My favorite minor league analyst reviewing my favorite Braves prospect.
Tommy Hanson was drafted by the Braves in the 22nd round in 2005, a draft-and-follow pick from Riverside CC in California. He signed and made his pro debut in 2006, going 4-1, 2.09 with a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 51 innings for Danville in the Appalachian League, showing excellent control of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, but noted that he had higher potential and that there was a chance he could break through in '07 and '08, possibly emerging as a top prospect.
Hanson began 2007 with Rome in the Sally League, going 2-6 but with a 2.59 ERA and a 90/26 K/BB in 73 innings, with just 51 hits allowed. Promoted to Myrtle Beach at mid-season, he went 3-3, 4.20 with a 64/32 K/BB in 60 innings. The main negative here was an elevated home run rate at Myrtle Beach, with 10 homers given up in just 11 starts and 60 innings. Nevertheless, I was impressed with him and gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, a grade for which I took some flack. Most people seemed to think he was more of a Grade B/B- type guy.
I personally think the grade is fair. I think a B- grade would have been low and he is somewhere between B and B+ for sure, maybe closer to the latter. When I look at Hanson, I see a guy who stays young enough for his level, but does well each stop. Even his struggles at Myrtle Beach were not particularly tough to imagine because he had youth on his side.
2008 has been great so far: 3-1, 0.79 for Myrtle Beach, with a 42/10 K/BB in 34 innings and just 14 hits allowed, zero homers. Yes he's repeating the league, but given the way he's dominated so far I imagine a promotion to Double-A will be in order shortly and we'll get a better read on his progress then. He's just 21 so although he's a league-repeater he isn't old for the competition by any means.
I think inning-repeater is a bit disingenuous. Yes, he's repeating a level because he finished last year with the Pelicans, but that is a scant 94 total innings with the Pelicans.
Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.
Definitely my concern too. He fluctuates between 30% and 40% for groundballs. That is a bit of a fear. But then, if it works for Cole Hamels...
It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.
My grade? B+
I think he can be a solid starter in the mold Sickels suggests, possibly better. According to the comments, Hanson has brought increased velocity this year, allowing him to remain a strikeout threat.
Showing posts with label Hanson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hanson. Show all posts
Friday, May 9, 2008
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Early May Report
The Braves continue to drift along, a game under .500, and without much (get ready, Joe Morgan) consistency. However, when you look at the injuries, poor play, and lack of real definitions in the bullpen, the fact that the Braves aren't four or five games under .500 is a damn accomplishment.
Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.
The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.
The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.
Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.
-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.
-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.
-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.
-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.
-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.
-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.
-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.
-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.
Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.
The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.
The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.
Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.
-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.
-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.
-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.
-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.
-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.
-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.
-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.
-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Hey...it's already April 20th!
Been awhile. My apologies. Hopefully in a month or so, my posts will have a sense of regularity to it. As it is, it'll remain a weekend-only blog for the most part and that is the best you can expect right now. Oh wells.
The Braves are about to start the third game of a three game set with the Dodgers in which they've already taken the first two. The pitching for all its negatives has been pretty good. Third fewest hits, fifth fewest runs, least homers, and fifth most K's. How long that keeps up despite the asinine amount of injuries is unknown.
The hitting has been pretty good, too. Ranks in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG. The OBP should come up as players like Teix and KJ settle into their more normal numbers.
So, why are they still a game under .500? Well, baseball is shitty like that from time to time. They are three games under their expected win-loss record of 11-6, which is fourth behind Arizona, St. Louis, and New York in the NL.
Really, there isn't that much to be worrying about? The injuries are unfortunate, but only Moylan's injury seems serious. Soriano, Glav, and Hampton should return within the next few weeks.
I know a lot of people want to sound the alarm. KJ's not walking enough, Diaz looks surprisingly mortal (and playing himself into a platoon), the bullpen isn't good enough, Mark Kotsay is sure to get hurt, and Bobby's picking his nose again. But really, I don't see a lot to be worried about just yet.
---
Last year's Governor's Cup Champs, the Richmond Braves, are off to an 11-6 start. Top prospects Brent Lillibridge and Brandon Jones are both struggling, though Clint Sammons is posting an OPS near 1.000 and Josh Anderson is doing his thing. Jo-Jo Reyes is dominating AAA batters. 14 scoreless innings with five hits allowed, five walks, and 18 K's. Phil Stockman is looking good too.
Isaiah Kaaihue is off to another bad start for Mississippi, mustering a .516 OPS. The team ERA is well over 5.00 for the struggling M-Braves.
The M-Braves will likely get Thomas Hanson soon. Hanson, currently with the Pelicans, has allowed one unearned run in 22 innings. If that's not impressive enough, he's allowed five hits, walked five, and struck out 32.
