My favorite minor league analyst reviewing my favorite Braves prospect.
Tommy Hanson was drafted by the Braves in the 22nd round in 2005, a draft-and-follow pick from Riverside CC in California. He signed and made his pro debut in 2006, going 4-1, 2.09 with a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 51 innings for Danville in the Appalachian League, showing excellent control of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, but noted that he had higher potential and that there was a chance he could break through in '07 and '08, possibly emerging as a top prospect.
Hanson began 2007 with Rome in the Sally League, going 2-6 but with a 2.59 ERA and a 90/26 K/BB in 73 innings, with just 51 hits allowed. Promoted to Myrtle Beach at mid-season, he went 3-3, 4.20 with a 64/32 K/BB in 60 innings. The main negative here was an elevated home run rate at Myrtle Beach, with 10 homers given up in just 11 starts and 60 innings. Nevertheless, I was impressed with him and gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, a grade for which I took some flack. Most people seemed to think he was more of a Grade B/B- type guy.
I personally think the grade is fair. I think a B- grade would have been low and he is somewhere between B and B+ for sure, maybe closer to the latter. When I look at Hanson, I see a guy who stays young enough for his level, but does well each stop. Even his struggles at Myrtle Beach were not particularly tough to imagine because he had youth on his side.
2008 has been great so far: 3-1, 0.79 for Myrtle Beach, with a 42/10 K/BB in 34 innings and just 14 hits allowed, zero homers. Yes he's repeating the league, but given the way he's dominated so far I imagine a promotion to Double-A will be in order shortly and we'll get a better read on his progress then. He's just 21 so although he's a league-repeater he isn't old for the competition by any means.
I think inning-repeater is a bit disingenuous. Yes, he's repeating a level because he finished last year with the Pelicans, but that is a scant 94 total innings with the Pelicans.
Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.
Definitely my concern too. He fluctuates between 30% and 40% for groundballs. That is a bit of a fear. But then, if it works for Cole Hamels...
It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.
My grade? B+
I think he can be a solid starter in the mold Sickels suggests, possibly better. According to the comments, Hanson has brought increased velocity this year, allowing him to remain a strikeout threat.
Showing posts with label Prospects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prospects. Show all posts
Friday, May 9, 2008
Sunday, February 3, 2008
BaseballProspectus Top 100
Here are the Braves prospects on the list...
17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves
According to Kevin Goldstein, the Braves offensive future is packed, especially in the outfield. I think that's fair, but I think he underestimates the pitching a bit, especially Tommy Hanson and Cole Rohrbough. Both, I feel, are big prospects. Obviously, I feel that way about Hanson because I ranked him first in my top 30. The more and more I think about it, Rohrbough may have the higher ceiling. There may not be a prospect in the system with more control, strikeout ability, and a penchant for inducing groundballs.
But overall, this system remains barren of the biggest prospects in the minors. I think this list backs that up. But it continues to have a bunch of solid minor leaguers that other systems would love to have.
17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves
According to Kevin Goldstein, the Braves offensive future is packed, especially in the outfield. I think that's fair, but I think he underestimates the pitching a bit, especially Tommy Hanson and Cole Rohrbough. Both, I feel, are big prospects. Obviously, I feel that way about Hanson because I ranked him first in my top 30. The more and more I think about it, Rohrbough may have the higher ceiling. There may not be a prospect in the system with more control, strikeout ability, and a penchant for inducing groundballs.
But overall, this system remains barren of the biggest prospects in the minors. I think this list backs that up. But it continues to have a bunch of solid minor leaguers that other systems would love to have.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Links A'Hoy!
Lots of random links since the beginning of the new year.
-The Herald Sun out of Australia has an article on Peter Moylan out. Your basic "God, this Aussie is ever so cool" article with movie references. Sorry Lauren, not much new info here.
-DOB talks about Braves FanFest and the players that will be, but also touches on Jeff Francoeur. Nothing really amazing, just a look back at Francoeur and nothing on a possible contract. I wonder if this season is the season Francoeur signs or drags it through arbitration first.
-Ohhh, a DOB reference _AND_ a Bowman one. Marky boy is out with a look at the Braves catchers. If Bowman is the propaganda specialist for the Braves, Javy Lopez is the backup catcher as I said. Some have commented that Javy's going to have to *earn* his shot, but even if he's outplayed, I believe he has it clinched.
While McCann is certainly an adept offensive catcher, he has room for improvement from a defensive perspective. His .987 fielding percentage ranked second-worst among NL catchers. In addition, only Milwaukee's Johnny Estrada and Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba had a worse caught-stealing percentage.
While I agree he badly needs to improve, what the hell does fielding percentage tell you about a catcher? I don't mind people not using stats or hating stats all together. But if you choose to use them, at least use reasonable ones. Caught-stealing percentage is decent, though you can't ignore the pitchers' impact on things.
Still, McCann's knowledge of pitchers allowed Braves pitchers to produce a 3.90 ERA when he was behind the plate. That figure ranked first among all NL catchers.
Ahjesus, not catcher's ERA. Pick a stat that tells you something ABOUT the catcher's ability, Mark.
-Scott Proctor's Arm, a blog on the Yankees, has this tidbit. "Matt DeSalvo also signed a minor-league contract with the Atlanta Braves." Baseball America confirms it. I'd do a Meet and Greet, but not a lot to meet. He had a couple of decent games with the Yanks last year, but is all guts no talent, it seems.
-Oh, my first ten prospects of my Top 30 prospect list is finally up at chopnation.
-And buh bye.
-The Herald Sun out of Australia has an article on Peter Moylan out. Your basic "God, this Aussie is ever so cool" article with movie references. Sorry Lauren, not much new info here.
-DOB talks about Braves FanFest and the players that will be, but also touches on Jeff Francoeur. Nothing really amazing, just a look back at Francoeur and nothing on a possible contract. I wonder if this season is the season Francoeur signs or drags it through arbitration first.
-Ohhh, a DOB reference _AND_ a Bowman one. Marky boy is out with a look at the Braves catchers. If Bowman is the propaganda specialist for the Braves, Javy Lopez is the backup catcher as I said. Some have commented that Javy's going to have to *earn* his shot, but even if he's outplayed, I believe he has it clinched.
While McCann is certainly an adept offensive catcher, he has room for improvement from a defensive perspective. His .987 fielding percentage ranked second-worst among NL catchers. In addition, only Milwaukee's Johnny Estrada and Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba had a worse caught-stealing percentage.
While I agree he badly needs to improve, what the hell does fielding percentage tell you about a catcher? I don't mind people not using stats or hating stats all together. But if you choose to use them, at least use reasonable ones. Caught-stealing percentage is decent, though you can't ignore the pitchers' impact on things.
Still, McCann's knowledge of pitchers allowed Braves pitchers to produce a 3.90 ERA when he was behind the plate. That figure ranked first among all NL catchers.
Ahjesus, not catcher's ERA. Pick a stat that tells you something ABOUT the catcher's ability, Mark.
-Scott Proctor's Arm, a blog on the Yankees, has this tidbit. "Matt DeSalvo also signed a minor-league contract with the Atlanta Braves." Baseball America confirms it. I'd do a Meet and Greet, but not a lot to meet. He had a couple of decent games with the Yanks last year, but is all guts no talent, it seems.
-Oh, my first ten prospects of my Top 30 prospect list is finally up at chopnation.
-And buh bye.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Couple links for your New Years Eve
Ran into a few links via google. One old, one newer. First, the old one.
Some blog called Variables Don't; Constants Aren't came out with the top ten pitching prospects in the Braves' system. This was their list.
1. joey devine, RHRP
2. kris medlen, RHRP - august 2008
3. jamie richmond, RHSP - mid 2009
4. tommy hanson, RHSP - late 2009
5. anthony lerew, RHSP
6. jo-jo reyes, LHSP - late 2008
7* cole rohrbough, LHSP - 2010
8* jose ortegano, RHSP - 2012
9* edgar osuna, RHSP - 2012
10.jose ascanio, RHRP
Embarrassing. Kids, if you don't know the minor leagues at all, don't try to judge a system you don't even know follow. Granted, when this person made the list, Jair Jurrjens was not in the system, but where is Jeff Locke? Steve Evarts? Julio Teheran? Oh, and the asterisks are the blogger's way of saying "these guys don't belong on the lists, but I didn't have any better options.
Rohrbourgh and Ortegano are routinely on top ten lists for the entire organization. Sensibly, that means they should be in the top five of a pitchers-only list. My list, which I hope to get started this week (sorry!), has Rohrbourgh (3) and Ortegano (8) in the top ten pitchers mentioned on the list and I only have Ortegano so low because he hasn't got into full season ball just yet.
BAD list. ANTHONY EFFIN LEREW AT NUMBER FIVE?
Seriously, wtf mates?
Elsewhere, the Richmond Times-Dispatch had this random article on Yunel Escobar. Maybe "Welcome to the Jungle" should play when he bats.
Okay, bye.
Some blog called Variables Don't; Constants Aren't came out with the top ten pitching prospects in the Braves' system. This was their list.
1. joey devine, RHRP
2. kris medlen, RHRP - august 2008
3. jamie richmond, RHSP - mid 2009
4. tommy hanson, RHSP - late 2009
5. anthony lerew, RHSP
6. jo-jo reyes, LHSP - late 2008
7* cole rohrbough, LHSP - 2010
8* jose ortegano, RHSP - 2012
9* edgar osuna, RHSP - 2012
10.jose ascanio, RHRP
Embarrassing. Kids, if you don't know the minor leagues at all, don't try to judge a system you don't even know follow. Granted, when this person made the list, Jair Jurrjens was not in the system, but where is Jeff Locke? Steve Evarts? Julio Teheran? Oh, and the asterisks are the blogger's way of saying "these guys don't belong on the lists, but I didn't have any better options.
Rohrbourgh and Ortegano are routinely on top ten lists for the entire organization. Sensibly, that means they should be in the top five of a pitchers-only list. My list, which I hope to get started this week (sorry!), has Rohrbourgh (3) and Ortegano (8) in the top ten pitchers mentioned on the list and I only have Ortegano so low because he hasn't got into full season ball just yet.
BAD list. ANTHONY EFFIN LEREW AT NUMBER FIVE?
Seriously, wtf mates?
Elsewhere, the Richmond Times-Dispatch had this random article on Yunel Escobar. Maybe "Welcome to the Jungle" should play when he bats.
Okay, bye.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown Part 3
Here is the final ten of last year's top 30 prospects. Expect this year's top thirty to begin within a few days over at chopnation.com.
10. Jamie Richmond – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Here is one of the best, but not well-known stats of the year. In 67 innings, Richmond struck out 52 and (…wait for it…) walked FOUR. Let me emphasize that. For every person Jamie Richmond walked last year, he struck out 10.5 batters. Granted, he was at Danville, but still, how can you not get excited by that?
