
Manny - 8.9
Chipper - 8.3
Sheff - 7.6
Junior - 7.5

Much like OPS+, the stats seem to suggest that Thomas and Manny are clearly the best offensive players and Sheff and Junior don't belong in this discussion.

Let's go further...with baseball prospectus. EQA adjusted for all-time has Chipper with a .318 EQA. Manny trumps that with .327 and Thomas breezes past it with a .336 EQA. Griffey is at .309, but Sheff makes a minicomeback in the discussion with a .317.

How about Wins Above Replacement Player? Chipper is sitting pretty at 102.7. Manny again goes past that with 113.1, Thomas clicks in at an impressive 133.0, Junior at 132.4, and Sheff is at 124.2. But lets do a seasonal average. I took out brief cups of coffee like Chipper's 1993 callup and four plate appearances.

Manny - 7.56 WARP3
Chipper - 7.32 WARP3
Thomas - 7.00 WARP3
Junior - 6.62 WARP3
Sheff - 6.19 WARP3

We finally see Chipper's position give him a lift and surpass Thomas, whose stats are muddled by the fact he was a 1B and DH his whole career. But Manny's numbers still reign supreme. I think it's fair to say Chipper was as good or better than Thomas and definitely better than Junior and Sheff, but I'll keep Manny as better than Chipper. It's not a huge difference, but Manny is one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time. Yes, Chipper ranks just as high as switchhitters go, but there are many more right-handed hitters to rank against.

But fun stuff nonetheless.

Early May Report

2008-05-04T10:28:00.003-04:00

The Braves continue to drift along, a game under .500, and without much (get ready, Joe Morgan) consistency. However, when you look at the injuries, poor play, and lack of real definitions in the bullpen, the fact that the Braves aren't four or five games under .500 is a damn accomplishment.

Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.

The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.

The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.

Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.

-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.

-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.

-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.

-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.

-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.

-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.

-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.

-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.

Hey...it's already April 20th!

2008-04-20T13:35:00.003-04:00

Been awhile. My apologies. Hopefully in a month or so, my posts will have a sense of regularity to it. As it is, it'll remain a weekend-only blog for the most part and that is the best you can expect right now. Oh wells.

The Braves are about to start the third game of a three game set with the Dodgers in which they've already taken the first two. The pitching for all its negatives has been pretty good. Third fewest hits, fifth fewest runs, least homers, and fifth most K's. How long that keeps up despite the asinine amount of injuries is unknown.

The hitting has been pretty good, too. Ranks in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG. The OBP should come up as players like Teix and KJ settle into their more normal numbers.

So, why are they still a game under .500? Well, baseball is shitty like that from time to time. They are three games under their expected win-loss record of 11-6, which is fourth behind Arizona, St. Louis, and New York in the NL.

Really, there isn't that much to be worrying about? The injuries are unfortunate, but only Moylan's injury seems serious. Soriano, Glav, and Hampton should return within the next few weeks.

I know a lot of people want to sound the alarm. KJ's not walking enough, Diaz looks surprisingly mortal (and playing himself into a platoon), the bullpen isn't good enough, Mark Kotsay is sure to get hurt, and Bobby's picking his nose again. But really, I don't see a lot to be worried about just yet.

---

Last year's Governor's Cup Champs, the Richmond Braves, are off to an 11-6 start. Top prospects Brent Lillibridge and Brandon Jones are both struggling, though Clint Sammons is posting an OPS near 1.000 and Josh Anderson is doing his thing. Jo-Jo Reyes is dominating AAA batters. 14 scoreless innings with five hits allowed, five walks, and 18 K's. Phil Stockman is looking good too.

Isaiah Kaaihue is off to another bad start for Mississippi, mustering a .516 OPS. The team ERA is well over 5.00 for the struggling M-Braves.

The M-Braves will likely get Thomas Hanson soon. Hanson, currently with the Pelicans, has allowed one unearned run in 22 innings. If that's not impressive enough, he's allowed five hits, walked five, and struck out 32.

Rome has a lot of talent, but the hitting and pitching is both struggling to get going. They may struggle this year, but I feel as far as prospects go, this is the best team the Braves minor leagues will support this year.

Where We Stand

2008-03-29T17:08:00.003-04:00

Well, the season opens up tomorrow night in DC for the Braves and they just finished up their spring training season with a rain-shortened victory over the Indians. Overall, this spring, the Braves finished around .500 if that means anything to you. It shouldn't, but you know how some people can be. Not specifically you, reader, though maybe you are part of the problem. If so, stop.

Simply put, the Braves seem to be right about where they were before spring training opened. Jair Jurrjens did what he needed to, Mike Hampton was able to make some starts, Jeff Bennett's support continues to be strong, and Kotsay's back is still not in 50 million pieces.

Some surprises, of course. Gregor Blanco beat out Josh Anderson, Brandon Jones, and Joe Bochard (or Chard) for the fourth outfielder spot, which was good to see. Javy Lopez was cut and retired and the second catcher spot has yet to be resolved with Corky Miller and Brayan Pena both breaking camp for the moment. KJ and Esco will man the first two spots in the order and Kotsay will just have to deal with the 8th spot.

The Braves found some sad team to take Tyler Yates (thanks Pirates) and got a gift in Ruben Gotay. Seriously, Luis Castillo isn't that good, New York. Gotay might be defensively challenged, but he ain't a bad middle infield hitter. He always scared me when the Braves faced the Mets.

In the end, what this team is right now is hardly a sure contender. There are a lot of question marks. But I believe there are less this year than last year and anytime you can say that, it's a plus.

Mid-March strikes

2008-03-16T11:25:00.002-04:00

-The weather is starting to warm up, my nephew has little league practice today, and stupid people are trying to say stupid things about subjects they have no business writing about. Yep, it's mid-March.

-The Tennessee Journalist has this bit on why the Braves will finish third in the NL East this year.

Renteria was criminally underrated during his time in Atlanta and Jones has been the Braves most imposing offensive threat for almost a decade.

Now, Renty may have been criminally underrated, though he did go to an All-Star game and got paid handsomely in his two years with the Braves (though the BoSox helped out). But the Jones they discuss is Andruw. Even if you attempt to make the argument that Chipper's injuries hurt his standing in a discussion like this, a simple look at baseball-reference's franchise index shows that over the last ten years, the leaders in OPS are as such.

Chipper Jones - Five Times
Adam LaRoche, Andruw Jones, J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Andres Galarraga - One Time

I mean, jeez, it's not even close. In the same article, he says the Nationals could finish .500, but the Braves are going to rue the day they allowed Andruw Jones go.

-On the other side, a real sports rag called the Sporting News did a bit on the Braves for their seasonal previews. Though wins as an individual stat is pretty weak, this was still pretty funny/sad.

Jurrjens, 22, was 3-1 in seven starts with Detroit last season. The Braves got three wins in 20 starts from Anthony Lerew, Jeff Bennett, Mark Redman, Lance Cormier and Jo-Jo Reyes combined during their turns as the No. 5 starter.

Ouch.

-The Bleacher Report says the Braves pitching might be the best in the NL East. It's a reasonable claim, one that can only be disputed by the Mets. The article seems to think the bullpen is the one real possible weakness, though it doesn't bother talking about the pen. It still scares me, I won't lie.

-New York Daily News is reporting Bobby may not retire. Yawn.

-Horacio Ramirez was by the Mariners earlier this week, making John Schuerholz's fleecing of the M's for Rafael Soriano all the more comical.

-Four players have already been cut from the pitching battles. Charlie Morton, Phil Stockman, Zach Schreiber, and Matt DeSalvo were sent to Richmond. DeSalvo and Stockman had the best chances of sticking with the team coming into spring training, but didn't impress the Braves enough. Say good-bye to Diory Hernandex and Javier Guzman, too. Both will likely get a chance in Richmond to start the year, but so far, have only been reassigned to the minor league camp.

-In spring action, the Braves added four wins, two ties, and two loses in the last week to their resume. They have the Cards today and tomorrow. Here is a run down on some of the competitions.

-Fifth Starter Battle (assuming Hampton's healthy enough to take one spot)
Buddy Carlyle - 11 K/1 BB, 7 R in 10 innings
Chuck James - 0 K/0 BB, 0 R in 2 innings
Jair Jurrjens - 5 K/6 BB, 5 R in 11.2 innings
Jo-Jo Reyes - 7 K/7 BB, 7 R in 7 innings

Think Jurrjens has this sowed up right now. Chuck James has already accepted possibly going to Richmond to start the year. Buddy is Jurrjens' main competition right now since James needs to build up his arm strength and Jo-Jo is horrible this spring

-Last Two Bullpen Spots (if Soriano, Moylan, Acosta, Ring, and Ohman have spots)
Colter Bean - 2 K/2 BB, 1 R in 3 innings
Jeff Bennett - 0 K/4 BB, 5 R in 5 innings
Blaine Boyer - 9 K/2 BB, 1 R in 9 innings
Francisley Bueno - 3 K/3 BB, 3 R in 7 innings
Chris Resop - 9 K/1 BB, 2 R in 8 innings
Jeff Ridgeway - 3 K/5 BB, 2 R in 6.1 innings
Tyler Yates - 3 K/6 BB, 8 R in 5 innings

Boyer is a keeper and Resop has the inside track for the seventh spot. Bueno, a minor league starter, has emerged as a bit of a contender and is getting the work, showing the Braves think he can do something. I can't see Yates breaking camp with the club.

-Backup Catcher
Javy Lopez - 4 for 23, 3 EBH
Corky Miller - 3 for 13, 1 EBH
Brayan Pena - 5 for 17, 0 EBH
Clint Sammons - 3 for 13, 2 EBH

Javy is being given the at-bats to win the battle for sure. Pena's edge in solid hitting is lessoned by no power and his defensive problems.

-Final Two Backups (assuming Thor and Prado have their spots sowed up and at least one of these spots will go to a outfielder)
Josh Anderson - 9 for 33, 2 EBH
Gregor Blanco - 7 for 16, 2 EBH
Joe Borchard - 10 for 29, 8 EBH (team high)
Brandon Jones - 6 for 33, 1 EBH
Brent Lillibridge - 9 for 40, 3 EBH
Jordan Schafer - 10 for 33, 4 EBH

I am a bit surprised by the at-bats Schafer has received, but I don't think he'll unseat anyone. Just figured I would add him. Lillibridge has the fact that nobody on this list can play shortstop and Prado has had only limited experience there in the minors. As good as Chard has been, he is in the right field mold and the Braves need a decent center fielder to caddy Kotsay. I say Lillibridge and Anderson more or less fall into their spots, though Anderson hasn't been that bad.

Thor on the way out?

2008-03-08T17:20:00.002-05:00

Thor is like my last corkscrew swinger left so that would be weird, but anyway, it appears the Braves are shopping the Canadian to anyone willing to listen. Manitoba might be. Shanks and DOB both report, according to MLBTR that Thor is being shopped for a reliever. Here is your team-by-team look.

Arizona - Little Chance - Conor Jackson is very much in the same mold except he's actually producing. What Jackson produced last year is similar to Thor's minor league production.

Baltimore - Pretty Decent Chance - Likely to start at first for the O's is Kevin Millar, who was hardly that productive last year. The O's need youth and potential, which makes it also tough for them to give up a decent young arm. For instance, high-end guys like Radhames Liz and Garrett Olson are pipedreams. However, James Hoey might be a possible target. His major league numbers are pretty bad, but his minors aren't that shabby.

Boston - No Chance - They already have the Greek God of Walks and Casey at the Bat, not to mention Big Papi.

Chi Cubs - No Chance - Lee and Ward in the fold.

ChiSox - No Chance - Konerko and Thome just keep a third ugly white guy from joining the team. In a pinch, Swish has a first baseman glove.

Cincy - Little Chance - If Scott Hatteberg was hurt and Joey Votto sucked, maybe they would be interested.

Cleveland - Little Chance - The Indians have a glut of players capable of playing first, including Andy Marte. Just don't see them adding another, but stranger things have happened.

Colorado - No Chance - They already have Helton and a scramble for at-bats with Nix, Stewart, and Atkins.

Detroit - Little Chance - The Tigers have Carlos Guillen at first and Mike Hessman behind him. Thor could be useful there, but I can't see the Tigers taking the bait. They still have to find at-bats for Brandon Inge around the field/DH.

Florida - Decent Chance - I actually think Florida might be interested. Mike Jacobs has failed to reach the .800 OPS plateau each of his first two full seasons. They might be willing to go in a different direction.

Houston - No Chance - The Astros have Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum, capable backups, behind Lance Berkman.

Kansas City - Little Chance - Dayton loves former Braves farmhands, but he already has enough first baseman's to figure from. I think Ryan Shealy will get another chance.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - No Chance - Too many already.

Los Angeles Dodgers - No Chance - Loney FTW

Milwaukee - No Chance - There's this fat guy at first they like.

Minnesota - No Chance - They don't need more unproductive infielders.

New York Mets - No Chance - Technically, they could use him to backup Delgado. But, um, they wouldn't trade for Thor.

New York Yankees - Little Chance - Barring injury, they are set with Giambi at first and Damon DHing. But tomorrow could be completely different.

Oakland - Little Chance - Too many damn 1B/LF types as it is. Hey, maybe we can get Devine for Thor...

Philly - No Chance - They currently have Helms to backup Howard.

Pittsburgh - No Chance - Dammit, we shouldn't have given them LaRoche.

San Diego - No Chance - Adrian Gonzalez and Tony Clark anyone?

San Francisco - Pretty Decent Chance - The Giants are in a state of transition and you have to think San Francisco would be reasonable. Dan Ortmeier has been moved to first to compete for the spot with Rich Aurilla. Yay. Patrick Misch, a lefty, would be reasonable and probably would get a second lower minor league player. Another lefty with much higher ceiling, Jonathan Sanchez, has had injury problems. Justin Hedrick and Dave McKae wouldn't be horrible either.

Seattle - Decent Chance - Maybe Thor could push Sexson to play a little better. A young fireballer like Kameron Mickolio would definitely be reasonable to the Mariners. The M's best options are already in the bigs and likely to be tough to get. Ryan Rowland-Smith wouldn't be too terrible.

St. Louis - No Chance - They have some guy named Pujols...

Tampa Bay - Little Chance - If they didn't have such a tough time finding at-bats for everyone already on the team, I would think they would be willing to go after Thor.

Texas - Decent Chance - Ben Broussard is their frontrunner with Salty maybe getting a game or two a week there. Teix's former team could use Teix's current backup. Eric Hurley, A.J. Murray, and Daniel Herrera would all be decent finds for Thor.

Toronto - Little Chance - Lyle Overbay is a good player and AL teams struggle to add a straight backup to the team at first, but the Blue Jays might want the Canadian.

Washington - No Chance - As much as the Nats love the Braves' trash, first base is one of their positions of strength. Well, as much strength as Dimitri Young and Nick Johnson present.

Yay, can we get Matt Franco back too?

2008-03-08T11:07:00.003-05:00

This fun piece is from the Philadelphia Daily News.

Wes Helms got another start, this time at first base, against the Rays yesterday. He's among the team leaders with 20 at-bats this spring, as the Phillies continue to showcase a player who doesn't seem to have a role since Pedro Feliz was signed as a free agent.

It's believed that the Braves and Marlins have shown at least mild interest. Helms went 0-for-3 yesterday, dropping his Grapefruit League average to .200.

I am really hoping for a four-for-one deal...maybe Brandon Jones, Lillibridge, Hanson, and Rohrbough for Helms since we just love throwing away young guys and this deal could cause a riot.

And seriously...riots are cool.

I'm alive!

2008-03-07T17:21:00.000-05:00

-It's been forever since I last posted. I had a fun week of vacation and the computer was excluded from my vacation, though alcohol was not. Yummy.

-Anyway, I have a whole lot of articles to sniff through, but I'll just focus on the last few days for this little spiel. First, the Braves are 6-3 after a loss to the Tigers today. I don't have the stats from that loss, which was 9-6, and spring training records are worthless, but hey, it's something to report.

-Joe Borchard is killing the ball. All five of his hits are for extra bases. Dammit, I hate when bad players have good numbers. Esco is a cool 8 for 16 while Tyler Flowers, Jeff Francoeur, Javy Lopez, and Mark Teixeira share the team's four homeruns. Scott Thorman, Brian McCann, Brent Lillibridge, and Brandon Jones are all kind of sucking so far.

-On the mound, Jair Jurrjens is doing everything possible to nail down a spot. In five innings, he has allowed just one earned run and batters are hitting .118 off of him. My Buddy hasn't given up a hit or a walk in four innings. Glav and Resop are tied with a team-high four K's.

-At some point, the Braves signed Jonathon Rouwenhorst from the Angels. Semi-old lefty who has just kind of sucked his whole career.

-In news that surprises no one, Mike Hampton is hurt. Seriously, how in the world can anyone expect him to really do much?

-The Braves nearly tossed a no-hitter yesterday in a 4-1 win over the Tigers. Colter Bean, a name I know only because he was the Yankees closer for years in my Out of the Park video game, allowed a two hit single in the ninth. Good job dumbass!

-Barry Bonds to the Braves? According to Phil Rogers, "The best fit of all for Bonds could be in Atlanta, however, with a hole in left field and Bobby Cox to keep him in line." The hole in left field, hmmm. Matt Diaz, whatcha think?

-Well, I'm back! w00t, w00t

While it hovers over 30 here, people are playing baseball there

2008-02-23T12:16:00.004-05:00

-Been a cold week at times for us Virginians, but alas, no one cares. Not even the weather Gods, who chose to surround Virginia with wintery mix, but never actually enter Virginia to give us some. Bastards.

-The Hattisburg American out of Hattisburg, Miss. is ready to call the NL East for the Braves. Jason Munz writes, "Braves over the Detroit Tigers in the 2008 World Series in six games." This is problematic because Munz, while he does write about the Braves to some degree, doesn't actually indicate the x-factor, the je ne sais quo that gets them over the hump. Just says there are reasons to be optimistic because the Braves have brought older people back. He does talk up Glav, but man, when did the quality start ever become some big number? This is monster cherrypicking in my opinion. A quality start is defined as six innings and three or less earned runs. This is nice, but it's hardly that noteworthy.

-McCann gets the DOB treatment with an article that while promising, seems to be regurgitated from last year. A year ago, the buzz was that despite such a huge year in 2006, McCann wanted to be a more complete player in 2007. I hope to see it this year and focusing on his diet/exercising might be a first step to getting better. To me, he just needs to work on his footwork.

-Speaking of Braves catchers, here is DOB again with an article on the faux battle for the backup catcher. This idea is to use Javy as a pinch hitter and Diaz as the emergency catcher. Now...that's going to be fun. I think as long as Javy stays healthy and doesn't completely suckass, he has the job. That's not a competition, though.

-THE MOST PROMISING part of the article was that Bobby said this. "Either way you go with the first two guys, it doesn't matter, with Kelly and Escobar." Aww, I love you again, Bobby. And shut up, Chipper. Mark Kotsay shouldn't be hitting second. You are a terrible manager!

-By the way, Chipper's mouth was yapping about the proposed two-horse race in the NL East. However, according to Chipper, the problem the last two years hasn't been pitching, Andruw Jones, or anything close. It's the fact that the Braves young guys don't have a "killer instinct." See, whereas Chipper's KI is worthy of a Hall of Fame induction, Francoeur and McCann just don't have enough KI to get the team to the next plateau. Kelly does, but he's Texan and its expected. Moylan doesn't because Aussies are not a war-loving people. Maybe Chipper should strap them down like they did that monkey in 28 Days Later and show footage of teams with lots of killer instinct until they are infected with enough KI to start a dynasty.

-Elsewhere, it seems the Braves are becoming the critics choice to be the NL East spoiler. In Macon, they also talk up how forgotten the Braves are, despite the fact they have been there the last two years and still retain beaucoups of hitting talent, not to mention a good pitching core that can compete with the better staffs in the NL.

-Speaking of pitchers...Matt DeSalvo is already impressing Bobby. You know Bobby...he absolutely loves those all-guts, no stuff pitchers. Jair Jurrjens is also getting a bit of play. First, the fantasy sports blog SportsJudge has a bit on Jurrjens being a bigger prospect than many might believe. I think that's accurate. His minor league numbers seem to give me the idea that he'll be a productive pitcher over the next dozen or so years. I don't think he will be dominating, but much like good pitchers, he'll be productive. Also on Jurrjens, here is a bit on him getting a shot with his favorite team. I didn't know he was from Curacao.

-If you need yet more info on Jordan Schafer, here you go. I really think he's getting blown up a bit too much, but maybe that's me desperately trying to keep my expectations low.

-Oh, the Braves East (Nats) signed Odalis Perez, who I believe becomes the first to complete the triangle with playing with the Braves, Braves West (Dodgers), and now Braves East. Congrats Odalis.

Busy week, ya know?

2008-02-16T19:24:00.006-05:00

Baseball is finally getting fun again.

-Spring training previews are up and running. The Sports Network actually considers Chris Resop an addition to talk about. That's scary. Basic premise - Braves will improve this year because of the acquisitions of old Braves. Not that abnormal, I suppose.

-Elsewhere, Dugout Central has their very own preview. Much more informative and includes the very fun "The aforementioned Jurrjens could be getting starts as early as May, or whenever the annual Mike Hampton injury occurs." I'm glad we got such a joke as a starter. I think it's very fair to say that the Braves are, yes, headed in the right direction, but this might not be their year. Still not convinced that this staff is as deep and talented as people might think.

-Spring Training 08 has a theory that Matt DeSalvo is the best non-roster invitee to make an impact on the Braves. Consider the lists of NRI includes Javy Lopez, Jordan Schafer, and Brent Lillibridge, the choice of DeSalvo is a interesting one. I doubt he will get more than five innings myself.

-Here's a little didy about Josh Anderson. Is "didy" even a word? Not according to my spell check, but if it's not a word, than just what the fuck was John Cougar Mellencamp singing about? Didy isn't a word...ditty is, however. Learn something new every day.

-There's been a slew of Bobby Cox articles, mostly about his proposed retirement. Bowman and DOB both touch on it, so really, it's just one brain. I frankly think this is it and everyone is kinda in on it. There's that, "win one more for the Coxer" feeling to this season with Glav and Javy back in the fold. My sources tell me Sid Bream is coming out of retirement to compete with Thor for the backup first base job.

-DOB's article also said the Braves have brought back Damian Moss. You know he just wants to attach himself to Glav's hand again.