Rome has a lot of talent, but the hitting and pitching is both struggling to get going. They may struggle this year, but I feel as far as prospects go, this is the best team the Braves minor leagues will support this year.
The Braves are about to start the third game of a three game set with the Dodgers in which they've already taken the first two. The pitching for all its negatives has been pretty good. Third fewest hits, fifth fewest runs, least homers, and fifth most K's. How long that keeps up despite the asinine amount of injuries is unknown.
The hitting has been pretty good, too. Ranks in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG. The OBP should come up as players like Teix and KJ settle into their more normal numbers.
So, why are they still a game under .500? Well, baseball is shitty like that from time to time. They are three games under their expected win-loss record of 11-6, which is fourth behind Arizona, St. Louis, and New York in the NL.
Really, there isn't that much to be worrying about? The injuries are unfortunate, but only Moylan's injury seems serious. Soriano, Glav, and Hampton should return within the next few weeks.
I know a lot of people want to sound the alarm. KJ's not walking enough, Diaz looks surprisingly mortal (and playing himself into a platoon), the bullpen isn't good enough, Mark Kotsay is sure to get hurt, and Bobby's picking his nose again. But really, I don't see a lot to be worried about just yet.
---
Last year's Governor's Cup Champs, the Richmond Braves, are off to an 11-6 start. Top prospects Brent Lillibridge and Brandon Jones are both struggling, though Clint Sammons is posting an OPS near 1.000 and Josh Anderson is doing his thing. Jo-Jo Reyes is dominating AAA batters. 14 scoreless innings with five hits allowed, five walks, and 18 K's. Phil Stockman is looking good too.
Isaiah Kaaihue is off to another bad start for Mississippi, mustering a .516 OPS. The team ERA is well over 5.00 for the struggling M-Braves.
The M-Braves will likely get Thomas Hanson soon. Hanson, currently with the Pelicans, has allowed one unearned run in 22 innings. If that's not impressive enough, he's allowed five hits, walked five, and struck out 32.
Rome has a lot of talent, but the hitting and pitching is both struggling to get going. They may struggle this year, but I feel as far as prospects go, this is the best team the Braves minor leagues will support this year.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
BaseballProspectus Top 100
Here are the Braves prospects on the list...
17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves
According to Kevin Goldstein, the Braves offensive future is packed, especially in the outfield. I think that's fair, but I think he underestimates the pitching a bit, especially Tommy Hanson and Cole Rohrbough. Both, I feel, are big prospects. Obviously, I feel that way about Hanson because I ranked him first in my top 30. The more and more I think about it, Rohrbough may have the higher ceiling. There may not be a prospect in the system with more control, strikeout ability, and a penchant for inducing groundballs.
But overall, this system remains barren of the biggest prospects in the minors. I think this list backs that up. But it continues to have a bunch of solid minor leaguers that other systems would love to have.
17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves
According to Kevin Goldstein, the Braves offensive future is packed, especially in the outfield. I think that's fair, but I think he underestimates the pitching a bit, especially Tommy Hanson and Cole Rohrbough. Both, I feel, are big prospects. Obviously, I feel that way about Hanson because I ranked him first in my top 30. The more and more I think about it, Rohrbough may have the higher ceiling. There may not be a prospect in the system with more control, strikeout ability, and a penchant for inducing groundballs.
But overall, this system remains barren of the biggest prospects in the minors. I think this list backs that up. But it continues to have a bunch of solid minor leaguers that other systems would love to have.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Couple links for your New Years Eve
Ran into a few links via google. One old, one newer. First, the old one.
Some blog called Variables Don't; Constants Aren't came out with the top ten pitching prospects in the Braves' system. This was their list.
1. joey devine, RHRP
2. kris medlen, RHRP - august 2008
3. jamie richmond, RHSP - mid 2009
4. tommy hanson, RHSP - late 2009
5. anthony lerew, RHSP
6. jo-jo reyes, LHSP - late 2008
7* cole rohrbough, LHSP - 2010
8* jose ortegano, RHSP - 2012
9* edgar osuna, RHSP - 2012
10.jose ascanio, RHRP
Embarrassing. Kids, if you don't know the minor leagues at all, don't try to judge a system you don't even know follow. Granted, when this person made the list, Jair Jurrjens was not in the system, but where is Jeff Locke? Steve Evarts? Julio Teheran? Oh, and the asterisks are the blogger's way of saying "these guys don't belong on the lists, but I didn't have any better options.
Rohrbourgh and Ortegano are routinely on top ten lists for the entire organization. Sensibly, that means they should be in the top five of a pitchers-only list. My list, which I hope to get started this week (sorry!), has Rohrbourgh (3) and Ortegano (8) in the top ten pitchers mentioned on the list and I only have Ortegano so low because he hasn't got into full season ball just yet.
