John Sickels reviews Tommy Hanson

My favorite minor league analyst reviewing my favorite Braves prospect.

Tommy Hanson was drafted by the Braves in the 22nd round in 2005, a draft-and-follow pick from Riverside CC in California. He signed and made his pro debut in 2006, going 4-1, 2.09 with a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 51 innings for Danville in the Appalachian League, showing excellent control of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, but noted that he had higher potential and that there was a chance he could break through in '07 and '08, possibly emerging as a top prospect.

Hanson began 2007 with Rome in the Sally League, going 2-6 but with a 2.59 ERA and a 90/26 K/BB in 73 innings, with just 51 hits allowed. Promoted to Myrtle Beach at mid-season, he went 3-3, 4.20 with a 64/32 K/BB in 60 innings. The main negative here was an elevated home run rate at Myrtle Beach, with 10 homers given up in just 11 starts and 60 innings. Nevertheless, I was impressed with him and gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, a grade for which I took some flack. Most people seemed to think he was more of a Grade B/B- type guy.

I personally think the grade is fair. I think a B- grade would have been low and he is somewhere between B and B+ for sure, maybe closer to the latter. When I look at Hanson, I see a guy who stays young enough for his level, but does well each stop. Even his struggles at Myrtle Beach were not particularly tough to imagine because he had youth on his side.

2008 has been great so far: 3-1, 0.79 for Myrtle Beach, with a 42/10 K/BB in 34 innings and just 14 hits allowed, zero homers. Yes he's repeating the league, but given the way he's dominated so far I imagine a promotion to Double-A will be in order shortly and we'll get a better read on his progress then. He's just 21 so although he's a league-repeater he isn't old for the competition by any means.

I think inning-repeater is a bit disingenuous. Yes, he's repeating a level because he finished last year with the Pelicans, but that is a scant 94 total innings with the Pelicans.

Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.

Definitely my concern too. He fluctuates between 30% and 40% for groundballs. That is a bit of a fear. But then, if it works for Cole Hamels...

It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.

My grade? B+

I think he can be a solid starter in the mold Sickels suggests, possibly better. According to the comments, Hanson has brought increased velocity this year, allowing him to remain a strikeout threat.