Monday, May 5, 2008

Is he really?

This from the Morning Juice blog via Yahoo...

Jonesing for Chipper: He's had a fantastic career but he's underrated when it comes to placing him with the game's best in this or any era. And if somebody out there gives me a, "Oh, Hanley Ramirez went second in my roto draft, you're an idiot"-like comment, you're getting a virtual slap. Let's see ... other than Bonds and A-Rod, you could argue Chipper was as good or better than Griffey, the Big Hurt, Sheffield, Manny.

The one thing that makes this argument so valid despite Chipper's injuries is that he plays a much tougher position that 1B/DH or the OF. However, Junior does make up a little since he played center field, and a solid center field at that, for so many years.

If we were to start this discussion with adjusted OPS+, it would not look well for Chipper's argument. The Big Hurt is third active with 157 OPS+ and Manny fourth with 154. Chipper ranks tenth at 144, Sheff tied for 11th with 143, and Junior much further down the list at 15th with 139.

In runs created, Chipper again ranks tenth, but this time, all four players rank ahead. Thomas is second among active players (though first if you think Bonds is done), Junior third, Sheff fourth, and Manny fifth. However, runs created is a counting stat which automatically gives prejudice to those who have played more games. Here is how they rank in RC/G.

Thomas - 8.9
Manny - 8.9
Chipper - 8.3
Sheff - 7.6
Junior - 7.5

Much like OPS+, the stats seem to suggest that Thomas and Manny are clearly the best offensive players and Sheff and Junior don't belong in this discussion.

Let's go further...with baseball prospectus. EQA adjusted for all-time has Chipper with a .318 EQA. Manny trumps that with .327 and Thomas breezes past it with a .336 EQA. Griffey is at .309, but Sheff makes a minicomeback in the discussion with a .317.

How about Wins Above Replacement Player? Chipper is sitting pretty at 102.7. Manny again goes past that with 113.1, Thomas clicks in at an impressive 133.0, Junior at 132.4, and Sheff is at 124.2. But lets do a seasonal average. I took out brief cups of coffee like Chipper's 1993 callup and four plate appearances.

Manny - 7.56 WARP3
Chipper - 7.32 WARP3
Thomas - 7.00 WARP3
Junior - 6.62 WARP3
Sheff - 6.19 WARP3

We finally see Chipper's position give him a lift and surpass Thomas, whose stats are muddled by the fact he was a 1B and DH his whole career. But Manny's numbers still reign supreme. I think it's fair to say Chipper was as good or better than Thomas and definitely better than Junior and Sheff, but I'll keep Manny as better than Chipper. It's not a huge difference, but Manny is one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time. Yes, Chipper ranks just as high as switchhitters go, but there are many more right-handed hitters to rank against.

But fun stuff nonetheless.

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