-Jayson Stark gave Glav his own article, too. A lot of people can't stand Stark, but I think he's merely a pompous ass and as one myself, I see a lot of pluses in that. But what the hell is up with that pic? It scares me.

Thing is...all the words in the world are worthless if Glav can't turn a few things on its head. He needs to prove that he do basically what he did two years ago. Drastically improve his K/9. Last year, it was 3.9. There is no amount of "well, take out those last few starts" arguments that avoid one truth. Glav was lucky to be having a "good" year until September. His defensive ERA also ballooned.

His projections are not promising. The Bill James ones are always the most positive, but his Marcel is just not good enough. 4.50 ERA, less than 100 K's, less than 200 innings. These things will keep Glav from being significantly helpful to the Braves, especially in the way Stark projects.

-DOB also talks up the Glavine subject, but he provides some other nuggets on Jeff Bennett, Mark Kotsay, and Jeff Francoeur. Bennett must have Bobby's support because he keeps getting mentioned. I'm dieting too so maybe I can be the fifth or "sixth" starter as well. Francoeur is blowing up and Kotsay has a beard. Thanks for the big time insight, DOB.

-Um...go Braves?

Yeah, um, KJ shouldn't get overlooked

2008-02-11T10:34:00.000-05:00

Friday, DOB penned an article on Kelly Johnson.

K.J. ready for more: With the moves made this offseason — Tom Glavine’s return, Yunel Escobar replacing Edgar Renteria at short, Mark Kotsay replacing Andruw Jones in center — and contract discussions regarding Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur, it’s been easy to overlook 2B Kelly Johnson.

Can you really overlook 6.7 WARP or 15 win shares from second base?

But I’ve got a feeling that’s going to change soon. As many of you already understand, this is another Texan (nod to Hoss) who can flat-out hit. And until his late-season difficulties with backhanded plays, Johnson played steady defense at second base in his first season at the position after moving from the outfield.

I've been told that making backhanded plays is the toughest thing to learn how to do well. So KJ's struggles are easy to expect. You simply can't just go to a position and have everything go ok.

Do most folks realize how good his offensive numbers were? Think about it — K.J. missed the 2006 season for elbow surgery and had little more than a half-season of big league experience before batting .276 with 26 doubles, 10 triples, 16 homers, 68 RBIs (while hitting mostly 1st, 7th, 8th or 9th) and a .375 OBP.

As a leadoff man, he had 29 extra-base hits (six triples, nine homers), 40 RBIs and a .372 OBP in 306, which ranked among the leadoff OBP leaders in the NL.

And why in the world was he batting 7th or 8th in the second half season? Can we be slightly critical of Bobby on that one, DOB? Let's face it. Kelly Johnson was the second or third best hitter the Braves had last year for the full season.

In the 2008 Bill James Handbook, the statistical guru projects Johnson to rack up offensive totals in 2008 that compare favorably to Yankees star Derek Jeter.

James projects Johnson will hit .282 with 30 doubles, eight triples, 19 homers, 76 RBIs, a .384 OBP, .473 slugging and .857 OPS.

James projects Jeter will hit .312 with 35 doubles, two triples, 15 homers, 76 RBIs, .385 OBP, .443 slugging and .828 OPS.

Kelly Johnson is going to start a fragrance, isn't he? "KJ. The scent. The feeling. The overlookiness."

Some fans (and others) assumed after Johnson was dropped from the leadoff spot last summer, and after he was moved from full-time to platoon duties with Escobar, the Braves must not be too high on the converted outfielder. Not so.

Actions speak louder than words, DOB. According to Bobby Cox and the Atlanta Braves last year, Kelly Johnson was not a significant part of the team in the second half. It is fair to say that the Yunel Escobar's emergence, Johnson was just shit out of luck. But he was too good and with too high of a ceiling to sit on the bench.

Now, we have the Bowman propaganda machine going out there and saying that KJ is likely going to bat 8th next season. The Braves have a good offense.

They just need to use it properly.

We want that guy?

2008-02-10T01:57:00.000-05:00

This tidbit from the San Diego Union-Tribune:

According to Towers, the Braves expressed interest in trading for Single-A pitcher Matt Bush, even after Bush had reconstructive elbow surgery that likely will sideline him for the 2008 season.

If you don't remember Bush, he was the lampooned number one pick by the Padres in 2004 and got a monster signing bonus...and then the Padres moved him from shortstop to the mound. Fun stuff, huh?

The Pads passed on several bigger prospects, including Stephen Drew and Jared Weaver, who have already established themselves, to draft Bush. He got into a fight and was suspended and once he got onto the field, hit like shit. After continuing to be a below-average hitter into this year, the Pads moved him to the mound and he looked actually pretty decent at rookie level. 16 K's in 7.1 ING. But, after he ruptured a ligament, he had to have Tommy John and won't pitch until 2009.

And the Braves are looking to buy low, it looks like. Yay.

Closer and Closer we get...

2008-02-09T17:31:00.000-05:00

-For the record, "Long Road To Ruin" by Foo Fighters is pure awesomeness.

-Beyond the Boxscore has a great overview on the impact, if any, injections truly have on the team's ability to come back and beat the other team. Last year's evidence suggests no real answer to the question, "Does getting ejected cause a team to get a spark?" This is one of those "numbers just won't tell you anything" discussions. Why? Well, it's simple. Anytime, and Chipper Jones mentions it, the evidence is found in "it seems we get a spark" from something, what that really means 10 times out of 10 is that you only remember the positives, not the negatives and in this case, it doesn't seem there is much motivation is watching your manager get ejected.

Not to say not ejected is the right way. I love that Cox battles for his players. It helps out the clubhouse. I just don't seem to think getting ejected is a significant spark. For instance, it may get a team's leaders to say, "he was pissed with us and we need to do better." That may have long-term consequences. See Lou Pinella's tirade last year against the Braves. His team, for whatever reason, played better in the weeks that followed. Maybe, just maybe, it was due to the ejection.

All that said...who the hell knows?

-At a blog of a Phillies fan, A Citizen's Blog, ranks the top three NL East staffs. Mike seems convinced that the Braves will have the best staff in the division. I don't agree, but I think he underscores a truth that is setting up. The Johan Santana trade makes the Mets better, but does it make them that much better? The Phils have Brett Myers/Cole Hamels, the Braves have Smoltz/Hudson, and the Mets have Santana/Pedro. Name-value alone, the Mets have the better one-two punch. Truth has it up in the air. I do think the Mets/Braves have better depth than the Phils.

-AJC has been busy. First, there is Mark Bradley talking up the Braves pitching. Not a whole lot here as Bradley's not DOB/Bowman. But he does seem to indicate, with the possible pushing of Frank Wren, that Chuck James may not even make the 25-man roster this spring. That is actually a bit newsworthy.

-DOB provides the 10 keys to success for the Braves. I think he was running out of shit when he said Mark Kotsay had to be a catalyst. Though...if he's pushing KJ lower in the order...he better damn well be a super duper catalyst.

-Elsewhere, Chipper Jones filed in on a DOB article with some, at times, jerky sounding remarks. Here is the direct link to where it begins.

-Um, that's all for now.

-I said that's all dammit.

BaseballProspectus Top 100

2008-02-03T13:04:00.000-05:00

Here are the Braves prospects on the list...

17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves

According to Kevin Goldstein, the Braves offensive future is packed, especially in the outfield. I think that's fair, but I think he underestimates the pitching a bit, especially Tommy Hanson and Cole Rohrbough. Both, I feel, are big prospects. Obviously, I feel that way about Hanson because I ranked him first in my top 30. The more and more I think about it, Rohrbough may have the higher ceiling. There may not be a prospect in the system with more control, strikeout ability, and a penchant for inducing groundballs.

But overall, this system remains barren of the biggest prospects in the minors. I think this list backs that up. But it continues to have a bunch of solid minor leaguers that other systems would love to have.

A little Teix note...

2008-02-03T12:14:00.000-05:00

From about half-way down on this page.

Marked for departure?
When the Braves signed first baseman Mark Teixeira to a one-year, $12.5 million deal, it may have just put off the inevitable loss of him in free agency. Teixeira, a player the Red Sox tried to deal for when he was in Texas, will likely command a salary of $20 million per year. His agent is Scott Boras, who couldn't get the Braves to bite on a long-term deal for Andruw Jones. The Braves should contend in the NL East, but if they don't, there could be a trading-deadline deal involving the slugging first baseman.

First off, Andruw was not in the long-term plans so the fact Boras couldn't get the Braves to "bite" is hardly some big surprise. But the Braves invested five prospects in Teix and two months of Ron Mahay. That would seem to indicate that Teix is in the long-term plans for sure.

On the other hand...Teix is hard to picture as a long-term fixture for the Braves as much as he is easy to picture as a long-term fixture. Consider that after this year, the Braves have $36M already figured in for next year _if_ the options for Smoltz/Chipper was either vested or picked up, which is very likely. So add $20M to that and you are at $56M with room to still get a player.

But I am warming up to the idea of letting Teix go and spend that money on starting pitching. In Matt Diaz, the Braves have a capable replacement to Teix. While Diaz won't match Teix in power, he will be good enough to keep the position from being a weakness. Factor in Kala Kaaihue and if he can ever reach his potential, the position becomes a strength. And if you are concerned that Diaz at first would be a problem because of power, the Braves will be getting plus-power for the position at second.

Though...having Teix long-term would be pretty sweet.

Pitchers and Catchers, Oh My!

2008-02-02T20:36:00.000-05:00

-Camp Roger is upon us and DOB is there. Apparently, the fact that Peter Moylan has tattoos is the first story that needs to be discussed. The Braves may or may not be able to get by the Mets this year, but we got a tattooed sidearming Aussie freak.

-Huddy talks about the Mets new pitcher. “He’s pretty good, but he’s not unbeatable. He got hit around a little bit last year.”

While Santana's H/9 last year was 7.52, slightly more than his 7.34 career mark, I wouldn't say he got hit around a bit. Especially if I was like Timothy and my H/9 last year was 8.87. Santana is so much more than pretty good. The only pitcher in baseball that can even come close to Santana is Jake Peavy. Timmyboy, just don't give him any kind of motivation to beat the Braves. He doesn't need it.

-Two outfielders are bigger, according to DOB. Jeff Francoeur kind of scares me. I really think people like to talk about the 30 HR mark too much. Francoeur did not reach that mark last year, but he was so much better than he was the previous year. If he focuses on being a bigger power hitter, I'm worried. The other outfielder is Brandon Jones. I know most bloggers like Mac, Jenny, and Lauren can't fathom why Matt Diaz shouldn't be the everyday guy in left, but if Brandon Jones is getting a chance, I see why Diaz shouldn't be the everyday starter. Jones is going to be really good, I feel. If he adds more power to his rapidly developing game, he could add another big bat.

-If Teix doesn't sign...move Diaz to first fulltime. Just an idea.

-Other stuff...Blaine Boyer is getting a lot of press here and there. DOB talks him up a little as well. I think he has a leg up on any contenders for an open spot in the pen....Thor is still getting love from Bobby....Lillibridge has a future with the team. I really feel he'll be a starter sooner rather than later.

-Mike Hampton looks set for camp. Mac might be right after all about how big of a roll Hambone can play next year if he can just be healthy. But Wren is fooling himself or just taking a good PR class this winter to say the Braves rotation is nine-deep. Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, Hambone, James, Reyes, Jurrjens, Bennett,...Zane Smith?

-What the hell is with all the talking about Jeff Bennett? I'm going to have to use that damn tag more often it seems.

-The Braves signed another Aussie. He kinda looks like a serial killer. He plays shortstop. That's...um...about all I know.

-Damn, it's nice to get baseball back into the blog.

Shanks talks, I listen

2008-01-27T12:37:00.000-05:00

Don't ask me why so many people with ties to the Braves are on my shitlist. Bowman, DOB, Terrence, and also, Bill Shanks. He writes for The Braves Show and asks users to pay for a lot of their material. I hate that on principal. He also wrote a book blasting moneyball philosophy despite the fact that he knew about as much about moneyball as I know about Harry Potter books. It's about a kid who does magic and has a ring that others want, right? Or am I mixing them up?

Anyway, surprisingly free, here is Bilbo's Could 'Mike & Mike' be the keys this season?

This article has nothing to do with Greenie or Golic, nor even a drunken Dana Jacobson. Any of the three would have been an improvement.

Baseball fans all over the country are talking about what their favorite team must do to win this season. There are a lot of sentences that start with 'if,'and every team has a lot of ifs three weeks before spring training starts.

I especially like the "If the Braves were a kind of tree, what kind of tree would they be?"

Skipping down...

Hampton hasn’t pitched in a big league game since August of 2005. He was really good that season, perhaps the best since he had joined the Braves two years earlier. Atlanta finally had the Mike Hampton that had been such a big winner in Houston and New York, but then things spiraled out of control.

Define "really good." Hampton was...decent. Over a dozen games, that is. I, like many others, remember than thumping the Braves gave the Astros where Hampton tossed shutout ball and homered, but if you are going to call a guy "really good," the numbers must support it.

They don't, by the way. A 3.50 ERA which is close to the way he pitched (3.88 DERA) and a -2 stuff rating. Meaning...he wasn't that good. He was just there.

Hampton had to have Tommy John Surgery in September of 2005, which killed his 2006 season. Then when he was coming back last spring, Hampton tore his oblique muscle in his side, which would have kept him out until May. But as he was rehabbing that injury, Hampton started to have additional elbow discomfort. It was then learned Hampton had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, and surgery in April knocked out his 2007 season.

Yay, insurance money on his contract. Boo getting him in the first place.

Fans were ready to see how Hampton would do in his latest comeback, but then on Thanksgiving Day two months ago Hampton strained his hamstring. The sad thing was he actually looked good on the mound before the injury. His delivery looked great for someone that had missed so much time, and his pitches looked surprisingly crisp for his first ‘official’ time on the mound.

Why wouldn't the fans be ready?

I think what you meant to say is that fans were excited to see how Hampton would do...

But that's not true either.

You wonder how much better the Braves would have been if Hampton had been able to pitch in 2007. They had so much trouble in the rotation after John Smoltz and Tim Hudson that we can only imagine how many more games they might have won last season if Hampton had been healthy. The Braves painfully learned the importance of a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, a role Hampton might have thrived in if he had been able to pitch.

What would Hampton had been worth to the Braves? Let's say he pitched like he did in 2004. He would have been worth about two more wins above a replacement player (WARP) than Chuck James and James was worth about two more than Buddy Carlyle. In this best case scenario, a healthy Hampton would have been worth three-to-four wins. Not enough to get the Braves in the playoffs.

But a healthy Hampton, behind Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine, could make the rotation very strong. Before you laugh, remember how well Hampton pitched right before he got hurt. If he’s anywhere near that level, as a number four starter, the Braves would be in great shape.

That was laughable, Bilbo. The chances are minimal that Hampton will provide much more than James could. Now, having James and Hampton healthy and taking their turns in the rotation DOES make it better. But again, you use a phrase like "very strong." If that rotation is very strong, just what is the DBacks staff of Webb, Haren, and Co?

What if Hampton could at least come back and make 15-20 starts? Forget about him being ready on Opening Day for a moment. What if he could at least come back sometime in June and then contribute to the rotation for the rest of the season? That would be like adding a front-line starter in a trade on Deadline Day. It could make a huge difference in the Braves’ chances to get back to the postseason.

Now, Hampton's a front-line starter?

In Bilbo's world, words are just things with no meaning.

He goes on to talk about Gonzo, but the Hampton stuff just bothers me too much to continue.

The most boring time of the year...

2008-01-26T23:12:00.000-05:00

...at least, for baseball, is upon us. All the free agents that matter have new homes. Even Octavio Dotel finally signed. Catchers and pitchers haven't reported yet, spring training games are still over a month away, and the Super Bowl seems boring yet again. Dammit.

-Marky ol' boy did his little mailbag shindig. Teix...probably not a likely member of the Braves even in Bowman's POV. That's pretty telling. Other than that, the whole article provided little knowledge. But then...that's the official Braves site for you.

-Some chap named Buck Belue for the Savannah Morning News said the Braves should at least reach the 90 win plateau. The obvious needs to be said. Buck Belue is not a real name. The guy's "paragraphs" are a sentence or two at best. Journalism school must have been optional for this rag.

The boys of summer are heading south soon, and this dude won't be far behind. Major League Baseball's spring training is one of my favorite times of the year, despite the uneasiness of wearing shorts and showing off the pasty white legs. Hey, you've got to start somewhere, right?

Dude? If Buck Belue is your real name, you're probably a drag queen. But then, a penis is a penis, I guess.

Tom Glavine's back in a Braves uniform and is penciled in as the third starter behind John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. The goal: give the Braves 200 innings. Tom reached that magic number last year as a 41-year-old. The Braves are betting he'll do it at 42.

The bullpen would love that.

The bullpen may also love long walks on the beach. The simple fact is that 200 innings is nice, but the Braves need QUALITY, not quantity, because essentially - Glav is about it. If he puts up a 4.50 ERA over 200 innings, the Braves don't win 90 games.

The days of Andruw Jones roaming centerfield for the Braves have ended. Why? Well, the Braves didn't feel like over-paying for his services.

So, Wren swung a great deal to bring in veteran Mark Kotsay from the A's. It makes sense. Kotsay is a pro's pro. He plays a solid outfield, can hit and is a team guy.

What makes this deal so wonderful is this: Wren got the A's to pick up close to $5 million of his $7 million salary.

"Wren swung a great deal?" Are you applying for Mark Bowman's job? Are you Mark Bowman? What the hell? Anyway, know how Wren got the A's to pick up that much salary? By sacrificing two of my top ten prospects for the system. Screw that.

Kotsay can hit high in the lineup or down at the bottom. No problem. Just glad to be here playing for Bobby Cox. Here's a guy who knows what it takes to be successful at the plate.

He told me recently that if Cox hits him 1 or 2, the focus is to get on base. If Bobby has him hitting 7 or 8, the goal is to drive in runs.

Keep your fingers crossed that his back holds up. If so, you won't miss Andruw so much.

Yeah, because he's going to be a super get on base guy with his .330ish OBP or a great run producer with his .390ish SLG. Jesus, this kind of crap really kills me.

The bullpen looks pretty settled heading the camp. Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan and Tyler Yates get the ball late. Wren went out and got three lefthanders: Royce Ring, Will Ohman and Jeff Ridgway. Look for two to stick with the big league club leaving spring training.

Yay...Tyler Yates. And Wren didn't get Ring. Schuerholz did. You may have missed it while you were pressing enter after needlessly beginning yet another paragraph/sentence.

Jeff Bennett is this year's long-relief guy. Manny Acosta, Jair Jurrjens and Blaine Boyer battle it out for a spot. And Mike Gonzalez is hoping to be back in the summer to provide a big boost down the stretch.

Bennett is this year's long reliever, but Manny Acosta has to battle for a spot? My brain is leaking.

The batting lineup is something that Bobby Cox likes to keep under wraps, but here is my best guess of what the card will look like come opening day: 1-Yunel Escobar, 2-Kotsay, 3-Chipper Jones, 4-Mark Teixeira, 5-Jeff Francoeur, 6-Brian McCann, 7-Matt Diaz, 8-Kelly Johnson.

You're best guess is probably right. Why does that make me sick?

-Elsewhere, Raffy Soriano agreed to a contract to avoid arbitration. The Braves also bought a year of free agency by getting a two year pact. Terms are $2.4M this year, $6.1 next, $500K signing bonus. The huge drop in salary is a bit worrisome, but not a bad deal in this market.

-Baseball Musings did a projection of the Braves offense this year.

* Best: 5.37 runs per game
* Given: 5.18 runs per game
* Worst: 4.77 runs per game

Braves will be fortunate to improve on the 5.00 average from last year, but it's possible, especially if KJ is used in the upper part of the lineup.

-Finally, another rag says Julio Franco is still a Braves player. Why do you hurt me so, Braves?

-I am a lot more bothered after writing this than I was before I started...

O noes~!

2008-01-19T15:05:00.000-05:00

Mac has already commented on this masterpiece of vomit-inducing literature, but I must comment as well.

Kotsay has spent a majority of his career hitting in either of the top two spots of the batting order, and this year should be no different.

Last year with a fairly bad A's offense, Kotsay started 21 games in the first two spots, 32 in the final three spots. I guess they knew not to just put Kotsay up there and hope for the best. Maybe Kotsay was hitting that high because he was producing. Maybe he should produce before he hits that high again. Or...ya know, whatever.

My early guess is that he'll man one of those two spots with Yunel Escobar and that Kelly Johnson will bat seventh or eighth.

I have a feeling I can beat Marky Mark in baseball strategy. I don't know why...

Some believe Escobar would be a solid run producer in the middle of the lineup. You can't argue that.

Who are these people? IsoP in the majors of .125, IsoP in the minors of .118. There, I just argued it.

But at the same time, you can't dispute the value he brought while hitting .351 with a .400 on-base percentage in 34 games as the leadoff hitter last year.

The Braves don't have the speed demon that teams like to put at the top of their lineup. But with Escobar and Kotsay, who owns a .337 career on-base percentage, they have two guys who can provide regular run-producing opportunities for Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira.

In the time that Kotsay has posted that .337 OBP, the leagues that he had played in posted a .333 OBP. So, essentially, you could put Mr. Dynamic and Joe Average ahead of Jones and Teix and they will have regular run-producing opportunities. Maybe by hitting a lot of solo homeruns...

Johnson produced a .372 on-base percentage in 76 games as the leadoff hitter last year and might have at least shared that role with Escobar if Kotsay hadn't arrived. But my guess is that the Braves will put him in the eighth spot with the hope that he'll get on base consistently and give pitchers numerous sacrifice opportunities.

Oh jeez, I can already see the Bobby Coxian slant in this. Hmm...we could score more runs by having people on for Jones and Teix OR we can hope that a pitcher sacrifices KJ to second with one or two outs to maximize scoring chances for Mr. Dynamic and Kotsay. Hmm, what should we do?

By the way, you put the guys in the top of the lineup who are the best at getting on because that means they will get more chances.

As long as his back remains healthy, I think Kotsay will bat second and Escobar will once again be given the chance to be the consistent catalyst that he was down the stretch last year.

And the Braves will be a middle-of-the-pack offensive team.