BAD list. ANTHONY EFFIN LEREW AT NUMBER FIVE?
Seriously, wtf mates?
Elsewhere, the Richmond Times-Dispatch had this random article on Yunel Escobar. Maybe "Welcome to the Jungle" should play when he bats.
Okay, bye.
Some blog called Variables Don't; Constants Aren't came out with the top ten pitching prospects in the Braves' system. This was their list.
1. joey devine, RHRP
2. kris medlen, RHRP - august 2008
3. jamie richmond, RHSP - mid 2009
4. tommy hanson, RHSP - late 2009
5. anthony lerew, RHSP
6. jo-jo reyes, LHSP - late 2008
7* cole rohrbough, LHSP - 2010
8* jose ortegano, RHSP - 2012
9* edgar osuna, RHSP - 2012
10.jose ascanio, RHRP
Embarrassing. Kids, if you don't know the minor leagues at all, don't try to judge a system you don't even know follow. Granted, when this person made the list, Jair Jurrjens was not in the system, but where is Jeff Locke? Steve Evarts? Julio Teheran? Oh, and the asterisks are the blogger's way of saying "these guys don't belong on the lists, but I didn't have any better options.
Rohrbourgh and Ortegano are routinely on top ten lists for the entire organization. Sensibly, that means they should be in the top five of a pitchers-only list. My list, which I hope to get started this week (sorry!), has Rohrbourgh (3) and Ortegano (8) in the top ten pitchers mentioned on the list and I only have Ortegano so low because he hasn't got into full season ball just yet.
BAD list. ANTHONY EFFIN LEREW AT NUMBER FIVE?
Seriously, wtf mates?
Elsewhere, the Richmond Times-Dispatch had this random article on Yunel Escobar. Maybe "Welcome to the Jungle" should play when he bats.
Okay, bye.
Friday, November 23, 2007
2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown
As I begin to put things together for my 2007 Top 30 prospects, I figure it is time to look back at last year and where players ranked. As such, here is 21-30 from Raw Numbers #17.
30. Jose Ascanio – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Ascanio is the classic story of a great arm in need of just staying healthy. Ascanio played in just five games in 2005 and struggled greatly in 2006, yet he gets mentioned as a member on the Braves 40 man roster. Before his injury, Ascanio displayed exceptional control and a strikeout arm out of the bullpen. However, since his return, he is struggling to regain the control.
Nonetheless, I am putting him on this list out of respect and hope that the Atlanta Braves staff knows what they are doing when they take up a spot on their 40 man roster with him. That said, this is the same team that lost Adam Stern because they wanted to keep Mike Hessman. They also put Jonathan Johnson on their 40 man roster this off-season. Oh, and they signed Chris Woodward and Tanyon Sturtze. Okay, I have no idea why this guy is on the list.
ETA: Early 2009
Ascanio beat my ETA by a year-and-a-half and debuted with the Braves this year, often on the back-and-forth between the majors and minors before finding his spot. In general, he showed a great arm with a lot of stuff. The thing I mentioned being a drawback, his control, was not such a problem either. Expect a rise in this year's Top 30.
29. Will Startup – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Startup, selected four rounds after Joey Devine, was given the time Devine was not. Two years ago with Rome, he looked good over 25 games (which game him 50 on the year because he logged 25 as a Georgia Bulldog before being drafted). Last year, though, he was on fire with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi. Well, to be fair, he only played one game as a Pelican, but he struck out three in two scoreless innings so I am adding that. At Pearl, he allowed just a pair of runs in 25 innings before his promotion to Richmond.
This is where things got a little bogged down. The hits skyrocketed to more than a hit an inning while the strikeouts also took a hit. However, he pitched well down the stretch and could be in line to battle for a spot with the team this year. Startup has good enough control and should grow into a solid reliever. I rank him so low because I have heard claims of inconsistency and I am just not as convinced as others.
ETA: Mid 2007
Probably should have reached his ETA, but the higher ups kept him down before trading him with Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring. His inability to get a callup might be telling.
28. Brayan Pena – Catcher – Age: 25…The Cuban Contact Hitting Machine, Brayan Pena has logged 80 at-bats with Atlanta the last two years and seems sure to have the inside track to the backup catcher role with the big league club. A career .303 hitter in the minors, Pena lacks any kind of power and does not even show glimpses that he will grow into a power hitter. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter has never struck out more than 41 times in any given season and even swiped six (out of twelve) bases last year.