Richmond was a 31st rounder in 2004 and did not play until the following season, a likely draft-and-follow. He showed solid skills in eight games out of the bullpen for the GCL Braves, but it was this year that Richmond exploded. He also did not allow a homerun, just 51 hits, and ended the year with a 7-1 record, 1.21 ERA, and a 0.82 WHIP. It might be just one year and I might be crazy to rank Richmond this high, but he deserves with such an incredible year.
ETA: Mid 2010
Richmond is one of my favorite hurlers, though he was not as amazing this year as he was in 2006. He was one of Rome's most consistent pitchers, leading them in starts, innings, and K's. His 3.05 ERA was decent, but his 1.20 WHIP was hardly anything to write home about. Obviously, his K/BB ratio couldn't be as good, but 98 K's to just 25 walks is not a bad thing. I think he can rebound to have an even bigger year and my disappointment over what is considered a pretty decent year speaks well of what I expect out of Richmond.
9. Neftali Feliz – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 18…Ranked eighth in Baseball America’s Gulf Coast League rankings, Feliz is getting more and more press seemingly every time someone posts a Top Braves prospect list. My rankings will be no different. While the Dominican reportedly has a wild delivery, if he stays healthy, he could be special.
In his first professional season, he tossed 29 homerless innings, striking out 42. The 14 walks and four wild pitches show a hurler needing a little harnessing, but nothing too out of the ordinary. He received equal time as a reliever and a starter so it is unknown where the Braves ultimately see him, but with time, he could be the next Jose Capellan (a phenom) or something even better.
ETA: Early 2011
Feliz remains a big-time arm in need of sculpting, but it will not be done with the Braves. He played very well with Danville until he was included in the Mark Teixeria deal. Texas pushed him to get a taste of A-ball and his numbers were not quite as good.
8. Van Pope – Third Base – Age: 23…Pope has quietly been a solid player for the Braves since they selected him in the 2004 draft in the fifth round. Last year with Myrtle Beach, he showed impressive power despite playing with the Pelicans as he pitched in 31 doubles and 15 homeruns. If that was not enough, he added a .090 IsoOBP.
With Eric Campbell in the system, it is understandable why Pope has received so little press. However, Pope has a pretty good chance of succeeding Chipper Jones in the future. He is also an excellent defender and that will be welcomed after watching Jones’s slow reaction time. Recently, Pope made the Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospects forn the Braves organization and provided he performs well at Mississippi, he could be knocking on the door pretty soon. I look for him to get some experience at first base to add some versatility.
ETA: Early 2009
Pope was extremly solid in 2006, but was abysmal last season. He remains one of the best infield defenders in the organization, but his time as a pretty good prospect is dwindling. Last year with Mississippi, Pope failed to secure a .300 OBP and OPS'd .638. While there are few third base prospects close to the majors to push him, his bat, which was always a question mark, will need to be much better next year.
7. Scott Thorman – First Base/Outfield – Age: 25…The only thing Scott Robert Thorman has done since he was drafted with the 30th overall selection in 2000 is hit. While his numbers do not stand up to some of the big-time first base prospects in the game, considering the pitcher-friendly parks he has called home during his ride up the minor league system, I believe we have yet to see the best he can provide.
Thorman got his first shot at major league pitching this year and was immediately thrust into the third spot in the Braves order for a time. The first person he faced? Curt Schilling. Welcome to the big leagues. All in all, Thorman showed explosive power (16 of his 30 hits went for extra bases), but struggled with consistent contact, showing little of his decent plate discipline. Ultimately, I see Thorman settling into a very Adam LaRoche-like offensive profile. His best power seasons have come in the past two years so he still may have some power he has yet to take advantage of.
ETA: Early 2007
Well, we all know how Thor's 2007 went. After essentially being given the lionshare of first base duties, the beast from Canada flopped. He continued to show explosive power, but he rarely hit the ball. Finally, the Braves acquired Teix and Thor spent the final two months as a bat off the bench. He could continue to be that, but his lack of verstility on the bench could be a problem. I believe he will be traded sometime.
6. Joey Devine – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 23…Not every college reliever is built the same. The Braves were tempted by bad pitching in their own bullpen, excellent minor league numbers by Devine, and success stories like Huston Street and thrust Devine into a significant role in their bullpen in 2005. It did not go too well, I am afraid. Everyone knows about the two Grand Slams he gave up in his first two games. In addition, he gave up Chris Burke’s 18th inning homerun to end the Braves season. Last year, he looked stellar in spring training, though late struggles had him headed to Richmond, which was the right idea. Injuries prompted a call-up that produced little success and injuries of his own quickly followed. In September, Devine was used as a situational righty (a ROOGY?) to moderate promise.
That is all things we know right now. Where Devine goes from here is still to be decided. The former Wolfpack member from NC State has a great arm. He reminds me of Tim Spooneybarger in the sense that he has great natural movement. Talent wise, Devine could be anything from a great setup reliever to a shutdown closer. Will he get there? Probably not next year, but I think he will eventually get it together as long as Atlanta treads softly.
ETA: Mid 2007
Devine finally started to put it together as he was healthy and effective for the entire 2007 campaign. He finished fourth in the Southern League in saves with 16 in 33 games. He was also on the Ascanio/Devine shuttle between Mississippi and Atlanta where each pitcher would get a game or two in the majors before getting demoted again. He added to his resume with an impressive 17 games with the eventual International League champs, Richmond. His control remained problematic in the majors, but he was much more confident in ten outings. Out of options, Devine's time to shine is now.
5. Brandon Jones – Outfield – Age: 23…In the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, they basically killed off “draft-and-follow” players, or players that are drafted, play a season at a junior college or whatever, and then the team re-evaluates if they want to sign him or if the player wants to re-enter the draft. Jones was one of those players and was a big find for the Braves after he was selected in the 23rd round. In three years since he signed merely days before the 2004 draft, he has handled himself to the tune of a .819 OPS.
Jones has not played a full season in any year (signing late and injuries played their part), but after 58 games with Myrtle Beach this year, he was promoted to Mississippi and actually hit better than he had at the Beach, showing off a .477 SLG power and a .273 batting average. His projections vary, but I see him along the lines of 20-25 HR, solid contact skills, and generally a good hitter. Maybe not an All-Star, but a guy who keeps a position from being a weakness.
ETA: Early 2009
Like many of the players who had Mississippi dominating the first half, Jones earned promotions the rest of the year and even got a chance in the majors in September. In a season that saw the Braves trade many of their top prospects and other top prospects regressed, Jones flourished for the Braves, hitting a combined .295/.367/.490 with 19 homers and 100 RBIs for Mississippi and Richmond. That 100 RBIs was best in the organization. He went 2-for-19 in the majors with a double, but has a good chance of competing for a job in the spring.
4. Eric Campbell – Third Base – Age: 21…In 2005, Campbell, the former second rounder from Indiana, showed why the Braves selected him as high as they did for he took home just about every conceivable honor for his success at advanced rookie level Danville. Last year, he was almost as impressive, hitting .296 with a .517 SLG. Adding to that, he stole 18 bases and mashed 22 homeruns for Rome.
Where Campbell will play is up for debate. Most believe he will be moved to second and become the long-term answer at that position, opening third base for Van Pope. His experience at second in the Hawaii Winter League gives credence to that. Campbell is a hacker like Jeff Francoeur, but seems to make more contact, striking out in just 15% of his at-bats while playing most of 2006 at a younger-than-average age for his level. Keep an eye on Campbell. He could be fast tracked if he handles Myrtle Beach.
ETA: Late 2008/Early 2009
Spoiler alert - none of the top four in this list will be in the 2007 top ten. The top three were all traded, but Campbell's attitude and regression as a player was his biggest fault. He batted .221/.312/.406 in 81 injury-and-suspension hurt games for Myrtle Beach. The walks, 36, were a new personal high and he showed enough power, but simply sucked. He will need a major bounceback year to remain in the Braves plans.
3. Matt Harrison – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Matt Harrison has a real shot of making some moves in the organization as soon as this season. Since he was selected with the 97th choice in 2003, all Harrison has done is become more and more impressive. While with Danville in 2004, he gave up nearly ten hits per nine innings, yet considering his age of 18, even keeping the hits per nine innings fewer than ten was impressive. He came onto the map while again playing under the average age of the league the following season, going 12-7 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Last year, between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, he again kept performing at a high level.
If Harrison does have any problems it is the fact he gives up a good amount of homeruns considering the parks he has played in. But because he walks under two per nine innings and has a career WHIP of 1.17, he can give up 35 homeruns a year and still be a leader on the staff. Harrison is the one serious pitching prospect the Braves currently have in their system. If labels make you happy, Harrison could become a number two starter in the upcoming years.
ETA: Late 2007/Early 2008
My favorite Braves pitching prospect is no more after he was included in the Teix trade. Harrison dealt with injuries and was not as effective as he was the previous year, posting a 1.30 WHIP. The addition of Beau Jones to the trade was said to be a little backup in case Harrison was not able to stay healthy. He was named one of the Arizona Fall League's top 22 players to finish the year however.
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Catcher – Age: 21…With Salty, his 2006 season needs to be taken into context. He suffered from a wrist injury and considering the fact he turned 21 last May, he was pretty young to play in the Southern League. Whether or not he repeats the level next year, Salty still remains among the crème of the crop as far as prospects go in the organization and one of the top three catcher prospects in the minor leagues. His power struggled last year, but he showed explosive power with Myrtle Beach in 2005. Posting a .200 IsoSLG while playing half of your games in that pitcher’s paradise is astonishing.
Salty has the potential to be the best power hitter the Braves have developed in a decade. His plate discipline is incredible and he is able to rebound as he should, Salty will once again re-establish himself as one of the best prospects in baseball. However, will he go the Andy Marte way and find himself traded or will he be moved to a position so the Braves can get him into the lineup? Hopefully, the latter.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008
What is there that needs to be said about Salty? After absolutely crushing the Southern League for a month, Salty was promoted to the majors and held his own. Over his next 44 games, Salty hit .284/.333/.411 and showed a strong throwing arm. Saldy, the Teix trade gobbled him up, too. He hit for more power with Texas, but his AVG/OBP slumped. I still think he will be a yearly .900 OPS guy within 2-3 years.
1. Elvis Andrus – Shortstop – Age: 18…Elvis may be the most popular Braves prospect right now and when you are already playing A-ball at 18, you should be pretty popular. In fact, he did not turn 18 until late August so he spent most of the season at 17. Still, he hit .265. Andrus is most definitely for real.