Let's Meet...Jeff Ridgway

2008-01-19T13:53:00.000-05:00

Hi Jeff. Welcome to the organization. Unfortunately, I can show no enthusiasm for your arrival as it cost two players when you, well, kinda suck. No biggie. I mean, not everybody is going to be good at baseball. Hell, I suck. But I'm not costing any team two players, no matter what intangibles I have and could bring to a new team. Though...they are many. I can eat a lot of starburst sours for instance. Not everyone can, but me? I rock at it.

Jeff - who for some reason, I keep wanting to call Larry - is a veteran of three major league games and 201 minor league outings. When the Rays drafted him, they tried him as a starter. After three nondescript years (plus a year in the middle that was gone because of injury), they moved him to the pen in 2004, subscribing to the baseball edict that if you are a lefthand reliever, you are worth, at the very least, two middle infield players.

Ridgway seemed to battle injuries in '04 and '05 before making some headway with a fairly solid '06 campaign. In a career best 50 games between Montgomery (AA) and Durham (AAA), Ridgway posted a 2.79 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He added more K's than innings pitched as well. After he failed to break camp with the Rays last year, he attempted to repeat his numbers at Durham and while he was not _as_ good, he wasn't too horrible either, posting more K's than innings again, a 3.06 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP. Control was a bit of a problem as he walked 4.2 men per nine innings.

In September, he made his major league debut. Against the Angels, he entered in the sixth with a runner on third and one out. After a single and a triple, he was out of the game with the line - O ING, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO. Only a stupidass bunt attempt by the Angels with the runner on third (leading to a double play after the bunt was caught) kept the other run from scoring.

Four days later on the 21st, he faced Boston. It did not...go well. After entering in the ninth with the Rays down by three, he gave up a walk and hit a batter. In stepped Big Papa, there went the ball. Three-run homer and he was removed. Second game gave him the line of O ING, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO, 1 HBP, 1 HR. Not good.

Five days later, he got the Yankees. That's just mean. With the Yanks already up 9-2 in the sixth he entered to face the top of the lineup. A pair of infield singles by Damon and Jeter preceded a single by Abreu to bring in Damon. Finally, Ridgway got his first out as AL MVP A-Rod popped up, but another single by Posada brought in Jeter. Ridgway was replaced, but Robinson Cano singled in Abreu against Juan Sales to add to the troubles. Third game gave him the line of 0.1 ING, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO

So...we have 0.1 ING, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO, 1 HBP, 1 HR. He faced a grand total of ten people, got one out and that, strangely enough, was Alex Rodriguez.

Welcome to the Braves...I guess.

Yikes

2008-01-19T13:17:00.000-05:00

-Joey Devine was bad enough. A tough price to pay for a guy like Mark Kotsay, who may not even give you 130 games. But you know, to pay $2M for Kotsay, it wasn't that bad. But to add Jamie Richmond, my tenth ranked prospect, is just a horrible situation. It just makes me sad.

-Elsewhere, the Richmond Braves will be no more. A sad day for Virginia sports, but Richmond's inability to get something done was the main problem here. There was no reason that Richmond couldn't have put together a plan for a new stadium that, while used primarily for the R-Braves, could also host college baseball tournaments and state high school baseball games. In addition, it would have clearly attracted a AAA All-Star game. But no...dumbass Richmond at its finest.

-The Braves have signed all but one of their arbitration-eligible players and only one of those signed got more than I suggested, which kind of surprises me. Teix got $12.5M, Gonzo accepted a slight raise after his injury ($2,362,500), Infante signed for $1.4M, and Yatesy settled for $800K. Not in the article, but Matt Diaz also signed for $1.225M. That leaves Rafael Soriano, who wants $3.4M and the Braves basically lowballed him with a $2.4M offer. Will likely settle in the middle ($2.9M).

-Wren made another curious move, sending Willy Aybar _and_ Chase Fontaine for Jeff Ridgway. I won't miss Aybar. I think he has a lot of potential, but after last season, a new city and new team could be of great use for him. But why now? Why include another guy who I included in my Top 30? And why settle for a non-prospect? Ridgway is a 27 year-old southpaw with three games of major league experience - all last year - in which he recorded one out and was charged with seven runs. For the math impaired, that's a 189.00 ERA. Yay.

This is the guy that cost two players? Ridgway might be a serviceable LOOGY, but wouldn't it have made more sense to, um, wait till spring training, see what Aybar could do, and then trade him? And why the hell did it also take Fontaine, who while a problem in the field with the glove, is a hitter? Seriously, I just don't understand this. Most will tell you...it's not a big deal. Losing these two have a minimal chance to hurt the Braves. But why sell low at any time?

-Finally, the trade of Aybar and the news that Omar Infante was hit by a pitch and might miss most, if not all of spring training, may open a spot on the bench for Brent Lillibridge. The way it's looking, if the Braves keep Thorman, something is really messed up since they couldn't have been bothered to find a spot for Aybar.

-Oh wells. Time to start a meet and greet with Ridgway.

Financial Update

2008-01-13T12:38:00.000-05:00

Since I went over a preview of the roster, here is an update on the money situation.

My first table goes over the eight players signed to a contract for next year. By and large, this is the big eight the Braves have to cover.

Player	Salary
Glavine, Tom	8.0M
Hampton, Mike	8.0M
Hudson, Tim	13.0M
Jones, Chipper	11.0M
Kotsay, Mark	2.0M
McCann, Brian	0.8M
Ohman, Will	1.6M
Smoltz, John	14.0M
Total	58.4M

Alright, so $58.4 million already needs to be covered. Now, arbitration is where this becomes fun. Here are my estimates. My arbitration list is based on Marky Mark's column here. I'm leaving Kelly Johnson off because I do not feel he will gain Super 2 status, but including Omar Infante, who is arbitration eligible.

Player	Salary
Diaz, Matt	1.4M
Gonzalez, Mike	2.7M
Infante, Omar	2.0M
Soriano, Rafael	2.8M
Teixeira, Mark	11.5M
Yates, Tyler	0.8M
Total	21.2

With the eight guaranteed contracts and the six arbitration estimates, the Braves are sitting at $79.6M. That number could easily rise if my estimates are conservative, which they likely are. It could get up closer to $85M, largely depending on Teix's contract for next season. The Braves still have to fill out the roster with 11 players. If we average $425,000 (slightly more than the minimum), we get $4.675M.

So, according to my best guess, the Braves are currently sitting on $84.275M with it possibly climbing toward $90M. Before the offseason, that $90M threshold was looked at as a possible destination. Looks like the Braves may reach it after all.

25 man roster...

2008-01-13T00:12:00.000-05:00

Just spitballing here, but here is a preview of what is looking like a tight fit for next year's roster. Locks are in bold.

Rotation (5)
-John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, Chuck James, Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes, Mike Hampton

Bullpen (7)
- Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, Royce Ring, Will Ohman, Chris Resop, Tyler Yates, Phil Stockman, Blaine Boyer, Manny Acosta, Zach Schreiber, Jorge Campillo

Catchers (2)
- Brian McCann, Javy Lopez, Corky Miller, Brayan Pena

Infield (6)
- Mark Teixeria, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Willy Aybar, Scott Thorman, Brent Lillibridge, Wes Timmons

Outfield (4)
- Jeff Francoeur, Mark Kotsay, Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, Joe Borchard

IF/OF (1)
- Aybar, Thorman, Lillibridge, B. Jones, Anderson

I have 18 of 25 spots pretty clinched. I think Aybar, if healthy, is in and Thorman has a good shot of getting a spot because there is no true 1B after Teix on this team, though I think a 1B-only backup is really kind of dumb. I also think Brandon Jones has a damn good shot and of course, there is Josh Anderson. Would the Braves have five outfielders? Maybe if Diaz is the backup 1B, a position he has played in the past. It's what I think they should do, anyway. Anderson, Jones, and Aybar/Lillibridge. Oh, and I nearly added Javy, but I'll go along with this faux catching competition.

The Braves NEED some help in the bullpen. There ain't much out there, though. Looks like Wren can't think he's done yet.

Ohhhhh, shitsticks!

2008-01-12T19:04:00.000-05:00

According to...well, a multitude of sources, but let's just say...according to ESPN, the Braves are going to deal Joey Devine to the Oakland A's for Mark Kotsay and $5.325 million of the $8 million Kotsay is owed next year.

Now, here's the thing.

Mark Kotsay isn't that bad. He's not that good, but he's not that bad. He's so-so. In a Family Guy nutshell, Kotsay is best compared to purgatory. He could put some league average numbers, lately he hasn't. He used to be a solid defender, lately he hasn't been.

Kotsay is not wanted by other teams. Why would they bother, ya know? Most teams have center fielders by now.

So why the, and forgive me for saying, why the fuck would the Braves trade Joey Devine for Mark Kotsay?

Oh, the money yes. And maybe the Braves think Devine won't be ready to a major league contributor this season and he's out of options. But still...that's pretty weak reasoning.

Thanks Atlanta.

Now I gotta wish Jordan Schaffer gets good real quick.

Strangest Stat Ever

2008-01-12T13:24:00.000-05:00

This from the TorontoSun.com -

Cambridge's Scott Thorman hit 11 homers for the Atlanta Braves this season and had the longest average homer in the NL at 409 feet

Ohhhh, the LAH. How the hell didn't that make it to the back of his baseball card?

Blaine Boyer Speaks!

2008-01-12T11:47:00.000-05:00

Choptalk got Blaine Boyer to write a column for them. Apparently, they needed some filler. The column was then put up at the Braves site.

In general, a simple look at what Boyer went through injury-wise and how he is feeling right now. He says he'd be okay with starting or relieving. Actually, I think he wouldn't mind being the bullpen catcher the way his last couple of years went.

Mark Kotsay More and More Likely

2008-01-11T16:30:00.000-05:00

According to DOB, it's nearly a done deal. DOB says he just talked to Kotsay and there will be an MRI and all that, but it looks like a mid-level prospect and the A's picking up a bunch of the check.

Liking it, Frank. Liking it.

(hattip to Bravestud at Chopnation for the link)

1:10 AM Update: The Braves official forum seems concerned it will be Joey Devine. I personally doubt it. I am thinking more along the lines of the players I included in the 21-30 top prospects. Gregor Blanco could be interesting to Billy Beane, but I think it will be J.C. Cuevas or Charlie Morton. Possibly Zach Schreiber or Moises Hernandez.

Another name I've read...Brent Lillibridge.

Ha.

By the way...

2008-01-11T13:22:00.000-05:00

Mac at the uberly good BravesJournal.com has started his yearly player analysis. If you missed it, he started with McCann and is moving his way over the infield now.

Elsewhere, my second part of my prospect list is up here.

CF and other stuff

2008-01-11T11:34:00.000-05:00

-Happy Friday to ya. Since Andruw Jones left, center field has remained a big question mark. Well, according to DOB, the Braves are possibly considering Mark Kotsay and Corey Patterson. I have spoke on Patterson often because I can't possibly fathom why people continue to talk him up when his career OBP is under .300. Not a typo, kids. Kotsay, on the other hand, is a perfect addition on paper. You look at what he brings to the table and while it won't aw you, it certainly will be productive.

.282/.337/.415 career, .264 career EQA, formally an above average CF.

The last three years have been trying for Kotsay, but he is obviously the best player for what he brings, for how long the Braves need to commit, and money invested (surely Oaktown would pick up half of the check or sent a grade B prospect to give the Braves some kind of compensation for Kotsay's salary). I am not saying I would do it...but dammit, I'm considering it.

-MLB Trade Rumors talks up Mike Cameron to the Braves. As I have said, I am back-and-forth on Cameron. He's not as bad as some make him, not as good as others make him. But he truly is a poor man's Andruw who is faster on the basepaths. Not a terrible direction to go. He also as a suspension over his head. Eiii...

-A couple of 2006 Braves signed new contracts. Marcus Giles, who spent last year with the Pads, signed with the Rockies for a measly minor league contract and spring training invite. Braves fans have spoke of Giles often with the steroid label. I think it is probably accurate, though he was one of my favorite Braves. It's pretty sad how his career has tapered off despite the fact he is just 29. Elsewhere, Chris Reitsma reups with the Mariners. Here's hoping he has success.

-Sean Livingstone of the USA Today penned a organizational report. There is literally nothing in this report that is all that interesting. But read it if you want a cheat sheet on everything you already know.

Links A'Hoy!

2008-01-05T18:09:00.000-05:00

Lots of random links since the beginning of the new year.

-The Herald Sun out of Australia has an article on Peter Moylan out. Your basic "God, this Aussie is ever so cool" article with movie references. Sorry Lauren, not much new info here.

-DOB talks about Braves FanFest and the players that will be, but also touches on Jeff Francoeur. Nothing really amazing, just a look back at Francoeur and nothing on a possible contract. I wonder if this season is the season Francoeur signs or drags it through arbitration first.

-Ohhh, a DOB reference _AND_ a Bowman one. Marky boy is out with a look at the Braves catchers. If Bowman is the propaganda specialist for the Braves, Javy Lopez is the backup catcher as I said. Some have commented that Javy's going to have to *earn* his shot, but even if he's outplayed, I believe he has it clinched.

While McCann is certainly an adept offensive catcher, he has room for improvement from a defensive perspective. His .987 fielding percentage ranked second-worst among NL catchers. In addition, only Milwaukee's Johnny Estrada and Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba had a worse caught-stealing percentage.

While I agree he badly needs to improve, what the hell does fielding percentage tell you about a catcher? I don't mind people not using stats or hating stats all together. But if you choose to use them, at least use reasonable ones. Caught-stealing percentage is decent, though you can't ignore the pitchers' impact on things.

Still, McCann's knowledge of pitchers allowed Braves pitchers to produce a 3.90 ERA when he was behind the plate. That figure ranked first among all NL catchers.

Ahjesus, not catcher's ERA. Pick a stat that tells you something ABOUT the catcher's ability, Mark.

-Scott Proctor's Arm, a blog on the Yankees, has this tidbit. "Matt DeSalvo also signed a minor-league contract with the Atlanta Braves." Baseball America confirms it. I'd do a Meet and Greet, but not a lot to meet. He had a couple of decent games with the Yanks last year, but is all guts no talent, it seems.

-Oh, my first ten prospects of my Top 30 prospect list is finally up at chopnation.

-And buh bye.

Congrats FJM

2008-01-01T17:04:00.002-05:00

The great folks at FireJoeMorgan.com have won Busted Coverage's 2007 Sports Blog of the Year. Presidential elections never elect the right guys, but Busted Coverage got it right with this one. They beat the very solid Metsblog.com. I like to both of them...so...um, I am super smart.

More HOF Talk

2007-12-31T22:11:00.000-05:00

Not doing anything for New Years except for drinking random things, watching West Wing, and reading baseball stuff. Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus and often appearances on ESPNews released his HOF ballot, if he had one.

He follows my Blyleven and Raines picks and adds, "however, Raines produced value for his teams, so much so that he’s not only a deserving Hall of Famer, but like Blyleven, one who raises the standards for entry." I like that one. I think HOF voters don't look at that enough. The Hall should be tough as hell to get in. We should make it that and our voting is the way to do that.

I don't agree with Gossage or McGwire, moreso McGwire than Gossage. I just can't make myself vote for that roided up freak.

The Murph got a great line, though. "If you can’t stand out among a group of Hall of Fame nominees, it is likely that neither you nor the other guys are Hall of Famers."

Couple links for your New Years Eve

2007-12-31T12:13:00.001-05:00

Ran into a few links via google. One old, one newer. First, the old one.

Some blog called Variables Don't; Constants Aren't came out with the top ten pitching prospects in the Braves' system. This was their list.

1. joey devine, RHRP
2. kris medlen, RHRP - august 2008
3. jamie richmond, RHSP - mid 2009
4. tommy hanson, RHSP - late 2009
5. anthony lerew, RHSP
6. jo-jo reyes, LHSP - late 2008
7* cole rohrbough, LHSP - 2010
8* jose ortegano, RHSP - 2012
9* edgar osuna, RHSP - 2012
10.jose ascanio, RHRP

Embarrassing. Kids, if you don't know the minor leagues at all, don't try to judge a system you don't even know follow. Granted, when this person made the list, Jair Jurrjens was not in the system, but where is Jeff Locke? Steve Evarts? Julio Teheran? Oh, and the asterisks are the blogger's way of saying "these guys don't belong on the lists, but I didn't have any better options.

Rohrbourgh and Ortegano are routinely on top ten lists for the entire organization. Sensibly, that means they should be in the top five of a pitchers-only list. My list, which I hope to get started this week (sorry!), has Rohrbourgh (3) and Ortegano (8) in the top ten pitchers mentioned on the list and I only have Ortegano so low because he hasn't got into full season ball just yet.

BAD list. ANTHONY EFFIN LEREW AT NUMBER FIVE?

Seriously, wtf mates?

Elsewhere, the Richmond Times-Dispatch had this random article on Yunel Escobar. Maybe "Welcome to the Jungle" should play when he bats.

Okay, bye.

Slow week, random links

2007-12-30T18:47:00.001-05:00

The week between Christmas and New Years is dead time for most of the country, baseball included. Even if you work, you aren't really "there," ya know? I only worked two days last week and I am not afraid to say I should have been paid for maybe a half-day. Maybe.

-Bobby Cox got some love from Jeff Passan's New Years Resolutions article found here.

I resolve to get ejected for all the right reasons, which include balls and strikes, bad calls on the bases, close plays at the plate, umpires breathing wrong, butterflies flapping their wings, Joe Morgan mispronouncing a name, a keyboard being used somewhere in America and photosynthesis occurring.

-I can talk all day about Cox's abilities as a manager in the game, but one thing I respect about him is that he fights for his players moreso than any other manager I have ever seen. He's not behind his players so much as they are holding him back. Also, check out the Tommy Lasorda link. Kinda racey. Don't worry, Tommy. This Tommy enjoys some girl-on-girl porn, too.

-Speaking of odd things, Oscar Villarreal got a two-year deal with an option for 2010 from the 'Stros. $2.85M. I guess it's not a terrible signing, but Villy really isn't good enough to deserve more than a one-year deal and an option. You can always do better than Villy and you never want to be tied down to him. He's like the girl you settle with because you gotta be with someone, ya know.

-Mark Bowman slurped on the Murph for awhile. Cox, John Schuerholz, and Pete Van Weiren all guest-star in this Made-For-Hallmark tale about a good guy who could hit homers and for some reason, that wasn't enough for the Hall. Fact is...the Hall of Fame is for the best of the best of the best. Murphy is not one of those guys.

-Bowman delegated a duty to some random person, who wrote up the Braves Year In Review. Oddly, Peterson Orr didn't even get mentioned.

-The Chop Chick (she's a man, baby!) put together a Farm Report for the AJC. The article is...hard to read. That's an understatement. I have brain leakage after reading about Boyer and Devine.

-Boyer and Devine would have been a great title of an 80's show.

-Finally, I missed this, but on December 17th, the Braves signed Jorge Campillo to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Campillo is 29 and a veteran of eight major league games with one start. When he came out of the Mexico League three years ago, he was one of their best pitchers. Decent, not great, minor league numbers. Horrible, or horrid, major league numbers. Long shot, but I like these type of players. Maybe McDowell can get him going.

Happy New Year, children.

My HOF Ballot

2007-12-24T15:22:00.000-05:00

I got to thinking...why bitch about who the BBWAA votes for when I don't even give my vote on the matter? Well, here it is. According to the HOF's rules, "Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played." You can vote up to ten players, but do not have to vote for more than one.

First Year Options
Brady Anderson
Rod Beck
Shawon Dunston
Chuck Finley
Travis Fryman
David Justice
Chuck Knoblauch
Robb Nen
Tim Raines
Jose Rijo
Todd Stottlemyre

Back Again
Harold Baines
Bert Blyleven
Dave Concepcion
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell

Of the newbies, only Tim Raines really stands out. He was one of the best leadoff men in the game when he played, but because he played during Rickey Henderson's time, Raines never quite received the press. His adjusted OPS+ was 123. His most comparable players according to BR include five current HOFers (and one very comparable reference to Lou Brock). On numbers alone, he's in as far as I'm concerned.

But then, he is an admitted cocaine user who used to slide on his stomach because he didn't want to bust the cocaine veils he kept his back pocket. Integrity clause speaks up.

The players who are back again are definitely more interesting. Starting with Harold Baines. Here is where electing undeserving players haunts you. Tony Perez, who was elected in 2000, has a quite similar career to Baines. Perez has the postseason numbers and played a "real" position. Hmmm, first base. Nevertheless, if you are willing to vote for Perez, you are willing to vote for Baines.

Bert Blyleven was a great pitcher and because he pitched in markets that weren't big on baseball, he is still out of the HOF. Get him in.

Davey C sucks, Joe.

Andre Dawson had power and speed and a great arm. Unfortunately, he lacks the career numbers nor was he that great of a player.

Rich Gossage was a good player. However, I am a bit on the fence about getting this guy into the Hall. Compared to his peers, his numbers aren't that incredible. But the Bruce Sutter decision hurts any argument here.

Tommy John and Don Mattingly are neither deserving, nor that interesting to keep around. But the Yankee writers don't agree.

Mark McGwire. Depends on whether or not you penalize on integrity.

I hate Jack Morris because of one game he pitched in 1991. Luckily, his adjusted ERA+ is not good enough to warrant an argument here between my bias and my knowledge.

Dale Murphy. Good player, one of the best of the 80's offensively, but just not a player with enough good baseball qualities and stats to get elected.

Dave Parker is almost in the same department with Baines. If you vote for Perez and Baines, don't you vote for Parker?

Yet again, Jim Rice is back and with a shot. He was incredible over a six year period covering 1975-80. However, after 1980, Rice did have four years where he was 30% or better than the average player. Most comparable player is HOF Orlando Cepada. I think I gotta keep him around.

Lee Smith. I once had a discussion on Smith in which I was called a racist. I don't mind closers going to the HOF, but I want them to be dominating. Smith's WHIP of 1.26 is good, but not dominating.

Alan Trammell has very good numbers for a shortstop, but I think he's a bit under Barry Larkin and I'm still not sure Larkin is a HOFer.

So...my HOF list?

1. Blyleven
2. Rice
3. Raines

I am going to give Raines a little credit for one, admitting to his usage, and two, cleaning himself up. I am going to keep Baines and Parker out because one wrong (Perez) does not make a right.

Let's Meet (Again)...Javy Lopez!

2007-12-23T13:18:00.000-05:00

OMG! It's Javy! Look at that butt! That's a tight butt.