Troublesome about the catcher is his lack of plate discipline. His career high 31 was set in his first 64 games of his professional career while with Danville in 2001. He has never even come close as for as ratio of walks to plate appearances go. The other potential problem is Pena will not be mistaken for Eddie Perez or other such “defensive specialists.” With all of that said, considering his position, his contact skills, and age, Pena has the potential to be a solid backup who can step in and not be all Todd Pratt.
ETA: Early 2007
Pena got his chance and really didn't lose it, just had it taken from him. His defense seems to be a real problem.
27. Martin Prado – Second Base/Third Base – Age: 23…Nothing really stands out when it comes to Prado. He is a good hitter (.296) and decent at getting on base (.348), but nothing to write home about. He does not have a power element to add to the discussion and is also not an accomplished base stealer.
So, why does this guy have a real shot to replace Marcus Giles at second this year? Well, he is a pretty good defender and he keeps hitting. Last year, he jumped from Mississippi to Richmond to Atlanta and seemed to save his best hitting peripherals for the final trip, hitting .262 in 42 at-bats, but getting on base at a .340 clip and slugging .405. He seems to be your typical scrappy middle infielder who could surprise some people and may do so this year.
ETA: Mid 2007
He did all he could do in the spring to push KJ, but failed to secure any real playing time. He was fairly good with the team last year, though, and looks to have the inside track to a spot on the bench next year.
26. James Parr – Right Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…There are certain pitchers in the Braves system that can be classified as sleepers. Parr, a former fourth round selection, is one of those players. Parr displays great control and has put up a 1.27 WHIP during his first three professional seasons. More impressive than that is the fact he will be able to drink legally for the first time in February and has already performed well enough to deserve a promotion to AA.
I am not so sure he will actually get that promotion to start 2007 because he did have a 4.81 ERA at Myrtle Beach, but the rest of his numbers are not that concerning except a mediocre amount of homeruns surrendered. Just the same, at his age, Parr may have a chance to take some serious strides in the future.
ETA: Early-to-Mid 2009
Parr did head back to Myrtle Beach and was good enough to head to Mississippi soon after. His AA numbers were not as good, though. Seems to have a niche as a pitcher who needs time to complete each level. Could still sneak up the system next year, but his sleeper tag is beginning to fall.
25. Beau Jones – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…When he was selected out of Louisiana’s Destrehan High School, Jones had an easy time with the Gulf Coast League in 2005. The first rounder walked slightly too many batters (4.11 BB/9), but also struck out 10.54 per nine. Usually, the Braves hate to push pitchers over a level, but they felt Jones was ready for A-ball and sent him to Rome, skipping Danville. Bottom line…it did not go well.
Jones slumped to a 5.61 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and 83 walks in 110.2 innings. He did strike out 101, but you simply cannot put a little bow as trash and call it the silver lining. Jones probably needs another half-season at Rome, but he definitely has a talented arm. Hopefully, he gets going this season before he becomes a quick bust.
ETA: Early 2010
Jones found his place as a reliever with Rome last year and got enough attention to be part of the Teixiera deal in July. In the Rangers system, they put him back as a starter and he faired somewhat well.
24. Thomas Hanson – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…Perhaps one of the last draft-and-follows, Hanson was selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft and signed just before the 2006 draft. Before signing, he had no problem dominating the California junior college system. Well, the Appalachian League proved to not be much of a worry, either.
In 13 games, eight of them as a starter, Hanson gave up less than a runner an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. 56 strikeouts to 9 walks is an impressive number, especially for a young pitcher. Look for him to help solidify what should be a solid Rome Braves staff.
ETA: Late 2010
Spoiler alert, no one will make as dramatic a rise up my ranking as Hanson. I am a major fan of him. I see him possibly getting a shot in September of next year at the earliest. He may have posted the sickest 5-9 campaign last year.
23. Gregor Blanco – Outfield – Age: 23…I really have no idea what to think about with Blanco. I have this vibe that Blanco will not turn into a successful major league player, but then again, I could be (and probably will be) wrong. Last year, Blanco showed that miracles can happen and a Braves minor leaguer can post an OBP better than .400. Unfortunately, his SLG was much lower. This is not a homerun issue, but an extra-base issue in general. He simply lacks any power and only once, in 2004 with Myrtle Beach of all teams, was able to get his SLG over .400. Well, it was still .401, but still…impressive, huh?
In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Blanco has generally been a decent hitter in the terms of batting average. Last year, he set a new personal high with a .290 average between Mississippi and Richmond. Blanco reportedly possesses great speed, but is not a good base stealer. He has swiped better than 25 bases in all five of his minor league seasons, but only at a 70% clip. At the very least, the left-handed hitter could become Ryan Langerhans replacement. On the other hand, if things go his way, he could start in center in 2008 when Andruw Jones leaves.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2007
Same ole', same ole' with Blanco. He really did little to earn much support for next year as a starting candidate. Disappointing campaign to say the least.
