Saturday, June 9, 2012
Monday, October 6, 2008
Bowman answers, I answer him...
Mark Bowman has posted his recent mailbag. By the way, I sometimes thinks he searches out very easy questions.
(on a power hitting outfielder...)
When looking for potential options, it's easiest to look at the outfielders who will be free agents this winter. Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn fit this category. But I haven't gotten the sense either of these players are high on the club's wish list. Plus, Wren provided some indication that if possible, he'd like to fill this need via the trade market.
That's all fine and dandy, but remember, this team is not an outfielder away from competing. I fully understand not wanting to sign Burrell or Dunn. Both are defensive problems, both have huge question marks (can Burrell have a good non-contract year, does Dunn's unique hitting ability ultimately help teams win), and both are probably way too expensive. But you can't throw your prospects at a left fielder when you have more holes to fix than just that. I think a good leftfielder is worth three or four wins over Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, and company. But the Braves need, and I mean need, to focus on the pitching and not get off that focus. I don't care what that means...if you waste prospects on a left fielder and don't win, you have fucked up. Period.
If the Angels, who are also preparing for a busy offseason, decline Vladimir Guerrero's option and he becomes a free agent, he'd might be more attractive than any of the current crop of likely free agents. But can you really count on him to play more than 125 games in the outfield?
Well, no, they won't decline his option. The other point is somewhat valid. Vlad has played more than 125 games in the outfield just twice since 2002. The rock hard turf in Olympic Stadium totaled his baseball longevity in the outfield. Or did it? Well, he won't have the DH in the NL if he chooses to join an NL team after next year...but it could be just as likely as the Angels have been spelling their outfielders in the DH to keep them all healthy.
Each of their outfielders appeared in nine games as a DH, including super defender Torri Hunter. Garrett Anderson and Guerrero got the bulk of the starts, but Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews also played often. I think Vlad could play 130-140 games easy in the outfield if he had to. His offensive numbers would probably be hurt, too.
While looking for an outfielder Wren could land via trade, it might be best to look at the players eligible for free agency after the 2009 season. Matt Holliday and Jason Bay headline this list. With Bay enjoying instant stardom in Red Sox Nation, it's seeming likely that he and his affordable contract will be staying in Boston.
A more likely option for Atlanta could be Xavier Nady, who was on Wren's radar before being traded to the Yankees before this year's Trade Deadline. If the Yankees are willing to deal, the Braves certainly have reason to make an offer for Nady, who could double his $3.35 million salary through arbitration.
And now I'm scared. Are we seriously going to revisit the J.D. Drew mess? How good would Adam Wainwright look in this rotation? Now, granted, without Drew, the Braves probably don't make the playoffs that year, but let's be serious for a second. The Braves can't afford to waste Thomas Hanson on a one year rental and that's what this whole thing boils down to. Nady could be sensible, though.
With Nady in place, the Yankees might be more apt to say goodbye to Bobby Abreu, who is reportedly looking for a three-year contract. At 34 years old, Abreu might not be worth the $16 million salary that he earned this past season. But coming off consecutive 100-RBI seasons, he's certainly worth a look.
Well, I think the Yanks will retain Abreu....but he will likely be much more expensive than the Braves want to, or should, put out for an outfielder.
On the subject of Jo-Jo Reyes...
Reyes has the physical tools to be successful at the Major League level. Tom Glavine and John Smoltz liked him enough that they monitored many of his bullpen sessions until he decided that the Hall of Fame knowledge they were providing was handicapping his mental process during games.
Late in the season, Reyes revealed that around the All-Star break, he told Glavine and Smoltz that he didn't want their assistance anymore. That was only slightly less disturbing than the fact that he admitted he came to his first Major League Spring Training this year unprepared to consistently locate his pitches.
Given all of the embarrassment he encountered this year, Reyes has every reason to push himself as hard as ever over the next few months. He's already tested the patience of a very patient Bobby Cox, and that obviously suggests his future with the Braves might be on its last leg.
Are you freaking kidding me? John Smoltz and Tom Glavine try to help you and that's what is handicapping your mental process? Maybe it's because you pitched very poorly. Reyes is kind of the latest example of the Braves hurler...helped on by pitchers' parks, who truly, isn't that much of a prospect. But because of a lack of options, he grows into a last hope for the Braves. If Bobby Cox is tired of you, your days are definitely numbered.
Jo-Jo, you're seriously on notice.
(on a power hitting outfielder...)
When looking for potential options, it's easiest to look at the outfielders who will be free agents this winter. Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn fit this category. But I haven't gotten the sense either of these players are high on the club's wish list. Plus, Wren provided some indication that if possible, he'd like to fill this need via the trade market.
That's all fine and dandy, but remember, this team is not an outfielder away from competing. I fully understand not wanting to sign Burrell or Dunn. Both are defensive problems, both have huge question marks (can Burrell have a good non-contract year, does Dunn's unique hitting ability ultimately help teams win), and both are probably way too expensive. But you can't throw your prospects at a left fielder when you have more holes to fix than just that. I think a good leftfielder is worth three or four wins over Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, and company. But the Braves need, and I mean need, to focus on the pitching and not get off that focus. I don't care what that means...if you waste prospects on a left fielder and don't win, you have fucked up. Period.
If the Angels, who are also preparing for a busy offseason, decline Vladimir Guerrero's option and he becomes a free agent, he'd might be more attractive than any of the current crop of likely free agents. But can you really count on him to play more than 125 games in the outfield?