It is hard to project Andrus so I will say this. He has the potential to be the best the shortstop in Braves history. Too much? When you take into account his age, his relative success, and the fact that scouts love his possibilities, I have to believe that once he develops a little more, both physically and mentally, he is going to be a consistent force for years to come.
For me to rank him this high took a lot of convincing because he does not have the resumes that Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia easily present. However, there is not a Brave in the system right now that I believe can be Andrus’ equal in the terms of what he can do. Whether or not he actually does…well, that is why they play the games, correct?
ETA: Early 2010
It still amazes me what Teix cost the Braves. My top three prospects from last year, not to mention my #9. Andrus turned 19 in late August and finished strong to go with his birthday as he hit .300/.369/.373 after the trade. He was on his way to losing the number one slot in this organization before the trade as he hit .244/.330/.335 with Myrtle Beach. Just the same, there is a lot to be excited about with Andrus and he too was part of the Top 22 AFL players this year.
10. Jamie Richmond – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Here is one of the best, but not well-known stats of the year. In 67 innings, Richmond struck out 52 and (…wait for it…) walked FOUR. Let me emphasize that. For every person Jamie Richmond walked last year, he struck out 10.5 batters. Granted, he was at Danville, but still, how can you not get excited by that?
Richmond was a 31st rounder in 2004 and did not play until the following season, a likely draft-and-follow. He showed solid skills in eight games out of the bullpen for the GCL Braves, but it was this year that Richmond exploded. He also did not allow a homerun, just 51 hits, and ended the year with a 7-1 record, 1.21 ERA, and a 0.82 WHIP. It might be just one year and I might be crazy to rank Richmond this high, but he deserves with such an incredible year.
ETA: Mid 2010
Richmond is one of my favorite hurlers, though he was not as amazing this year as he was in 2006. He was one of Rome's most consistent pitchers, leading them in starts, innings, and K's. His 3.05 ERA was decent, but his 1.20 WHIP was hardly anything to write home about. Obviously, his K/BB ratio couldn't be as good, but 98 K's to just 25 walks is not a bad thing. I think he can rebound to have an even bigger year and my disappointment over what is considered a pretty decent year speaks well of what I expect out of Richmond.
9. Neftali Feliz – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 18…Ranked eighth in Baseball America’s Gulf Coast League rankings, Feliz is getting more and more press seemingly every time someone posts a Top Braves prospect list. My rankings will be no different. While the Dominican reportedly has a wild delivery, if he stays healthy, he could be special.
In his first professional season, he tossed 29 homerless innings, striking out 42. The 14 walks and four wild pitches show a hurler needing a little harnessing, but nothing too out of the ordinary. He received equal time as a reliever and a starter so it is unknown where the Braves ultimately see him, but with time, he could be the next Jose Capellan (a phenom) or something even better.
ETA: Early 2011
Feliz remains a big-time arm in need of sculpting, but it will not be done with the Braves. He played very well with Danville until he was included in the Mark Teixeria deal. Texas pushed him to get a taste of A-ball and his numbers were not quite as good.
8. Van Pope – Third Base – Age: 23…Pope has quietly been a solid player for the Braves since they selected him in the 2004 draft in the fifth round. Last year with Myrtle Beach, he showed impressive power despite playing with the Pelicans as he pitched in 31 doubles and 15 homeruns. If that was not enough, he added a .090 IsoOBP.
With Eric Campbell in the system, it is understandable why Pope has received so little press. However, Pope has a pretty good chance of succeeding Chipper Jones in the future. He is also an excellent defender and that will be welcomed after watching Jones’s slow reaction time. Recently, Pope made the Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospects forn the Braves organization and provided he performs well at Mississippi, he could be knocking on the door pretty soon. I look for him to get some experience at first base to add some versatility.
ETA: Early 2009
Pope was extremly solid in 2006, but was abysmal last season. He remains one of the best infield defenders in the organization, but his time as a pretty good prospect is dwindling. Last year with Mississippi, Pope failed to secure a .300 OBP and OPS'd .638. While there are few third base prospects close to the majors to push him, his bat, which was always a question mark, will need to be much better next year.
7. Scott Thorman – First Base/Outfield – Age: 25…The only thing Scott Robert Thorman has done since he was drafted with the 30th overall selection in 2000 is hit. While his numbers do not stand up to some of the big-time first base prospects in the game, considering the pitcher-friendly parks he has called home during his ride up the minor league system, I believe we have yet to see the best he can provide.
Thorman got his first shot at major league pitching this year and was immediately thrust into the third spot in the Braves order for a time. The first person he faced? Curt Schilling. Welcome to the big leagues. All in all, Thorman showed explosive power (16 of his 30 hits went for extra bases), but struggled with consistent contact, showing little of his decent plate discipline. Ultimately, I see Thorman settling into a very Adam LaRoche-like offensive profile. His best power seasons have come in the past two years so he still may have some power he has yet to take advantage of.
ETA: Early 2007
Well, we all know how Thor's 2007 went. After essentially being given the lionshare of first base duties, the beast from Canada flopped. He continued to show explosive power, but he rarely hit the ball. Finally, the Braves acquired Teix and Thor spent the final two months as a bat off the bench. He could continue to be that, but his lack of verstility on the bench could be a problem. I believe he will be traded sometime.
6. Joey Devine – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 23…Not every college reliever is built the same. The Braves were tempted by bad pitching in their own bullpen, excellent minor league numbers by Devine, and success stories like Huston Street and thrust Devine into a significant role in their bullpen in 2005. It did not go too well, I am afraid. Everyone knows about the two Grand Slams he gave up in his first two games. In addition, he gave up Chris Burke’s 18th inning homerun to end the Braves season. Last year, he looked stellar in spring training, though late struggles had him headed to Richmond, which was the right idea. Injuries prompted a call-up that produced little success and injuries of his own quickly followed. In September, Devine was used as a situational righty (a ROOGY?) to moderate promise.
That is all things we know right now. Where Devine goes from here is still to be decided. The former Wolfpack member from NC State has a great arm. He reminds me of Tim Spooneybarger in the sense that he has great natural movement. Talent wise, Devine could be anything from a great setup reliever to a shutdown closer. Will he get there? Probably not next year, but I think he will eventually get it together as long as Atlanta treads softly.
ETA: Mid 2007
Devine finally started to put it together as he was healthy and effective for the entire 2007 campaign. He finished fourth in the Southern League in saves with 16 in 33 games. He was also on the Ascanio/Devine shuttle between Mississippi and Atlanta where each pitcher would get a game or two in the majors before getting demoted again. He added to his resume with an impressive 17 games with the eventual International League champs, Richmond. His control remained problematic in the majors, but he was much more confident in ten outings. Out of options, Devine's time to shine is now.
5. Brandon Jones – Outfield – Age: 23…In the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, they basically killed off “draft-and-follow” players, or players that are drafted, play a season at a junior college or whatever, and then the team re-evaluates if they want to sign him or if the player wants to re-enter the draft. Jones was one of those players and was a big find for the Braves after he was selected in the 23rd round. In three years since he signed merely days before the 2004 draft, he has handled himself to the tune of a .819 OPS.
Jones has not played a full season in any year (signing late and injuries played their part), but after 58 games with Myrtle Beach this year, he was promoted to Mississippi and actually hit better than he had at the Beach, showing off a .477 SLG power and a .273 batting average. His projections vary, but I see him along the lines of 20-25 HR, solid contact skills, and generally a good hitter. Maybe not an All-Star, but a guy who keeps a position from being a weakness.
ETA: Early 2009
Like many of the players who had Mississippi dominating the first half, Jones earned promotions the rest of the year and even got a chance in the majors in September. In a season that saw the Braves trade many of their top prospects and other top prospects regressed, Jones flourished for the Braves, hitting a combined .295/.367/.490 with 19 homers and 100 RBIs for Mississippi and Richmond. That 100 RBIs was best in the organization. He went 2-for-19 in the majors with a double, but has a good chance of competing for a job in the spring.
4. Eric Campbell – Third Base – Age: 21…In 2005, Campbell, the former second rounder from Indiana, showed why the Braves selected him as high as they did for he took home just about every conceivable honor for his success at advanced rookie level Danville. Last year, he was almost as impressive, hitting .296 with a .517 SLG. Adding to that, he stole 18 bases and mashed 22 homeruns for Rome.
Where Campbell will play is up for debate. Most believe he will be moved to second and become the long-term answer at that position, opening third base for Van Pope. His experience at second in the Hawaii Winter League gives credence to that. Campbell is a hacker like Jeff Francoeur, but seems to make more contact, striking out in just 15% of his at-bats while playing most of 2006 at a younger-than-average age for his level. Keep an eye on Campbell. He could be fast tracked if he handles Myrtle Beach.
ETA: Late 2008/Early 2009
Spoiler alert - none of the top four in this list will be in the 2007 top ten. The top three were all traded, but Campbell's attitude and regression as a player was his biggest fault. He batted .221/.312/.406 in 81 injury-and-suspension hurt games for Myrtle Beach. The walks, 36, were a new personal high and he showed enough power, but simply sucked. He will need a major bounceback year to remain in the Braves plans.
3. Matt Harrison – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Matt Harrison has a real shot of making some moves in the organization as soon as this season. Since he was selected with the 97th choice in 2003, all Harrison has done is become more and more impressive. While with Danville in 2004, he gave up nearly ten hits per nine innings, yet considering his age of 18, even keeping the hits per nine innings fewer than ten was impressive. He came onto the map while again playing under the average age of the league the following season, going 12-7 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Last year, between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, he again kept performing at a high level.
If Harrison does have any problems it is the fact he gives up a good amount of homeruns considering the parks he has played in. But because he walks under two per nine innings and has a career WHIP of 1.17, he can give up 35 homeruns a year and still be a leader on the staff. Harrison is the one serious pitching prospect the Braves currently have in their system. If labels make you happy, Harrison could become a number two starter in the upcoming years.
ETA: Late 2007/Early 2008
My favorite Braves pitching prospect is no more after he was included in the Teix trade. Harrison dealt with injuries and was not as effective as he was the previous year, posting a 1.30 WHIP. The addition of Beau Jones to the trade was said to be a little backup in case Harrison was not able to stay healthy. He was named one of the Arizona Fall League's top 22 players to finish the year however.
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Catcher – Age: 21…With Salty, his 2006 season needs to be taken into context. He suffered from a wrist injury and considering the fact he turned 21 last May, he was pretty young to play in the Southern League. Whether or not he repeats the level next year, Salty still remains among the crème of the crop as far as prospects go in the organization and one of the top three catcher prospects in the minor leagues. His power struggled last year, but he showed explosive power with Myrtle Beach in 2005. Posting a .200 IsoSLG while playing half of your games in that pitcher’s paradise is astonishing.