22. Kris Medlin – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…The Braves drafted 12 pitchers out of 15 selections in the first eleven rounds and Medlin was picked up in the tenth from Santa Ana College. In 22 innings with Danville, the young righty allowed all of 14 hits, one earned run, and a pair of walks. Oh, and he struck out 36.
Medlin will likely join Rome as their primary closer and the Braves have freely shown an open attitude to pushing relievers through the system fast so Medlin could hit the fast track if he has a good half-season with the Rome Braves. But right now, he can be pretty satisfied in his 0.41 ERA.
ETA: Late 2009
Medlen (not Medlin as I repeatily misspelled it) had three stops last year so I was right on about hitting the fast track. He is due to start next year with his last stop, Mississippi. His numbers at Rome and Myrtle Beach were elite and he got a Devineish amount of grounders. He also dominated Hawaii. Could see him knock on the door for Atlanta this year.
21. Jamie Romak – Outfield – Age: 21…The Braves are really adopting an almost sabermetric point-of-view. Example: Romak. He has failed to impress at all as far as batting average is concerned. Last year, the Canadian hit .247 and has hit .233 over 209 games. Nonetheless, he has shown great plate discipline and pretty good power, especially in the ballparks he has played in. John Schuerholz = Moneyball?
These are the reasons why I put a .233 hitter in my Top 30. Maybe Romak will never hit .300, but if he hits .260 at the major league level, he will still be very valuable. Think Kelly Johnson, but more power.
ETA: Late 2009
Soon after, the Pirates loved my review that they acquired Romak in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal. He dominated in the Sally League before heading to the Carlona League where he struggled to a .863 OPS to go with his .252 AVG. I saw him with Lynchburg and he reminds me of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He has a hole in his swing, but he hits the ball very hard. The Pirates got a major power hitting project with this Canadian.
30. Jose Ascanio – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Ascanio is the classic story of a great arm in need of just staying healthy. Ascanio played in just five games in 2005 and struggled greatly in 2006, yet he gets mentioned as a member on the Braves 40 man roster. Before his injury, Ascanio displayed exceptional control and a strikeout arm out of the bullpen. However, since his return, he is struggling to regain the control.
Nonetheless, I am putting him on this list out of respect and hope that the Atlanta Braves staff knows what they are doing when they take up a spot on their 40 man roster with him. That said, this is the same team that lost Adam Stern because they wanted to keep Mike Hessman. They also put Jonathan Johnson on their 40 man roster this off-season. Oh, and they signed Chris Woodward and Tanyon Sturtze. Okay, I have no idea why this guy is on the list.
ETA: Early 2009
Ascanio beat my ETA by a year-and-a-half and debuted with the Braves this year, often on the back-and-forth between the majors and minors before finding his spot. In general, he showed a great arm with a lot of stuff. The thing I mentioned being a drawback, his control, was not such a problem either. Expect a rise in this year's Top 30.
29. Will Startup – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Startup, selected four rounds after Joey Devine, was given the time Devine was not. Two years ago with Rome, he looked good over 25 games (which game him 50 on the year because he logged 25 as a Georgia Bulldog before being drafted). Last year, though, he was on fire with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi. Well, to be fair, he only played one game as a Pelican, but he struck out three in two scoreless innings so I am adding that. At Pearl, he allowed just a pair of runs in 25 innings before his promotion to Richmond.
This is where things got a little bogged down. The hits skyrocketed to more than a hit an inning while the strikeouts also took a hit. However, he pitched well down the stretch and could be in line to battle for a spot with the team this year. Startup has good enough control and should grow into a solid reliever. I rank him so low because I have heard claims of inconsistency and I am just not as convinced as others.
ETA: Mid 2007
Probably should have reached his ETA, but the higher ups kept him down before trading him with Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring. His inability to get a callup might be telling.
28. Brayan Pena – Catcher – Age: 25…The Cuban Contact Hitting Machine, Brayan Pena has logged 80 at-bats with Atlanta the last two years and seems sure to have the inside track to the backup catcher role with the big league club. A career .303 hitter in the minors, Pena lacks any kind of power and does not even show glimpses that he will grow into a power hitter. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter has never struck out more than 41 times in any given season and even swiped six (out of twelve) bases last year.
Troublesome about the catcher is his lack of plate discipline. His career high 31 was set in his first 64 games of his professional career while with Danville in 2001. He has never even come close as for as ratio of walks to plate appearances go. The other potential problem is Pena will not be mistaken for Eddie Perez or other such “defensive specialists.” With all of that said, considering his position, his contact skills, and age, Pena has the potential to be a solid backup who can step in and not be all Todd Pratt.