Ugh.

Anyway, in case you were living under a rock with Jimmy Hoffa (tell the bitch he still owes $20 on the Cowboys/Giants game), Javier Torres Lopez signed with the Braves on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training that was essentially the same kind of deals the Braves have given Julio Franco in the past. Here's an invite but you made the team before you even came to spring training. Shhh, it's a secret.

Javy spent last year sitting on his ass. Well, no, he was working out. Getting slender! Pilates, I bet. Maybe he has an eating disorder. Or maybe the steroids were wearing off. Who knows these things?

Javy had gone to the Rockies spring training, but they saw all they needed of their young one, Chris Ianetta. I think the spelling is right cause I ain't looking it up. They cut Javy, who was not so much in demand. Fancy that. What a fall from grace.

In 2003, Javy's last season with the Braves, he was voted fifth in the MVP running for one of the best offenses the Braves have ever had. He would have ranked in the top five in OPS had he had enough at-bats. He received a start at catcher for the All-Star game and his 43 homers are the best total by a catcher in franchise history.

He parlayed this into a three-year deal with the Orioles and posted a solid 127 OPS+ in his first year with the O's, but slumped the following year to 15 homers with injuries. The Orioles made a move for Ramon Hernandez and Javy spent most of his 2006 time with the Orioles as their DH. After a trade to the Red Sox, he was horrible as he tried to help them replace Jason Varitek, who had been hurt.

There was once a time where Javy was a poor man's Mike Piazza in the NL. But the shelf life of catchers is small and Javy is now in a position where he could backup the current franchise catcher for the Braves, Brian McCann. The chances are good provided he stays healthy because right now his competition is not much to write home about.

Corky Miller did a solid job, but has always and will always be a fringe player. Clint Sammons could use more time and Brayan Pena is a horrible defensive catcher.

Then again, so is Javy. He was never that good of a catcher and knee injuries really took him down. His steroid years saw him gain a little bounce back (kinda expect that), but once he got his contract and MLB testing became more prevalent, we saw his catching detoriate once again. Can't blame the O's for going for a catcher who can actually catch.

Now, where he is now is unknown. He could be a better defensive catcher simply because he is off the roids and has had a year to build up natural strength and agility. However, I don't expect much.

Glavine Lovefest!

2007-12-23T13:04:00.000-05:00

Now the AJC just loves themselves some Glavmeat.

Family ties brought Glavine back to Atlanta

What the frick did Alex P. Keaton have to do with Glavine? Well, they answer that in the first paragraph.

During his five years in New York with the Mets, Tom Glavine stayed up late after games, watched Tivo until 3 or 4 a.m. and slept until noon.

So, essentially, Glavine was watching a lot of Family Ties while he was a Met. Something about Keaton's Reagan love brought him back to the conservative Georgia. And Glav, you were once from Massachusetts. The shame.

The one-year, $8 million contract he signed with the Braves last month was $5 million less than the Mets' offer. It was a financial sacrifice Glavine was glad to make.

The Mets didn't make an offer, Carroll Rogers. They were on the hook to pay Glavine $13 million anyway. Glavine DECLINED an option and received a $3M buyout. So, really, Glavine will make $11 million next year, Carebear. Seriously, I hate when they let the nonbaseball people write for the AJC. Though, Terrence ain't much better, I guess.

I am in the Christmas spirit.

Let's Meet...Joe Borchard!

2007-12-22T15:09:00.000-05:00

Joe Borowski seems to have JoBo to himself, but maybe we can this guy Chard. I like that. Sounds like a speed metal band. Tonight at the Civic Center, CHARD!!!!!

Chard just turned 29 around Thanksgiving this year and has been in professional ball since he was the 12th overall selection of 2000. For funsies, the 15th overall selection was Chase Utley. Adam Wainwright and Scott Thorman were 29th and 30th. The ChiSox gave him $5.3 million in a signing bonus so that Chard would give up football (he was Stanford's QB) and Chard would finish 2000 with 27 games at three different levels and batted .311/.388/.456.

After an .885 OPS the following season at AA, Chard dealt with injuries while playing AAA ball in 2002, but still hit .272/.345/.498 and made his major league debut. Getting into his first game on September 2nd against the Blue Jays, Chard hit a two-run homer in his second at-bat. In 37 trips to the plate, however, he struck out 14 times. This would continue. He slumped to a .695 OPS the following season at AAA and his struggles continued through another cup of coffee at the end of the year.

In 2004, Chard righted the ship and hit .266/.332/.495 before getting his first real shot at the majors. His struggles continued to the tune of .174/.249/.338 over about 200 at-bats. After another season at AAA and a small cup of coffee in 2005, Chard failed to make the ChiSox team out of spring training in '06 and was traded to the Mariners because he was out of options. He lasted about a month in Seattle before the Marlins picked him up off waivers.

And that is where Chard has been for the bulk of the last two seasons. After some promise in 2006 with a .230/.322/.400 year after the Marlins got him, Chard was horrible last year, hitting .196/.287/.313 and getting demoted to AAA.

Ultimately, Chard's biggest problem is contact. His K rate in his three years that he batted the most:

2004: 28%
2006: 29%
2007: 34%

When you are missing so much, you won't last long in the majors. However, this was Chard's biggest problem in the minors too so the upside here is minimal.

Chard could have been compared to Jeff Francoeur at one time. Chard walked more, Francoeur made more contact, but both players were rich in natural talent. Now Chard has an opportunity at the current moment to make the most of his portential. After a minor league deal and a spring training invite, Chard joins a good situation for him. He will have to show he can play center, but the Braves have a huge hole there. If Chard can somehow lesson the K's, made more contact, and play some defense, he may get another chance.

Don't count on it, though.

Another week in...

2007-12-22T13:44:00.001-05:00

-The Mitchell Report still garners some attention. The House is planning more hearings and reporters are stealing my shtick. Gene Sapakoff of the The Post and Courier had this to say about the Braves.

Base On Balls: The Atlanta Braves. They received a free pass, with no current organization members named. But think of the Mitchell Report as a highway patrolman. Not every speeder on I-26 gets stopped, just the ones who zoom by active radar guns. Braves fans should be glad baseball's radar gun was pointed at the New York Mets clubhouse and not the one at 755 Hank Aaron Drive.

-As I said in my previous post, the lack of proof on the current Braves may have more to do with their location than anything.

-On the other side, a player not mentioned in the Mitchell Report suddenly got a deal after it. Javy Lopez, who we all suspected, signed a minor league deal with the Braves with an invitation to camp. And man, Marky Bowman skates around the suspected steroid usage, too.

The initial glance at the current Lopez could cause some to feel like they've ventured into the past. Gone is that bulky, muscular frame that he carried during his final years in Atlanta.

It has been replaced by that slender, athletic build that he possessed when he first introduced himself to Braves fans nearly 15 years ago.

-Gee Marky, I wonder why. You mean now that he isn't doing steroids, he suddenly looks more like a man and not like he was chisled out of granite? Wowzors, that's a new one there. How come writers have to do this? "Oh, he looks more slender and athletic than he did." That happens when you depend on more natural ways of playing a game that used to have a 35 years-of-age ceiling.

-A couple of former Braves caught on with new teams. Ron Mahay picked up $8 million over the next two seasons from the Royals. This one did not make a whole lot of sense, I gotta say. A one year deal for a reliever when you benefit more with trading him is sensible, but the Royals aren't going to be a frontrunner this year. Grabbing Mahay at that salary and committment is a bit much, Dayton. Elsewhere, The Supreme Nacho Burrito signed with Houston. Paronto never got a second chance in Atlanta after his demotion, which probably says something about his attitude.

-The Braves also picked up OF Joe Borchard on a minor league deal with an invite. I like this despite Borchard hitting .205/.284/.352 over 301 major league games. Always give a former major prospect under the age of 30 a chance if you are investing so little.

-Mark Teixeira had knee surgery. Nothing to see here.

-Finally, SI.com's Jon Weisman went over the best staffs in the NL and placed the Braves fourth behind the D'Backs, Dodgers, and Brewers.

• Above-average (6 points): John Smoltz, Tim Hudson
• Average to above-average (4): Tom Glavine, Chuck James
• Mystery (1): Mike Hampton
• Up-and-coming (2): Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes
• Below-average (0): Dan Smith, Jeff Bennett

Comment: Two keys to Atlanta's rotation, Smoltz and prodigal son Glavine, are each more than 40 years old, and Hampton hasn't pitched in a regular season game in more than two seasons. Jurrjens and Reyes are up-and-coming but unproven. And yet, as you'll see, this group qualifies as the best group of starters in the NL East.

-I'd say it's a fairly good study. I give him a lot of credit for not overranking Glavine and really lumping him with James, which makes sense. I still think we need a pitcher, but there is some depth here and that is a plus. Weisman ranks the rest of the NL East as such: Mets (8th), Phillies (10th), Marlins (15th), Nats (16th), I think the Mets and Phillies could both be pushed up 2-3 spots.

Busy Week, eh?

2007-12-16T10:17:00.000-05:00

-Well, I am back. The Mitchell Report was released to wall-to-wall coverage by ESPN, but it has been less than satisfying. On one end, the sheer randomness of players mentioned (big stars, bench players) is kind of scary, but we expected that, right? What bothers me is that the players do have a legitimate beef to be concerned about the amount of evidence cited. However, this was not a criminal investigation, but a view at the usage of steriods and HGH in baseball. In that, it was probably fairly successful. One player cited, Andy Pettitte, has admitted to usage. For two days.

“If what I did was an error in judgment on my part, I apologize.”

If? Um, Andy, IT _SO_ WAS! While I think HGH is way overblown as an effective performance enhancer, your usage is still clearly wrong. For a fun bit, check out Pettitte's talking up God, as reported by Fire Joe Morgan via BeliefNet, here.

-Thankfully, no current Braves (*ahem* Chipper?) made the list, but twelve former Braves did. You have to take this with a grain of salt, however, because the Mitchell Report's star witnessess both worked around the New York players more than any others so if you were a roided up freak not calling New York home, you were a bit more safe. The former Braves to make the report are: P' Paul Byrd, Darren Holmes, Kent Mercker, Denny Neagle, John Rocker, and Mike Stanton; C Todd Pratt, 1B's Ken Caminiti, Matt Franco, and Wally Joyner, and OF's David Justice and Gary Sheffield. Byrd, Holmes, and Sheff were all apparently using or at least purchasing drugs during their time as Braves. No Marcus Giles, Javy Lopez, or Jesse Garcia, but again - they didn't ask the Braves clubhouse guy.

-Justice did add to his dickdom. I should patent that word. When approached about his own steriod usage, Justice named names as if he was about to get killed. He still gets reported and now, his names are reported too. In the 20's, he would be sleeping with the fishies by now.

-The voice of clarity is Jeff Francoeur. He essentially read and thought about the Mitchell Report for a day and then went to play golf because it didn't mention him. Such a needy bastard.

-Other stuff happened this week. I have a weak source to comment on here, but a livejournal post here reports two things of interest. One, the Braves might be seeking Damian Miller, a perfect backup catcher. Good defender and has some pop. Would make for a great backup, but with a few teams still looking for a starter behind the plate, he will be looking for starting time until that is cleared up. Also brought up was the rumor that the Braves might be interested in Steve Finley. God, I just threw up in my mouth.

-Willie Harris and Peterson Orr are Nats Orr is getting closer to Canada and signed with a former Canadian team so you know he's psyched, but Harris was less thrilled of leaving Atlanta. I love how the article implies that Harris "tailed off?" because of less playing time. Dumbass homer Willie articles.

-Finally, DOB is back to report that the Braves are quite interested in former Rockies closer, Brian Fuentes. However, he is due at least $4.5M in arbitration, his final year of arbitration, and the Rockies have no need to trade Fuentes, when makes his package tough to benefit the Braves.

-Um. Merry last week before Christmas.

Let's Meet...Will Ohman!

2007-12-08T21:12:00.000-05:00

Oh-Man!

The Ohman!

Willy Oh!

Whatever you want to call him, say hi to Will Ohman. A veteran of 220 major league games, Ohman has been a steady part of the Chicago Cubs pen, especially over the last three seasons. He is a stereotypical LOOGY, which means that if he is used correctly, he could be an asset. If Bobby Cox decides to turn him into a one-inning pitcher who is scheduled to face two lefties and a righty, we could be in for some trouble.

After originally being pushed to the majors early in his career in 2000 and 2001, Ohman disappeared from baseball for two years, likely because of injury, before resurfacing in 2004, where he pitched in 45 games for Iowa. The following season, he established himself as a factor in the Cubbie pen and spent the majority of the last three years in the majors. His best season remains 2005, where he posted a career-best 151 adjusted OPS. Over the last two seasons, he has simply been good enough to not be a weakness.

Most of his troubles have stemmed from Wrigley Field. Over his career, he has a horrid 6.63 ERA at home while posting brilliant numbers (2.53 ERA) at home. He has looked pretty great at Turner Field, if you are curious.

For a base salary of $1.6M this year, Ohman might be a bargain compared to the contracts other LOOGY's like J.C. Romero are getting. He replaces Ron Mahay and with Royce Ring, should provide the Braves enough pitching to get outs consistently. If Mike Gonzalez provides anything resembling his prior injury-self, the lefthand side of the Braves pen could be a beast, a heck of an advantage considering the Phillies lefthand terror of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

(kudos to the Cubs blog, Crawly's Cub Kingdom for the pic. Check the blog out. His description for Infante and Ohman...garbage. Hopefully, he's wrong.)

Let's Meet...Omar Infante

2007-12-08T17:40:00.001-05:00

Omar Infante was acquired in a three-player deal that included Jose Ascanio going to the Cubs and Will Ohman coming over to the Braves. Infante is essentially your average utility infielder who the more he sticks around, the more money he makes that he doesn't actually deserve to make.

Infante has been in the bigs since he was 20 and six years later, not much has changed about what Infante brings to the field. His AVG is about a dozen points under the average, walks are nonexistent, and he has a bit of pop but nothing that outstanding. In 2004, he got into most of the Tigers games at second, third, and short. He even posted a league average OPS with the help of 16 jacks. However, in his last three years, he has seen his time decrease and his numbers justify that. His best adjusted OPS over the last three seasons is 90, or 10% below the league average.

After the last six years with the Tigers, Infante was part of the trade that sent Jacque Jones to the Tigers last month from the Cubs. He was supposed to play the same role with the Cubs that he had played with the Tigers in the recent years. The 25th man who can play 2B/SS/3B/OF for you.

Infante made $1.3M last year, which...really makes no sense. He will make probably $1.5M in arbitration, which might force the Braves hand to just non-tender him. While Infante is probably better than Chris Woodward, it just doesn't make much sense to keep him around for that kind of cash.

Winter Meetings and Such

2007-12-08T12:48:00.001-05:00

-Well, I would have updated yesterday but I had a date. Yes, it's actually possible.

-Anywho, the Braves had a slightly busy week. They traded a young arm for two players, DFA'd half of their starting LF platoon, released a shitty player, lost another shitty player in the Rule 5 draft, and announced who will be making sure our kids is learning next year. Let's get to it.

-First, the trade. Jose Ascanio, a guy I really liked, was traded to the Cubs for Will Ohman and Omar Infante. The latter was picked up in the Jacque Jones deal last month so his time as a Cubbie was pretty short. I will go more into each player in my meet and greets over the next day or so, but suffice it to say I am indifferent. Ohman can get lefties out, important when facing the Phillies, but you also lose a young power arm.

-To make room for the players acquired, Willie Harris joined Peterson Orr and Lance Cormier on the DFA'd list. Unlike Orr and Cormier, Harris could still possibly stick in the organization, but here is hoping the Braves can find someone willing to pass along a high-reward prospect our way. By the way, Cormier was the shitty player released spoke of earlier. The Braves decided to not even attempt to keep him around.

-The Rule 5 draft passed with the tragic loss of Sergio Valenzuela to the Reds. Why the Reds felt it incumbant on themselves to pick up Valenzuela is beyond me. In four years stateside, Valenzuela had yet to make it out of A-ball, though he was on the Richmond roster (probably to protect him from the AAA and AA portions of the Rule 5 draft). He has not pitched often in four years, but has pretty well sucked either way. Last year, he pitched for both Rome and Myrtle Beach and posted a 7.00 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. The Reds pissed away $50K they could have given me.

-The Braves have announced their 2008 coaching staffs for the minors. Chris Chambliss returns to the organization as the R-Braves hitting coach. The rest of the R-Braves staff remains the same. Crazy ass Rocket Wheeler is back with Mississippi and the M-Braves and Pelicans staff remain the same. Rome's staff was bolstered with promotions from Danville. Carlos Mendez, a former Braves farmhand, joins the Danville coaching staff as a hitting coach. Danville also includes Derrick Lewis, another former Braves farmhand who was GCL's pitching coach last year. Lewis last played in the Braves organization in 2003.

-A couple of former Braves joined new organizations. The lesser known one, Jose Capellan, was traded by the Tigers to the Rockies for Denny Bautista in your typical "I got a great arm who doesn't get it and you do too. Let's swap~!" It was not that long ago that Cappy was running neck-and-neck with the Andy Marte's of the world as top dog in the Braves organization. But he is already in his third organization since those Brave days.

-The other more noticable former Brave to find a new employer is Andruw Jones. Did you hear he signed with the Dodgers...or, the Braves West. In recent years, they have targetted Jason Schmidt, Rudy Seanez, Rafael Furcal, Wilson Betemit, and even Roberto Boom-Boom Hernandez. Now they add Andruw, though for a nice paycheck of $36M over the next two years, hardly the 5-7 years Scott Boras wanted. Andruw is paired with Furcal and gives the Dodgers some legitimate power for a team that finished near the bottom in the NL in homers and SLG. I actually think this is a good deal for the Dodgers. J.C. believes Andruw was worth $40M for the next two seasons and I have stated that he is clearly better than Torri Hunter, who got the big deal. Win, win.

2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown Part 3

2007-12-02T12:42:00.000-05:00

Here is the final ten of last year's top 30 prospects. Expect this year's top thirty to begin within a few days over at chopnation.com.

10. Jamie Richmond – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Here is one of the best, but not well-known stats of the year. In 67 innings, Richmond struck out 52 and (…wait for it…) walked FOUR. Let me emphasize that. For every person Jamie Richmond walked last year, he struck out 10.5 batters. Granted, he was at Danville, but still, how can you not get excited by that?

Richmond was a 31st rounder in 2004 and did not play until the following season, a likely draft-and-follow. He showed solid skills in eight games out of the bullpen for the GCL Braves, but it was this year that Richmond exploded. He also did not allow a homerun, just 51 hits, and ended the year with a 7-1 record, 1.21 ERA, and a 0.82 WHIP. It might be just one year and I might be crazy to rank Richmond this high, but he deserves with such an incredible year.

ETA: Mid 2010

Richmond is one of my favorite hurlers, though he was not as amazing this year as he was in 2006. He was one of Rome's most consistent pitchers, leading them in starts, innings, and K's. His 3.05 ERA was decent, but his 1.20 WHIP was hardly anything to write home about. Obviously, his K/BB ratio couldn't be as good, but 98 K's to just 25 walks is not a bad thing. I think he can rebound to have an even bigger year and my disappointment over what is considered a pretty decent year speaks well of what I expect out of Richmond.

9. Neftali Feliz – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 18…Ranked eighth in Baseball America’s Gulf Coast League rankings, Feliz is getting more and more press seemingly every time someone posts a Top Braves prospect list. My rankings will be no different. While the Dominican reportedly has a wild delivery, if he stays healthy, he could be special.

In his first professional season, he tossed 29 homerless innings, striking out 42. The 14 walks and four wild pitches show a hurler needing a little harnessing, but nothing too out of the ordinary. He received equal time as a reliever and a starter so it is unknown where the Braves ultimately see him, but with time, he could be the next Jose Capellan (a phenom) or something even better.

ETA: Early 2011

Feliz remains a big-time arm in need of sculpting, but it will not be done with the Braves. He played very well with Danville until he was included in the Mark Teixeria deal. Texas pushed him to get a taste of A-ball and his numbers were not quite as good.

8. Van Pope – Third Base – Age: 23…Pope has quietly been a solid player for the Braves since they selected him in the 2004 draft in the fifth round. Last year with Myrtle Beach, he showed impressive power despite playing with the Pelicans as he pitched in 31 doubles and 15 homeruns. If that was not enough, he added a .090 IsoOBP.

With Eric Campbell in the system, it is understandable why Pope has received so little press. However, Pope has a pretty good chance of succeeding Chipper Jones in the future. He is also an excellent defender and that will be welcomed after watching Jones’s slow reaction time. Recently, Pope made the Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospects forn the Braves organization and provided he performs well at Mississippi, he could be knocking on the door pretty soon. I look for him to get some experience at first base to add some versatility.

ETA: Early 2009

Pope was extremly solid in 2006, but was abysmal last season. He remains one of the best infield defenders in the organization, but his time as a pretty good prospect is dwindling. Last year with Mississippi, Pope failed to secure a .300 OBP and OPS'd .638. While there are few third base prospects close to the majors to push him, his bat, which was always a question mark, will need to be much better next year.

7. Scott Thorman – First Base/Outfield – Age: 25…The only thing Scott Robert Thorman has done since he was drafted with the 30th overall selection in 2000 is hit. While his numbers do not stand up to some of the big-time first base prospects in the game, considering the pitcher-friendly parks he has called home during his ride up the minor league system, I believe we have yet to see the best he can provide.

Thorman got his first shot at major league pitching this year and was immediately thrust into the third spot in the Braves order for a time. The first person he faced? Curt Schilling. Welcome to the big leagues. All in all, Thorman showed explosive power (16 of his 30 hits went for extra bases), but struggled with consistent contact, showing little of his decent plate discipline. Ultimately, I see Thorman settling into a very Adam LaRoche-like offensive profile. His best power seasons have come in the past two years so he still may have some power he has yet to take advantage of.

ETA: Early 2007

Well, we all know how Thor's 2007 went. After essentially being given the lionshare of first base duties, the beast from Canada flopped. He continued to show explosive power, but he rarely hit the ball. Finally, the Braves acquired Teix and Thor spent the final two months as a bat off the bench. He could continue to be that, but his lack of verstility on the bench could be a problem. I believe he will be traded sometime.