Well, no, they won't decline his option. The other point is somewhat valid. Vlad has played more than 125 games in the outfield just twice since 2002. The rock hard turf in Olympic Stadium totaled his baseball longevity in the outfield. Or did it? Well, he won't have the DH in the NL if he chooses to join an NL team after next year...but it could be just as likely as the Angels have been spelling their outfielders in the DH to keep them all healthy.
Each of their outfielders appeared in nine games as a DH, including super defender Torri Hunter. Garrett Anderson and Guerrero got the bulk of the starts, but Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews also played often. I think Vlad could play 130-140 games easy in the outfield if he had to. His offensive numbers would probably be hurt, too.
While looking for an outfielder Wren could land via trade, it might be best to look at the players eligible for free agency after the 2009 season. Matt Holliday and Jason Bay headline this list. With Bay enjoying instant stardom in Red Sox Nation, it's seeming likely that he and his affordable contract will be staying in Boston.
A more likely option for Atlanta could be Xavier Nady, who was on Wren's radar before being traded to the Yankees before this year's Trade Deadline. If the Yankees are willing to deal, the Braves certainly have reason to make an offer for Nady, who could double his $3.35 million salary through arbitration.
And now I'm scared. Are we seriously going to revisit the J.D. Drew mess? How good would Adam Wainwright look in this rotation? Now, granted, without Drew, the Braves probably don't make the playoffs that year, but let's be serious for a second. The Braves can't afford to waste Thomas Hanson on a one year rental and that's what this whole thing boils down to. Nady could be sensible, though.
With Nady in place, the Yankees might be more apt to say goodbye to Bobby Abreu, who is reportedly looking for a three-year contract. At 34 years old, Abreu might not be worth the $16 million salary that he earned this past season. But coming off consecutive 100-RBI seasons, he's certainly worth a look.
Well, I think the Yanks will retain Abreu....but he will likely be much more expensive than the Braves want to, or should, put out for an outfielder.
On the subject of Jo-Jo Reyes...
Reyes has the physical tools to be successful at the Major League level. Tom Glavine and John Smoltz liked him enough that they monitored many of his bullpen sessions until he decided that the Hall of Fame knowledge they were providing was handicapping his mental process during games.
Late in the season, Reyes revealed that around the All-Star break, he told Glavine and Smoltz that he didn't want their assistance anymore. That was only slightly less disturbing than the fact that he admitted he came to his first Major League Spring Training this year unprepared to consistently locate his pitches.
Given all of the embarrassment he encountered this year, Reyes has every reason to push himself as hard as ever over the next few months. He's already tested the patience of a very patient Bobby Cox, and that obviously suggests his future with the Braves might be on its last leg.
Are you freaking kidding me? John Smoltz and Tom Glavine try to help you and that's what is handicapping your mental process? Maybe it's because you pitched very poorly. Reyes is kind of the latest example of the Braves hurler...helped on by pitchers' parks, who truly, isn't that much of a prospect. But because of a lack of options, he grows into a last hope for the Braves. If Bobby Cox is tired of you, your days are definitely numbered.
Jo-Jo, you're seriously on notice.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
David Wright...chokester
I love New York. I really do. I think they bring a lot of great things to this country. Some of the best music clubs in the country like CBGB (though closed now) are there. Times Square is there. The Statue of Liberty, Broadway, lower Manhattan, Madison Square Garden, Ellis Island...I mean, I've never been there, but damn do I want to go.
But holy fuck, their fans can be pretty apeshit. Case in point, David Wright.
You may have heard of him. Wright, a Norfolk boy, was drafted in 2001 and was in the majors just three years later. In nearly 700 career games, he has hit .309/.388/.534 with an adjusted OPS that is 39% better than the league average. A lot of people are down on his defense, but he reminds me of Rafael Furcal. The errors mask how good he actually is because his incredible range leads to tough chances.
Sounds like the kind of guy you might want. I think he's a little less than Chipper at the same points in their career, but is clearly a better defender. However, to hear the Mets fans talk, you'd think he was a bum.
See, New York fans have this snowball quality. They attach themselves to an easy statement and go with it. A-Rod is a choker, the Yankee fans say. They base this on a handful of games in any given year that just so happen to typically be against the better pitching in the league. Yet, if you looked at his career with RISP, he is hitting .303/.403/.553. Choking implies that the player gets worse in high-stress situation. A-Rod's overall career marks are .306/.389/.578. A small difference. But he's a choker.
Enter Wright, A-Rod's crosstown third base rival. .301/.395/.502 career with RISP. I'd take that, myself.
But he's a choker because the fans say he is. Now someone is going to point out that his numbers with RISP are exceptionally bad this year (.246/.329/.380). But I can have fun with seasonal splits. With a runner on first, Wright is hitting .350/.443/.775. So maybe Jose Reyes should just stay at first and everything will be okay. Did you know Mr. Clutch, Derek Jeter, hit just .261/.386/.355 with RISP in 2005? But the same people who whine about A-Rod and Wright point to Jeter as the man who rises above.
No, he doesn't. And, no, A-Rod and Wright don't slink down in clutch situations. The truth is...all three are very good players. A-Rod is probably the best player of this generation. But some seasons, the hits just don't come with runners in scoring position. This game isn't completely under your control. You can't pick when you get the hits and when you don't.
What I've never understood is that if players suddenly concentrate harder with runners on, if they held that same concentration every at-bat, they'd all be .400 hitters, right?
By all means, Mets fans...scream about trading David Wright. Yell it to the management. Maybe they will listen. Hopefully, they trade him out of the NL East. And by the time you blast management for trading him, maybe you'll understand that you do not seem to grasp the game as much as you think.
