DOB: The AJC Idea Man

Braves, Glavine to dance again?

Make it happen. Not because Glavine’s an ace at the peak of his career, but because he’s still a very good middle-rotation-quality starter who’ll pitch like a No. 1 or No. 2 many nights, who’ll probably give you 200 innings and 34-45 starts like he has every season, and be a great influence on young pitchers such as lefties Jo-Jo Reyes and Chuck James, assuming they’re still here.

I am going to say this one time, DOB. Glavine wasn't that good last year. Not "that good" because he had a down year, but not "that good" because he simply wasn't. When the season opens, Glavine will be 42 and can't strike out anyone. His ERA isn't even indicative of how poorly he pitched, even with the shitty last three games. His DERA was 4.52. It has climbed the last four years, but this year, it skyrocketed. It was his second worst full season DERA of his career (go back to his first full season for his worst). He's not going to be a "very good middle-rotation-quality starter who’ll pitch like a No. 1 or No. 2 many nights." If he's lucky, he'll outperform Chuck James.

If you can get him for $9 mill, give or take a mill, in this market that’s a bargain. (Dream - No, no, no) And also - this is important - because it’s only a one-year commitment, it should permit the Braves to go hard after a trade for a younger quality starter, a guy like Oakland’s Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, who could be available only because perpetually tight-budgeted Oakland needs to reload with prospects and knows it might have to dump one of its quality young arms to get a few young players in return.

I'm going to snip his Haren/Blanton talk. This isn't like trading for Hudson, who was in the final year of his contract. It's going to take Reyes/B.Jones/KJ to even start talking about Haren. Blanton, you might be able to put Lillibridge in for KJ, but this is going to be a helluva price to pay. Not that the Braves *can't* pay it, but it's going to put them into an odd position. Your young pitching is essentially down to Chuck James and...uh, here hopes Tommy Hansen stays healthy and moves fast.

You would pay Glavine and either one of these guys less combined in 2008 and than you’d pay any of the few good free-agent pitchers on the market, and about $5-7 million or more less than you’d have to pay a Johan Santana in 2008 (not that he’s a Braves option; too rich for this payroll).

Imagine, if you will, a Braves rotation with Smoltz, Hudson, Haren (or Blanton), Glavine, and Hampton (if healthy, he has to be in it because of salary). If Hampton’s not healthy, then you go Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes or Jeff Bennett, or maybe even Manny Acosta (he’s going to work as a starter this winter, see if that role might fit him; Braves already know he can be a real good reliever).

Folks, you win the NL East with that rotation, regardless of who you get to replace Andruw (and we can cover that later, though I think Mike Cameron is a serious candidate, more so by the day. Randy Winn would also be a good option).

Shizzle my nizzle, I agree with DOB on Winn and I think he's been stealing from me. At Chopnation, I started a thread on CF Targets and I really like the idea of going after Winn, especially if the Giants pick up some of the remaining $16M+ salary over the next couple of years.

Oh, and one more obvious reason to bring back Glavine: It would be a great story for the Braves, who’d have Smoltz and Glavine back together for what could be Bobby Cox’s final season.

I know Glavine has detractors for things he said more than a decade ago, for his union leadership, and for going to the Mets as a free agent five years ago.

And I certainly respect those views. I really do.

But consider that there are going to be no better bargains (or ones requiring only one-year commitments) among pitching free agents than Glavine, who was 13-6 with a 3.88 ERA in his first 31 starts this season, before stumbling big-time at 0-2 with a 14.81 ERA in his last three starts.

Err, remember when I said I would mention his season one time. Okay, here is a second time. Truth is...his ERA should have been MUCH MUCH worse even before those three starts. And um, a 41 year-old absolutely sucking down the stretch isn't a sign, is it? Means nothing, right? AJC - Logic is secondary.

John Smoltz and Tim Hudson were 30-16 with a 3.15 ERA this season and combined for 430 innings. But of the eight others who started games for the Braves, only Chuck James (11-10, 161-1/3 innings) and Buddy Carlyle (8-7, 104 innings) had as many as five wins or 90 innings.

Yes, it was a bad year. Yes, Glavine will likely stay healthy. Yes, he'll probably pitch 180 or more innings. No, that doesn't mean he'll be a significant improvement.

Add Glavine and a Haren or Blanton (or a lesser-but-durable pitcher from elsewhere), and without spending a ton in 2008 you’ve transformed a rotation that went just 58-58 this season and pitched only 917 innings, with a 4.45 ERA that ranked 7th in the NL.

So shitty, yet it didn't rank that shitty compared to other teams in team ERA. Hmm...maybe their win-loss record should have been better if they had a better defense or Bob Wickfattyass wasn't closing? Nah...it's all on the pitchers for they play every position on the field.

The only NL rotations that produced fewer innings were the injury-riddled units with the Cardinals, Nationals and Marlins, who had the three worst starters’ ERAs in the league.

Fucking assholes. How dare they get dragged down. By the way, if you think Bobby has a quick hook with starters who aren't Cy Young contenders, raise your hand.

Glavine can’t file for free agency until after the World Series, like everyone else. And the Braves aren’t permitted to talk to him or other free agents, at least not officially, before then.

The Braves's CIA is on it, though.

But if the Braves aren’t ready with an offer in early November, as soon as its permitted, or if they low-ball Glavine by asking him to take $6-7 mill, then they have no one to blame but themselves and should expect no sympathy.

I agree, I would show no sympathy for them. On the other hand, I would respect Schuerholz for not being an idiot and handing over a lot of cash to a question mark. Would be a nice change.

If they don’t want him because they believe he doesn’t have enough left, well, then say it. But Bobby Cox has said repeatedly that Glavine has plenty left, and Smoltz has said he’s still as good as ever (I don’t buy that, but Smoltz knows a hell of a lot more about pitching than I do, so I’ll assume Glavine at least is still good).

The article goes on, but this is where I'll stop. When has Bobby Cox ever said, "well, he just doesn't have anything left." The guy was waxing positive on Redman. And Smoltzie sticking up for a best friend? Wowzors, imagine my shock. Later today, I've heard rumors the sun will set in the west, but I don't buy it. We'll see about that one.

Way to use critical analysis.