6. Joey Devine – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 23…Not every college reliever is built the same. The Braves were tempted by bad pitching in their own bullpen, excellent minor league numbers by Devine, and success stories like Huston Street and thrust Devine into a significant role in their bullpen in 2005. It did not go too well, I am afraid. Everyone knows about the two Grand Slams he gave up in his first two games. In addition, he gave up Chris Burke’s 18th inning homerun to end the Braves season. Last year, he looked stellar in spring training, though late struggles had him headed to Richmond, which was the right idea. Injuries prompted a call-up that produced little success and injuries of his own quickly followed. In September, Devine was used as a situational righty (a ROOGY?) to moderate promise.

That is all things we know right now. Where Devine goes from here is still to be decided. The former Wolfpack member from NC State has a great arm. He reminds me of Tim Spooneybarger in the sense that he has great natural movement. Talent wise, Devine could be anything from a great setup reliever to a shutdown closer. Will he get there? Probably not next year, but I think he will eventually get it together as long as Atlanta treads softly.

ETA: Mid 2007

Devine finally started to put it together as he was healthy and effective for the entire 2007 campaign. He finished fourth in the Southern League in saves with 16 in 33 games. He was also on the Ascanio/Devine shuttle between Mississippi and Atlanta where each pitcher would get a game or two in the majors before getting demoted again. He added to his resume with an impressive 17 games with the eventual International League champs, Richmond. His control remained problematic in the majors, but he was much more confident in ten outings. Out of options, Devine's time to shine is now.

5. Brandon Jones – Outfield – Age: 23…In the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, they basically killed off “draft-and-follow” players, or players that are drafted, play a season at a junior college or whatever, and then the team re-evaluates if they want to sign him or if the player wants to re-enter the draft. Jones was one of those players and was a big find for the Braves after he was selected in the 23rd round. In three years since he signed merely days before the 2004 draft, he has handled himself to the tune of a .819 OPS.

Jones has not played a full season in any year (signing late and injuries played their part), but after 58 games with Myrtle Beach this year, he was promoted to Mississippi and actually hit better than he had at the Beach, showing off a .477 SLG power and a .273 batting average. His projections vary, but I see him along the lines of 20-25 HR, solid contact skills, and generally a good hitter. Maybe not an All-Star, but a guy who keeps a position from being a weakness.

ETA: Early 2009

Like many of the players who had Mississippi dominating the first half, Jones earned promotions the rest of the year and even got a chance in the majors in September. In a season that saw the Braves trade many of their top prospects and other top prospects regressed, Jones flourished for the Braves, hitting a combined .295/.367/.490 with 19 homers and 100 RBIs for Mississippi and Richmond. That 100 RBIs was best in the organization. He went 2-for-19 in the majors with a double, but has a good chance of competing for a job in the spring.

4. Eric Campbell – Third Base – Age: 21…In 2005, Campbell, the former second rounder from Indiana, showed why the Braves selected him as high as they did for he took home just about every conceivable honor for his success at advanced rookie level Danville. Last year, he was almost as impressive, hitting .296 with a .517 SLG. Adding to that, he stole 18 bases and mashed 22 homeruns for Rome.

Where Campbell will play is up for debate. Most believe he will be moved to second and become the long-term answer at that position, opening third base for Van Pope. His experience at second in the Hawaii Winter League gives credence to that. Campbell is a hacker like Jeff Francoeur, but seems to make more contact, striking out in just 15% of his at-bats while playing most of 2006 at a younger-than-average age for his level. Keep an eye on Campbell. He could be fast tracked if he handles Myrtle Beach.

ETA: Late 2008/Early 2009

Spoiler alert - none of the top four in this list will be in the 2007 top ten. The top three were all traded, but Campbell's attitude and regression as a player was his biggest fault. He batted .221/.312/.406 in 81 injury-and-suspension hurt games for Myrtle Beach. The walks, 36, were a new personal high and he showed enough power, but simply sucked. He will need a major bounceback year to remain in the Braves plans.

3. Matt Harrison – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Matt Harrison has a real shot of making some moves in the organization as soon as this season. Since he was selected with the 97th choice in 2003, all Harrison has done is become more and more impressive. While with Danville in 2004, he gave up nearly ten hits per nine innings, yet considering his age of 18, even keeping the hits per nine innings fewer than ten was impressive. He came onto the map while again playing under the average age of the league the following season, going 12-7 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Last year, between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, he again kept performing at a high level.

If Harrison does have any problems it is the fact he gives up a good amount of homeruns considering the parks he has played in. But because he walks under two per nine innings and has a career WHIP of 1.17, he can give up 35 homeruns a year and still be a leader on the staff. Harrison is the one serious pitching prospect the Braves currently have in their system. If labels make you happy, Harrison could become a number two starter in the upcoming years.

ETA: Late 2007/Early 2008

My favorite Braves pitching prospect is no more after he was included in the Teix trade. Harrison dealt with injuries and was not as effective as he was the previous year, posting a 1.30 WHIP. The addition of Beau Jones to the trade was said to be a little backup in case Harrison was not able to stay healthy. He was named one of the Arizona Fall League's top 22 players to finish the year however.

2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Catcher – Age: 21…With Salty, his 2006 season needs to be taken into context. He suffered from a wrist injury and considering the fact he turned 21 last May, he was pretty young to play in the Southern League. Whether or not he repeats the level next year, Salty still remains among the crème of the crop as far as prospects go in the organization and one of the top three catcher prospects in the minor leagues. His power struggled last year, but he showed explosive power with Myrtle Beach in 2005. Posting a .200 IsoSLG while playing half of your games in that pitcher’s paradise is astonishing.

Salty has the potential to be the best power hitter the Braves have developed in a decade. His plate discipline is incredible and he is able to rebound as he should, Salty will once again re-establish himself as one of the best prospects in baseball. However, will he go the Andy Marte way and find himself traded or will he be moved to a position so the Braves can get him into the lineup? Hopefully, the latter.

ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008

What is there that needs to be said about Salty? After absolutely crushing the Southern League for a month, Salty was promoted to the majors and held his own. Over his next 44 games, Salty hit .284/.333/.411 and showed a strong throwing arm. Saldy, the Teix trade gobbled him up, too. He hit for more power with Texas, but his AVG/OBP slumped. I still think he will be a yearly .900 OPS guy within 2-3 years.

1. Elvis Andrus – Shortstop – Age: 18…Elvis may be the most popular Braves prospect right now and when you are already playing A-ball at 18, you should be pretty popular. In fact, he did not turn 18 until late August so he spent most of the season at 17. Still, he hit .265. Andrus is most definitely for real.

It is hard to project Andrus so I will say this. He has the potential to be the best the shortstop in Braves history. Too much? When you take into account his age, his relative success, and the fact that scouts love his possibilities, I have to believe that once he develops a little more, both physically and mentally, he is going to be a consistent force for years to come.

For me to rank him this high took a lot of convincing because he does not have the resumes that Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia easily present. However, there is not a Brave in the system right now that I believe can be Andrus’ equal in the terms of what he can do. Whether or not he actually does…well, that is why they play the games, correct?

ETA: Early 2010

It still amazes me what Teix cost the Braves. My top three prospects from last year, not to mention my #9. Andrus turned 19 in late August and finished strong to go with his birthday as he hit .300/.369/.373 after the trade. He was on his way to losing the number one slot in this organization before the trade as he hit .244/.330/.335 with Myrtle Beach. Just the same, there is a lot to be excited about with Andrus and he too was part of the Top 22 AFL players this year.

Boring Week of Nothing

2007-12-02T10:39:00.001-05:00

-Well, there was little to talk about after this week. Let's see, Mike Hampton is hurt. Major surprise, right? Chances are pretty good that his winter league action is over. After one inning. Seriously, I can't wait until his contract is up.

-Speaking of Braves no longer being Braves (terrible movie title), Peterson Orr was released. Can I get a w00t, w00t?

-w00t, w00t

-If that wasn't enough for a w00t, w00t...maybe the fact that Lance Cormier has been DFA'd is enough to get ya excited. At least, two of the medicore players who aren't good enough to stick around won't continue to get shots.

-In other transaction news, the Braves have offered arbitration to Ron Mahay, but declined to offer it to their other free agents, most notably including Andruw Jones. One final nail in the coffin for Andruw's time as a Brave.

-Braves are supposedly quite interested in getting in a few deals at the winter meetings, but no idea who will be their main targets. I still think Coco Crisp might be a focal point. Either way, I doubt we'll see a Lastings Milledge type deal.

2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown Part 2

2007-11-25T12:21:00.000-05:00

A few days ago, I looked at my rankings from last year from 21-30. Here is 11-20. Four of these guys played with the major league club last year.

20. Clint Sammons – Catcher – Age: 23…With Max Ramirez traded and Brian McCann in position to become the regular catcher for a decade, Sammons is now the top catching prospect outside of that whole Jarrod Saltalamacchia guy. Unfortunately, he has shown very little of the promise those other three did. He struggled significantly at Myrtle Beach last year and might be asked to repeat the level (especially if Saltalamacchia starts 2007 in Mississippi).

Sammons has shown some decent plate discipline and some contact skills, but next to no power. He seems to be known for his glove, though, which Baseball America classified as the best defense from a catcher in the system. A former Georgia Bulldog and graduate of Parkview High School, Sammons could be competing for a backup job with Atlanta in a few years, but is probably no better than that. Why did he make my top 20, you may be asking? Catchers will always have value.

ETA: Late 2008

With Jarrod Saltalamacchia gone, Sammons becomes the most ready catching prospect in the system and has as good of a chance as anyone right now of making next year's club as a backup. He hit well at Myrtle Beach, but struggled with Mississippi. However, he is merely a defensive catcher and got a September callup last year and started the final game.

19. Kevin Gunderson – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…The Braves are trying to carve out a niche with college relievers and a year after selecting Joey Devine and Will Startup, they took the closer of Oregon State, who won the NCAA Title last year. With the Beavers, he saved 20 games before joining the Danville Braves after the College World Series. He played just one game with them before hitting Rome, where he continued to cruise.

Gunderson lives on a fastball and a slider, neither of which will strike out a large amount of batters, but will both get the job done. He also has excellent pin-point control, allowing him to not walk batters and also keep the ball in the park. Gunderson is a true sleeper to climb the minor leagues this year. I see him as a real possibility to end the year with Richmond.

ETA: Mid 2008

Gunderson's ERA at two stops (MB and Miss.) was good, but his WHIP was horrible. The lefty will likely rejoin Mississippi to try to regroup and get back on track. Of particular concern was his control, which was rather poor. Perhaps he was hurt.

18. Jeffrey Locke – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Oh, gosh, a 4.22 ERA. He is so average! No, not exactly. While Locke’s ERA was a bit high and as were the hits allowed, the southpaw struck out 38 in 32 innings to five walks. Sounds nasty enough to make this list.

I picture Locke growing into a Macay McBride type role rather than a starter. With that said, he gave up a lot of homeruns for the Gulf Coast League (four) and will need to do a much better job. Unless he gets shifted to the pen, expect the Braves to push the New Hampshire native along slowly.

ETA: Early 2011

Locke was absolutely dominating at Danville last year, striking out 74 to just eight walks in 61 innings. The southpaw will get his first taste of fullseason ball next year, but has a great shot to rise up the prospect rankings very quickly.

17. Anthony Lerew – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 24…Lerew only seems old as a prospect, but he will be 24 for the entire 2007 season. He will enter his seventh professional season and it may be do or die time for Lerew with the organization. On the good side, he goes to battle with one of the livelier arms in the organization. On the bad side, he has yet to do much with it.

Lerew has posted a fairly boring minor league resume that got steadily worse last year as he failed miserably in his efforts to conquer AAA. In 16 games, all but one as a starter, he was ripped for a 7.48 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. The efforts had him receive a demotion to Mississippi and he looked significantly better. However, without a good season, the Braves may move on to other hurlers moving through their organization rather than keep around the Pennsylvanian who is entering his final option year.

ETA: Late 2007

Lerew had a decent go-at-it with Richmond last year and with the Braves dying for starting help, they called on Lerew. After a good start, things went downhill and he hid an injury from the Braves. Surgery will take him out and if he hopes to have an impact on the Braves, it may have to wait until 2009.

16. Steven Evarts – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Unlikely to play a major role this year as the Braves will probably use him at Danville before throwing him to the wolves at Rome, but Evarts had a great start to his professional career last year. The Braves selected the Tampa, FL resident with their third first round selection and the 43rd overall. When you look at the potential the Braves drafted on the mound, there is some serious talent here. They are just a long ways away.

As for Evarts, he seems to be in the mold of many Braves pitchers before him: great control, not a strikeout pitcher, and a guy who keeps base runners allowed low through changing speeds. I actually believe he will become the best starting pitcher out of this draft, but I do not plan on seeing him anytime soon.

ETA: Early 2011

Another 2006 draftee, Evarts was another solid arm for Danville, though his innings were lower than Locke. Perhaps he was injured. If healthy, he joins other '06 arms at Rome next year to see how good they can be.

15. Chase Fontaine – Shortstop – Age: 21…What are the chances this guy has a bunch of girls after him? When you tell a girl your name is Chase Fontaine, she will sleep with you. Try it at bars. As for the real Chase Fontaine, the Braves selected him this year with their second round selection and may have gotten another future star hitter for their organization.

In 60 games with Danville, the left-hand hitting shortstop completed a solid debut season that saw him hit .296 with a .411 OBP and a .412 SLG. He struck out a few too many times (45 in 199 AB), but the walks (37) help you forget that to a degree. Could be in the top 10 of Braves prospect next year if he hits well at Rome.

ETA: Late 2009/Early 2010

I liked Fontaine a lot when the season opened, but his glove really struggled to keep up with his bat and he was moved around. In '06, he played shortstop, which increased his value. Last year, he spent most of the year at 2B and 3B and found time in the outfield. Looks like a project.

14. Dustin Evans – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…So far, he is the class of the 2006 draft in how far he has progressed. Oh, well, that says nothing because he was just drafted, but the Georgia Southern product barely spent anytime at Danville before heading to Rome, where he displayed a 1.18 WHIP, a knack for not walking batters, and a great homerun ratio.

It may be too soon to rank him this high, but the second rounder made a fan out of me through his short time and could be knocking on the door to Mississippi very soon. I think his strikeout rate (5.53 K/9) will rise into the 6.50-7.00 range and if he continues to force batters to get on base through some other way than the free pass, he might become the first player from the 2006 draft to make his major league debut in a couple of years.

ETA: Mid 2009

Drafted out of college in '06, Evans was already with Myrtle Beach last year. The results weren't pretty. A 4.70 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, medicore K/9 and K/BB rates. He will have to re-establish his value to stay above some of the '06 pitchers level-wise.

13. Kala Kaaihue – First Base – Age: 22…I will try to refrain from any Hawaiian Punch references. Kaaihue, a native of Kailua, really came onto the scene with an amazing first half of 2006 with Rome. He drilled everything he bothered to swing at and if he did not swing, most of the time he reached base anyway via a walk. After 67 games, he was hitting .329 with a .458 OBP and a .614 SLG. The Braves got the memo and promoted him.

However, he struggled with Myrtle Beach. His average slumped to .223. However, the power and eye was still there as he reached base at a .342 clip and slugged .473. He received a little action in the Hawaii Winter League and will likely head back to Myrtle Beach next year, but Kaaihue could become a serious player in the Braves future picture next year after leading the organization with 28 homeruns last year. If the average comes back up, we could be looking up at Adam Dunn. Where he will play and when he will get a chance are questions we will ask later on.

ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008

Kaaihue's 2007 mirrored his 2006. He hit well at his first stop, was horrible at his second stop. He couldn't hit a beachball after getting moved up to Mississippi and his prospect status is in limbo. Kaaihue could still make some waves in the organization, but needs to hit well all season.

12. Yunel Escobar – Shortstop/Third Base – Age: 24…There are a few publications that believe Escobar has a chance to push his way into the Atlanta second base discussion this year. I am not so sure, but he has talent. Defensively, Escobar might be the best shortstop ready to possibly contribute in the major leagues within the next year and a half. Offensively, there are some good things. He nearly posted a .100 IsoOBP last year and that is definitely helpful for a lineup full of “swing first, swing second, ask questions tomorrow” hitters. He also took home the Arizona Fall League Batting Title.

Where Escobar goes from there is still to be determined. In full disclosure, I am not his biggest fan. He does not seem to have some signature ability to get on base, to hit for power, to steal bases, or to be wonderful defensively (ala Luis Hernandez). With all that said, he is still young enough to get something going and if he has a solid year in Richmond, he may become a solid tradable piece or a reason to trade Edgar Renteria.

ETA: Early 2008

Esco, Mr. Dynamic, or however you knew him, slowly made me a believer. He did becom the reason to trade Edgar Renteria as he set the major leagues on fire with his skills and instincts after being promoted. He is now in position to start at shortstop next year. What a few years for the Cuban import.

11. Jo Jo Reyes – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Selected in the second round in 2003, injuries have kept Reyes from climbing up the minor leagues faster, but he showed in 13 games with Rome what he can be. His numbers before a deserved promotion were 8-1, 2.99 ERA, 10.14 K/9, and a 1.15 WHIP. His numbers were not as impressive at Myrtle Beach, but he does not seem to have been totally overmatched.

It really is not known just what to expect out of Reyes. Like I said, injuries have kept Reyes to just 65 games in four seasons. When he was drafted, Bartolo Colon’s name was thrown about as a comparable name. If he can remain healthy, Reyes has a good chance of being a successful major leaguer.

ETA: Early 2009

He destroyed my original ETA by climbing up the ranks and passing Matt Harrison even before Harrison was traded. He headed into this offseason as the best young pitcher ready to contribute, but Jair Jurrjens has taken that from him. Still, I believe he has a good future.

A-Z Reviews: Y

2007-11-23T20:24:00.000-05:00

Time to finish up my player reviews. 48 players down, one last player to go.

Tyler Yates
-Yatesy had moments of absolute domination. Unfortunately, none of those moments came in the second half. In 27.2 ING, he allowed 32 hits, 21 runs, four jacks, walked 14, and struck out 31. He picked up a save, but that was only because Willie Harris pwned the Mets at Shea. Otherwise, his numbers could look even worse. He was rarely called upon in September, but sucked when he did get a call. Yatesy was fairly decent in 2006, but even then, he was hardly some reliable guy.

2008 Outlook: If Yates is a Brave next year, one of two things has occured. Either Yates is a sweet talker or Yates has pictures of Frank Wren with Boy George. Barring these two things, I doubt Yates will be with the Braves when spring training opens. Yates is eligible for arbitration and if Wren wouldn't keep Villy around, why would he keep Yates?

2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown

2007-11-23T12:35:00.001-05:00

As I begin to put things together for my 2007 Top 30 prospects, I figure it is time to look back at last year and where players ranked. As such, here is 21-30 from Raw Numbers #17.

30. Jose Ascanio – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Ascanio is the classic story of a great arm in need of just staying healthy. Ascanio played in just five games in 2005 and struggled greatly in 2006, yet he gets mentioned as a member on the Braves 40 man roster. Before his injury, Ascanio displayed exceptional control and a strikeout arm out of the bullpen. However, since his return, he is struggling to regain the control.

Nonetheless, I am putting him on this list out of respect and hope that the Atlanta Braves staff knows what they are doing when they take up a spot on their 40 man roster with him. That said, this is the same team that lost Adam Stern because they wanted to keep Mike Hessman. They also put Jonathan Johnson on their 40 man roster this off-season. Oh, and they signed Chris Woodward and Tanyon Sturtze. Okay, I have no idea why this guy is on the list.

ETA: Early 2009

Ascanio beat my ETA by a year-and-a-half and debuted with the Braves this year, often on the back-and-forth between the majors and minors before finding his spot. In general, he showed a great arm with a lot of stuff. The thing I mentioned being a drawback, his control, was not such a problem either. Expect a rise in this year's Top 30.

29. Will Startup – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Startup, selected four rounds after Joey Devine, was given the time Devine was not. Two years ago with Rome, he looked good over 25 games (which game him 50 on the year because he logged 25 as a Georgia Bulldog before being drafted). Last year, though, he was on fire with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi. Well, to be fair, he only played one game as a Pelican, but he struck out three in two scoreless innings so I am adding that. At Pearl, he allowed just a pair of runs in 25 innings before his promotion to Richmond.

This is where things got a little bogged down. The hits skyrocketed to more than a hit an inning while the strikeouts also took a hit. However, he pitched well down the stretch and could be in line to battle for a spot with the team this year. Startup has good enough control and should grow into a solid reliever. I rank him so low because I have heard claims of inconsistency and I am just not as convinced as others.

ETA: Mid 2007

Probably should have reached his ETA, but the higher ups kept him down before trading him with Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring. His inability to get a callup might be telling.

28. Brayan Pena – Catcher – Age: 25…The Cuban Contact Hitting Machine, Brayan Pena has logged 80 at-bats with Atlanta the last two years and seems sure to have the inside track to the backup catcher role with the big league club. A career .303 hitter in the minors, Pena lacks any kind of power and does not even show glimpses that he will grow into a power hitter. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter has never struck out more than 41 times in any given season and even swiped six (out of twelve) bases last year.

Troublesome about the catcher is his lack of plate discipline. His career high 31 was set in his first 64 games of his professional career while with Danville in 2001. He has never even come close as for as ratio of walks to plate appearances go. The other potential problem is Pena will not be mistaken for Eddie Perez or other such “defensive specialists.” With all of that said, considering his position, his contact skills, and age, Pena has the potential to be a solid backup who can step in and not be all Todd Pratt.

ETA: Early 2007

Pena got his chance and really didn't lose it, just had it taken from him. His defense seems to be a real problem.

27. Martin Prado – Second Base/Third Base – Age: 23…Nothing really stands out when it comes to Prado. He is a good hitter (.296) and decent at getting on base (.348), but nothing to write home about. He does not have a power element to add to the discussion and is also not an accomplished base stealer.

So, why does this guy have a real shot to replace Marcus Giles at second this year? Well, he is a pretty good defender and he keeps hitting. Last year, he jumped from Mississippi to Richmond to Atlanta and seemed to save his best hitting peripherals for the final trip, hitting .262 in 42 at-bats, but getting on base at a .340 clip and slugging .405. He seems to be your typical scrappy middle infielder who could surprise some people and may do so this year.

ETA: Mid 2007

He did all he could do in the spring to push KJ, but failed to secure any real playing time. He was fairly good with the team last year, though, and looks to have the inside track to a spot on the bench next year.