(I promise to talk about the Braves more in the future, I do.)
But holy fuck, their fans can be pretty apeshit. Case in point, David Wright.
You may have heard of him. Wright, a Norfolk boy, was drafted in 2001 and was in the majors just three years later. In nearly 700 career games, he has hit .309/.388/.534 with an adjusted OPS that is 39% better than the league average. A lot of people are down on his defense, but he reminds me of Rafael Furcal. The errors mask how good he actually is because his incredible range leads to tough chances.
Sounds like the kind of guy you might want. I think he's a little less than Chipper at the same points in their career, but is clearly a better defender. However, to hear the Mets fans talk, you'd think he was a bum.
See, New York fans have this snowball quality. They attach themselves to an easy statement and go with it. A-Rod is a choker, the Yankee fans say. They base this on a handful of games in any given year that just so happen to typically be against the better pitching in the league. Yet, if you looked at his career with RISP, he is hitting .303/.403/.553. Choking implies that the player gets worse in high-stress situation. A-Rod's overall career marks are .306/.389/.578. A small difference. But he's a choker.
Enter Wright, A-Rod's crosstown third base rival. .301/.395/.502 career with RISP. I'd take that, myself.
But he's a choker because the fans say he is. Now someone is going to point out that his numbers with RISP are exceptionally bad this year (.246/.329/.380). But I can have fun with seasonal splits. With a runner on first, Wright is hitting .350/.443/.775. So maybe Jose Reyes should just stay at first and everything will be okay. Did you know Mr. Clutch, Derek Jeter, hit just .261/.386/.355 with RISP in 2005? But the same people who whine about A-Rod and Wright point to Jeter as the man who rises above.
No, he doesn't. And, no, A-Rod and Wright don't slink down in clutch situations. The truth is...all three are very good players. A-Rod is probably the best player of this generation. But some seasons, the hits just don't come with runners in scoring position. This game isn't completely under your control. You can't pick when you get the hits and when you don't.
What I've never understood is that if players suddenly concentrate harder with runners on, if they held that same concentration every at-bat, they'd all be .400 hitters, right?
By all means, Mets fans...scream about trading David Wright. Yell it to the management. Maybe they will listen. Hopefully, they trade him out of the NL East. And by the time you blast management for trading him, maybe you'll understand that you do not seem to grasp the game as much as you think.
(I promise to talk about the Braves more in the future, I do.)
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Ryan Effin Howard?
Seriously, ESPN bugs the living crap out of me.
Watching/listening the Mets/Cubs game because I have no energy to get the remote and change the channel and they just had the most asinine discussion about NL MVP. Both Dave O'Brien and the imbecile Rick Sutcliffe believe Ryan Howard should be MVP.
In fact, "Obi" came to the conclusion before Sutcliffe, who believe Howard is a better candidate for the award than Albert Pujols.
I know not everyone is going to believe in the value of fancy stats like VORP, but shouldn't it say something that the stat that is designed to find "value" has Ryan Howard ranked 30th...amongst all NL position players. Value. That word is in the award! Most Valuable Player. I can read it right there!
Ryan Howard is the sixth best 1B. He's only that high because the Braves traded Mark Teixeira. Ryan Howard ranks behind Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins on his own team. Shane Victorino, that smelly Hawaiian, is about as worthy to be named NL MVP as Ryan Howard. Cole Hamels and possibly Jamie Moyer would be better candidates.
And guess what...Howard just committed his 18th error, allowing the Braves fifth run to score in what is now a 6-3 game between the Phils and the Braves.
I sometimes want to smack people on the TV. This is one of those times.
Watching/listening the Mets/Cubs game because I have no energy to get the remote and change the channel and they just had the most asinine discussion about NL MVP. Both Dave O'Brien and the imbecile Rick Sutcliffe believe Ryan Howard should be MVP.
In fact, "Obi" came to the conclusion before Sutcliffe, who believe Howard is a better candidate for the award than Albert Pujols.
I know not everyone is going to believe in the value of fancy stats like VORP, but shouldn't it say something that the stat that is designed to find "value" has Ryan Howard ranked 30th...amongst all NL position players. Value. That word is in the award! Most Valuable Player. I can read it right there!
Ryan Howard is the sixth best 1B. He's only that high because the Braves traded Mark Teixeira. Ryan Howard ranks behind Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins on his own team. Shane Victorino, that smelly Hawaiian, is about as worthy to be named NL MVP as Ryan Howard. Cole Hamels and possibly Jamie Moyer would be better candidates.
And guess what...Howard just committed his 18th error, allowing the Braves fifth run to score in what is now a 6-3 game between the Phils and the Braves.
I sometimes want to smack people on the TV. This is one of those times.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Braves Say Goodbye to Shea
In their last series at Shea Stadium before the Mets move across the street, the Braves finished in the same way they have finished many three-game sets in Flushing since 1991. They won the series two games to one. After halting their infamous one-run game losing streak on the road with a 3-2 win in the opener of the double header against Johan Santana and Company yesterday, the Braves failed to score with a lineup that even the eternally optimistic Bobby Cox had to feel a little down about putting up.
Gregor Blanco, CF
Martin Prado, 2B
Kelly Effin Johnson, 2B
Omar Infante, LF
Krotchy McKrotchman, 1B
The French Prince, RF
Lillipad, SS
Clint Sammons, C
Jo-Jo Reyes, P
While there is never an excuse to get shutout by a rookie who the Brew Crew tore a new one in his major league debut, that is still pretty bad.