Salty has the potential to be the best power hitter the Braves have developed in a decade. His plate discipline is incredible and he is able to rebound as he should, Salty will once again re-establish himself as one of the best prospects in baseball. However, will he go the Andy Marte way and find himself traded or will he be moved to a position so the Braves can get him into the lineup? Hopefully, the latter.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008
What is there that needs to be said about Salty? After absolutely crushing the Southern League for a month, Salty was promoted to the majors and held his own. Over his next 44 games, Salty hit .284/.333/.411 and showed a strong throwing arm. Saldy, the Teix trade gobbled him up, too. He hit for more power with Texas, but his AVG/OBP slumped. I still think he will be a yearly .900 OPS guy within 2-3 years.
1. Elvis Andrus – Shortstop – Age: 18…Elvis may be the most popular Braves prospect right now and when you are already playing A-ball at 18, you should be pretty popular. In fact, he did not turn 18 until late August so he spent most of the season at 17. Still, he hit .265. Andrus is most definitely for real.
It is hard to project Andrus so I will say this. He has the potential to be the best the shortstop in Braves history. Too much? When you take into account his age, his relative success, and the fact that scouts love his possibilities, I have to believe that once he develops a little more, both physically and mentally, he is going to be a consistent force for years to come.
For me to rank him this high took a lot of convincing because he does not have the resumes that Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia easily present. However, there is not a Brave in the system right now that I believe can be Andrus’ equal in the terms of what he can do. Whether or not he actually does…well, that is why they play the games, correct?
ETA: Early 2010
It still amazes me what Teix cost the Braves. My top three prospects from last year, not to mention my #9. Andrus turned 19 in late August and finished strong to go with his birthday as he hit .300/.369/.373 after the trade. He was on his way to losing the number one slot in this organization before the trade as he hit .244/.330/.335 with Myrtle Beach. Just the same, there is a lot to be excited about with Andrus and he too was part of the Top 22 AFL players this year.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown Part 2
A few days ago, I looked at my rankings from last year from 21-30. Here is 11-20. Four of these guys played with the major league club last year.
20. Clint Sammons – Catcher – Age: 23…With Max Ramirez traded and Brian McCann in position to become the regular catcher for a decade, Sammons is now the top catching prospect outside of that whole Jarrod Saltalamacchia guy. Unfortunately, he has shown very little of the promise those other three did. He struggled significantly at Myrtle Beach last year and might be asked to repeat the level (especially if Saltalamacchia starts 2007 in Mississippi).
Sammons has shown some decent plate discipline and some contact skills, but next to no power. He seems to be known for his glove, though, which Baseball America classified as the best defense from a catcher in the system. A former Georgia Bulldog and graduate of Parkview High School, Sammons could be competing for a backup job with Atlanta in a few years, but is probably no better than that. Why did he make my top 20, you may be asking? Catchers will always have value.
ETA: Late 2008
With Jarrod Saltalamacchia gone, Sammons becomes the most ready catching prospect in the system and has as good of a chance as anyone right now of making next year's club as a backup. He hit well at Myrtle Beach, but struggled with Mississippi. However, he is merely a defensive catcher and got a September callup last year and started the final game.
19. Kevin Gunderson – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…The Braves are trying to carve out a niche with college relievers and a year after selecting Joey Devine and Will Startup, they took the closer of Oregon State, who won the NCAA Title last year. With the Beavers, he saved 20 games before joining the Danville Braves after the College World Series. He played just one game with them before hitting Rome, where he continued to cruise.
Gunderson lives on a fastball and a slider, neither of which will strike out a large amount of batters, but will both get the job done. He also has excellent pin-point control, allowing him to not walk batters and also keep the ball in the park. Gunderson is a true sleeper to climb the minor leagues this year. I see him as a real possibility to end the year with Richmond.
ETA: Mid 2008
Gunderson's ERA at two stops (MB and Miss.) was good, but his WHIP was horrible. The lefty will likely rejoin Mississippi to try to regroup and get back on track. Of particular concern was his control, which was rather poor. Perhaps he was hurt.
18. Jeffrey Locke – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Oh, gosh, a 4.22 ERA. He is so average! No, not exactly. While Locke’s ERA was a bit high and as were the hits allowed, the southpaw struck out 38 in 32 innings to five walks. Sounds nasty enough to make this list.
I picture Locke growing into a Macay McBride type role rather than a starter. With that said, he gave up a lot of homeruns for the Gulf Coast League (four) and will need to do a much better job. Unless he gets shifted to the pen, expect the Braves to push the New Hampshire native along slowly.
ETA: Early 2011
Locke was absolutely dominating at Danville last year, striking out 74 to just eight walks in 61 innings. The southpaw will get his first taste of fullseason ball next year, but has a great shot to rise up the prospect rankings very quickly.
17. Anthony Lerew – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 24…Lerew only seems old as a prospect, but he will be 24 for the entire 2007 season. He will enter his seventh professional season and it may be do or die time for Lerew with the organization. On the good side, he goes to battle with one of the livelier arms in the organization. On the bad side, he has yet to do much with it.
Lerew has posted a fairly boring minor league resume that got steadily worse last year as he failed miserably in his efforts to conquer AAA. In 16 games, all but one as a starter, he was ripped for a 7.48 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. The efforts had him receive a demotion to Mississippi and he looked significantly better. However, without a good season, the Braves may move on to other hurlers moving through their organization rather than keep around the Pennsylvanian who is entering his final option year.
ETA: Late 2007
Lerew had a decent go-at-it with Richmond last year and with the Braves dying for starting help, they called on Lerew. After a good start, things went downhill and he hid an injury from the Braves. Surgery will take him out and if he hopes to have an impact on the Braves, it may have to wait until 2009.
16. Steven Evarts – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Unlikely to play a major role this year as the Braves will probably use him at Danville before throwing him to the wolves at Rome, but Evarts had a great start to his professional career last year. The Braves selected the Tampa, FL resident with their third first round selection and the 43rd overall. When you look at the potential the Braves drafted on the mound, there is some serious talent here. They are just a long ways away.
As for Evarts, he seems to be in the mold of many Braves pitchers before him: great control, not a strikeout pitcher, and a guy who keeps base runners allowed low through changing speeds. I actually believe he will become the best starting pitcher out of this draft, but I do not plan on seeing him anytime soon.
ETA: Early 2011
Another 2006 draftee, Evarts was another solid arm for Danville, though his innings were lower than Locke. Perhaps he was injured. If healthy, he joins other '06 arms at Rome next year to see how good they can be.
15. Chase Fontaine – Shortstop – Age: 21…What are the chances this guy has a bunch of girls after him? When you tell a girl your name is Chase Fontaine, she will sleep with you. Try it at bars. As for the real Chase Fontaine, the Braves selected him this year with their second round selection and may have gotten another future star hitter for their organization.
In 60 games with Danville, the left-hand hitting shortstop completed a solid debut season that saw him hit .296 with a .411 OBP and a .412 SLG. He struck out a few too many times (45 in 199 AB), but the walks (37) help you forget that to a degree. Could be in the top 10 of Braves prospect next year if he hits well at Rome.
ETA: Late 2009/Early 2010
I liked Fontaine a lot when the season opened, but his glove really struggled to keep up with his bat and he was moved around. In '06, he played shortstop, which increased his value. Last year, he spent most of the year at 2B and 3B and found time in the outfield. Looks like a project.
14. Dustin Evans – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…So far, he is the class of the 2006 draft in how far he has progressed. Oh, well, that says nothing because he was just drafted, but the Georgia Southern product barely spent anytime at Danville before heading to Rome, where he displayed a 1.18 WHIP, a knack for not walking batters, and a great homerun ratio.
It may be too soon to rank him this high, but the second rounder made a fan out of me through his short time and could be knocking on the door to Mississippi very soon. I think his strikeout rate (5.53 K/9) will rise into the 6.50-7.00 range and if he continues to force batters to get on base through some other way than the free pass, he might become the first player from the 2006 draft to make his major league debut in a couple of years.
ETA: Mid 2009
Drafted out of college in '06, Evans was already with Myrtle Beach last year. The results weren't pretty. A 4.70 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, medicore K/9 and K/BB rates. He will have to re-establish his value to stay above some of the '06 pitchers level-wise.
13. Kala Kaaihue – First Base – Age: 22…I will try to refrain from any Hawaiian Punch references. Kaaihue, a native of Kailua, really came onto the scene with an amazing first half of 2006 with Rome. He drilled everything he bothered to swing at and if he did not swing, most of the time he reached base anyway via a walk. After 67 games, he was hitting .329 with a .458 OBP and a .614 SLG. The Braves got the memo and promoted him.
However, he struggled with Myrtle Beach. His average slumped to .223. However, the power and eye was still there as he reached base at a .342 clip and slugged .473. He received a little action in the Hawaii Winter League and will likely head back to Myrtle Beach next year, but Kaaihue could become a serious player in the Braves future picture next year after leading the organization with 28 homeruns last year. If the average comes back up, we could be looking up at Adam Dunn. Where he will play and when he will get a chance are questions we will ask later on.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008
Kaaihue's 2007 mirrored his 2006. He hit well at his first stop, was horrible at his second stop. He couldn't hit a beachball after getting moved up to Mississippi and his prospect status is in limbo. Kaaihue could still make some waves in the organization, but needs to hit well all season.
12. Yunel Escobar – Shortstop/Third Base – Age: 24…There are a few publications that believe Escobar has a chance to push his way into the Atlanta second base discussion this year. I am not so sure, but he has talent. Defensively, Escobar might be the best shortstop ready to possibly contribute in the major leagues within the next year and a half. Offensively, there are some good things. He nearly posted a .100 IsoOBP last year and that is definitely helpful for a lineup full of “swing first, swing second, ask questions tomorrow” hitters. He also took home the Arizona Fall League Batting Title.
Where Escobar goes from there is still to be determined. In full disclosure, I am not his biggest fan. He does not seem to have some signature ability to get on base, to hit for power, to steal bases, or to be wonderful defensively (ala Luis Hernandez). With all that said, he is still young enough to get something going and if he has a solid year in Richmond, he may become a solid tradable piece or a reason to trade Edgar Renteria.
ETA: Early 2008
Esco, Mr. Dynamic, or however you knew him, slowly made me a believer. He did becom the reason to trade Edgar Renteria as he set the major leagues on fire with his skills and instincts after being promoted. He is now in position to start at shortstop next year. What a few years for the Cuban import.
11. Jo Jo Reyes – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Selected in the second round in 2003, injuries have kept Reyes from climbing up the minor leagues faster, but he showed in 13 games with Rome what he can be. His numbers before a deserved promotion were 8-1, 2.99 ERA, 10.14 K/9, and a 1.15 WHIP. His numbers were not as impressive at Myrtle Beach, but he does not seem to have been totally overmatched.