26. James Parr – Right Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…There are certain pitchers in the Braves system that can be classified as sleepers. Parr, a former fourth round selection, is one of those players. Parr displays great control and has put up a 1.27 WHIP during his first three professional seasons. More impressive than that is the fact he will be able to drink legally for the first time in February and has already performed well enough to deserve a promotion to AA.

I am not so sure he will actually get that promotion to start 2007 because he did have a 4.81 ERA at Myrtle Beach, but the rest of his numbers are not that concerning except a mediocre amount of homeruns surrendered. Just the same, at his age, Parr may have a chance to take some serious strides in the future.

ETA: Early-to-Mid 2009

Parr did head back to Myrtle Beach and was good enough to head to Mississippi soon after. His AA numbers were not as good, though. Seems to have a niche as a pitcher who needs time to complete each level. Could still sneak up the system next year, but his sleeper tag is beginning to fall.

25. Beau Jones – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…When he was selected out of Louisiana’s Destrehan High School, Jones had an easy time with the Gulf Coast League in 2005. The first rounder walked slightly too many batters (4.11 BB/9), but also struck out 10.54 per nine. Usually, the Braves hate to push pitchers over a level, but they felt Jones was ready for A-ball and sent him to Rome, skipping Danville. Bottom line…it did not go well.

Jones slumped to a 5.61 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and 83 walks in 110.2 innings. He did strike out 101, but you simply cannot put a little bow as trash and call it the silver lining. Jones probably needs another half-season at Rome, but he definitely has a talented arm. Hopefully, he gets going this season before he becomes a quick bust.

ETA: Early 2010

Jones found his place as a reliever with Rome last year and got enough attention to be part of the Teixiera deal in July. In the Rangers system, they put him back as a starter and he faired somewhat well.

24. Thomas Hanson – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…Perhaps one of the last draft-and-follows, Hanson was selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft and signed just before the 2006 draft. Before signing, he had no problem dominating the California junior college system. Well, the Appalachian League proved to not be much of a worry, either.

In 13 games, eight of them as a starter, Hanson gave up less than a runner an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. 56 strikeouts to 9 walks is an impressive number, especially for a young pitcher. Look for him to help solidify what should be a solid Rome Braves staff.

ETA: Late 2010

Spoiler alert, no one will make as dramatic a rise up my ranking as Hanson. I am a major fan of him. I see him possibly getting a shot in September of next year at the earliest. He may have posted the sickest 5-9 campaign last year.

23. Gregor Blanco – Outfield – Age: 23…I really have no idea what to think about with Blanco. I have this vibe that Blanco will not turn into a successful major league player, but then again, I could be (and probably will be) wrong. Last year, Blanco showed that miracles can happen and a Braves minor leaguer can post an OBP better than .400. Unfortunately, his SLG was much lower. This is not a homerun issue, but an extra-base issue in general. He simply lacks any power and only once, in 2004 with Myrtle Beach of all teams, was able to get his SLG over .400. Well, it was still .401, but still…impressive, huh?

In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Blanco has generally been a decent hitter in the terms of batting average. Last year, he set a new personal high with a .290 average between Mississippi and Richmond. Blanco reportedly possesses great speed, but is not a good base stealer. He has swiped better than 25 bases in all five of his minor league seasons, but only at a 70% clip. At the very least, the left-handed hitter could become Ryan Langerhans replacement. On the other hand, if things go his way, he could start in center in 2008 when Andruw Jones leaves.

ETA: Mid-to-Late 2007

Same ole', same ole' with Blanco. He really did little to earn much support for next year as a starting candidate. Disappointing campaign to say the least.

22. Kris Medlin – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…The Braves drafted 12 pitchers out of 15 selections in the first eleven rounds and Medlin was picked up in the tenth from Santa Ana College. In 22 innings with Danville, the young righty allowed all of 14 hits, one earned run, and a pair of walks. Oh, and he struck out 36.

Medlin will likely join Rome as their primary closer and the Braves have freely shown an open attitude to pushing relievers through the system fast so Medlin could hit the fast track if he has a good half-season with the Rome Braves. But right now, he can be pretty satisfied in his 0.41 ERA.

ETA: Late 2009

Medlen (not Medlin as I repeatily misspelled it) had three stops last year so I was right on about hitting the fast track. He is due to start next year with his last stop, Mississippi. His numbers at Rome and Myrtle Beach were elite and he got a Devineish amount of grounders. He also dominated Hawaii. Could see him knock on the door for Atlanta this year.

21. Jamie Romak – Outfield – Age: 21…The Braves are really adopting an almost sabermetric point-of-view. Example: Romak. He has failed to impress at all as far as batting average is concerned. Last year, the Canadian hit .247 and has hit .233 over 209 games. Nonetheless, he has shown great plate discipline and pretty good power, especially in the ballparks he has played in. John Schuerholz = Moneyball?

These are the reasons why I put a .233 hitter in my Top 30. Maybe Romak will never hit .300, but if he hits .260 at the major league level, he will still be very valuable. Think Kelly Johnson, but more power.

ETA: Late 2009

Soon after, the Pirates loved my review that they acquired Romak in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal. He dominated in the Sally League before heading to the Carlona League where he struggled to a .863 OPS to go with his .252 AVG. I saw him with Lynchburg and he reminds me of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He has a hole in his swing, but he hits the ball very hard. The Pirates got a major power hitting project with this Canadian.

Ruff?

2007-11-23T11:57:00.000-05:00

The official dog of the Atlanta Braves, Mike Hampton, is back. Well, sorta. He pitched an inning in the Mexican League on Thanksgiving (way to be American, Mikey) and gave up a hit and struck out one in an inning. The hit oddly came against the only lefty he faced in the frame, but whatever.

Hat tip to sdp.bravesfan via this chopnation thread. He is also the owner of Chop Chat.

Andruw won't be an Angel...

2007-11-22T10:26:00.000-05:00

Andruw Jones's main competition for top free agent center fielder signed today with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of The United States of the Western Hemasphere of the planet Earth of the Milkey Way Galaxy. Torri Hunter is an okay ballplayer, but someone is going to have to explain how he got $18M a year over the next five seasons when he hasn't been that good. Let's look at a comparison between Andruw and Hunter.

Andruw career OPS+ = 113
Andruw last three years OPS+ = 117
Hunter career OPS+ = 104
Hunter last three years OPS+ = 113

Andruw career EQA = .281
Andruw last three years EQA = .283*
Hunter career EQA = .262
Hunter last three years EQA = .273*

Andruw defensive rate = 113
Andruw last three years rate = 104
Hunter career defensive rate = 102
Hunter last three years rate = 98

* = not exact...just took the final total of the last three years and averaged them out, but it's pretty close.

But Hunter had a nice year last year, critics will say. Yes, he posted a 122 adjusted OPS, two points off his best total of his career. For a five year period before 2007, Jones had a 124 adjusted OPS. Yay.

Link for ya...

2007-11-21T23:11:00.000-05:00

J.C. at Sabernomics always does a fantastic job and he pointed out some interesting numbers based on MPR, or margicial Revenue Product. I still need to sit down and understand this number thoroughly, but what I gather is it essentially looks at what a player should be making based on the market and his performance. Three Braves were ranked based on last year. No adjustments were made for position.

NL Cy Young
3. Tim Hudson, $15.22
5. John Smoltz, $13.73

NL MVP
5. Chipper Jones, $22.44

Still couldn't get to the playoffs...

Catching up...

2007-11-21T22:42:00.001-05:00

So, the Braves have had a busy few days. Time to see what's up and all that jazz.

Tom Glavine has signed a one-year, $8M deal. Had he been anyone else, I would have had a meet and greet. But that would be dumb. Anyway, the deal was finalized and Glavine said it was for the best. As much as I love nostalgia and my recent purchase of the TMNT movie plays up that fact, this signing does little for me. It's not a bad signing, but it's not a good signing. It just makes sense. Personally, I doubt Glavine will do much more than John Thomson when the latter was healthy. I have been wrong before, though. See: saying "I've been wrong before, though."

Braves added three pitchers to their 40 man roster in efforts to protect them. I often find at least one name that pisses me off to see. That name is going to be Charlie Morton. In years past, it was the likes of Mike fucking Hessman. Morton has had a nice fall league, but he's never been that good. I guess he could theoritically get it together as a bullpen guy, but don't see why he needed to be protected. Also added were J.C. or Jairo Cuevas and Zach Schreiber. I've heard the latter is a no stuff, good minor leaguer. Cuevas, however, has a live arm. Still, none of these names are that interesting. I guess there weren't many good players to be protected.

Um...oh, also in that article, Peterson Orr was desiginated for assignment. Can I get a w00t, w00t?

Happy thanksgiving peeps.

A-Z Reviews: W

2007-11-21T22:40:00.000-05:00

Bob Wickman
-Thickman, or Fatty McFatty, or Blob, or whatever you called him went from a guy I didn't like as a player to a guy I didn't like as a player and a person in one short week. Wickman, who has had a few good runs, but struggled at times to get outs in 2007, was pissed in August when used in a non-save chance. Truth was, the guy didn't deserve to close anymore than Oscar Villarreal, but hey, that's why I don't manage, right? The decision made him blow a fuse, or at least get pretty angry, and he spoke up. Soon after, he was gone and the Braves saved a lot on fuel from lugging his big ass to places. He finished up with Arizona and had a barely noticable eight games in middle relief. Whispers are that he may have played his last game.

2008 Outlook: See 2007 write-up. If he returns, he will have to work his way onto some team and hope to prolong his career with middle inning work, something that bothered him so much in Atlanta. Otherwise, he's headed to the retirement line.

Craig Wilson
-Sometimes, things just don't work out. Craig Wilson's signing last offseason was a great move at the time for the Braves. Wilson was a strikeout machine, sure, but he had solid numbers across the board as a Pirate. However, the platoon with Scott Thorman worked against him and he never got started. In 24 games, he hit .172 with just one homer. His struggles eventually ended with a release from the Braves system. He hooked up with Charlotte, the White Sox AAA team, and was horrible for them in 15 games.

2008 Outlook: Wilson can still hit, I feel. Things snowballed on him. He may have to take an independent league contract, but I would be surprised if he never got another major league chance. But stranger things have happened, I guess.

Chris Woodward
-Woody somehow parlayed his lack of skills into a full season in which he played in over half of the Braves games. In 92 insertions to the lineup, he hit .199/.252/.279 with a homer. His best offensive production was four sacbunts, but he was horrible at bunting too. Yet, he stuck around. Like a bad visitor.

2008 Outlook: On the positive side, Cox stopped even playing Woody in September, showing that yes, Woody has no place in the plans for this team. With Brent Lillibridge, Martin Prado, Willy Aybar, and a possible veteran middle infielder for some backup in the mix, Woody can ruin another team's bench next year.

A-Z Reviews: V

2007-11-18T12:50:00.001-05:00

Oscar Villarreal
-Villy was pretty solid in 2006, posting good numbers both in traditional and sabermetric categories, but really fell back to Earth last year. Though his ERA of 4.24 isn't that bad, he pitched worse. His DERA hit 4.66. He did get a bit more K's, but walked more hitters which is rarely a good trade. The Vulture didn't make a run on ten wins, but I refuse to think he would have been any worse than some of the guys Bobby turned to as a starter. I was surprised Villy didn't get any chances there.

2008 Outlook: Frank Wren's latest move was to send Villy to Houston for outfielder Josh Anderson. Good deal for the Braves because Villy was arbitration-eligible, likely to be non-tendered, and not that good. Villy will likely make the 'Stros bullpen and be a decent long reliever. I honestly expect him to begin to bounce from team-to-team pretty soon.

Let's Meet...Josh Anderson

2007-11-17T22:43:00.000-05:00

That's Josh. Say hi to him. He is a new Brave, acquired for Oscar Villarreal. The only thing I hate more than people with hard to type names like Jurr Jurrjens (I'm not even making sure that's right) is people with generic WASPy names like Josh Anderson. If you or your family is reading, you're totally the exception that proves the rule. Totally. Dammit, I need to see Clueless for the five billionth time.

Anderson was born three days after me in 1982. Weird. He's from Kentucky and went to Eastern Kentucky where he hit very well and parlayed into a fourth round selection from the Houston Astros. The left-hand hitting outfielder finished up 2003 with Tri City before beginning his first full season of pro ball with Lexington of the SALLY league in '04. After an outstanding .324/.402/.425 campaign in 74 games, he would spend the next 3.5 years trying to approach those numbers again. After Lexington's dominance, he finished the year with Salem in the Carolina League. His OPS fell under .700 where it stayed the following year in Corpus Cristie. A 2006 repeat of Corpus Cristie saw some improvement as he hit .309/.349/.384. Last year, he hit .273 but OPS'd just .666 in the hitter-friendly PCL. That's right, he's the devil.

He finished up with the Astros where he surprised many by hitting .358 in 21 games. In fact, he played the final series against the Braves, going 3 for 12. He finished the year with a six game hit streak and hit in 15 of his final 16 games.

But that's not Josh Anderson, I feel. Not even close. Wanna know who J-And really is?

Fast Guy: Anderson has stolen 237 bases in five minor league seasons and has been caught only 62 times (79%). He is what Willie Harris and Gregor Blanco simply are not. A guy with plenty of speed, but an eye and instinct for stealing.

Powerless: He slugged just .373 as a minor leaguer. Three of his 24 major league hits went for extra bases. You simply are not going to get much power out of him, which is why his speed is so important to his game.

Good Contact: Anderson does not strike out too much which is good because he doesn't walk. At all. His entire game is predicated by putting the ball in play and running.

A player in this mold can start for clubs. When he's a middle infielder that is. Or people get so enamored with your "grit" and the fact you're a black guy with a french-spanish name (Juan Pierre?), but Anderson is not starting material. However, as a fourth outfielder, he could be valuable. I'm a stats guy, but when it comes to the bench, I typically will think "high average" because in my opinion, the batting eye is tougher to maintain as a benchwarmer than the swing. Especially when you have spent your minor league years as a punch-and-judy hitter anyway.

Ultimately, decent deal. The Braves got some help, got rid of some dead weight, and did so while saving money. Yay.

A-Z Reviews: T

2007-11-17T20:49:00.000-05:00

No pictures...just trying to get through the reviews. Also wanna write about the Villy/Anderson deal. Anywho...

Mark Teixeira
-Teix was acquired at the deadline in a six-player trade that included three of the top five prospects in the system. It was a shrewd trade by a possibly desperate John Schuerholz. I felt the deal would give the Braves 3-4 extra wins than they would have had otherwise. Instead, the Braves finished a game over .500 for the final two months after being five over .500 the first four months. Nevertheless, the deal turned the Braves offense into a force and had the pitching been addressed at all, the Braves would have won more games because despite 160 runs in August, a monthly high, they allowed 148, also a monthly high. In general, Teix was everything we expected.

2008 Outlook: Teix's contract situation aside, he is a tremendous hitter. Over the past four years, his EQA has not drifted under .285 and he is good for 6-8 wins above a replacement player. Put that in perspective. Because Teix is a 1B, a traditional power hitting position with some of the best hitters in the game, Teix has to be that much better to be worth so many more wins. I felt his 1B play was an improvement, but he's not an incredible defender or anything - just pretty good. It will be unfortunate if the Braves get a year and a half out of Teix, but that will be an awesome year and a half provided he stays healthy.

Scott Thorman
-Teix replaced Thorman in a sense, but Thor had been replaced slightly before the trading deadline by Julio Franco. Odd because he was having some of his best success in July. However, he struggled down the stretch and would have been cut if he wasn't out of options. As the year came to a close, he was looking at a .216 year with just 14 walks. He showed explosive power (11 HR, 18 2B, .178 ISO), but never looked comfortable this year.

2008 Outlook: Not quite sure what to think about with Thor. His minor league career is hardly some shining example of prospect city. .276/.342/.452. He has looked pretty horrible with Atlanta since his callup in 2006. It might be time to cut bait if a trade can benefit the Braves. Otherwise, hold on to him for some power off the bench and a LH bat for 1B/LF. Still, he was probably at best a stopgap. Now...he's a man searching for a chance. He apparently is having a nice winter in Mexico so maybe he can increase his trade value.

A-Z Reviews: S

2007-11-11T14:30:00.000-05:00

Jarrod Saltalamacchia
-Salty was called up on May 2nd on his 22nd birthday and immediately performed at a high pace for the Braves, where he split time at catcher and first. His impact was not as high as it could have been because simply put, when you're the only backup catcher, the chances you could get hurt, thrown out of the game, etc. really keep you from playing time elsewhere. Nevertheless, Salty played like a talented rookie and hit .284/.333/.411 in 47 games with the Braves before the trade deadline deal with the Rangers saw him traded. How good he becomes and how long Mark Teixeira is a Brave will decide the winner of the deal. Salty showed a great arm behind the plate, but looked like a bad first baseman at first. Not that surprising considering he was playing it for the first time in games.

2008 Outlook: As a catcher, Salty is an explosive star of the future. Quick, name how many switch-hitting catchers can post .200 IsoSLG's routinely and display solid on-base skills. Jorge Posada. Victor Martinez. Yeah, that's about it. Now whether or not Salty can get to that level is unknown, but I actually think it is highly likely he will and will do so within two seasons. Now, if the Rangers decide to use him at first, his value is lowered. He will probably be a good first baseman, but a far cry from being a great catcher.

Clint Sammons
-Sammons is best friends with Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann and got his shot late in the season after Corky Miller welcomed a new child and the Braves still had little confidence in Brayan Pena's catching abilities. He appeared in a pair of games, starting the finale of the season where he received his first three plate appearances of his major league career. He went 2 for 3 with a double. He's a fairly light-hitting catcher who has displayed solid on-base skills. Right now, he is probably the best catching prospect in the system.

2008 Outlook: Sammons struggled at Mississippi last year after handling Myrtle Beach with ease in his second tour with the Pelicans. After Salty's promotion, Sammons replaced him with the M-Braves and batted just .243 with 15 EBH in 83 games. Expect a return to Mississippi this year. He could battle for the backup catching spot with a great spring, but chances are better he will be working on getting to AAA first.

John Smoltz
-Smoltzie tossed 200 innings for the third straight year despite the occasional health problem. He started off the year trying to throw less pitches, but once he realized that wasn't helping, went back to his strikeout self and recorded 197 of them and had his second best season as a starter in what baseballprospectus calls Stuff. All in all, it was a normal Smoltzie year in which he put up a 3.50 DERA (.09 less than his career average). He became the first person in baseball history to win 200 games and save 150 and with 25 K's, will hit the 3,000 K plateau. He turns 41 next May so how much the Braves can rely on him is questionable, but as he starts his third decade of major league ball (made his debut in '88), Smoltze is just now getting the praise he has deserved as maybe the second best starter of the Atlanta Braves era (behind Maddux, of course).

2008 Outlook: His age is going to be a problem because you can never know when the other shoe will fall and Smoltzie will take one bad pitch, or feel something starting to creep up on his right shoulder/elbow, or whatever and it's going to be time to shut it down for good. But as long as he is pitching, he will have a few downers where he just can't reach back and get his splitter working and a lot of solid games that he will give his team a favorable chance to win.

Rafael Soriano
-Acquired for Horacio Ramirez in one of the most lopsided trades of the year, Soriano started off incredibly, struggled a little, and then finished up with insanely solid numbers yet again. What amazes me about Soriano is that in 72 innings, he allowed just 46 hits and 15 walks. The only thing that hurt him was the gopher ball. He allowed a career high 12 of them. I believe that was a little flukish, but power arms that get so many flyballs will give up homers. Nevertheless, he finished second on the team in saves with nine and after officially taking over the ninth inning again in September, was unhittable in that month. In 13 innings, he allowed four hits (including a solo homer), walked three (one intentional), and struck out 17. That included a three game suspension that MLB handed down for no real reason.

2008 Outlook: Soriano should be the "closer" heading into next season. There is no reason for him not to handle the roll. He may be even better in that role because he won't be brought into so many tie games or ones the Braves are losing by a run. He set career highs in G and ING last year, but may be better suited for the 55-60 game, 55-65 ING type year than the middle man.

Now he all angry!

2007-11-11T12:46:00.000-05:00

Chipper Jones is apparently not too pleased with the baseball writers choosing David Wright as the NL Gold Glove winner. According to the AJC, Chipper said the news left him "speechless."

Listen, Chipper, I love you as a hitter. I think you do not even come close to receiving the credit you deserve. But come the eff on. It is pretty obvious to me Chipper feels he deserved some love for his year in which he committed just nine errors and posted a .971 fielding percentage. Stats that tell you nothing about that player's defensive ability when it comes to range, his performance based on what all 3B do, etc.

Whoa...what the hell?

2007-11-11T11:32:00.000-05:00

Been out of it for a couple of weeks and missed time to comment on a trade. Damn you, Wren. I had an agreement with Schuerholz to keep any amazing trades on the DL until I was ready to comment on it. For my part, I will catch up with a column to be posted Monday or Tuesday at chopnation.com so be sure to check it out. Both players acquired in the deal were soon after added to the Baseball America Top Ten Prospects for the Braves organization.

1. Jordan Schafer, of
2. Jason Heyward, of
3. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
4. Brandon Jones, of
5. Gorkys Hernandez, of
6. Brent Lillibridge, ss
7. Cole Rohrbough, lhp
8. Jeff Locke, lhp
9. Tommy Hanson, rhp
10. Julio Teheran, rhp

I think Hanson is a bit too low and Heyward might be a bit too high, but a good list overall. Elsewhere, a hilarious column found here poises the question, "Is David Eckstein as good as Renteria? Maybe, maybe not..." That made me chuckle.

What else is going on in Braves world? Well, Tom Glavine seems like a sure bet to sign. I guess I just have to accept that when Schuerholz and Wren talked about improving the staff, they really meant Glavine above anything.

Jeff Francoeur won a Gold Glove. Yet again, that award is a useless display of defensive ability. Congrats Francoeur nevertheless.

Andruw Jones met with Stan Kastan. Apparently, nothing was discussed. Andruw playing coy? Things are so different! Speaking of now former Braves, the Braves traded Hiram Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel, got nine games out of him, and declined his option. Oh, how miserable that deal makes me.

Wren flatout said the Braves will not be after a free agent closer. Wonder if Schuerholz has told Wren yet that loose lips sink ships or however that oddass phrase goes. Since taking over, Wren can't stop flapping his yap about whatever new thought he has. Still, if this one holds out, kudos.

