Sunday, November 25, 2007

2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown Part 2

A few days ago, I looked at my rankings from last year from 21-30. Here is 11-20. Four of these guys played with the major league club last year.

20. Clint Sammons – Catcher – Age: 23…With Max Ramirez traded and Brian McCann in position to become the regular catcher for a decade, Sammons is now the top catching prospect outside of that whole Jarrod Saltalamacchia guy. Unfortunately, he has shown very little of the promise those other three did. He struggled significantly at Myrtle Beach last year and might be asked to repeat the level (especially if Saltalamacchia starts 2007 in Mississippi).

Sammons has shown some decent plate discipline and some contact skills, but next to no power. He seems to be known for his glove, though, which Baseball America classified as the best defense from a catcher in the system. A former Georgia Bulldog and graduate of Parkview High School, Sammons could be competing for a backup job with Atlanta in a few years, but is probably no better than that. Why did he make my top 20, you may be asking? Catchers will always have value.

ETA: Late 2008

With Jarrod Saltalamacchia gone, Sammons becomes the most ready catching prospect in the system and has as good of a chance as anyone right now of making next year's club as a backup. He hit well at Myrtle Beach, but struggled with Mississippi. However, he is merely a defensive catcher and got a September callup last year and started the final game.

19. Kevin Gunderson – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…The Braves are trying to carve out a niche with college relievers and a year after selecting Joey Devine and Will Startup, they took the closer of Oregon State, who won the NCAA Title last year. With the Beavers, he saved 20 games before joining the Danville Braves after the College World Series. He played just one game with them before hitting Rome, where he continued to cruise.

Gunderson lives on a fastball and a slider, neither of which will strike out a large amount of batters, but will both get the job done. He also has excellent pin-point control, allowing him to not walk batters and also keep the ball in the park. Gunderson is a true sleeper to climb the minor leagues this year. I see him as a real possibility to end the year with Richmond.

ETA: Mid 2008

Gunderson's ERA at two stops (MB and Miss.) was good, but his WHIP was horrible. The lefty will likely rejoin Mississippi to try to regroup and get back on track. Of particular concern was his control, which was rather poor. Perhaps he was hurt.

18. Jeffrey Locke – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Oh, gosh, a 4.22 ERA. He is so average! No, not exactly. While Locke’s ERA was a bit high and as were the hits allowed, the southpaw struck out 38 in 32 innings to five walks. Sounds nasty enough to make this list.

I picture Locke growing into a Macay McBride type role rather than a starter. With that said, he gave up a lot of homeruns for the Gulf Coast League (four) and will need to do a much better job. Unless he gets shifted to the pen, expect the Braves to push the New Hampshire native along slowly.

ETA: Early 2011

Locke was absolutely dominating at Danville last year, striking out 74 to just eight walks in 61 innings. The southpaw will get his first taste of fullseason ball next year, but has a great shot to rise up the prospect rankings very quickly.

17. Anthony Lerew – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 24…Lerew only seems old as a prospect, but he will be 24 for the entire 2007 season. He will enter his seventh professional season and it may be do or die time for Lerew with the organization. On the good side, he goes to battle with one of the livelier arms in the organization. On the bad side, he has yet to do much with it.

Lerew has posted a fairly boring minor league resume that got steadily worse last year as he failed miserably in his efforts to conquer AAA. In 16 games, all but one as a starter, he was ripped for a 7.48 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. The efforts had him receive a demotion to Mississippi and he looked significantly better. However, without a good season, the Braves may move on to other hurlers moving through their organization rather than keep around the Pennsylvanian who is entering his final option year.

ETA: Late 2007

Lerew had a decent go-at-it with Richmond last year and with the Braves dying for starting help, they called on Lerew. After a good start, things went downhill and he hid an injury from the Braves. Surgery will take him out and if he hopes to have an impact on the Braves, it may have to wait until 2009.

16. Steven Evarts – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Unlikely to play a major role this year as the Braves will probably use him at Danville before throwing him to the wolves at Rome, but Evarts had a great start to his professional career last year. The Braves selected the Tampa, FL resident with their third first round selection and the 43rd overall. When you look at the potential the Braves drafted on the mound, there is some serious talent here. They are just a long ways away.

As for Evarts, he seems to be in the mold of many Braves pitchers before him: great control, not a strikeout pitcher, and a guy who keeps base runners allowed low through changing speeds. I actually believe he will become the best starting pitcher out of this draft, but I do not plan on seeing him anytime soon.

ETA: Early 2011

Another 2006 draftee, Evarts was another solid arm for Danville, though his innings were lower than Locke. Perhaps he was injured. If healthy, he joins other '06 arms at Rome next year to see how good they can be.