It really is not known just what to expect out of Reyes. Like I said, injuries have kept Reyes to just 65 games in four seasons. When he was drafted, Bartolo Colon’s name was thrown about as a comparable name. If he can remain healthy, Reyes has a good chance of being a successful major leaguer.
ETA: Early 2009
He destroyed my original ETA by climbing up the ranks and passing Matt Harrison even before Harrison was traded. He headed into this offseason as the best young pitcher ready to contribute, but Jair Jurrjens has taken that from him. Still, I believe he has a good future.
20. Clint Sammons – Catcher – Age: 23…With Max Ramirez traded and Brian McCann in position to become the regular catcher for a decade, Sammons is now the top catching prospect outside of that whole Jarrod Saltalamacchia guy. Unfortunately, he has shown very little of the promise those other three did. He struggled significantly at Myrtle Beach last year and might be asked to repeat the level (especially if Saltalamacchia starts 2007 in Mississippi).
Sammons has shown some decent plate discipline and some contact skills, but next to no power. He seems to be known for his glove, though, which Baseball America classified as the best defense from a catcher in the system. A former Georgia Bulldog and graduate of Parkview High School, Sammons could be competing for a backup job with Atlanta in a few years, but is probably no better than that. Why did he make my top 20, you may be asking? Catchers will always have value.
ETA: Late 2008
With Jarrod Saltalamacchia gone, Sammons becomes the most ready catching prospect in the system and has as good of a chance as anyone right now of making next year's club as a backup. He hit well at Myrtle Beach, but struggled with Mississippi. However, he is merely a defensive catcher and got a September callup last year and started the final game.
19. Kevin Gunderson – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…The Braves are trying to carve out a niche with college relievers and a year after selecting Joey Devine and Will Startup, they took the closer of Oregon State, who won the NCAA Title last year. With the Beavers, he saved 20 games before joining the Danville Braves after the College World Series. He played just one game with them before hitting Rome, where he continued to cruise.
Gunderson lives on a fastball and a slider, neither of which will strike out a large amount of batters, but will both get the job done. He also has excellent pin-point control, allowing him to not walk batters and also keep the ball in the park. Gunderson is a true sleeper to climb the minor leagues this year. I see him as a real possibility to end the year with Richmond.
ETA: Mid 2008
Gunderson's ERA at two stops (MB and Miss.) was good, but his WHIP was horrible. The lefty will likely rejoin Mississippi to try to regroup and get back on track. Of particular concern was his control, which was rather poor. Perhaps he was hurt.
18. Jeffrey Locke – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Oh, gosh, a 4.22 ERA. He is so average! No, not exactly. While Locke’s ERA was a bit high and as were the hits allowed, the southpaw struck out 38 in 32 innings to five walks. Sounds nasty enough to make this list.
I picture Locke growing into a Macay McBride type role rather than a starter. With that said, he gave up a lot of homeruns for the Gulf Coast League (four) and will need to do a much better job. Unless he gets shifted to the pen, expect the Braves to push the New Hampshire native along slowly.
ETA: Early 2011
Locke was absolutely dominating at Danville last year, striking out 74 to just eight walks in 61 innings. The southpaw will get his first taste of fullseason ball next year, but has a great shot to rise up the prospect rankings very quickly.
17. Anthony Lerew – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 24…Lerew only seems old as a prospect, but he will be 24 for the entire 2007 season. He will enter his seventh professional season and it may be do or die time for Lerew with the organization. On the good side, he goes to battle with one of the livelier arms in the organization. On the bad side, he has yet to do much with it.
Lerew has posted a fairly boring minor league resume that got steadily worse last year as he failed miserably in his efforts to conquer AAA. In 16 games, all but one as a starter, he was ripped for a 7.48 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. The efforts had him receive a demotion to Mississippi and he looked significantly better. However, without a good season, the Braves may move on to other hurlers moving through their organization rather than keep around the Pennsylvanian who is entering his final option year.
ETA: Late 2007
Lerew had a decent go-at-it with Richmond last year and with the Braves dying for starting help, they called on Lerew. After a good start, things went downhill and he hid an injury from the Braves. Surgery will take him out and if he hopes to have an impact on the Braves, it may have to wait until 2009.
16. Steven Evarts – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Unlikely to play a major role this year as the Braves will probably use him at Danville before throwing him to the wolves at Rome, but Evarts had a great start to his professional career last year. The Braves selected the Tampa, FL resident with their third first round selection and the 43rd overall. When you look at the potential the Braves drafted on the mound, there is some serious talent here. They are just a long ways away.
As for Evarts, he seems to be in the mold of many Braves pitchers before him: great control, not a strikeout pitcher, and a guy who keeps base runners allowed low through changing speeds. I actually believe he will become the best starting pitcher out of this draft, but I do not plan on seeing him anytime soon.
ETA: Early 2011
Another 2006 draftee, Evarts was another solid arm for Danville, though his innings were lower than Locke. Perhaps he was injured. If healthy, he joins other '06 arms at Rome next year to see how good they can be.
15. Chase Fontaine – Shortstop – Age: 21…What are the chances this guy has a bunch of girls after him? When you tell a girl your name is Chase Fontaine, she will sleep with you. Try it at bars. As for the real Chase Fontaine, the Braves selected him this year with their second round selection and may have gotten another future star hitter for their organization.
In 60 games with Danville, the left-hand hitting shortstop completed a solid debut season that saw him hit .296 with a .411 OBP and a .412 SLG. He struck out a few too many times (45 in 199 AB), but the walks (37) help you forget that to a degree. Could be in the top 10 of Braves prospect next year if he hits well at Rome.
ETA: Late 2009/Early 2010
I liked Fontaine a lot when the season opened, but his glove really struggled to keep up with his bat and he was moved around. In '06, he played shortstop, which increased his value. Last year, he spent most of the year at 2B and 3B and found time in the outfield. Looks like a project.
14. Dustin Evans – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…So far, he is the class of the 2006 draft in how far he has progressed. Oh, well, that says nothing because he was just drafted, but the Georgia Southern product barely spent anytime at Danville before heading to Rome, where he displayed a 1.18 WHIP, a knack for not walking batters, and a great homerun ratio.
It may be too soon to rank him this high, but the second rounder made a fan out of me through his short time and could be knocking on the door to Mississippi very soon. I think his strikeout rate (5.53 K/9) will rise into the 6.50-7.00 range and if he continues to force batters to get on base through some other way than the free pass, he might become the first player from the 2006 draft to make his major league debut in a couple of years.
ETA: Mid 2009
Drafted out of college in '06, Evans was already with Myrtle Beach last year. The results weren't pretty. A 4.70 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, medicore K/9 and K/BB rates. He will have to re-establish his value to stay above some of the '06 pitchers level-wise.
13. Kala Kaaihue – First Base – Age: 22…I will try to refrain from any Hawaiian Punch references. Kaaihue, a native of Kailua, really came onto the scene with an amazing first half of 2006 with Rome. He drilled everything he bothered to swing at and if he did not swing, most of the time he reached base anyway via a walk. After 67 games, he was hitting .329 with a .458 OBP and a .614 SLG. The Braves got the memo and promoted him.
However, he struggled with Myrtle Beach. His average slumped to .223. However, the power and eye was still there as he reached base at a .342 clip and slugged .473. He received a little action in the Hawaii Winter League and will likely head back to Myrtle Beach next year, but Kaaihue could become a serious player in the Braves future picture next year after leading the organization with 28 homeruns last year. If the average comes back up, we could be looking up at Adam Dunn. Where he will play and when he will get a chance are questions we will ask later on.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008
Kaaihue's 2007 mirrored his 2006. He hit well at his first stop, was horrible at his second stop. He couldn't hit a beachball after getting moved up to Mississippi and his prospect status is in limbo. Kaaihue could still make some waves in the organization, but needs to hit well all season.
12. Yunel Escobar – Shortstop/Third Base – Age: 24…There are a few publications that believe Escobar has a chance to push his way into the Atlanta second base discussion this year. I am not so sure, but he has talent. Defensively, Escobar might be the best shortstop ready to possibly contribute in the major leagues within the next year and a half. Offensively, there are some good things. He nearly posted a .100 IsoOBP last year and that is definitely helpful for a lineup full of “swing first, swing second, ask questions tomorrow” hitters. He also took home the Arizona Fall League Batting Title.
Where Escobar goes from there is still to be determined. In full disclosure, I am not his biggest fan. He does not seem to have some signature ability to get on base, to hit for power, to steal bases, or to be wonderful defensively (ala Luis Hernandez). With all that said, he is still young enough to get something going and if he has a solid year in Richmond, he may become a solid tradable piece or a reason to trade Edgar Renteria.
ETA: Early 2008
Esco, Mr. Dynamic, or however you knew him, slowly made me a believer. He did becom the reason to trade Edgar Renteria as he set the major leagues on fire with his skills and instincts after being promoted. He is now in position to start at shortstop next year. What a few years for the Cuban import.
11. Jo Jo Reyes – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Selected in the second round in 2003, injuries have kept Reyes from climbing up the minor leagues faster, but he showed in 13 games with Rome what he can be. His numbers before a deserved promotion were 8-1, 2.99 ERA, 10.14 K/9, and a 1.15 WHIP. His numbers were not as impressive at Myrtle Beach, but he does not seem to have been totally overmatched.
It really is not known just what to expect out of Reyes. Like I said, injuries have kept Reyes to just 65 games in four seasons. When he was drafted, Bartolo Colon’s name was thrown about as a comparable name. If he can remain healthy, Reyes has a good chance of being a successful major leaguer.
ETA: Early 2009
He destroyed my original ETA by climbing up the ranks and passing Matt Harrison even before Harrison was traded. He headed into this offseason as the best young pitcher ready to contribute, but Jair Jurrjens has taken that from him. Still, I believe he has a good future.
Friday, November 23, 2007
2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown
As I begin to put things together for my 2007 Top 30 prospects, I figure it is time to look back at last year and where players ranked. As such, here is 21-30 from Raw Numbers #17.
30. Jose Ascanio – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Ascanio is the classic story of a great arm in need of just staying healthy. Ascanio played in just five games in 2005 and struggled greatly in 2006, yet he gets mentioned as a member on the Braves 40 man roster. Before his injury, Ascanio displayed exceptional control and a strikeout arm out of the bullpen. However, since his return, he is struggling to regain the control.
Nonetheless, I am putting him on this list out of respect and hope that the Atlanta Braves staff knows what they are doing when they take up a spot on their 40 man roster with him. That said, this is the same team that lost Adam Stern because they wanted to keep Mike Hessman. They also put Jonathan Johnson on their 40 man roster this off-season. Oh, and they signed Chris Woodward and Tanyon Sturtze. Okay, I have no idea why this guy is on the list.