Well, that's about all that is going on. I'm sure by the next time I post, the Braves will have signed Jesus because Wren loves to mess with my lack of posting during the week. Bastard.

A-Z Reviews: R

2007-10-28T16:22:00.000-04:00

I'm watching the 4:00 NFL games as I hope for big days from what fantasy players I have left (go Maroney!) so I figured I would pick up with my reviews. Here are the R's. Yes, you can say it like a pirate if you want.

Mark Redman
-Oh jeez, must I start on this guy? "The day started out so good. I had a good night's sleep, I had a good B.M. I don't want to hear any bad news." Mel Brooks movie quotes aside, Redman was horrid. Horrible. Car-wreck bad. I never knew the sight of one person could make me so physically sick and scared at the same time. He appeared in six games with the Braves and the Braves lost the division by five games. Is it that much of a stretch that he killed the season? And then, in true Braves luck, he went to Colorado and didn't absolutely suck.

2008 Outlook: I'm not saying I want him dead, I'm just saying I'll ignore whatever curious circumstances bring that end upon us. I'm merely kidding. I don't want to see him do well, though. My God, there is a chance this guy might get a World Series ring.

Edger Renteria
-It is a shame how good Renty's season may have looked had he not suffered a high ankle sprain in one of the year's oddest games that saw Chipper Jones playing shortstop. Had he played in 155 games at the paces he put up, he would have finished with 205 hits, 109 runs scored, 38 doubles, and 15 homers. I do not even care much for the counting stats like hits and so forth, but damn, that's pretty sweet. He set a new personal high in AVG and finished with his second best season of his career. And...he wasn't an All-Star. Ya know, when people say, "the guy was an All-Star," I'll point to Renty's first half stats of .319/.384/.481 and say, "yeah, this guy wasn't. Screw the All-Star Game."

2008 Outlook: Renteria has one guarenteed year left on his contract and the Braves have Yunel Escobar. Seems like a perfect candidate to trade, right? Renteria to Escobar is in my book a loss of talent and production, at least offensively, but if Renteria nets players who make up for that loss, it is a good deal. Players like Jon Garland have been discussed and Garland would be a decent fourth starter, but if you add a guy like Glavine, you kind of need to either use Renteria in a deal for a bigger starter or in a deal for young talent that is ready and can progress into big time performers for this organization.

Jo-Jo Reyes
-In 2007, Reyes had a lot of ups and a few downs, but clearly showed that the Braves had reason to feel he was their top young pitcher in the upper levels in the minors. Reyes was a high school kid out of California when he was selected as the 43rd overall pick in 2003. He was a decent, but injury-prone, pitcher his first three years before taking off last year with a 1.24 WHIP and 3.51 ERA with Rome and Myrtle Beach. This year, he pitched well at AA, dominated AAA, and earned a promotion. Things stopped there, but Reyes rebounded in his second trip with the Atlanta. After a tough first start against the Reds on August 21st, Reyes pitched five more times (four starts) and posted a decent 1.33 WHIP and a 3.08 ERA. The biggest reason was that he was not walking so many hitters. He lowered his ERA nearly 3 and a half runs over this stretch.

2008 Outlook: Bobby Cox likes him, saying the Braves could be depending on him a lot next year. Whether that is Coxspeak for "hey teams, we like him a lot, you should overvalue him" or not, Reyes is the only real prospect ready to contribute next season as a starter, at least early on. There is some real potential here, though he will probably not be an ace-type guy. If he can be good through six, he would be a lifesavor for this staff.

Royce Ring
-The Braves had been searching for a LOOGY all season. Macay McBride faltered, Steve Colyer sucked, Wilfredo Ledezma sucked harder. Rob Mahay helped, but next season, it might be Royce Ring. He's a former 1st rounder out of San Diego State who the Mets got in the Roberto Alomar to ChiSox deal in 2003. Before last season, he was shipped off to San Diego and he had a McBrideish start with them (14 walks in 15 innings). After splitting time with Portland, the Braves picked him up in the Ledezma/Startup deal at the deadline. He got into 15 games with the R-Braves before his September 1st callup. With the Braves, in 11 games, he faced more than two batters just twice and in his last six games, faced a grand total of six batters. He faired okay, not allowing a run in five innings, but giving up two hits and three walks. Of 14 runs inheritated, only two scored.

2008 Outlook: Ring's pickup gave them a potential second lefty in September, but also a good LOOGY for next year. However, over his major league history, he has not been that dominating in that role (a .357 OBP against). He will need to pick up to be much more than a better Tom Martin.

Week in Review

2007-10-28T11:49:00.001-04:00

Hey, another week gone, another week of news that I have missed. Heck, maybe you have even missed it.

...heck? What am I, a farmer?

First off, here is a little praise for the best Bush currently going. Paul, a minor league swingman for the Braves, was inducted into the Georgia Southwestern State University Hall of Fame. Bush probably will never get much of a chance as a major leaguer. However, his stats are pretty decent. He's coming off an injury so maybe he can surprise some people.

The Rocky Mount Telegram called Atlanta the worst sports city. I only mention it because I hate corny pieces of shit and this one fills that sad requirement.

Meanwhile, just sticking with the Atlanta Braves, Mark Bowman talked again. One sentence scares me tremendously.

"The addition of one or two starters this offseason would certainly enhance what already has the makings of a strong rotation."

The context was that adding Glavine and maybe another pitcher merely makes the staff, that was strong before the offseason even officially began, that much better. This scares me because this is the same crap they were saying last year. On one hand, "let's get some starting pitching." On the other, "with Mike Hampton returning, we are already good." No...we weren't going to be and we weren't. Call a spade a spade, bitchnuts. Bowman is the Braves talking piece and anytime he makes statements like this, I start shaking uncontrollably.

The article also goes on to talk about how Brent Lillibridge is a candidate for the CF job. This is big because I don't remember that officially being declared. Lillibridge was going to play CF in the AFL, but an injury has postponed that. It will be interesting to see what he can do. However, the hype over Jordan Schaffer still bugs me. I mean, why point to an absolute rarity like Rafael Furcal? Schuerholz, keep Wren from talking.

The Braves made their first offseason move as they DFA'd Chad Paronto and picked up Chris Resop off waivers. Resop made his debut with the Florida Marlins three years ago and in 41 games in the majors, four last year with the Angels, Resop has a 1.83 WHIP and a 5.48 ERA. Fun! 26 walks to 27 strikeouts. Horray!

However, he will turn 25 on November 4th so he's not completely without some hope. Has only been a professional for five years. Has been used often as a closer and looked absolutely filthy in 2004 when he had 71 K's to 8 walks. He has yet to get that talent back. Last year, he was pretty average in the PCL. A nothing-to-talk about move that was probably spurred on by the fact Paronto was due arbitration this year.

Elsewhere, DOB talks about how the Braves won't deal KJ for Crisp. It's pretty sad when DOB is required to lay down some truthiness.

That's all the news that was fit to print. Whatever the heck that means.

There's that damn word again...

Raw Numbers #33 Posted

2007-10-22T12:07:00.000-04:00

Over at chopnation, my latest Chopnation is up for your reading pleasure. It is a fairly in depth look at the center field position for next year and the options I feel are pretty reasonable. Give it a look here and remember to comment on the chopnation forums.

A-Z Reviews: P

2007-10-21T17:44:00.001-04:00

Chad Paronto
-The Human Burrito had a great spring, but a groin injury led to ineffective play and a DL trip. After he got back, he received a demotion around the trading deadline and never seemed to earn the trust of the organization back. Really confusing because Paronto was one of the Braves only effective relievers the previous season, but 2007 was different. Paronto's control was a bit of a problem and the Braves bullpen was molding into form as one of the game's elite pens. With Richmond, Paronto was okay, though not great and then, didn't receive a callup in September.

2008 Outlook: The fact he did not receive a promotion in September makes me think the Braves were punishing him for attitude or conditioning. I doubt he will be back. If the Braves give him another chance, he could battle fairly well for a spot in next year's pen, but his chances of playing any sort of significant role for the Braves franchise is very low. (Props to Rowland for the pic.)

Brayan Pena
-Pena was not really challenged for the backup catcher spot in spring training. He had hit .326 and .302 in consecutive seasons with Richmond and .268 in 41 AB with the big league club in 2006, even providing a pinch-hit single in that ridiculous September comeback against the Marlins when after giving up four runs to fall behind 7-2 in the 10th, the Braves scored five runs via some of the worst defense in MLB history. However, Pena's season came to a sudden stop when Greg Dobbs' backswing hit Pena in the head, giving him a concussion. The injury, suffered on May 1st, gave Jarrod Saltalamacchia a chance and Salty took over. Pena went to Richmond once healthy, playing C, 1B, 3B, LF, and RF, before getting a shot back with the Braves in September.

2008 Outlook: The reason for Pena's inability to stick at catcher had nothing to do with the amazing catching duo of Corky Miller and Iker Franco and everything to do with pitchers' dislike of Pena as a catcher. The TBS crew gave credence to that thinking and they rarely speak anything the major league squad doesn't okay. Out of position, Pena's offensive abilities would be suitable for a utility man or a middle infielder. The former is much more likely. Don't know if he has much of a future with the Braves, though.

Martin Prado
-Prado's year can be split in two. From the moment he got called up (5 for 28, no EBH, 2 BB) and demoted to his second callup (12 for 31, 2 2B) and the end of the season. Prado was the guy I sorta liked coming into spring to start the year at second and giving KJ more time to defensively adjust to the position. His overall numbers of .288/.323/.339 in 28 G weren't that bad. Around those callups this year, he hit .316/.374/.420 for the R-Braves. Over his career, he is a .300 minor league hitter. Essentially, he is Brayan Pena with the ability to play up the middle.

2008 Outlook: Prado is a good backup possibility, better than the likes of Peterson Orr or Nicholas Green. It won't even be that big of a fallback when you need to put him in the lineup. All in all, a perfect backup who received time at 2B/SS/3B, but is probably best suited for only 2B and 3B. I still think given time, Prado has a chance to have a Polanco type career for someone.

Week in Review

2007-10-21T11:42:00.001-04:00

When I work during the week, I rarely if ever keep track of the Braves, baseball, my cat, or my bathing routine. Perhaps I've said too much. Anywho, here is a recap of the week's events involving the Braves. Some of this may be old news to you, some of it may have been mislooked, but all of it is NEWS! I feel so Dan Ratherish.

The Savannah Morning News mentions that maybe John Schuerholz's decision to move to President was due in at least part to the fact that he didn't want to deal with Glavine or try to replace Bobby Cox. Hear that, John? The SMN calls you a pussy. What now?

Meanwhile, the favorite target of this blog, the AJC, had a Frank Wren piece from Jeff Schultz. It's your basic fluff piece with a little history on Wren that you probably will never be asked about on Jeopardy. This Schuerholz/Wren shake-up is kind of reminding me of the Bill Parcells/Wade Phillips shake-up in Dallas. One guy is the bigger personality - both in the media and the way he is portrayed. However, Wren won't have direct contact.

I'm still not sure this setup will work so well. If Schuerholz feels the itch to do the GM job, it could break down rather quick.

Crooked Pitch had a look at the Braves outfield in 2007. Decent objective piece, though he is dreaming if he feels Brandon Jones can be the starting center fielder in 2008.

Speaking of center field, Torri Hunter has expressed a desire to play in Atlanta next year. Last year, I railed against getting Tom Glavine and this year, I would rather have Glavine than Hunter. If you look at Hunter's career, he has two pretty good years, three pretty shitty years, and four average to slightly better-than average campaigns. Why the hell would I want to pay $13-$15 million for that? Yes, he is coming off a solid year, but he still posted a pedestrian .334 OBP and a hardly notable .505 SLG to go with his 122 OPS+. All told, his year wasn't that much better than any other year.

Put it this way. As I was preparing for my next chopnation column, I came to the conclusion that on a money paid, production received scale, Mike Cameron trumps Hunter and I'm hardly that much of a fan of Cameron.

DOB is hyping up Jordan Schaffer. Hopefully, the kid keeps progressing, but this lovefest is getting a little scary. I believe a lot of people are convinced that Schaffer will be the starting center fielder. You have to learn from the Andy Marte's of the world that just being great in the minors and having solid potential doesn't make a star right away. "Think Grady Sizemore meets Steve Finley?" I hope he is more on the Sizemore side than Finley. The latter was a good guy, nice defender, but an average hitter. Sizemore is a damn force.

Finally, news came out today that Paul Byrd bought $24,850 of HGH between the summer of 2002 and the winter of 2005. 2002 was Byrd's career season with the Royals when he came out of nowhere to suddenly win 17 and post solid numbers. The Braves signed him in 2003 and he spent two years in Atlanta in which he started just 19 games. Maybe the HGH made him more prone to injury.

Now I'm of the camp that really downplays the impact HGH has on a player, especially a pitcher. HGH simply buils immature muscle which would be good for someone who needs girth like an offensive lineman, but not so helpful for a guy like Paul Byrd - who is a finesse pitcher. Nevertheless, this is the kind of stories that you kind of get used to. I tend to like Byrd, but jeez, you were an idiot.

A-Z Reviews: O

2007-10-20T23:47:00.000-04:00

Hey, I'm back for a few days and here is a report on the one O for the Braves. Not an orgasm, pervs, but a player.

Pete Orr
-Peter bothers me. First off, I'm never a big fan of people whose name can also mean penis. You can shorten it to Pete or go with Peterson, but the dick is still there, Mr. Canada. Second...ugh. He is a horrible offensive player. Sure, he hit .300 in 2005, but that just means he was that year's Nick Green. After slumping to .253, he was down to .200 this year, a season sandwiched around demotions. In 395 plate appearances over his career, Orr has drawn 14 walks. Come on, man! His SLG this year was .215. One extra base hit. Jeez!

2008 Outlook: On the plus side, Orr's a great guy. Which makes me think he'll be okay that he won't be a Brave next year. The Braves, if Willy Aybar is healthy, have eight infielders next year worthy of a major league spot. They also have the solid Brent Lillibridge, the better-than-Orr Wes Timmons, and coming off a surprisingly-good-year Diory Hernandez. It was a good run, Orr. My bet is that a AAA team will pick him up OR he joins the Can-Am league, an independent league that will allow him the opportunity to play some in Canada.

Tangotiger's Defensive Rankings

2007-10-15T15:40:00.000-04:00

Tangotiger is one of the most well-respected figures in the stats/sabermetrics scene. In August of 2007, he put the ballots out for fan-scounting reports on defensive players. Here is the result.

My thoughts...the league average in agreement level is .71. Of the 16 players who were looked at, 11 were given a reasonable agreement level. I'm going to look at the handful that weren't.

Ryan Langerhans - .64 aggreement - Langer is an interesting case. Defensively, he looks extremely solid, but his defensive metrics have never been that wonderful. Of criticism seems to be his throws - every step of them. Range-wise, he seems to have it down pat and has great instincts, but while he doesn't have a Juan Pierre noodle arm, he doesn't have a great one either.

Chipper Jones - .59 agreement - For Chipper, it's always been the old debate that we see with our own eyes. He does one thing particularly well, or so it seems. He can charge the bouncer and make an accurate throw. This much appears true. And his instincts, possibly the reason he started at shortstop and stayed there for so long, are solid. He just has slow reaction time. I've heard anywhere between "horrible" to "Gold Glove calibar" defense when describing Chipper this year. I think he's a bit below-average, but he was as good this year as he has been in some time. Still believe he's more of a Vinny Castilla type, though.

Chris Woodward - .53 agreement - Talk about a guy who doesn't really do anything well. They grade Woody at third, but you can essentially grade him the same at any position. I have never seen a former shortstop turned utility man who can't play any position with any sort of talent. Usually, they were playing short for a reason. Not Woody. He was horrid. What was there not to agree with? Maybe some felt he sucked even more.

Julio Franco - .62 agreement - Juliold is the kind of guy who is well valued by his manager and talked up too much. If you ever watch Julio attempt to field, one thought goes through your head. "This is why they invented the DH." When I heard people talk up his defense on his return, I was flatout shocked. Did they actually believe Julio was going to provide much of a defensive lift? Seriously, this is where the disconnect between Bobby and the fans needs to be. I'm not sure whether Cox actually believes Franco is so good defensively or he was dire need of something good to say when asked about the old man, but he sucks.

Scott Thorman - .60 agreement - In truth, I think Thor is as defensively inept as Franco. I think he displays better instincts, though I agree Franco is a better thrower and does the 3-1 throw better. Too many times, Thor was throwing it at the pitcher, not leading the pitcher.

When looking back at 2006's scouting reports, a player who saw a good amount of change was Matt Diaz. In '06, he was graded a 28. This year, a 34. While not a massive improvement, I admit, the one big thing is that his instincts were graded much higher. This allows him to take much better routes. If defense was keeping him out of the lineup, at least he is closing in the gap.

Anyway, I'll be likely working till the end of the week so I'll continue my reviews and such then.

A-Z Reviews: M

2007-10-15T12:03:00.001-04:00

Macay McBride
-McBride got off to one shitty start. After five games, he had pitched all of three innings and walked 11 batters. After a demotion that saw him get a lot of work as a starter for Richmond, he was back with the team in May and was generally decent. Over his next 13 games, he posted a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.00 ERA. And then, Schuerholz traded him to the Tigers for Wilfredo Ledezma in a deal that still does not make a lot of sense. He struggled at times with Detroit and appeared in his last game for the Tigers in August before being demoted. Not sure if he got hurt or anything.

2008 Outlook: While I was never that big of a fan of Macay...cause what kind of name is Macay?...McBride should stick around in this league for awhile. He's lefthanded and can throw hard. Still not sure why Schuerholz felt he had to deal McBride, but it was stupid at the time and it is more stupid now. He essentially traded McBride and Will Startup for Royce Ring. Seems like a lot of dumbassity.

Brian McCann
-The Braves catcher that Lauren likes to call "Baby" (shudders) did not have that good of a year last year. Yes, I know he was not going to hit .333 every year, but his IsoOBP (which wasn't that good) went down slightly to 0.50 and his power slumped to .182 IsoSLG. Still great numbers for a catcher, but hardly the numbers the Braves were expecting after his remarkable 2006. McCann has worked at improving his defense and it was better last year, but remains average at best. An average offensive campaign like last year won't help matters.

2008 Outlook: I still like McCann and think he can improve his offensive numbers. What I would like to see is a .065 IsoOBP and a .205 IsoSLG. That means, if he batted .285 next year, his OBP would be .350 and his SLG would be at .490. These are very makable marks and highly valuable at his position. Staying healthy would help, too.

Corky Miller
-The Life Goes On jokes are plentiful. Corky is your classic backup catcher. Can't hit, can play some defense, and oh, he can't hit. However, he was not that bad with the Braves, at least in limited at-bats. 7-for-29 (.259) with a pair of a doubles and a homer. All told, some good numbers. I still remember his first hit for the Braves because it was so effin strange. Called up after the Salty trade, Corky comes up in the 12th, Braves down by two against Brad Lidge. And the Corkster squibs a little swinging bunt toward second and gets an infield single, one of FOUR infield hits in his career. After a Willie strikeout, which he did often in the second half, Diaz hit a two-run bomb to tie the game up. The Legend of Cork lives on.

2008 Outlook: Brayan Pena is not a catching prospect anymore because pitchers can't stand him behind the plate, which might explain why no one has really tried to acquire him. Bringing Miller back just makes sense. He's great defensively and while he is a career .196 hitter, he does what he needs to do. If McCann went down, though, Miller would be a real weakness. Might want to bat the pitcher 8th when he hits.

Peter Moylan
-Last year, I referred to Moylan as a potential sleeper for 2007. He finished up well in 2006 and his deceptive delivery poised problems, especially to righties, and the movement he could get was just sick. But anyone who says they saw his 2007 year coming is a liar or has a time machine. Moylan rubber-armed his way to 80 games and 90 innings in which he allowed just 65 hits. Concerns of overusage were put to bed somewhat as he kept getting outs. With a 1.80 ERA, he became the first Brave to put up a sub-2.00 ERA over a full season since John Smoltz did it in 2003 in his final year as a closer. His metrics aren't too shabby, too, at least in the sense to say, "he was lucky." In general, anyone with that low of an ERA is benefiting from some luck, but Moylan was not abnormally lucky.

2008 Outlook: He probably won't post another sub-2.00 ERA, but he has a good chance to be solid yet again. He gets a lot of grounders, enough strikeouts, and keeps the ball in play. If he was any better, I would go gay for him. Well, maybe not, but his marks are ridiculously good. Relievers often sparkle and fade in equally quick fashions so it's not prudent to get too stuck on him. Nevertheless, the Aussie should be pretty awesome next year.

Wow, Bowman with a body blow

2007-10-15T11:59:00.000-04:00

Usually, Mark Bowman avoids all definites. He's either afraid to give them or the organization doesn't want them out in the public domain. However, when answering a question about Leo, he was very adament.

"When I read the first few questions that contained this subject, I was planning to attempt to find a more pertinent topic. My incorrect assumption was that after he exited to take the Orioles job two years ago, enough had been written to clearly indicate his departure created no tears within the Braves organization.

But since so many asked about Mazzone's potential return, I'll make it simple and say it ain't happening. Some of you suggested for sentimental reasons it would be great to bring both Mazzone and Tom Glavine back next year.

I'll just say if the Braves were planning on constructing a reunion team next year, there would be a much greater chance of seeing Charlie Leibrandt back in the rotation than of having Mazzone back on Bobby Cox's coaching staff."

Hopefully, that puts a bit of a wall up to the countless Leo posts I've seen.

A Raw Special: A Look as JS's Legacy

2007-10-14T16:02:00.000-04:00

http://www.chopnation.com/?p=95#more-95

My look at what was Schuerholz's 17 years with the Braves.

A-Z Reviews: L

2007-10-14T14:42:00.000-04:00

Ryan Langerhans
-There is no bow to put on Langer's season in which he was traded twice and designated for assignment once. I had some high hopes coming in for Langer. After his rookie season of '05 in which he hit .267/.248/.426 was followed by a much worse year in '06, I was hoping he could rebound in '07. What happened...was horrible. After an incredible spring, Langer went 3 for 44 with the Braves before his trade to the A's, who traded him a few days later to the Nationals. Overall, Langer hit .167 last year. I have certain hope in Langer, built by him making an All-Star Game for me in OOTP and the fact that he was getting benched for the likes of Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi in '05. I still miss him a bit.