ETA: Early 2007
Pena got his chance and really didn't lose it, just had it taken from him. His defense seems to be a real problem.
27. Martin Prado – Second Base/Third Base – Age: 23…Nothing really stands out when it comes to Prado. He is a good hitter (.296) and decent at getting on base (.348), but nothing to write home about. He does not have a power element to add to the discussion and is also not an accomplished base stealer.
So, why does this guy have a real shot to replace Marcus Giles at second this year? Well, he is a pretty good defender and he keeps hitting. Last year, he jumped from Mississippi to Richmond to Atlanta and seemed to save his best hitting peripherals for the final trip, hitting .262 in 42 at-bats, but getting on base at a .340 clip and slugging .405. He seems to be your typical scrappy middle infielder who could surprise some people and may do so this year.
ETA: Mid 2007
He did all he could do in the spring to push KJ, but failed to secure any real playing time. He was fairly good with the team last year, though, and looks to have the inside track to a spot on the bench next year.
26. James Parr – Right Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…There are certain pitchers in the Braves system that can be classified as sleepers. Parr, a former fourth round selection, is one of those players. Parr displays great control and has put up a 1.27 WHIP during his first three professional seasons. More impressive than that is the fact he will be able to drink legally for the first time in February and has already performed well enough to deserve a promotion to AA.
I am not so sure he will actually get that promotion to start 2007 because he did have a 4.81 ERA at Myrtle Beach, but the rest of his numbers are not that concerning except a mediocre amount of homeruns surrendered. Just the same, at his age, Parr may have a chance to take some serious strides in the future.
ETA: Early-to-Mid 2009
Parr did head back to Myrtle Beach and was good enough to head to Mississippi soon after. His AA numbers were not as good, though. Seems to have a niche as a pitcher who needs time to complete each level. Could still sneak up the system next year, but his sleeper tag is beginning to fall.
25. Beau Jones – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…When he was selected out of Louisiana’s Destrehan High School, Jones had an easy time with the Gulf Coast League in 2005. The first rounder walked slightly too many batters (4.11 BB/9), but also struck out 10.54 per nine. Usually, the Braves hate to push pitchers over a level, but they felt Jones was ready for A-ball and sent him to Rome, skipping Danville. Bottom line…it did not go well.
Jones slumped to a 5.61 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and 83 walks in 110.2 innings. He did strike out 101, but you simply cannot put a little bow as trash and call it the silver lining. Jones probably needs another half-season at Rome, but he definitely has a talented arm. Hopefully, he gets going this season before he becomes a quick bust.
ETA: Early 2010
Jones found his place as a reliever with Rome last year and got enough attention to be part of the Teixiera deal in July. In the Rangers system, they put him back as a starter and he faired somewhat well.
24. Thomas Hanson – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…Perhaps one of the last draft-and-follows, Hanson was selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft and signed just before the 2006 draft. Before signing, he had no problem dominating the California junior college system. Well, the Appalachian League proved to not be much of a worry, either.
In 13 games, eight of them as a starter, Hanson gave up less than a runner an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. 56 strikeouts to 9 walks is an impressive number, especially for a young pitcher. Look for him to help solidify what should be a solid Rome Braves staff.
ETA: Late 2010
Spoiler alert, no one will make as dramatic a rise up my ranking as Hanson. I am a major fan of him. I see him possibly getting a shot in September of next year at the earliest. He may have posted the sickest 5-9 campaign last year.
23. Gregor Blanco – Outfield – Age: 23…I really have no idea what to think about with Blanco. I have this vibe that Blanco will not turn into a successful major league player, but then again, I could be (and probably will be) wrong. Last year, Blanco showed that miracles can happen and a Braves minor leaguer can post an OBP better than .400. Unfortunately, his SLG was much lower. This is not a homerun issue, but an extra-base issue in general. He simply lacks any power and only once, in 2004 with Myrtle Beach of all teams, was able to get his SLG over .400. Well, it was still .401, but still…impressive, huh?
In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Blanco has generally been a decent hitter in the terms of batting average. Last year, he set a new personal high with a .290 average between Mississippi and Richmond. Blanco reportedly possesses great speed, but is not a good base stealer. He has swiped better than 25 bases in all five of his minor league seasons, but only at a 70% clip. At the very least, the left-handed hitter could become Ryan Langerhans replacement. On the other hand, if things go his way, he could start in center in 2008 when Andruw Jones leaves.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2007
Same ole', same ole' with Blanco. He really did little to earn much support for next year as a starting candidate. Disappointing campaign to say the least.