ETA: Early 2009
Ascanio beat my ETA by a year-and-a-half and debuted with the Braves this year, often on the back-and-forth between the majors and minors before finding his spot. In general, he showed a great arm with a lot of stuff. The thing I mentioned being a drawback, his control, was not such a problem either. Expect a rise in this year's Top 30.
29. Will Startup – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Startup, selected four rounds after Joey Devine, was given the time Devine was not. Two years ago with Rome, he looked good over 25 games (which game him 50 on the year because he logged 25 as a Georgia Bulldog before being drafted). Last year, though, he was on fire with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi. Well, to be fair, he only played one game as a Pelican, but he struck out three in two scoreless innings so I am adding that. At Pearl, he allowed just a pair of runs in 25 innings before his promotion to Richmond.
This is where things got a little bogged down. The hits skyrocketed to more than a hit an inning while the strikeouts also took a hit. However, he pitched well down the stretch and could be in line to battle for a spot with the team this year. Startup has good enough control and should grow into a solid reliever. I rank him so low because I have heard claims of inconsistency and I am just not as convinced as others.
ETA: Mid 2007
Probably should have reached his ETA, but the higher ups kept him down before trading him with Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring. His inability to get a callup might be telling.
28. Brayan Pena – Catcher – Age: 25…The Cuban Contact Hitting Machine, Brayan Pena has logged 80 at-bats with Atlanta the last two years and seems sure to have the inside track to the backup catcher role with the big league club. A career .303 hitter in the minors, Pena lacks any kind of power and does not even show glimpses that he will grow into a power hitter. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter has never struck out more than 41 times in any given season and even swiped six (out of twelve) bases last year.
Troublesome about the catcher is his lack of plate discipline. His career high 31 was set in his first 64 games of his professional career while with Danville in 2001. He has never even come close as for as ratio of walks to plate appearances go. The other potential problem is Pena will not be mistaken for Eddie Perez or other such “defensive specialists.” With all of that said, considering his position, his contact skills, and age, Pena has the potential to be a solid backup who can step in and not be all Todd Pratt.
ETA: Early 2007
Pena got his chance and really didn't lose it, just had it taken from him. His defense seems to be a real problem.
27. Martin Prado – Second Base/Third Base – Age: 23…Nothing really stands out when it comes to Prado. He is a good hitter (.296) and decent at getting on base (.348), but nothing to write home about. He does not have a power element to add to the discussion and is also not an accomplished base stealer.
So, why does this guy have a real shot to replace Marcus Giles at second this year? Well, he is a pretty good defender and he keeps hitting. Last year, he jumped from Mississippi to Richmond to Atlanta and seemed to save his best hitting peripherals for the final trip, hitting .262 in 42 at-bats, but getting on base at a .340 clip and slugging .405. He seems to be your typical scrappy middle infielder who could surprise some people and may do so this year.
ETA: Mid 2007
He did all he could do in the spring to push KJ, but failed to secure any real playing time. He was fairly good with the team last year, though, and looks to have the inside track to a spot on the bench next year.
26. James Parr – Right Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…There are certain pitchers in the Braves system that can be classified as sleepers. Parr, a former fourth round selection, is one of those players. Parr displays great control and has put up a 1.27 WHIP during his first three professional seasons. More impressive than that is the fact he will be able to drink legally for the first time in February and has already performed well enough to deserve a promotion to AA.
I am not so sure he will actually get that promotion to start 2007 because he did have a 4.81 ERA at Myrtle Beach, but the rest of his numbers are not that concerning except a mediocre amount of homeruns surrendered. Just the same, at his age, Parr may have a chance to take some serious strides in the future.
ETA: Early-to-Mid 2009
Parr did head back to Myrtle Beach and was good enough to head to Mississippi soon after. His AA numbers were not as good, though. Seems to have a niche as a pitcher who needs time to complete each level. Could still sneak up the system next year, but his sleeper tag is beginning to fall.
25. Beau Jones – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…When he was selected out of Louisiana’s Destrehan High School, Jones had an easy time with the Gulf Coast League in 2005. The first rounder walked slightly too many batters (4.11 BB/9), but also struck out 10.54 per nine. Usually, the Braves hate to push pitchers over a level, but they felt Jones was ready for A-ball and sent him to Rome, skipping Danville. Bottom line…it did not go well.
Jones slumped to a 5.61 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and 83 walks in 110.2 innings. He did strike out 101, but you simply cannot put a little bow as trash and call it the silver lining. Jones probably needs another half-season at Rome, but he definitely has a talented arm. Hopefully, he gets going this season before he becomes a quick bust.
ETA: Early 2010
Jones found his place as a reliever with Rome last year and got enough attention to be part of the Teixiera deal in July. In the Rangers system, they put him back as a starter and he faired somewhat well.
24. Thomas Hanson – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…Perhaps one of the last draft-and-follows, Hanson was selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft and signed just before the 2006 draft. Before signing, he had no problem dominating the California junior college system. Well, the Appalachian League proved to not be much of a worry, either.
In 13 games, eight of them as a starter, Hanson gave up less than a runner an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. 56 strikeouts to 9 walks is an impressive number, especially for a young pitcher. Look for him to help solidify what should be a solid Rome Braves staff.
ETA: Late 2010
Spoiler alert, no one will make as dramatic a rise up my ranking as Hanson. I am a major fan of him. I see him possibly getting a shot in September of next year at the earliest. He may have posted the sickest 5-9 campaign last year.
23. Gregor Blanco – Outfield – Age: 23…I really have no idea what to think about with Blanco. I have this vibe that Blanco will not turn into a successful major league player, but then again, I could be (and probably will be) wrong. Last year, Blanco showed that miracles can happen and a Braves minor leaguer can post an OBP better than .400. Unfortunately, his SLG was much lower. This is not a homerun issue, but an extra-base issue in general. He simply lacks any power and only once, in 2004 with Myrtle Beach of all teams, was able to get his SLG over .400. Well, it was still .401, but still…impressive, huh?
In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Blanco has generally been a decent hitter in the terms of batting average. Last year, he set a new personal high with a .290 average between Mississippi and Richmond. Blanco reportedly possesses great speed, but is not a good base stealer. He has swiped better than 25 bases in all five of his minor league seasons, but only at a 70% clip. At the very least, the left-handed hitter could become Ryan Langerhans replacement. On the other hand, if things go his way, he could start in center in 2008 when Andruw Jones leaves.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2007
Same ole', same ole' with Blanco. He really did little to earn much support for next year as a starting candidate. Disappointing campaign to say the least.
22. Kris Medlin – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…The Braves drafted 12 pitchers out of 15 selections in the first eleven rounds and Medlin was picked up in the tenth from Santa Ana College. In 22 innings with Danville, the young righty allowed all of 14 hits, one earned run, and a pair of walks. Oh, and he struck out 36.
Medlin will likely join Rome as their primary closer and the Braves have freely shown an open attitude to pushing relievers through the system fast so Medlin could hit the fast track if he has a good half-season with the Rome Braves. But right now, he can be pretty satisfied in his 0.41 ERA.
ETA: Late 2009
Medlen (not Medlin as I repeatily misspelled it) had three stops last year so I was right on about hitting the fast track. He is due to start next year with his last stop, Mississippi. His numbers at Rome and Myrtle Beach were elite and he got a Devineish amount of grounders. He also dominated Hawaii. Could see him knock on the door for Atlanta this year.
21. Jamie Romak – Outfield – Age: 21…The Braves are really adopting an almost sabermetric point-of-view. Example: Romak. He has failed to impress at all as far as batting average is concerned. Last year, the Canadian hit .247 and has hit .233 over 209 games. Nonetheless, he has shown great plate discipline and pretty good power, especially in the ballparks he has played in. John Schuerholz = Moneyball?
These are the reasons why I put a .233 hitter in my Top 30. Maybe Romak will never hit .300, but if he hits .260 at the major league level, he will still be very valuable. Think Kelly Johnson, but more power.
ETA: Late 2009
Soon after, the Pirates loved my review that they acquired Romak in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal. He dominated in the Sally League before heading to the Carlona League where he struggled to a .863 OPS to go with his .252 AVG. I saw him with Lynchburg and he reminds me of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He has a hole in his swing, but he hits the ball very hard. The Pirates got a major power hitting project with this Canadian.
30. Jose Ascanio – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Ascanio is the classic story of a great arm in need of just staying healthy. Ascanio played in just five games in 2005 and struggled greatly in 2006, yet he gets mentioned as a member on the Braves 40 man roster. Before his injury, Ascanio displayed exceptional control and a strikeout arm out of the bullpen. However, since his return, he is struggling to regain the control.
Nonetheless, I am putting him on this list out of respect and hope that the Atlanta Braves staff knows what they are doing when they take up a spot on their 40 man roster with him. That said, this is the same team that lost Adam Stern because they wanted to keep Mike Hessman. They also put Jonathan Johnson on their 40 man roster this off-season. Oh, and they signed Chris Woodward and Tanyon Sturtze. Okay, I have no idea why this guy is on the list.
ETA: Early 2009
Ascanio beat my ETA by a year-and-a-half and debuted with the Braves this year, often on the back-and-forth between the majors and minors before finding his spot. In general, he showed a great arm with a lot of stuff. The thing I mentioned being a drawback, his control, was not such a problem either. Expect a rise in this year's Top 30.
29. Will Startup – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Startup, selected four rounds after Joey Devine, was given the time Devine was not. Two years ago with Rome, he looked good over 25 games (which game him 50 on the year because he logged 25 as a Georgia Bulldog before being drafted). Last year, though, he was on fire with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi. Well, to be fair, he only played one game as a Pelican, but he struck out three in two scoreless innings so I am adding that. At Pearl, he allowed just a pair of runs in 25 innings before his promotion to Richmond.
This is where things got a little bogged down. The hits skyrocketed to more than a hit an inning while the strikeouts also took a hit. However, he pitched well down the stretch and could be in line to battle for a spot with the team this year. Startup has good enough control and should grow into a solid reliever. I rank him so low because I have heard claims of inconsistency and I am just not as convinced as others.
ETA: Mid 2007
Probably should have reached his ETA, but the higher ups kept him down before trading him with Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring. His inability to get a callup might be telling.
28. Brayan Pena – Catcher – Age: 25…The Cuban Contact Hitting Machine, Brayan Pena has logged 80 at-bats with Atlanta the last two years and seems sure to have the inside track to the backup catcher role with the big league club. A career .303 hitter in the minors, Pena lacks any kind of power and does not even show glimpses that he will grow into a power hitter. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter has never struck out more than 41 times in any given season and even swiped six (out of twelve) bases last year.