2008 Outlook: Langer is in a very tough place. One, the Nationals will likely attempt to be players in the free agent market to open their park with a flourish. Two, Langer is arbitration eligible and after a season like he just had, you tend to close the door and move on. But I'm hoping Langer signs somewhere that will let him have a real shot at winning a fourth outfielder job.

Wilfredo Ledezma
-In a strange deal last year, Schuerholz traded Macay McBride for Wilfredo Ledezma. It almost seemed like he said, "ya know, what the hell? I like alfredo sauce and his name rhymes." Friends don't let friends make deals under the influence. Ledezma, who was never that good the Tigers got worse after the trade, posting a 7.71 ERA, before the Braves said bye bye and DFA'd him. A few days later, he was packaged with Will Startup in another "huh?" deal for Royce Ring. The traded netted the Braves a LOOGY...for a potential LOOGY and another guy. Maybe Ledezma is code for really messed up deals.

2008 Outlook: He sucks, who cares? Though, knowing the Braves, how much you want to bet he turns into an average starter that Braves fans look at as an actual improvement over what we start? (see Minor, Zach) I couldn't actually find a picture of Ledezma as a Brave...so...I used this nice picture of a black hole because...he might be in there.

Anthony Lerew
-Lerew was masterful in his first start on May 8th against the light-hitting Pads, striking out seven and allowing just two solo homers over six innings. However, that was only good enough for a no-decision as the Braves would win later 3-2. However, he failed to even pitch six innings in his next two starts, sucking against the Pirates (oh, vey) and the Red Sox (understandable) before a sore elbow was reported and Lerew hit the DL. Two months later, after it hadn't got better, he went the Tommy John way. Before his callup, Lerew was *decent* with Richmond.

2008 Outlook: He likely is targeting a September '08 return. His second half is shot and he will have to work his way back into the team, unlike players like Hampton and Gonzo, who if healthy are on the team. If he appears in one major league game, he has had a remarkable year.

The Other Big Three

2007-10-14T00:18:00.000-04:00

An era that might never come again

The question of what pitching coach Leo Mazzone actually meant to the Atlanta Braves might never be answered to the complete satisfaction of WHIP-crunching seamheads everywhere. Whether Bobby Cox is a gruff but fair manager of men or a sort of gradually worsening old coot in a uniform sometimes stacks up as one of life's basic imponderables.

"Seamhead?" For those who don't know, seamhead is the newest slam on sabermetrics by people who don't have enough of a brain to understand that the numbers being used are not, as the definition implies, obscure. To even join WHIP and "seamhead" shows how moronic and biased Mark Kreidler is. WHIP is so common that it is usually reported by any media source online, including ESPN. It is a fixture of fantasy sports now. Rather than using a word that Google won't automatically define, maybe you should understand what obscurity actually is, Marky. Hmmmk?

Oh, sure, that was a while ago -- eons, by the modern standard. Since Mazzone took his pitching theories with him to Baltimore after the 2005 season, for example, the Braves have experienced back-to-back third-places finishes in the N.L. East, going a combined 163-161 over two years.

Hyperbole is not your friend, Mark. "Eons" by whose "modern standard?" Dumbass. Yes, the Braves have not been a playoff team in two years since Mazzone left. The implication here is that Mazzone, if not causing it, played a major role.

Of course, in the AL with Leo, the Orioles have seen no improvement and have finished 13th out of 14 AL teams in consecutive years. It ain't easy facing the Yankees and Red Sox offense a disapportionate amount of times, I realize, but for the great pitching mind, Leo has not provided much to his new team.

Moral of the story? Hall of Fame pitchers are good. Without them, it's much, MUCH harder.

What's this? Mark's going to just repeat what I said. Oh, I hope my popcorn is ready.

The easy response to the success of those years is to survey the careers of Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Greg Maddux, among others, and essentially credit their bosses with being in the right place at the right time. Smoltz has been particularly insightful on the subject of Mazzone, gently pointing out in a recent interview with the Atlanta Journal Constitution that Mazzone's reputation as a pitching-staff wizard was built substantially on his ability to handle pitchers who already knew how to compete at the major-league level.

That's probably fair as far as it goes, and it's no problem accepting such a notion when you consider that Mazzone's two years in Baltimore, where the Orioles have been beset by injury and basic organizational and personnel failures, have produced the 29th-ranked pitching staff in the majors for two seasons running.

But the whole story? Egad, no. The whole story in Atlanta is too complex for that. It goes to something more mysterious and ethereal and, thus, of severely limited value in baseball's statistics-oriented society. It goes to the idea of multiple minds working together in some sort of weird harmony, of organizational leaders being pretty comfortably in sync. You probably can see it more easily than explain it.

I should have said 29th worst pitching staff in the majors, I guess. Sounds more notable. But hey, I thought it would be fun to keep it to the AL. And yes, the Big Three, "among others," played a major role in the mystique and greatness or Leo, Bobby, and JS. First off, both Smoltz and Glavine were young pitchers who had some success before Leo's arrival. Then, Maddux didn't need much help. He was already the best pitcher in the majors when he joined Atlanta. In fact, the young pitching, especially the starters, who failed in Atlanta are a big blackmark on Leo's career.

Look at Odalis Perez and Jason Marquis, two of the better young arms in the game, and neither could reach any sort of potential with Leo. Now, they were probably overranked as prospects, but Leo was supposed to turn them into stars. He nearly wrecked Kevin Millwood with his idea of "I don't care how hard you can throw, do it like Tom Glavine." And who takes the blame for the sad failure of Steve Avery's promising career?

The actual statistical studies that have gone over best manager and best GM, Mark, actually come to the conclusion that stability and a solid working relationship is exceptionally important to a successful atmosphere.

It ended right after Mazzone left, although only a fool would suggest that any one person's absence caused the Braves to drop off to 79-83 in 2006 or to miss the playoffs again this year. Players get older, arms fade, rosters grow brittle, injuries happen -- it's the same story everywhere you go.

You seem to be suggesting just that, Mark.

Baseball America Minor League Notes

2007-10-13T10:45:00.000-04:00

BA finished off the top 20 lists and added All-Stars for both the minor league as a whole and each level. Here is a review for our interests.

International League Top 20
7. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Richmond Braves
8. Yunel Escobar, ss, Richmond Braves
14. Brandon Jones, of, Richmond Braves

The IL was very deep last year with the many big prospects that headed through it on their way to the bigs. Lillibridge was ranked lower than expected in the Southern League, but made up for it in Richmond. Had BJ showed more of his power, he would probably be pushing his way into the top ten. Of course, no pitching on this list.

2007 Classification All-Stars
A Advanced: OF Jordan Schafer
Rookie: OF Cody Johnson, SP Cole Rohrbough, SP Jeff Locke

Low showing due in part to the quick promotions some players earned, but this is a sign of how deep the Braves' system is with real impact players. They badly need some luck and/or some good trades to restock this system, especially the upper levels.

Cody Johnson Tidbit

2007-10-13T01:35:00.000-04:00

Last year's number one pick, Cody Johnson, was selected as minorleaguebaseball.com's Short-Season Offensive Player of the Year Award. Not much from me, but check out some of the excerpts from the MiLB.com article.

The 20-year-old outfielder batted .305 while leading the Appalachian League in home runs (17), total bases (153), extra-base hits (40) and slugging percentage (.630). He also ranked second in RBIs (57) and tied for third in doubles (18) and triples (five).

"I told myself that in my first at-bat, I was going to swing at the first good pitch I saw," said Johnson. "When I connected [on the home run], it felt great and it set the tone for the rest of the season."

After hitting just .184 with one homer in 32 games with the Rookie-level Gulf Coast Braves last season, Johnson immediately served notice that 2007 would be different. He collected nine multi-hit games and hit safely in 15 of his first 18 contests while driving in 18 runs to help the defending-champion Braves get off to another quick start.

Hodgepodge

2007-10-13T01:20:00.000-04:00

J.C. at Sabernomics as come out with two recent columns speaking of the change in leadership and a possible friend returning. I appreciated the Schuerholz discussion, though. As someone currently putting together a Schuerholz look, I feel like I'm coming to the same conclusion. Good, but not great.

About Mazzone, I also feel that he didn't deserve to be the scapegoat in Baltimore, but his firing/letting go/whatever is certainly understandable. The O's have showed little full season improvement in pitching with Leo rocking in the dugout. Simply, a lot of talent makes a pitching coach look pretty good.

Oh, well, figured I would point these two things out.

A-Z Reviews: J

2007-10-11T22:02:00.000-04:00

Big review here with five players, four of which played big parts in the team last season.

Chuck James
-Charles, Chuck, or (as Chip nauseatingly calls him) Chucky had high hopes coming into the year. He had posted solid marks almost across the board in 2006, except for homeruns, and looked like the young pitcher the Braves needed to transition into the next era. However, there were critics. Like me. Who felt a lot of performance was sheer luck. A soft-tossing flyball pitcher who throws two pitches and neither are a breaking ball? Something has to give. Well, what gave was a bad season to follow. His 4.24 ERA again masks how poorly he pitched. His FIP and DERA were worse, his strikeouts were down, homeruns allowed went up. And again, he failed to get grounders. Even worse, in his 30 starts, James went six innings or better 12 times. Now, I wasn't a math major, but my dog tells me that's worse than half. Or less than. Whichever is worse.

2008 Outlook: James could be out of the long-term plans for the Braves for a few reasons. One, Jo-Jo Reyes is well loved by the organization. Two, if you sign Glavine and Hampton comes back, are you seriously going to go with three lefties in the staff (and three lefties who are essentially the same at that)? James probably isn't quite as bad as he pitched last year, but he needs to work on adding a sinker to his game. Or a curve. Or a slider. Or hell, a knuckleball. Right now, he throws two straight pitches. Even if you change speeds as well as Greg Maddux, you need to get some movement.

Kelly Johnson
-KJ. Dr. Sabermetric (I'm warming up to it). Start of the year, I was worried with KJ at second because this team defensively scares me. Keller put my worries to bed with a solid April and though he was not awesomely awesome over like that again, he was solid for the entire year. He finished with a .286 EQA and I believe he can only improve on that. 7.1 WARP1, third best VORP among NL 2B, 4.1 pitches per at-bat, and a lot better defense than I thought we would see. His 107 defensive rate means he was 7% better than average and 9 RAA is not too shabby at all. 14 errors look worrisome to most, however.

2008 Outlook: I expect better things out of KJ. A .300 EQA and a .900 OPS are not lofty goals, but real possibilities. If he can work on the grounder to his non-glove side, always a tough thing to do as my friend BFH pointed out, KJ will be an elite 2B for years to come.

Andruw Jones
-It's over. As I wrote in Raw Numbers #32, the Braves and Andruw Jones are no more and in many ways, I am both sad and excited about it. There is not much left to say about Andruw's year. As for as adjusted OPS goes, it was his worst full season. Taking 1997 out of the mix (a full season, yes, but he was mostly a part-time player), Andruw set career lows in runs scored, hits, doubles, and tied his career low in RBIs. His 236 total bases, a career low. And for Andruw, it just got worse. I was still pretty convinced into June and some of July, Andruw would turn it around to at least put up respectable numbers. I was so wrong.

2008 Outlook: This season, Andruw was absolutely horrible and there are many reasons to believe that Andruw will go down the same road players like Ruben Sierra (after his first seven years, he was never the same) and Darryl Strawberry (once he hit 30, it was all over). Andruw's over 30, though in today's game, that's not exactly a death sentence. Unlike Rusty Greer, he was not defensively reckless in center, but his body has taken a considerable amount of blows. His defense is already in decline. If he can keep it fairly average, he will still be a suitable CF, but once it falls, and I believe it will, he will be like Willie Mays in another way. Playing center field longer than he should.

Brandon Jones
-B.J. began the year with Mississippi and posted a very solid .875 OPS with them, complete with 15 HR and a .214 IsoSLG. He moved on to Richmond and his power slumped, but he still hit the ball well in 191 PA (.292 AVG/.354 OBP). That earned him a shot with the big club. He was only 3 for 19 with 8 K's, but did add a 2B and 4 ribbies. Jones is considered, by many, one of the Braves top five prospects and from what I heard, routinely flirting with a .900 OPS should be pretty easy for the kid.

2008 Outlook: Jones will turn 24 in December so he still has some time. Right now, I just don't see a lot of playing time available unless Bobby wants to platoon Diaz yet again with a new guy, this time the left-hand hitting Jones. Seems kind of dumb considering Diaz's last two seasons. If he is not traded this offseason, and I believe the chance is pretty high, Jones will probably fine-tune his game with Richmond next year, at least early on, giving the Braves a backup plan in case of injury.

Chipper Jones
-No matter how you slice it, Chipper Jones had an amazing 2007 campaign. An MVP calibar one. His .340 EQA ranked second in his career and his adjusted WARP's were the best he has ever had. He even reached 600 PA for the first time since 2003, which was the last year he reached the celebrated 100 R/100 RBI plateaus that he also reached this year. The 42 doubles were a new high and he walked more than he struck out for the eighth time in his career. His second place finish for the batting title got all the press, but for the first time in his career, he had the highest OPS in the league. Had he played just a bit more and the Braves been a bit more competitive, Chipper may have won his second MVP. All this...for $11M. Not too shabby.

2008 Outlook: It all comes down to health for Chipper because he remains one of the best hitters in the game. His career OPS is the tenth best active OPS. Defensively, he had one of his best years (though his range has gotten noticeably worse than it was and it never was that good). If healthy, Chipper is a candidate for any hitting award in the majors. I expect more of the same myself. 140ish games, incredible hitting, weaker defense. We're stuck with his defense so if he can do the Vinny Castilla thing (no range, but play everything you get to pretty well), he won't be too much of a problem.

JS Gives Way

2007-10-11T13:03:00.000-04:00

News conference is supposed to occur at 3:30 ET to completely validate the news that John Schuerholz has stepped down and will be named Team President. Dammit, I don't feel like writing another "Era has Ended" column. Andruw was enough.

Schuerholz has resided over the club since after the 1990 season and the results are solid. While I believe people overrate his abilities, the Braves were a competitive club from 1991-2005 under his watch. He took over a team rich in young pitching, due to smart drafting/trading when Bobby Cox was the GM. He has made some really bad trades, some really great trades.

Now, I will be writing a bit on Schuerholz for chopnation so I don't want to repeat myself over and over again. Technically, his new position will keep Schuerholz in town, but I tend to think it's more a "well, as long as you want, you can be the Team President." I wouldn't be very surprised if he's the next Cardinals GM, I guess.

So...

2007-10-10T12:35:00.000-04:00

Didn't update as much as I thought I would yesterday. Blame Google and the programs I got from them. You would think Google Earth isn't that fun, but you'd be wrong.

So, here is a hodgepodge of stuff.

DOB is still harping on Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, but at least seems to be resigned to understand how doubtful that is. He throws Noah Lowry out as a possibility. Seriously, can the Braves not get a right-handed pitcher anymore?

Lowry had a pretty solid first two seasons, but has been bad the last two. Biggest reason? He sported a solid 7.0+ K/G in '04 and '05, but that number has slumped into the 4.7-4.9 range the past two seasons. If you can't strikeout batters, you will make things much, much harder on yourself. Seems more like a project than a serious improvement.

Elsewhere, in the DOB column..."The Kansas City Royals and GM Dayton Moore are having their organizational meetings this week in Surprise, Ariz., and a major topic of conversation is their managerial search. Braves hitting coach Terry Pendleton’s name has been mentioned prominently, which comes as no surprise. But also mentioned by members of the Kansas City media has been Brian Snitker, the Braves’ third-base coach and a minor league lifer until he was brought up to the bigs to join the Braves’ staff last winter."

I don't mind either leaving. TP has watched over a very productive offense and maybe he has played a starring role, but I just don't feel he has been much more than there for the ride. Snitker has experience as a manager in the system, but don't think he'll be much of a loss either. Still holding out hope for Manny Acta being the Braves manager when Bobby leaves.

Pendleton is also a possible St. Louis target and that makes a lot of sense.

Down in Orlando, the Braves are beginning their organizational meeting. John Schuerholz once again talks up the need to focus on starting pitching and hopefully that doesn't just mean signing Tom Glavine for a fun little year. However, the real news from this column is Schuerholz almost going to the point to say that he has no faith that Hampton will be in the rotation next year. Sure, if he's healthy, probably, but the Braves can't "expect anything." Good to hear, JS. Apparently, you can teach an old dog a new trick.

Finally...Baseball America released their Top 20 Southern League Prospects. Here are the Braves players that made the cut.

5. Brandon Jones, of, Mississippi Braves
13. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Mississippi Braves
16. Jo Jo Reyes, lhp, Mississippi Braves
17. Diory Hernandez, ss, Mississippi Braves

Bit surprised by the Hernandez selection in that he doesn't seem like a true prospect, but a good minor league player and possible bench player in the majors. BJ's got some real upside, doesn't he? Matty, sorry, but BJ sticks around, I would not get too comfortable in a starting role.

A-Z Reviews: H

2007-10-10T12:30:00.000-04:00

Willie Harris
-He went by a few names at Chopnation. Willie Mays Hays Harris. "The Truth." But to me, he was the guy who replaced Ryan Langerhans and that did not make me very happy. Langer was one of my personal favorites, not this random addition to the team who was hitting at Richmond. But then, Willie kept hitting. In his first 36 games, he was hitting .412/.477/.546. 8 steals and caught just twice with a solid 12/16 BB/SO clip. I mean, I could hate on his fairly weak defense, but that offense was amazing. Then, on June 13th, the clock struck midnight and whatever pumpkin the fairy turned into a magic bat turned back and Willie was the Willie who hit .204 for the ChiSox in 2003. From June 13th until the end of the year, Harris batted .215. He couldn't even steal anymore and was caught in half of his attempts. He OPS'd .631. And yet, Bobby was iffy on taking him out of a platoon with Matt Diaz. Sometimes, I'm pretty harsh on Bobby, but I was really questioning if he was betting on the Braves _not_ making the playoffs.

2008 Outlook: Willie is arbitration eligible and his overall numbers of .272/.349/.392 might get him in the $1.5M range. If that's possible, Braves need to move on. Willie's not worth that much. Hopefully, JS non-tenders him, signs him to a much smaller deal with incentives, or finds some Southeast Australian team willing to overspend for him.

Tim Hudson
-You are not going to find someone who was more ardent about trading Hudson than me. Through two years in Atlanta, he continued a trend that was becoming disconcerting. Less strikeouts, lots of homers, too many damn walks. Yes, Billy Beane didn't get a lot for him, but then, he wasn't playing that well either. However, he turned it around somewhat in 2007. He posted the fourth best Defensive ERA of his career at 3.60, and while the strikeouts still haven't returned, he struck out enough and walked less.

2008 Outlook: Hudson is exactly what you look for when you start thinking "who can be a good #2 pitcher?" I tend to not care much for the labels #1, #2, etc., but Huddy is that. In many ways, he is better than most team's aces, though he himself is not great. He's just really, really good. If he can continue the success he reached in 2007, he will be a big reason why the Braves are in playoff contention. If he is only the innings-eater of 2006, well...

A-Z Reviews: G

2007-10-09T13:10:00.000-04:00

Mike Gonzalez
-Oh, what could have been? After an off-and-on start to his Braves career, Gonzalez was in need of Tommy John surgery and gone after just 18 games. Gonzo was fairly decent, especially when he was feeling it and not afraid to let go. However, that was few and far between. He walked a lot of batters last year, but overall, looking like he was capable of being the guy the Braves wanted when they gave up Adam LaRoche. Gonzo has at least one more year of arbitration if not more and should not get much more for next year than he got this year because he only appeared in 18 games.

2008 Outlook: The first two months of the season are pretty much shot for Gonzo. They say while Tommy John rehab takes about a year, it takes another year to get everything back so I can not expect too much from Gonzo next year. Anything close to what Gonzo would give in a healthy year should be considered an added perk. By the way, love the ass-out hug, guys. Vince Vaughn approves.

A-Z Reviews: F

2007-10-08T14:11:00.000-04:00

Julio Franco
-Ugh, the old man should have never come back and he scared the bejesus out of me when he did. 49 years-young, Franco was cast off by the Mets after hitting .200 for them and found a new home with the Braves because any old Brave that the Mets no longer want, the Braves will take back (see Glavine, Tom). Franco hit a bit better for the Braves (.250) but showed his age constantly by never getting around on fastballs. After Teix was acquired, Franco grabbed four games at both Rome and Richmond over the next month until he was reactivated for September. He went 1 for 4 with an RBI after returning.

2008 Outlook: His future with the organization is completely tied in to Scott Thorman. I could see the Braves bringing him back (sadly) if they trade off Thor. If not, Franco might be sitting around. Could play some independent ball to stay active and hope some team has a need for a non-power hitting first baseman who can't hit good fastballs. Hey, I can do that!

Jeff Francoeur
-I do not like being wrong. It bothers me. Francoeur was never going to show much more improvement in OBP, I argued, after he posted a .293 clip in 2004. Then, he did. He batted .293 last year with a .338 OBP. While sabermtrically, his EQA of .268 and WARP1 of 5.6 really isn't that much to write home overall, it was a massive improvement over '06. Defensively, he was as weird as ever. If you watch Francoeur run, he reminds me of a cartoon character trying to run with his legs spinning, but not going anywhere. Francoeur is not slow, but he just does not have much top speed. He takes odd routes to the ball, too. With Andruw gone, he's going to need to do a better job to try to hide some of the defensive loss. Some people talk about his HR going from 29 to 19, but I just don't see him as that much of a power hitter at this point of his career anyway. He's a line drive guy. Some years, the 2B/HR just fluctuate for players.

2008 Outlook: How good can Francoeur get? I do not know. I give up trying to come to a conclusion. In general, I can see him improving on this year, but he's never going to be a superstar on his hitting alone. I expect him to have a long-term deal with the Braves signed before spring training. Next year, I will continue my long-standing rule of never calling him "Frenchy" and cringing each time someone does.

Raw Numbers #32 Up!

2007-10-08T12:02:00.000-04:00

Link

Give it a look if you haven't yet. It is my look back at Andruw's career and what his legacy with the Braves actually is. Thought it turned out fairly good myself.

Expect a few player reviews up today as I try to get through it. Also, Baseball America was supposed to release the Top 20 Southern League prospects today, but they just changed the release date to October 9th, or for those scoring at home, tomorrow. Bastards!