However, they dusted off, got off the mat, shook off the cobwebs, insert sports cliche here, and came from behind to beat the Mets 7-4 earlier today. The Mets fans, who enter hysteria at the smallest sign of failure, were on suicide watch following the game as nightmares of last September began. Luis Ayala, who I picked up for my fantasy team (oops) entered with a 4-2 lead, built by Braves slayer Oliver Perez and seven quality innings. Ayala then allowed three consecutive hits to Krotchy, PH KJ (sounds like code), and Greg "The Hammer" Norton. Norton's hit went the distance, though, and the game was quickly 5-4. Not to be outdone, Pedro Feliciano entered to allowed two hits and walk two and get charged with the other two runs to build a three run lead that Gonzo could not surrender.
Jorge Julio, who tossed an unimpressive 8th, improved to 2-0 in seven games with the Braves. He has pitched like shit, but that's why win-loss record is increasingly frustrating.
The win, combined with Philly sweeping a pair from the Brewers, has tightened the race in the NL East and the Wild Card. The latter is now tied between the Brewers and Phillies and the NL East is now separated by just a game. But none of that matters. The Braves have now won seven of their last ten. This is a team that won just nine of 29 games in the month of August so perspective, people!
CHIPPER WATCH 2008
Chipper Jones went 3 for 5 today. Albert Pujols went 2 for 4. Here is the updated batting average.
Chipper - .36471
Pujols - .36008
Elsewhere, these people believe Matt Holliday might be in the future for the Braves. A hypothetical offer...KJ, Thomas Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez, and Kyle Cofield. Holliday is due $13.5M next season and will be a free agent after 2009. His agent is Scott Boras. I'm just not too keen on trading away the system for another player. And for the record, though I am not trying to say his OPS away from Coors will turn into his full season OPS, he is only OPSing .803 away from Coors in his career. He is a good hitter, but he's certainly not that awesome.
This quote from Ned Colletti bugs me. “I’ll let you know in a year.” The quote was to the question did he regret signing Andruw Jones? Well, you know, Colletti, you knew the dangers. Andruw has not changed. What, did you think you could throw a shitload of money at him and suddenly, he is Alex Rodriguez? It does not work like that. You should take responsibility for that signing, not pass it on to Andruw.
By the way, I am in love with Kat Dennings. She makes me feel funny like I gotta hurl. Wayne says that I should hurl and "If you blow chunks and she comes back, she's yours. But if you spew and she bolts, then it was never meant to be." Hmm...worth a shot.
Gregor Blanco, CF
Martin Prado, 2B
Kelly Effin Johnson, 2B
Omar Infante, LF
Krotchy McKrotchman, 1B
The French Prince, RF
Lillipad, SS
Clint Sammons, C
Jo-Jo Reyes, P
While there is never an excuse to get shutout by a rookie who the Brew Crew tore a new one in his major league debut, that is still pretty bad.
However, they dusted off, got off the mat, shook off the cobwebs, insert sports cliche here, and came from behind to beat the Mets 7-4 earlier today. The Mets fans, who enter hysteria at the smallest sign of failure, were on suicide watch following the game as nightmares of last September began. Luis Ayala, who I picked up for my fantasy team (oops) entered with a 4-2 lead, built by Braves slayer Oliver Perez and seven quality innings. Ayala then allowed three consecutive hits to Krotchy, PH KJ (sounds like code), and Greg "The Hammer" Norton. Norton's hit went the distance, though, and the game was quickly 5-4. Not to be outdone, Pedro Feliciano entered to allowed two hits and walk two and get charged with the other two runs to build a three run lead that Gonzo could not surrender.
Jorge Julio, who tossed an unimpressive 8th, improved to 2-0 in seven games with the Braves. He has pitched like shit, but that's why win-loss record is increasingly frustrating.
The win, combined with Philly sweeping a pair from the Brewers, has tightened the race in the NL East and the Wild Card. The latter is now tied between the Brewers and Phillies and the NL East is now separated by just a game. But none of that matters. The Braves have now won seven of their last ten. This is a team that won just nine of 29 games in the month of August so perspective, people!
CHIPPER WATCH 2008
Chipper Jones went 3 for 5 today. Albert Pujols went 2 for 4. Here is the updated batting average.
Chipper - .36471
Pujols - .36008
Elsewhere, these people believe Matt Holliday might be in the future for the Braves. A hypothetical offer...KJ, Thomas Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez, and Kyle Cofield. Holliday is due $13.5M next season and will be a free agent after 2009. His agent is Scott Boras. I'm just not too keen on trading away the system for another player. And for the record, though I am not trying to say his OPS away from Coors will turn into his full season OPS, he is only OPSing .803 away from Coors in his career. He is a good hitter, but he's certainly not that awesome.
This quote from Ned Colletti bugs me. “I’ll let you know in a year.” The quote was to the question did he regret signing Andruw Jones? Well, you know, Colletti, you knew the dangers. Andruw has not changed. What, did you think you could throw a shitload of money at him and suddenly, he is Alex Rodriguez? It does not work like that. You should take responsibility for that signing, not pass it on to Andruw.
By the way, I am in love with Kat Dennings. She makes me feel funny like I gotta hurl. Wayne says that I should hurl and "If you blow chunks and she comes back, she's yours. But if you spew and she bolts, then it was never meant to be." Hmm...worth a shot.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Smoltz...will he be back?
Atlanta Magazine has an article out on the subject of John Smoltz.