Troublesome about the catcher is his lack of plate discipline. His career high 31 was set in his first 64 games of his professional career while with Danville in 2001. He has never even come close as for as ratio of walks to plate appearances go. The other potential problem is Pena will not be mistaken for Eddie Perez or other such “defensive specialists.” With all of that said, considering his position, his contact skills, and age, Pena has the potential to be a solid backup who can step in and not be all Todd Pratt.
ETA: Early 2007
Pena got his chance and really didn't lose it, just had it taken from him. His defense seems to be a real problem.
27. Martin Prado – Second Base/Third Base – Age: 23…Nothing really stands out when it comes to Prado. He is a good hitter (.296) and decent at getting on base (.348), but nothing to write home about. He does not have a power element to add to the discussion and is also not an accomplished base stealer.
So, why does this guy have a real shot to replace Marcus Giles at second this year? Well, he is a pretty good defender and he keeps hitting. Last year, he jumped from Mississippi to Richmond to Atlanta and seemed to save his best hitting peripherals for the final trip, hitting .262 in 42 at-bats, but getting on base at a .340 clip and slugging .405. He seems to be your typical scrappy middle infielder who could surprise some people and may do so this year.
ETA: Mid 2007
He did all he could do in the spring to push KJ, but failed to secure any real playing time. He was fairly good with the team last year, though, and looks to have the inside track to a spot on the bench next year.
26. James Parr – Right Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…There are certain pitchers in the Braves system that can be classified as sleepers. Parr, a former fourth round selection, is one of those players. Parr displays great control and has put up a 1.27 WHIP during his first three professional seasons. More impressive than that is the fact he will be able to drink legally for the first time in February and has already performed well enough to deserve a promotion to AA.
I am not so sure he will actually get that promotion to start 2007 because he did have a 4.81 ERA at Myrtle Beach, but the rest of his numbers are not that concerning except a mediocre amount of homeruns surrendered. Just the same, at his age, Parr may have a chance to take some serious strides in the future.
ETA: Early-to-Mid 2009
Parr did head back to Myrtle Beach and was good enough to head to Mississippi soon after. His AA numbers were not as good, though. Seems to have a niche as a pitcher who needs time to complete each level. Could still sneak up the system next year, but his sleeper tag is beginning to fall.
25. Beau Jones – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…When he was selected out of Louisiana’s Destrehan High School, Jones had an easy time with the Gulf Coast League in 2005. The first rounder walked slightly too many batters (4.11 BB/9), but also struck out 10.54 per nine. Usually, the Braves hate to push pitchers over a level, but they felt Jones was ready for A-ball and sent him to Rome, skipping Danville. Bottom line…it did not go well.
Jones slumped to a 5.61 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and 83 walks in 110.2 innings. He did strike out 101, but you simply cannot put a little bow as trash and call it the silver lining. Jones probably needs another half-season at Rome, but he definitely has a talented arm. Hopefully, he gets going this season before he becomes a quick bust.
ETA: Early 2010
Jones found his place as a reliever with Rome last year and got enough attention to be part of the Teixiera deal in July. In the Rangers system, they put him back as a starter and he faired somewhat well.
24. Thomas Hanson – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…Perhaps one of the last draft-and-follows, Hanson was selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft and signed just before the 2006 draft. Before signing, he had no problem dominating the California junior college system. Well, the Appalachian League proved to not be much of a worry, either.
In 13 games, eight of them as a starter, Hanson gave up less than a runner an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. 56 strikeouts to 9 walks is an impressive number, especially for a young pitcher. Look for him to help solidify what should be a solid Rome Braves staff.
ETA: Late 2010
Spoiler alert, no one will make as dramatic a rise up my ranking as Hanson. I am a major fan of him. I see him possibly getting a shot in September of next year at the earliest. He may have posted the sickest 5-9 campaign last year.
23. Gregor Blanco – Outfield – Age: 23…I really have no idea what to think about with Blanco. I have this vibe that Blanco will not turn into a successful major league player, but then again, I could be (and probably will be) wrong. Last year, Blanco showed that miracles can happen and a Braves minor leaguer can post an OBP better than .400. Unfortunately, his SLG was much lower. This is not a homerun issue, but an extra-base issue in general. He simply lacks any power and only once, in 2004 with Myrtle Beach of all teams, was able to get his SLG over .400. Well, it was still .401, but still…impressive, huh?
In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Blanco has generally been a decent hitter in the terms of batting average. Last year, he set a new personal high with a .290 average between Mississippi and Richmond. Blanco reportedly possesses great speed, but is not a good base stealer. He has swiped better than 25 bases in all five of his minor league seasons, but only at a 70% clip. At the very least, the left-handed hitter could become Ryan Langerhans replacement. On the other hand, if things go his way, he could start in center in 2008 when Andruw Jones leaves.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2007
Same ole', same ole' with Blanco. He really did little to earn much support for next year as a starting candidate. Disappointing campaign to say the least.
22. Kris Medlin – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…The Braves drafted 12 pitchers out of 15 selections in the first eleven rounds and Medlin was picked up in the tenth from Santa Ana College. In 22 innings with Danville, the young righty allowed all of 14 hits, one earned run, and a pair of walks. Oh, and he struck out 36.
Medlin will likely join Rome as their primary closer and the Braves have freely shown an open attitude to pushing relievers through the system fast so Medlin could hit the fast track if he has a good half-season with the Rome Braves. But right now, he can be pretty satisfied in his 0.41 ERA.
ETA: Late 2009
Medlen (not Medlin as I repeatily misspelled it) had three stops last year so I was right on about hitting the fast track. He is due to start next year with his last stop, Mississippi. His numbers at Rome and Myrtle Beach were elite and he got a Devineish amount of grounders. He also dominated Hawaii. Could see him knock on the door for Atlanta this year.
21. Jamie Romak – Outfield – Age: 21…The Braves are really adopting an almost sabermetric point-of-view. Example: Romak. He has failed to impress at all as far as batting average is concerned. Last year, the Canadian hit .247 and has hit .233 over 209 games. Nonetheless, he has shown great plate discipline and pretty good power, especially in the ballparks he has played in. John Schuerholz = Moneyball?
These are the reasons why I put a .233 hitter in my Top 30. Maybe Romak will never hit .300, but if he hits .260 at the major league level, he will still be very valuable. Think Kelly Johnson, but more power.
ETA: Late 2009
Soon after, the Pirates loved my review that they acquired Romak in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal. He dominated in the Sally League before heading to the Carlona League where he struggled to a .863 OPS to go with his .252 AVG. I saw him with Lynchburg and he reminds me of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He has a hole in his swing, but he hits the ball very hard. The Pirates got a major power hitting project with this Canadian.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Whoa...what the hell?
Been out of it for a couple of weeks and missed time to comment on a trade. Damn you, Wren. I had an agreement with Schuerholz to keep any amazing trades on the DL until I was ready to comment on it. For my part, I will catch up with a column to be posted Monday or Tuesday at chopnation.com so be sure to check it out. Both players acquired in the deal were soon after added to the Baseball America Top Ten Prospects for the Braves organization.
1. Jordan Schafer, of
2. Jason Heyward, of
3. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
4. Brandon Jones, of
5. Gorkys Hernandez, of
6. Brent Lillibridge, ss
7. Cole Rohrbough, lhp
8. Jeff Locke, lhp
9. Tommy Hanson, rhp
10. Julio Teheran, rhp
I think Hanson is a bit too low and Heyward might be a bit too high, but a good list overall. Elsewhere, a hilarious column found here poises the question, "Is David Eckstein as good as Renteria? Maybe, maybe not..." That made me chuckle.
What else is going on in Braves world? Well, Tom Glavine seems like a sure bet to sign. I guess I just have to accept that when Schuerholz and Wren talked about improving the staff, they really meant Glavine above anything.
Jeff Francoeur won a Gold Glove. Yet again, that award is a useless display of defensive ability. Congrats Francoeur nevertheless.
Andruw Jones met with Stan Kastan. Apparently, nothing was discussed. Andruw playing coy? Things are so different! Speaking of now former Braves, the Braves traded Hiram Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel, got nine games out of him, and declined his option. Oh, how miserable that deal makes me.
Wren flatout said the Braves will not be after a free agent closer. Wonder if Schuerholz has told Wren yet that loose lips sink ships or however that oddass phrase goes. Since taking over, Wren can't stop flapping his yap about whatever new thought he has. Still, if this one holds out, kudos.
Well, that's about all that is going on. I'm sure by the next time I post, the Braves will have signed Jesus because Wren loves to mess with my lack of posting during the week. Bastard.
1. Jordan Schafer, of
2. Jason Heyward, of
3. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
4. Brandon Jones, of
5. Gorkys Hernandez, of
6. Brent Lillibridge, ss
7. Cole Rohrbough, lhp
8. Jeff Locke, lhp
9. Tommy Hanson, rhp
10. Julio Teheran, rhp
I think Hanson is a bit too low and Heyward might be a bit too high, but a good list overall. Elsewhere, a hilarious column found here poises the question, "Is David Eckstein as good as Renteria? Maybe, maybe not..." That made me chuckle.
What else is going on in Braves world? Well, Tom Glavine seems like a sure bet to sign. I guess I just have to accept that when Schuerholz and Wren talked about improving the staff, they really meant Glavine above anything.
Jeff Francoeur won a Gold Glove. Yet again, that award is a useless display of defensive ability. Congrats Francoeur nevertheless.
Andruw Jones met with Stan Kastan. Apparently, nothing was discussed. Andruw playing coy? Things are so different! Speaking of now former Braves, the Braves traded Hiram Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel, got nine games out of him, and declined his option. Oh, how miserable that deal makes me.
Wren flatout said the Braves will not be after a free agent closer. Wonder if Schuerholz has told Wren yet that loose lips sink ships or however that oddass phrase goes. Since taking over, Wren can't stop flapping his yap about whatever new thought he has. Still, if this one holds out, kudos.
Well, that's about all that is going on. I'm sure by the next time I post, the Braves will have signed Jesus because Wren loves to mess with my lack of posting during the week. Bastard.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Week in Review
When I work during the week, I rarely if ever keep track of the Braves, baseball, my cat, or my bathing routine. Perhaps I've said too much. Anywho, here is a recap of the week's events involving the Braves. Some of this may be old news to you, some of it may have been mislooked, but all of it is NEWS! I feel so Dan Ratherish.
The Savannah Morning News mentions that maybe John Schuerholz's decision to move to President was due in at least part to the fact that he didn't want to deal with Glavine or try to replace Bobby Cox. Hear that, John? The SMN calls you a pussy. What now?
Meanwhile, the favorite target of this blog, the AJC, had a Frank Wren piece from Jeff Schultz. It's your basic fluff piece with a little history on Wren that you probably will never be asked about on Jeopardy. This Schuerholz/Wren shake-up is kind of reminding me of the Bill Parcells/Wade Phillips shake-up in Dallas. One guy is the bigger personality - both in the media and the way he is portrayed. However, Wren won't have direct contact.