22. Kris Medlin – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…The Braves drafted 12 pitchers out of 15 selections in the first eleven rounds and Medlin was picked up in the tenth from Santa Ana College. In 22 innings with Danville, the young righty allowed all of 14 hits, one earned run, and a pair of walks. Oh, and he struck out 36.
Medlin will likely join Rome as their primary closer and the Braves have freely shown an open attitude to pushing relievers through the system fast so Medlin could hit the fast track if he has a good half-season with the Rome Braves. But right now, he can be pretty satisfied in his 0.41 ERA.
ETA: Late 2009
Medlen (not Medlin as I repeatily misspelled it) had three stops last year so I was right on about hitting the fast track. He is due to start next year with his last stop, Mississippi. His numbers at Rome and Myrtle Beach were elite and he got a Devineish amount of grounders. He also dominated Hawaii. Could see him knock on the door for Atlanta this year.
21. Jamie Romak – Outfield – Age: 21…The Braves are really adopting an almost sabermetric point-of-view. Example: Romak. He has failed to impress at all as far as batting average is concerned. Last year, the Canadian hit .247 and has hit .233 over 209 games. Nonetheless, he has shown great plate discipline and pretty good power, especially in the ballparks he has played in. John Schuerholz = Moneyball?
These are the reasons why I put a .233 hitter in my Top 30. Maybe Romak will never hit .300, but if he hits .260 at the major league level, he will still be very valuable. Think Kelly Johnson, but more power.
ETA: Late 2009
Soon after, the Pirates loved my review that they acquired Romak in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal. He dominated in the Sally League before heading to the Carlona League where he struggled to a .863 OPS to go with his .252 AVG. I saw him with Lynchburg and he reminds me of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He has a hole in his swing, but he hits the ball very hard. The Pirates got a major power hitting project with this Canadian.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Whoa...what the hell?
Been out of it for a couple of weeks and missed time to comment on a trade. Damn you, Wren. I had an agreement with Schuerholz to keep any amazing trades on the DL until I was ready to comment on it. For my part, I will catch up with a column to be posted Monday or Tuesday at chopnation.com so be sure to check it out. Both players acquired in the deal were soon after added to the Baseball America Top Ten Prospects for the Braves organization.
1. Jordan Schafer, of
2. Jason Heyward, of
3. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
4. Brandon Jones, of
5. Gorkys Hernandez, of
6. Brent Lillibridge, ss
7. Cole Rohrbough, lhp
8. Jeff Locke, lhp
9. Tommy Hanson, rhp
10. Julio Teheran, rhp
I think Hanson is a bit too low and Heyward might be a bit too high, but a good list overall. Elsewhere, a hilarious column found here poises the question, "Is David Eckstein as good as Renteria? Maybe, maybe not..." That made me chuckle.
What else is going on in Braves world? Well, Tom Glavine seems like a sure bet to sign. I guess I just have to accept that when Schuerholz and Wren talked about improving the staff, they really meant Glavine above anything.
Jeff Francoeur won a Gold Glove. Yet again, that award is a useless display of defensive ability. Congrats Francoeur nevertheless.
Andruw Jones met with Stan Kastan. Apparently, nothing was discussed. Andruw playing coy? Things are so different! Speaking of now former Braves, the Braves traded Hiram Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel, got nine games out of him, and declined his option. Oh, how miserable that deal makes me.
Wren flatout said the Braves will not be after a free agent closer. Wonder if Schuerholz has told Wren yet that loose lips sink ships or however that oddass phrase goes. Since taking over, Wren can't stop flapping his yap about whatever new thought he has. Still, if this one holds out, kudos.
Well, that's about all that is going on. I'm sure by the next time I post, the Braves will have signed Jesus because Wren loves to mess with my lack of posting during the week. Bastard.
1. Jordan Schafer, of
2. Jason Heyward, of
3. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
4. Brandon Jones, of
5. Gorkys Hernandez, of
6. Brent Lillibridge, ss
7. Cole Rohrbough, lhp
8. Jeff Locke, lhp
9. Tommy Hanson, rhp
10. Julio Teheran, rhp
I think Hanson is a bit too low and Heyward might be a bit too high, but a good list overall. Elsewhere, a hilarious column found here poises the question, "Is David Eckstein as good as Renteria? Maybe, maybe not..." That made me chuckle.
What else is going on in Braves world? Well, Tom Glavine seems like a sure bet to sign. I guess I just have to accept that when Schuerholz and Wren talked about improving the staff, they really meant Glavine above anything.
Jeff Francoeur won a Gold Glove. Yet again, that award is a useless display of defensive ability. Congrats Francoeur nevertheless.
