Sunday, May 6, 2007

Meet the Padres!

They are not your friends. If the Padres were an ice cream flavor, they'd be pralines and dick.

Game on!

The San Diego Padres come into town at 17-14 and winners of four of five, including their two more recent series against the Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins. However, now they get to face a real team. And on most nights, they will face a real pitcher. It's just that TBA guy on Tuesday that could be a problem.

Could be a TBA Girl. That would be cool. Or a T&A Girl. That would be better.

The Padres have been unable to get going. They are trying to get to four games over .500 for the third time this year and first since being 12-8 after the AARP matchup of David Wells vs. Randy Johnson (BYOP - Bring Your Own Prunes). Since then, they are an average 5-6, including two loses to the Dodgers. The very same team the Braves just took 2 out of 3 from.

Not that the Braves have been unbeatable either. Since starting 7-1, they are 12-10. However, while the Braves haven't been rolling along with an everpresent smile on their collective faces, they have been getting series wins. The series win over the Dodgers gave them three straight and puts their series talley at 7-1-3. They are a Wickman blow-up away from a perfect 8-0-3 with all three ties in two-game series.

The Padres have two big problems right now. One problem, the Braves can sympathize with. In David Wells and Clay Hensley, you have a combined 2-4 record and a 6.78 ERA. While Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, and Chris Young have all been as advertised, they have been unable to get solid work from the backend of their rotation, mostly due to the fact that the easiest out is a strikeout and these two can't strikeout a depressed Ryan Langerhans. Hensley was placed on the DL and the Braves will face Justin Germano, a 2000 13th rounder who is back in the Pads' organization after spending 2006 with the Reds. In nine career games, six starts, he is 1-3 with an 8.04 ERA.

Like I said, they have two problems and the other is a problem the Braves cannot sympathize with because the Braves simply do not have this problem. The Padres offense is bad. Third sacker, Kevin Kouzmanoff, is having a dog ugly year, batting .115/.174/.205. His adjusted OPS is 4. The league average is 100. You can look at Kouzmanoff and say he is 96% worse than the league average. Chew on that.

Not everybody is that bad. In fact, the Pads have a good lineup if you remove half of the potentional batting slots. Adrian Gonzalez is smashing everything he sees, Jose Cruz found the fountain of youth or HGH and is hitting .342, and the Giles brothers are hitting a collective .301. However, the Giles brothers have a combined three homers. Mike Cameron, who is a special person, has a better OBP (at .278) than SLG (checking in at .269).

Hmmmm...pitchers are getting a stiffy looking at these numbers.

But the Braves will get challenged. While they will miss All-World hurler Jake Peavy, they will see Chris Young and Greg Maddux. Both pitchers bring interesting stories. In the case of Young, the Braves have wore his ass out. In three starts, he is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA. Yes, thats right. The only team he has a worse ERA against is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and that was just one start in which he went 3.1 ING. He has never pitched in Turner Field, too, which is a bit more hitter fiendly than PETCO.

Of course, Maddux returns to his old stomping grounds and John Smoltz gets matched-up with yet another old buddy. Since leaving the Braves, he has faced his old team twice, including once at Turner Field. The results were not pretty. In 2004 at Wrigley, the Braves pounded out seven hits, six runs, a pair of jacks, and a walk off Maddux. He struck out four and, showing the uselessness of the win stat, picked up a W. In 2005, this time at the Ted, the Braves again berated Maddux over six innings, scoring five times and getting a win of their own. He did strike out six. He is hoping for good results and a win and I am hoping the Braves destroy him.

The Padres bullpen started very hot and while Scott Linebrink and Tevor Hoffman have had their struggles, this is still a very good bullpen. Heath Bell, practically a give-away by the Mets, has been unhittable (though so was Chin-hui Tsao).

There is a very good chance the Braves will at least get the split. The pitching matchups do benefit them on at least one day. Should be a fun series, but obviously, Wednesday is the best game from a fan standpoint.

Pitching Matchups
Monday - Chris Young vs. Chuck James
Tuesday - Justin Germano vs. TBA
Wednesday - Greg Maddux vs. John Smoltz
Thursday - David Wells vs. Tim Hudson

Series Tid-Bits
- Tuesday's start continues to be up for grabs. According this Braves.com report, it could be anyone. Oscar Villarreal seems like the easy option considering Bobby Cox's confidence in him and the four starts he logged last year. In those four starts, he gave up 18 hits in 18 innings and walked three while striking out ten. Kevin Barry has been decent at AAA, but he impressed me little last year with his stuff. You can look bad, but still show great stuff (see Kyle Davies). Barry looked bad with no stuff. The other good AAA option would be Anthony Lerew, who is the most convenient option at Richmond. He has been decent (his ERA is better than his pitching performance), the 8th would be his regular day, and he's on the 40 man roster already.
- The left-side of the Padres infield might be the only SS/3B combo that has less range than Renty/Chipper. Khalil Greene is pretty average at short, but Kousmanoff is practically a statue at third.

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