“I say this for the first time, without reservation, if I’m going to bust my butt and if I feel like I’m good enough and it doesn’t work out here, I will be pitching somewhere else … My dream scenario would be to pitch in the playoffs again, and that’s coming from a guy who’s been in 13 of them. (Smoltz missed the 2000 playoffs with Tommy John surgery.) To me, that’s what I’m about. So if the door gets closed here, it’ll have to be explored somewhere else.”
Simple. To the point. If the Braves don't want him back, Smoltz will find some team that wants 41 year-old who last year struck out 197 and posted a 1.18 WHIP. He also has 3011 lifetime strikeouts. Suffice it to say, he is pretty good.
“Make no mistake,” he said a few minutes later. “I am absolutely, 100 percent committed to playing the rest of my career for the Atlanta Braves. But this can’t be my only option … I may not be in the [Braves’] plans. It’s no given right, where I’ve spent 21 years here and [so] they owe me whatever I want.”
The author does a poor idea of explaining that last sentence. To me, he is saying that the Braves do not owe him and there would be no hard feelings if they do not have him in their plans. I think that is sensible enough.
To me, Smoltz is just trying to put a little pressure on the Braves. Make a quick decision where he stands so he can open discussions elsewhere.
I hope he comes back. The Braves simply have no one better. But if the Braves are going to embrace a rebuild year where they are without Tim Hudson most of the season, it would be best to allow Smoltz to move on. It's a tough decision.
“I say this for the first time, without reservation, if I’m going to bust my butt and if I feel like I’m good enough and it doesn’t work out here, I will be pitching somewhere else … My dream scenario would be to pitch in the playoffs again, and that’s coming from a guy who’s been in 13 of them. (Smoltz missed the 2000 playoffs with Tommy John surgery.) To me, that’s what I’m about. So if the door gets closed here, it’ll have to be explored somewhere else.”
Simple. To the point. If the Braves don't want him back, Smoltz will find some team that wants 41 year-old who last year struck out 197 and posted a 1.18 WHIP. He also has 3011 lifetime strikeouts. Suffice it to say, he is pretty good.
“Make no mistake,” he said a few minutes later. “I am absolutely, 100 percent committed to playing the rest of my career for the Atlanta Braves. But this can’t be my only option … I may not be in the [Braves’] plans. It’s no given right, where I’ve spent 21 years here and [so] they owe me whatever I want.”
The author does a poor idea of explaining that last sentence. To me, he is saying that the Braves do not owe him and there would be no hard feelings if they do not have him in their plans. I think that is sensible enough.
To me, Smoltz is just trying to put a little pressure on the Braves. Make a quick decision where he stands so he can open discussions elsewhere.
I hope he comes back. The Braves simply have no one better. But if the Braves are going to embrace a rebuild year where they are without Tim Hudson most of the season, it would be best to allow Smoltz to move on. It's a tough decision.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Another loss
Well, the Braves lose again. Francoeur goes 1 for 7, Jeff Bennett sucks, and the Braves used nine pitchers, only maybe two deserve to be in the majors. Seriously, how does this team ever win?
This game also included the the latest installment of "Martin Prado: Major League First Baseman." Even if you are a bit like me and do not put too much value in positional value, a 1B has to hit for more power than Prado, right?
To prove how these games are very much like exhibitions, only two players played the entire game (Escobar and the aforementioned French Prince). Chipper went 3 for 6 to push his AVG to .358. That is still a point behind Albert Pujols, who went 1 for 4, but his hit easily outdistanced any of Chipper's as it was a two-run shot, part of a 3-1 win in support of Adam Wainwright.
Hey, it's football season and in a rarity, all of my football teams won this weekend. JMU crushed North Carolina Central 53-7 (though NC Central is barely a DI-AA team), Notre Dame avoided an upset by beating San Diego State, and the Cowboys rolled over the Browns. Good weekend there.
Oh, yeah, baseball blog. Braves remain in Atlanta for a three-game set with the Rockies before heading to Shea next weekend. Oddly, Fox's signature game next Saturday is the Braves/Mets. Maybe that will change. Maybe it should change.
18 games left. Six game lead over the Nats to stay out of last place.
Can the Braves do it?
This game also included the the latest installment of "Martin Prado: Major League First Baseman." Even if you are a bit like me and do not put too much value in positional value, a 1B has to hit for more power than Prado, right?
To prove how these games are very much like exhibitions, only two players played the entire game (Escobar and the aforementioned French Prince). Chipper went 3 for 6 to push his AVG to .358. That is still a point behind Albert Pujols, who went 1 for 4, but his hit easily outdistanced any of Chipper's as it was a two-run shot, part of a 3-1 win in support of Adam Wainwright.
Hey, it's football season and in a rarity, all of my football teams won this weekend. JMU crushed North Carolina Central 53-7 (though NC Central is barely a DI-AA team), Notre Dame avoided an upset by beating San Diego State, and the Cowboys rolled over the Browns. Good weekend there.
Oh, yeah, baseball blog. Braves remain in Atlanta for a three-game set with the Rockies before heading to Shea next weekend. Oddly, Fox's signature game next Saturday is the Braves/Mets. Maybe that will change. Maybe it should change.
18 games left. Six game lead over the Nats to stay out of last place.
Can the Braves do it?
Saturday, September 6, 2008
w00t, keeping Washington in last place!
Back-to-back wins against the oddly worse Washington Nationals have the Braves feeling good about life. The guys feel like they can go home and diddle the wife. The coaches feel like their hard work is paying off. And the fans don't really have anyone to bitch about. And the Braves still have a hope to finish above .500. Yes, they cannot lose another game, but stranger things have happened?