Andruw Jones met with Stan Kastan. Apparently, nothing was discussed. Andruw playing coy? Things are so different! Speaking of now former Braves, the Braves traded Hiram Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel, got nine games out of him, and declined his option. Oh, how miserable that deal makes me.
Wren flatout said the Braves will not be after a free agent closer. Wonder if Schuerholz has told Wren yet that loose lips sink ships or however that oddass phrase goes. Since taking over, Wren can't stop flapping his yap about whatever new thought he has. Still, if this one holds out, kudos.
Well, that's about all that is going on. I'm sure by the next time I post, the Braves will have signed Jesus because Wren loves to mess with my lack of posting during the week. Bastard.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Baseball America: Carolina League Top 20
Braves development is well recognized with the Carolina League best prospects of 2007.
1. Jordan Schafer, of, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
3. Elvis Andrus, ss, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
4. Max Ramirez, c, Kinston Indians
8. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
18. Jairo Cuevas, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
...
Schafer has quietly climbed up the rankings from near-unknown to possible long-term center fielder in the span of, oh, a year. Schafer is a former Top 13 year-old in the country, according to Baseball America, who the Braves selected in the 3rd round of 2005. A former top prep pitcher who had a scholarship to Clemson, Schafer was quickly moved to the outfield by the Braves.
He struggled in the Gulf Coast League in 2005 and didn't show much more talent in 2006, but this year, the player who has been compared to Mark Kotsay, J.D. Drew, and Shawn Green absolutely took off. He reached double digits in 2B-3B-HR, stole 23 bases, and posted a clip of .312/.374/.513. By the way, he played most of the season in the Carolina League (after a month with Rome to get going) and the Carolina is a tough league to hit in, especially his home park in Myrtle Beach.
I didn't even rank Schafer when I did a top 30 prospects last year for chopnation. He is probably a year-and-a-half away (making a stopgap in center field all the more likely as opposed to a long-term contract). Before the season, Brandon Jones was the only major outfield prospect the Braves had. That much has changed.
Of the others ranked, of course Andrus is with the Rangers organization now and Max Ramirez was traded to the Indians for Wickmoo last year. Hanson's the guy I really like. In his first full professional year, he started at Rome and finished with Myrtle Beach. All told, his record of 5-9 is deceptive. Neither team hit for him. Solid ERA, but what grabs my attention is the 154 K's in 133 innings. He gave up a lot of homers, but if you can keep the K/9 rate high, you got a lot of good things going.
Jairo, or J.C., Cuevas is a bit of a surprise. I don't really see him one of the top 20 prospects in the Braves organization...not even sure he's in the top 30...so him making the top 20 for the league grabbed my attention. He has a good arm, probably projects to be a reliever though he started this year. Needs to do something about the walks (71 in 132 innings), though.
1. Jordan Schafer, of, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
3. Elvis Andrus, ss, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
4. Max Ramirez, c, Kinston Indians
8. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
18. Jairo Cuevas, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
...
Schafer has quietly climbed up the rankings from near-unknown to possible long-term center fielder in the span of, oh, a year. Schafer is a former Top 13 year-old in the country, according to Baseball America, who the Braves selected in the 3rd round of 2005. A former top prep pitcher who had a scholarship to Clemson, Schafer was quickly moved to the outfield by the Braves.
He struggled in the Gulf Coast League in 2005 and didn't show much more talent in 2006, but this year, the player who has been compared to Mark Kotsay, J.D. Drew, and Shawn Green absolutely took off. He reached double digits in 2B-3B-HR, stole 23 bases, and posted a clip of .312/.374/.513. By the way, he played most of the season in the Carolina League (after a month with Rome to get going) and the Carolina is a tough league to hit in, especially his home park in Myrtle Beach.
I didn't even rank Schafer when I did a top 30 prospects last year for chopnation. He is probably a year-and-a-half away (making a stopgap in center field all the more likely as opposed to a long-term contract). Before the season, Brandon Jones was the only major outfield prospect the Braves had. That much has changed.
Of the others ranked, of course Andrus is with the Rangers organization now and Max Ramirez was traded to the Indians for Wickmoo last year. Hanson's the guy I really like. In his first full professional year, he started at Rome and finished with Myrtle Beach. All told, his record of 5-9 is deceptive. Neither team hit for him. Solid ERA, but what grabs my attention is the 154 K's in 133 innings. He gave up a lot of homers, but if you can keep the K/9 rate high, you got a lot of good things going.
Jairo, or J.C., Cuevas is a bit of a surprise. I don't really see him one of the top 20 prospects in the Braves organization...not even sure he's in the top 30...so him making the top 20 for the league grabbed my attention. He has a good arm, probably projects to be a reliever though he started this year. Needs to do something about the walks (71 in 132 innings), though.
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