I'm still not sure this setup will work so well. If Schuerholz feels the itch to do the GM job, it could break down rather quick.
Crooked Pitch had a look at the Braves outfield in 2007. Decent objective piece, though he is dreaming if he feels Brandon Jones can be the starting center fielder in 2008.
Speaking of center field, Torri Hunter has expressed a desire to play in Atlanta next year. Last year, I railed against getting Tom Glavine and this year, I would rather have Glavine than Hunter. If you look at Hunter's career, he has two pretty good years, three pretty shitty years, and four average to slightly better-than average campaigns. Why the hell would I want to pay $13-$15 million for that? Yes, he is coming off a solid year, but he still posted a pedestrian .334 OBP and a hardly notable .505 SLG to go with his 122 OPS+. All told, his year wasn't that much better than any other year.
Put it this way. As I was preparing for my next chopnation column, I came to the conclusion that on a money paid, production received scale, Mike Cameron trumps Hunter and I'm hardly that much of a fan of Cameron.
DOB is hyping up Jordan Schaffer. Hopefully, the kid keeps progressing, but this lovefest is getting a little scary. I believe a lot of people are convinced that Schaffer will be the starting center fielder. You have to learn from the Andy Marte's of the world that just being great in the minors and having solid potential doesn't make a star right away. "Think Grady Sizemore meets Steve Finley?" I hope he is more on the Sizemore side than Finley. The latter was a good guy, nice defender, but an average hitter. Sizemore is a damn force.
Finally, news came out today that Paul Byrd bought $24,850 of HGH between the summer of 2002 and the winter of 2005. 2002 was Byrd's career season with the Royals when he came out of nowhere to suddenly win 17 and post solid numbers. The Braves signed him in 2003 and he spent two years in Atlanta in which he started just 19 games. Maybe the HGH made him more prone to injury.
Now I'm of the camp that really downplays the impact HGH has on a player, especially a pitcher. HGH simply buils immature muscle which would be good for someone who needs girth like an offensive lineman, but not so helpful for a guy like Paul Byrd - who is a finesse pitcher. Nevertheless, this is the kind of stories that you kind of get used to. I tend to like Byrd, but jeez, you were an idiot.
The Savannah Morning News mentions that maybe John Schuerholz's decision to move to President was due in at least part to the fact that he didn't want to deal with Glavine or try to replace Bobby Cox. Hear that, John? The SMN calls you a pussy. What now?
Meanwhile, the favorite target of this blog, the AJC, had a Frank Wren piece from Jeff Schultz. It's your basic fluff piece with a little history on Wren that you probably will never be asked about on Jeopardy. This Schuerholz/Wren shake-up is kind of reminding me of the Bill Parcells/Wade Phillips shake-up in Dallas. One guy is the bigger personality - both in the media and the way he is portrayed. However, Wren won't have direct contact.
I'm still not sure this setup will work so well. If Schuerholz feels the itch to do the GM job, it could break down rather quick.
Crooked Pitch had a look at the Braves outfield in 2007. Decent objective piece, though he is dreaming if he feels Brandon Jones can be the starting center fielder in 2008.
Speaking of center field, Torri Hunter has expressed a desire to play in Atlanta next year. Last year, I railed against getting Tom Glavine and this year, I would rather have Glavine than Hunter. If you look at Hunter's career, he has two pretty good years, three pretty shitty years, and four average to slightly better-than average campaigns. Why the hell would I want to pay $13-$15 million for that? Yes, he is coming off a solid year, but he still posted a pedestrian .334 OBP and a hardly notable .505 SLG to go with his 122 OPS+. All told, his year wasn't that much better than any other year.
Put it this way. As I was preparing for my next chopnation column, I came to the conclusion that on a money paid, production received scale, Mike Cameron trumps Hunter and I'm hardly that much of a fan of Cameron.
DOB is hyping up Jordan Schaffer. Hopefully, the kid keeps progressing, but this lovefest is getting a little scary. I believe a lot of people are convinced that Schaffer will be the starting center fielder. You have to learn from the Andy Marte's of the world that just being great in the minors and having solid potential doesn't make a star right away. "Think Grady Sizemore meets Steve Finley?" I hope he is more on the Sizemore side than Finley. The latter was a good guy, nice defender, but an average hitter. Sizemore is a damn force.
Finally, news came out today that Paul Byrd bought $24,850 of HGH between the summer of 2002 and the winter of 2005. 2002 was Byrd's career season with the Royals when he came out of nowhere to suddenly win 17 and post solid numbers. The Braves signed him in 2003 and he spent two years in Atlanta in which he started just 19 games. Maybe the HGH made him more prone to injury.
Now I'm of the camp that really downplays the impact HGH has on a player, especially a pitcher. HGH simply buils immature muscle which would be good for someone who needs girth like an offensive lineman, but not so helpful for a guy like Paul Byrd - who is a finesse pitcher. Nevertheless, this is the kind of stories that you kind of get used to. I tend to like Byrd, but jeez, you were an idiot.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Baseball America Minor League Notes
BA finished off the top 20 lists and added All-Stars for both the minor league as a whole and each level. Here is a review for our interests.
International League Top 20
7. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Richmond Braves
8. Yunel Escobar, ss, Richmond Braves
14. Brandon Jones, of, Richmond Braves
The IL was very deep last year with the many big prospects that headed through it on their way to the bigs. Lillibridge was ranked lower than expected in the Southern League, but made up for it in Richmond. Had BJ showed more of his power, he would probably be pushing his way into the top ten. Of course, no pitching on this list.
2007 Classification All-Stars
A Advanced: OF Jordan Schafer
Rookie: OF Cody Johnson, SP Cole Rohrbough, SP Jeff Locke
Low showing due in part to the quick promotions some players earned, but this is a sign of how deep the Braves' system is with real impact players. They badly need some luck and/or some good trades to restock this system, especially the upper levels.
International League Top 20
7. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Richmond Braves
8. Yunel Escobar, ss, Richmond Braves
14. Brandon Jones, of, Richmond Braves
The IL was very deep last year with the many big prospects that headed through it on their way to the bigs. Lillibridge was ranked lower than expected in the Southern League, but made up for it in Richmond. Had BJ showed more of his power, he would probably be pushing his way into the top ten. Of course, no pitching on this list.
2007 Classification All-Stars
A Advanced: OF Jordan Schafer
Rookie: OF Cody Johnson, SP Cole Rohrbough, SP Jeff Locke
Low showing due in part to the quick promotions some players earned, but this is a sign of how deep the Braves' system is with real impact players. They badly need some luck and/or some good trades to restock this system, especially the upper levels.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Baseball America: Carolina League Top 20
Braves development is well recognized with the Carolina League best prospects of 2007.
1. Jordan Schafer, of, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
3. Elvis Andrus, ss, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
4. Max Ramirez, c, Kinston Indians
8. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
18. Jairo Cuevas, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
...
Schafer has quietly climbed up the rankings from near-unknown to possible long-term center fielder in the span of, oh, a year. Schafer is a former Top 13 year-old in the country, according to Baseball America, who the Braves selected in the 3rd round of 2005. A former top prep pitcher who had a scholarship to Clemson, Schafer was quickly moved to the outfield by the Braves.
He struggled in the Gulf Coast League in 2005 and didn't show much more talent in 2006, but this year, the player who has been compared to Mark Kotsay, J.D. Drew, and Shawn Green absolutely took off. He reached double digits in 2B-3B-HR, stole 23 bases, and posted a clip of .312/.374/.513. By the way, he played most of the season in the Carolina League (after a month with Rome to get going) and the Carolina is a tough league to hit in, especially his home park in Myrtle Beach.
I didn't even rank Schafer when I did a top 30 prospects last year for chopnation. He is probably a year-and-a-half away (making a stopgap in center field all the more likely as opposed to a long-term contract). Before the season, Brandon Jones was the only major outfield prospect the Braves had. That much has changed.
Of the others ranked, of course Andrus is with the Rangers organization now and Max Ramirez was traded to the Indians for Wickmoo last year. Hanson's the guy I really like. In his first full professional year, he started at Rome and finished with Myrtle Beach. All told, his record of 5-9 is deceptive. Neither team hit for him. Solid ERA, but what grabs my attention is the 154 K's in 133 innings. He gave up a lot of homers, but if you can keep the K/9 rate high, you got a lot of good things going.
Jairo, or J.C., Cuevas is a bit of a surprise. I don't really see him one of the top 20 prospects in the Braves organization...not even sure he's in the top 30...so him making the top 20 for the league grabbed my attention. He has a good arm, probably projects to be a reliever though he started this year. Needs to do something about the walks (71 in 132 innings), though.
1. Jordan Schafer, of, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
3. Elvis Andrus, ss, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
4. Max Ramirez, c, Kinston Indians
8. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
18. Jairo Cuevas, rhp, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Braves)
...
Schafer has quietly climbed up the rankings from near-unknown to possible long-term center fielder in the span of, oh, a year. Schafer is a former Top 13 year-old in the country, according to Baseball America, who the Braves selected in the 3rd round of 2005. A former top prep pitcher who had a scholarship to Clemson, Schafer was quickly moved to the outfield by the Braves.
He struggled in the Gulf Coast League in 2005 and didn't show much more talent in 2006, but this year, the player who has been compared to Mark Kotsay, J.D. Drew, and Shawn Green absolutely took off. He reached double digits in 2B-3B-HR, stole 23 bases, and posted a clip of .312/.374/.513. By the way, he played most of the season in the Carolina League (after a month with Rome to get going) and the Carolina is a tough league to hit in, especially his home park in Myrtle Beach.
I didn't even rank Schafer when I did a top 30 prospects last year for chopnation. He is probably a year-and-a-half away (making a stopgap in center field all the more likely as opposed to a long-term contract). Before the season, Brandon Jones was the only major outfield prospect the Braves had. That much has changed.
Of the others ranked, of course Andrus is with the Rangers organization now and Max Ramirez was traded to the Indians for Wickmoo last year. Hanson's the guy I really like. In his first full professional year, he started at Rome and finished with Myrtle Beach. All told, his record of 5-9 is deceptive. Neither team hit for him. Solid ERA, but what grabs my attention is the 154 K's in 133 innings. He gave up a lot of homers, but if you can keep the K/9 rate high, you got a lot of good things going.
Jairo, or J.C., Cuevas is a bit of a surprise. I don't really see him one of the top 20 prospects in the Braves organization...not even sure he's in the top 30...so him making the top 20 for the league grabbed my attention. He has a good arm, probably projects to be a reliever though he started this year. Needs to do something about the walks (71 in 132 innings), though.
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