Oh, they haven't? Well then.
KJ's been hitting the ball a bit. In his last 19 games, KJ is hitting .338/.397/.507. Now, it's certainly nothing too special, but hopefully a good sign. I'm such a KJ apologist, I know. But hey, he's the only one who I really feel is hitting significantly under his ability.
And yes, that includes Jeff Francoeur, who some guy named Marco Estrada hit yesterday. Methinks Estrada is actually a Braves fan. Anyway, the French prince is day-to-day.
Brandon Jones continues to get regular at-bats and is succeeding at them. I still am not ready to write him off as a potential .900 OPS guy from the outfield, though he was pretty bad at Richmond this year. I blame the confusing Richmond traffic. Lillipad, you're excused, too.
J-And, who is a great navigator, is also hitting in Atlanta. .305/.369/.441 with five steals. I don't think the power will be sustained, but if he keeps that SLG above .400 and that OBP in reasonably effective leadoff status, he is already much more valuable than Gregor Blanco, who would slide into a solid fourth outfielder.
The outfield for next year is problematic for a few reasons. One, I doubt they will deal Francoeur, so let's pencil him in right. Let's say J-And has a foot in the door in center. You need a bigger bat in left. Your infield, for argument's sakes, is pretty well packed. Even if you deal KJ, which has been discussed, are you going to find a bigger bat for the position? Doubtful. This team needs power, ESPECIALLY if they deal KJ, who after McCann, Chipper, Krotchy, and Francoeur, is the only player with potential power. I like Brandon Jones, but you can't rely on that. I think the Braves need a power bat in left next season.
The pitching...remains horrible and the Braves are getting a collection of weak pitchers to finish the season. I'd write more...but Notre Dame's on! Go Irish!
Oh, they haven't? Well then.
KJ's been hitting the ball a bit. In his last 19 games, KJ is hitting .338/.397/.507. Now, it's certainly nothing too special, but hopefully a good sign. I'm such a KJ apologist, I know. But hey, he's the only one who I really feel is hitting significantly under his ability.
And yes, that includes Jeff Francoeur, who some guy named Marco Estrada hit yesterday. Methinks Estrada is actually a Braves fan. Anyway, the French prince is day-to-day.
Brandon Jones continues to get regular at-bats and is succeeding at them. I still am not ready to write him off as a potential .900 OPS guy from the outfield, though he was pretty bad at Richmond this year. I blame the confusing Richmond traffic. Lillipad, you're excused, too.
J-And, who is a great navigator, is also hitting in Atlanta. .305/.369/.441 with five steals. I don't think the power will be sustained, but if he keeps that SLG above .400 and that OBP in reasonably effective leadoff status, he is already much more valuable than Gregor Blanco, who would slide into a solid fourth outfielder.
The outfield for next year is problematic for a few reasons. One, I doubt they will deal Francoeur, so let's pencil him in right. Let's say J-And has a foot in the door in center. You need a bigger bat in left. Your infield, for argument's sakes, is pretty well packed. Even if you deal KJ, which has been discussed, are you going to find a bigger bat for the position? Doubtful. This team needs power, ESPECIALLY if they deal KJ, who after McCann, Chipper, Krotchy, and Francoeur, is the only player with potential power. I like Brandon Jones, but you can't rely on that. I think the Braves need a power bat in left next season.
The pitching...remains horrible and the Braves are getting a collection of weak pitchers to finish the season. I'd write more...but Notre Dame's on! Go Irish!
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Yikes
I'm being no-hit by Barry Zito in Out of the Park, but even that's not as bad as the Braves have been recently. 18-3 loss yesterday which would have amusing if the Rams had been beating the Falcons by that score. Instead, it was the Cardinals beating the Braves. I think LaRussa shouldn't have settled for so many field goals, but that's why I'm not a coach.
Holy shinazzle (I am a German thug), Jeff Francoeur with the infield single to break up the no-no.
Back to real baseball, the Braves are now 6 and 15 in August. In 21 games, they have scored 86 runs, which isn't too terrible I guess. They have allowed 127. Since June 1st, the Braves are a horrible 27-46. They are 17 games under .500. They have lost six straight and 11 of 12.
So, basically, things are bad, mmmmk?
This team is so bad on so many levels. Martin Prado, all of 17 professional homeruns since singing as an undrafted free agent, has been getting starts at first. Omar Infante, all of 35 major league homeruns since 2002, has been the fifth placed hitter. Even Chipper Jones has struggled in August, hitting .289 with just one homerun.
And God help me, do I even want to mention the pitching? The starting rotation's ERA in the second half...5.62. The bullpen has been even worse...7.36.
The 80's Braves teams are calling and saying "damn man, that's rough."
The 119 loss Tigers team a few years ago just sent a txt, "keep yo head up."
Tanner of the Bad News Bears just yelled, "God damn, man, kick some fucking ass."
The way the team is playing, they wouldn't even beat the Hawaii Little League team.
Is it over yet?
Holy shinazzle (I am a German thug), Jeff Francoeur with the infield single to break up the no-no.
Back to real baseball, the Braves are now 6 and 15 in August. In 21 games, they have scored 86 runs, which isn't too terrible I guess. They have allowed 127. Since June 1st, the Braves are a horrible 27-46. They are 17 games under .500. They have lost six straight and 11 of 12.
So, basically, things are bad, mmmmk?
