Sunday, May 11, 2008

The Right Man for the Job?

After last season ended, the lack of reliable starting pitching came to the forefront as a serious problem for the Atlanta Braves. The rotation last year combined for a 4.45 ERA and once you take out the two aces (John Smoltz and Tim Hudson), the staff managed just 5.1 ING per start. The bullpen, the focus of the previous offseason, stood up admirably well, posting a top notch 3.54 ERA despite three pitchers getting into 70 games.

Frank Wren's first offseason was spent scouring the league in search for starting pitching. He traded for the tremendously talented but raw Jair Jurrjens and signed the former Brave Tom Glavine. Despite the fact that he was relying so much on Smoltz and Glavine and their combined 83 birthday celebrations, the staff was supposed to be competitive starting crew with returnees Hudson, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Buddy Carlyle, and - of course - Mike Hampton.

Through one-plus months of ball, we know these sure things.

-John Smoltz is hurt, probably not going to start another game this year.

-Jair Jurrjens is the real deal, one of the game's most promising pitchers.

-Mike Hampton is hurt. Again.

With Hudson and Jurrjens, the Braves have two very good starters who give the Braves a chance to win each game. Glavine has been decent and basically giving the Braves what I felt he was capable of. Decent effort, nothing more. Essentially, an overpaid Chuck James without James' penchant for giving up homers. Speaking of James, there has been little progression in the numbers for him or Reyes.

Without Smoltz, this staff looks pretty weak. It is time to move on to more options.

Possibly the quickest fix is Greg Maddux. Now, I am not a sentimental guy. The Big Three getting together for one last run with Uncle Bobby and Cousin Chip means little to me. What does interest me is Maddux's impact on the team.

While much was made of Maddux's inability to win 350 in a timely matter, the numbers show that Maddux has been as good as anyone the Braves can realistically target. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a number that shows a pitcher's true ERA, sits at 3.74. He would fit nicely behind Hudson and Jurrjens and provide some insurance if Jurrjens fails to keep up his high level through the dog days of summer.

Maddux also averages around six innings a start. If Glavine can do the same, it would give you two inning-eaters. Both pitchers would provide another year of learning for Jo-Jo Reyes, who can be left at Richmond barring injury.

Getting Maddux might be complicated. He will be paid $10M this year and has a no-trade clause. However, it would be a good bet to say that Maddux would waive it to get out of the San Diego sinking ship and go to a team like Atlanta. He would be comfortable here, pitching in a stadium he won many games with teammates he is used to.

The time to start talking to the Padres is now. The quicker this deal is done, the easier it will be to acquire Maddux. The last thing you want is a bidding war in July. The Padres don't seem to be going anywhere and have shown in recent days that they are willing to move in another direction.

Bring back Mad Dog.

The offense will come together. There are just too many good hitters for it not to. Add Maddux to the staff and whatever help Smoltz, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano give to the bullpen and the Braves suddenly look like true blue contenders.

(Idea inspired by this post at chopnation.

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