Shanks talks, I listen

Don't ask me why so many people with ties to the Braves are on my shitlist. Bowman, DOB, Terrence, and also, Bill Shanks. He writes for The Braves Show and asks users to pay for a lot of their material. I hate that on principal. He also wrote a book blasting moneyball philosophy despite the fact that he knew about as much about moneyball as I know about Harry Potter books. It's about a kid who does magic and has a ring that others want, right? Or am I mixing them up?

Anyway, surprisingly free, here is Bilbo's Could 'Mike & Mike' be the keys this season?

This article has nothing to do with Greenie or Golic, nor even a drunken Dana Jacobson. Any of the three would have been an improvement.

Baseball fans all over the country are talking about what their favorite team must do to win this season. There are a lot of sentences that start with 'if,'and every team has a lot of ifs three weeks before spring training starts.

I especially like the "If the Braves were a kind of tree, what kind of tree would they be?"

Skipping down...

Hampton hasn’t pitched in a big league game since August of 2005. He was really good that season, perhaps the best since he had joined the Braves two years earlier. Atlanta finally had the Mike Hampton that had been such a big winner in Houston and New York, but then things spiraled out of control.

Define "really good." Hampton was...decent. Over a dozen games, that is. I, like many others, remember than thumping the Braves gave the Astros where Hampton tossed shutout ball and homered, but if you are going to call a guy "really good," the numbers must support it.

They don't, by the way. A 3.50 ERA which is close to the way he pitched (3.88 DERA) and a -2 stuff rating. Meaning...he wasn't that good. He was just there.

Hampton had to have Tommy John Surgery in September of 2005, which killed his 2006 season. Then when he was coming back last spring, Hampton tore his oblique muscle in his side, which would have kept him out until May. But as he was rehabbing that injury, Hampton started to have additional elbow discomfort. It was then learned Hampton had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, and surgery in April knocked out his 2007 season.

Yay, insurance money on his contract. Boo getting him in the first place.

Fans were ready to see how Hampton would do in his latest comeback, but then on Thanksgiving Day two months ago Hampton strained his hamstring. The sad thing was he actually looked good on the mound before the injury. His delivery looked great for someone that had missed so much time, and his pitches looked surprisingly crisp for his first ‘official’ time on the mound.

Why wouldn't the fans be ready?

I think what you meant to say is that fans were excited to see how Hampton would do...

But that's not true either.

You wonder how much better the Braves would have been if Hampton had been able to pitch in 2007. They had so much trouble in the rotation after John Smoltz and Tim Hudson that we can only imagine how many more games they might have won last season if Hampton had been healthy. The Braves painfully learned the importance of a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, a role Hampton might have thrived in if he had been able to pitch.

What would Hampton had been worth to the Braves? Let's say he pitched like he did in 2004. He would have been worth about two more wins above a replacement player (WARP) than Chuck James and James was worth about two more than Buddy Carlyle. In this best case scenario, a healthy Hampton would have been worth three-to-four wins. Not enough to get the Braves in the playoffs.

But a healthy Hampton, behind Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine, could make the rotation very strong. Before you laugh, remember how well Hampton pitched right before he got hurt. If he’s anywhere near that level, as a number four starter, the Braves would be in great shape.

That was laughable, Bilbo. The chances are minimal that Hampton will provide much more than James could. Now, having James and Hampton healthy and taking their turns in the rotation DOES make it better. But again, you use a phrase like "very strong." If that rotation is very strong, just what is the DBacks staff of Webb, Haren, and Co?

What if Hampton could at least come back and make 15-20 starts? Forget about him being ready on Opening Day for a moment. What if he could at least come back sometime in June and then contribute to the rotation for the rest of the season? That would be like adding a front-line starter in a trade on Deadline Day. It could make a huge difference in the Braves’ chances to get back to the postseason.

Now, Hampton's a front-line starter?

In Bilbo's world, words are just things with no meaning.

He goes on to talk about Gonzo, but the Hampton stuff just bothers me too much to continue.