This team is so bad on so many levels. Martin Prado, all of 17 professional homeruns since singing as an undrafted free agent, has been getting starts at first. Omar Infante, all of 35 major league homeruns since 2002, has been the fifth placed hitter. Even Chipper Jones has struggled in August, hitting .289 with just one homerun.
And God help me, do I even want to mention the pitching? The starting rotation's ERA in the second half...5.62. The bullpen has been even worse...7.36.
The 80's Braves teams are calling and saying "damn man, that's rough."
The 119 loss Tigers team a few years ago just sent a txt, "keep yo head up."
Tanner of the Bad News Bears just yelled, "God damn, man, kick some fucking ass."
The way the team is playing, they wouldn't even beat the Hawaii Little League team.
Is it over yet?
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Glavine's Last Stand
Well, it looks like the sun has set on the career of Tom Glavine. It's his last call. One last dying breath.
Perhaps I've cliche'd myself up too much. Anywho, according to the World Wide Leader in Poorly Covered Sports...
Braves pitcher Tom Glavine is out for the season, and his illustrious career could be over if he needs major surgery on his injured left elbow.
The 42-year-old Glavine still hopes to return next year -- unless he needs elbow ligament replacement surgery.
According to another link I read, Glavine would be "shocked" if there wasn't anything wrong with his elbow. So chances are heavy that Glavine has hit the end of the road. He's a sure Hall of Famer, a 300 game winner, a two time Cy Young winner, a World Series MVP, and a hell of a slapshot.
So...big thumbs up on that signing!
Perhaps I've cliche'd myself up too much. Anywho, according to the World Wide Leader in Poorly Covered Sports...
Braves pitcher Tom Glavine is out for the season, and his illustrious career could be over if he needs major surgery on his injured left elbow.
The 42-year-old Glavine still hopes to return next year -- unless he needs elbow ligament replacement surgery.
According to another link I read, Glavine would be "shocked" if there wasn't anything wrong with his elbow. So chances are heavy that Glavine has hit the end of the road. He's a sure Hall of Famer, a 300 game winner, a two time Cy Young winner, a World Series MVP, and a hell of a slapshot.
So...big thumbs up on that signing!
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Matt Effin DeSalvo?
The Braves are so bad off that recently activated Tom Glavine hits the DL a-GIN and we call up Matt DeSalvo. He's not even a AAAA pitcher having a good year. I know win-loss records aren't that helpful, but something tells me that no amount of sabermetrics will put a positive spin on a 2-11 record at AAA.
This just in...Richmond is horrible.
Where's Brad Woodall when you need him?
This just in...Richmond is horrible.
Where's Brad Woodall when you need him?
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Um, yeah
So my last post talked about renewed faith. Well, that went away with Francoeur's promotion after, oh, three hours. Maybe it was five hours, but I know the demotion did not last nearly long enough. Since then, the Braves have officially packed it in, trading Teix to the Angels for Casey Krotchman (thanks Francoeur) and some minor league pitcher. I am not going to delve into whether the Braves got enough. Either way, it's done and gone.
Also gone is Tim Hudson. Tommy John. Oh happy day...
Also gone, but with great sadness, Skip Carey. While Skip was never my favorite announcer, he was a fun one to listen to. You can find several links to quotes, tributes, etc. at this chopnation link. By the way, we have closed off new members from easily coming on board due to spam. If you want to join chopnation, register and then e-mail me. You'll be in shortly.
What else...
Oh, Jeff Francoeur sucks. Like seriously. Like, even AJC is saying it. I mean, when Bobby finally breaks down and says..."ya know, I'd rather start an outfield of Infante, Kotsay, and Blanco than have you start Francoeur" your career took a wrong turn at Albuquerque.
Charlie Morton has had a few good starts. Still not nearly convinced he's much of anything.
Tom Glavine's returning Wednesday. I am really hoping he has a nice few starts and the Braves can pull a waiver deal.
What to look forward the rest of the way...see if KJ can finally turn the corner this season. He's been flirting with really good and really average numbers...how great will McCann's season rank in Braves history among catchers?...can Chipper stay healthy and hit well enough to take home a batting title?...can Jurrjens finish strong and make it really hard for the baseball writers to ignore what he has done this year?...what roles will Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, and Jo-Jo Reyes play in September?
I am actually interested in what happens the rest of the way. After all, according to the Forbes, I am quite loyal to the Braves.
Also gone is Tim Hudson. Tommy John. Oh happy day...
Also gone, but with great sadness, Skip Carey. While Skip was never my favorite announcer, he was a fun one to listen to. You can find several links to quotes, tributes, etc. at this chopnation link. By the way, we have closed off new members from easily coming on board due to spam. If you want to join chopnation, register and then e-mail me. You'll be in shortly.
What else...
Oh, Jeff Francoeur sucks. Like seriously. Like, even AJC is saying it. I mean, when Bobby finally breaks down and says..."ya know, I'd rather start an outfield of Infante, Kotsay, and Blanco than have you start Francoeur" your career took a wrong turn at Albuquerque.
Charlie Morton has had a few good starts. Still not nearly convinced he's much of anything.
Tom Glavine's returning Wednesday. I am really hoping he has a nice few starts and the Braves can pull a waiver deal.
What to look forward the rest of the way...see if KJ can finally turn the corner this season. He's been flirting with really good and really average numbers...how great will McCann's season rank in Braves history among catchers?...can Chipper stay healthy and hit well enough to take home a batting title?...can Jurrjens finish strong and make it really hard for the baseball writers to ignore what he has done this year?...what roles will Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, and Jo-Jo Reyes play in September?