15. Chase Fontaine – Shortstop – Age: 21…What are the chances this guy has a bunch of girls after him? When you tell a girl your name is Chase Fontaine, she will sleep with you. Try it at bars. As for the real Chase Fontaine, the Braves selected him this year with their second round selection and may have gotten another future star hitter for their organization.

In 60 games with Danville, the left-hand hitting shortstop completed a solid debut season that saw him hit .296 with a .411 OBP and a .412 SLG. He struck out a few too many times (45 in 199 AB), but the walks (37) help you forget that to a degree. Could be in the top 10 of Braves prospect next year if he hits well at Rome.

ETA: Late 2009/Early 2010

I liked Fontaine a lot when the season opened, but his glove really struggled to keep up with his bat and he was moved around. In '06, he played shortstop, which increased his value. Last year, he spent most of the year at 2B and 3B and found time in the outfield. Looks like a project.

14. Dustin Evans – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…So far, he is the class of the 2006 draft in how far he has progressed. Oh, well, that says nothing because he was just drafted, but the Georgia Southern product barely spent anytime at Danville before heading to Rome, where he displayed a 1.18 WHIP, a knack for not walking batters, and a great homerun ratio.

It may be too soon to rank him this high, but the second rounder made a fan out of me through his short time and could be knocking on the door to Mississippi very soon. I think his strikeout rate (5.53 K/9) will rise into the 6.50-7.00 range and if he continues to force batters to get on base through some other way than the free pass, he might become the first player from the 2006 draft to make his major league debut in a couple of years.

ETA: Mid 2009

Drafted out of college in '06, Evans was already with Myrtle Beach last year. The results weren't pretty. A 4.70 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, medicore K/9 and K/BB rates. He will have to re-establish his value to stay above some of the '06 pitchers level-wise.

13. Kala Kaaihue – First Base – Age: 22…I will try to refrain from any Hawaiian Punch references. Kaaihue, a native of Kailua, really came onto the scene with an amazing first half of 2006 with Rome. He drilled everything he bothered to swing at and if he did not swing, most of the time he reached base anyway via a walk. After 67 games, he was hitting .329 with a .458 OBP and a .614 SLG. The Braves got the memo and promoted him.

However, he struggled with Myrtle Beach. His average slumped to .223. However, the power and eye was still there as he reached base at a .342 clip and slugged .473. He received a little action in the Hawaii Winter League and will likely head back to Myrtle Beach next year, but Kaaihue could become a serious player in the Braves future picture next year after leading the organization with 28 homeruns last year. If the average comes back up, we could be looking up at Adam Dunn. Where he will play and when he will get a chance are questions we will ask later on.

ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008

Kaaihue's 2007 mirrored his 2006. He hit well at his first stop, was horrible at his second stop. He couldn't hit a beachball after getting moved up to Mississippi and his prospect status is in limbo. Kaaihue could still make some waves in the organization, but needs to hit well all season.

12. Yunel Escobar – Shortstop/Third Base – Age: 24…There are a few publications that believe Escobar has a chance to push his way into the Atlanta second base discussion this year. I am not so sure, but he has talent. Defensively, Escobar might be the best shortstop ready to possibly contribute in the major leagues within the next year and a half. Offensively, there are some good things. He nearly posted a .100 IsoOBP last year and that is definitely helpful for a lineup full of “swing first, swing second, ask questions tomorrow” hitters. He also took home the Arizona Fall League Batting Title.

Where Escobar goes from there is still to be determined. In full disclosure, I am not his biggest fan. He does not seem to have some signature ability to get on base, to hit for power, to steal bases, or to be wonderful defensively (ala Luis Hernandez). With all that said, he is still young enough to get something going and if he has a solid year in Richmond, he may become a solid tradable piece or a reason to trade Edgar Renteria.

ETA: Early 2008

Esco, Mr. Dynamic, or however you knew him, slowly made me a believer. He did becom the reason to trade Edgar Renteria as he set the major leagues on fire with his skills and instincts after being promoted. He is now in position to start at shortstop next year. What a few years for the Cuban import.

11. Jo Jo Reyes – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Selected in the second round in 2003, injuries have kept Reyes from climbing up the minor leagues faster, but he showed in 13 games with Rome what he can be. His numbers before a deserved promotion were 8-1, 2.99 ERA, 10.14 K/9, and a 1.15 WHIP. His numbers were not as impressive at Myrtle Beach, but he does not seem to have been totally overmatched.

It really is not known just what to expect out of Reyes. Like I said, injuries have kept Reyes to just 65 games in four seasons. When he was drafted, Bartolo Colon’s name was thrown about as a comparable name. If he can remain healthy, Reyes has a good chance of being a successful major leaguer.

ETA: Early 2009

He destroyed my original ETA by climbing up the ranks and passing Matt Harrison even before Harrison was traded. He headed into this offseason as the best young pitcher ready to contribute, but Jair Jurrjens has taken that from him. Still, I believe he has a good future.

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