It's All Friggin' Luck!

I love Dave O'Brien coming out with the five reasons why the Braves are in first. Kelly Johnson, obviously. He is a dynamic force at the head of the lineup, getting on base at an insane rate. Chipper Jones? Well, yeah. A healthy Chipper Jones that is locked in is among the best sights in baseball. The bullpen? Even if they had been average, it would have been impressive. They have been so much more. And Tim Hudson? Damn force. He's been awesome.

But that's where DOB should have ended. Four good reasons you cannot argue with.

But then, he had to add something else. Clutch. The Braves are clutch. And every sabermetric vein in my body screamed out.

Clutch is a pathetic reason. Oh, but look at the stats. With two outs, the Braves are hitting .298/.390/.489. Two outs and runners in scoring position, the Braves are up to .292/.436/.531.

But if we really want to base stuff on this, how about we talk about power pitchers? .229/.314/.427. Oh, God, we can't hit power pitchers! And flyball pitchers? .253/.355/.399. If we were facing Chuck James, we would lose every game!

The thing that is astonishing to me about this incredible lack of real facts is that DOB skips over something. If RISP and two outs is a major stat to focus on, why not just focus on RISP? Is that not clutch enough for this team to hit in? Well, their stats in those situations are simply .258/.394/.467. Good, yes, but their AVG and SLG is very similar to their overall statistics of .268/.354/.459.

God help the Braves if they get a man on second. They are batting .179/.367/.345 in those circumstances.

So, what does this mean? Well, the Braves are exceptionally disciplined this year. They make pitchers get them out as opposed to recent years of getting themselves out. That OBP does not lie. Let us not forget that pitchers are not quite as effective with runners on as they are when the bases are empty due to a myriad of reasons (for instance, runners causing alterations to delivery and stats themselves are altered because of sacrifices).

Is it really clutch, as DOB tries to point out, that is one of the top five reasons the Atlanta Braves are top five team? If this two out nonsense is true, then my question would almost have to be: why are the Braves not getting these runs home before the second out?

The truth is that any hitting coach worth his salt will tell you that the most important part of hitting is to play within yourself. Sounds dumb, but the idea is sound. Jason Bay, the Pittsburgh slugger who drove in 210 runs the last two seasons, knows a good deal about being a run producer right? Here is what he had to say.

"It's not so much a matter of raising your level in a clutch situation. It's a matter of keeping your level the same," Bay said. "Baseball is predicated on the idea that the people who are the most successful are the ones who do things the same way most consistently. It's not an emotion game like football or hockey, where you can go bust some skulls."

Jason Bay gets it, why doesn't Dave O'Brien?

Clutch is an illusion. You see Derek Jeter have a big game in the playoffs and suddenly, he's clutch. Well, why isn't he clutch in all of those games because Jeter hasn't reached base every postseason game he has played in? Was he just not clutch in those games? No, he is a good ballplayer and good ballplayers have good games because they are good ballplayers.

Chipper Jones is hitting .181 in his last 55 postseason at-bats, all coming in series that the Braves lost. Is he not clutch? Overall, Chipper Jones is a .305/.402/.544. In the postseason, he's .288/.411/.459. You ready to call Jones a choker?

Nah, don't bother. It's not that Chipper chokes or this team is clutch. Anyone who has taken one college stats course can tell you how absolutely ridiculous it is to buy into these terms. Most baseball players are not astute as Jason Bay, but then again, most of them didn't go to Gonzaga. Simply put, the Atlanta Braves are a good hitting team right now, and I'll give Terry Pendleton some credit that it pains me to give. Young players are progressing and being productive while the older players have yet to struggle any this year. Nearly 67% of the time when there are runners in scoring position and two outs, pitchers are facing KJ, Renty, Chipper, Andruw, McCann, or Francoeur. You wonder why this team is hitting well under those circumstances?