I am actually interested in what happens the rest of the way. After all, according to the Forbes, I am quite loyal to the Braves.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Oh, the times are a'changing
I don't post for over a month and suddenly, the Braves grow some testicles? Who knew?
Well, if you have been living under a rock the past few days, the Braves decided yesterday to option struggling right-fielder Jeff Francoeur to Mississippi and purchased the contract of little-known Jason Perry from Richmond. The team then went out and finally won, ending a streak of five straight loses. Granted, it was Houston the Braves defeated and the ancient Brian Mohler, but a win is a win, right?
Sending Francoeur down was definitely a changing of the guard. A very un-Schuerholz type move, especially in recent years. The Braves often refused to make tough decisions with their own players, including who to give up on, who to demote, and who to eliminate. Well, the latter would be breaking the law, but still, it's a tough decision.
But this decision has in a way renewed my faith in my team. That faith has, I admit, been wavering as I witnessed their consistent inability to win games and seem to give a damn while they did. Chipper Jones was battling for icon status and the team just never seemed to care to get better around him.
Francoeur's decision can go one of three ways.
The first is the one I most doubt. Francoeur not getting better as a byproduct of this decision. Francoeur has been hyped since day one as the Natural, the Franchise, the Golden Boy, and whatever bullshit label in the book. Now, he's simply Mississippi's starting right fielder. For the first time in a few years, he has to take a step back personally and professionally. Second, he's been pretty abysmal so he has to get better. At the time of his demotion, he was hitting .234/.287/.374. To put that number into context, in 1991, Rafael Belliard hit 249/.296/.286. Essentially, Francoeur was a roided up Rafael Belliard. Francoeur is not going to be a great player, but he is better than that.
Another way the demotion could go is to jumpstart the team. Sometimes, just showing you have the balls to make a tough decision lights a fire under a team. I doubt that any fire lit after the demotion will continue to burn beyond a few games, but it might be enough to get the team to springboard into the second half.
A third way this demotion could impact the team is that at least for the Braves starting right fielder, it might help him finally make long-term adjustments. Since his promotion in July of 2005, Francoeur has seemed to always take a step forward and then another back. He hit dominated after his promotion in 2005, but struggled in September. He hit 29 homers in 2006, but posted a .293 OBP. He came close to doubling his walk total in 2007, but his power slumped to 19 homers. This year, he talked a big game about 30 homers and 20 steals. He was on pace for 15 homers and had yet to steal a base successfully. Francoeur's fall from grace is complete. He has been humbled. Now he has to get better because the Braves have shown baseball that they think he's flawed, too.
I think he will get better, but again, I don't think he is much better than league average. But right now, with this pisspoor outfield the Braves are putting out, league average would be a vast improvement.
Well, if you have been living under a rock the past few days, the Braves decided yesterday to option struggling right-fielder Jeff Francoeur to Mississippi and purchased the contract of little-known Jason Perry from Richmond. The team then went out and finally won, ending a streak of five straight loses. Granted, it was Houston the Braves defeated and the ancient Brian Mohler, but a win is a win, right?
Sending Francoeur down was definitely a changing of the guard. A very un-Schuerholz type move, especially in recent years. The Braves often refused to make tough decisions with their own players, including who to give up on, who to demote, and who to eliminate. Well, the latter would be breaking the law, but still, it's a tough decision.
But this decision has in a way renewed my faith in my team. That faith has, I admit, been wavering as I witnessed their consistent inability to win games and seem to give a damn while they did. Chipper Jones was battling for icon status and the team just never seemed to care to get better around him.
Francoeur's decision can go one of three ways.
The first is the one I most doubt. Francoeur not getting better as a byproduct of this decision. Francoeur has been hyped since day one as the Natural, the Franchise, the Golden Boy, and whatever bullshit label in the book. Now, he's simply Mississippi's starting right fielder. For the first time in a few years, he has to take a step back personally and professionally. Second, he's been pretty abysmal so he has to get better. At the time of his demotion, he was hitting .234/.287/.374. To put that number into context, in 1991, Rafael Belliard hit 249/.296/.286. Essentially, Francoeur was a roided up Rafael Belliard. Francoeur is not going to be a great player, but he is better than that.
Another way the demotion could go is to jumpstart the team. Sometimes, just showing you have the balls to make a tough decision lights a fire under a team. I doubt that any fire lit after the demotion will continue to burn beyond a few games, but it might be enough to get the team to springboard into the second half.
A third way this demotion could impact the team is that at least for the Braves starting right fielder, it might help him finally make long-term adjustments. Since his promotion in July of 2005, Francoeur has seemed to always take a step forward and then another back. He hit dominated after his promotion in 2005, but struggled in September. He hit 29 homers in 2006, but posted a .293 OBP. He came close to doubling his walk total in 2007, but his power slumped to 19 homers. This year, he talked a big game about 30 homers and 20 steals. He was on pace for 15 homers and had yet to steal a base successfully. Francoeur's fall from grace is complete. He has been humbled. Now he has to get better because the Braves have shown baseball that they think he's flawed, too.
I think he will get better, but again, I don't think he is much better than league average. But right now, with this pisspoor outfield the Braves are putting out, league average would be a vast improvement.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
You Got Questions?
Forty-two games into the season, the Braves inability to go one way or another has forced me to ask many questions. And in a true sign of ego, I will also answer them.
1. Are the Braves a .500 team?
Atlanta seems incapable of getting a run and staying above .500. A five-game win streak got them to 10-9, they lost two straight. Got back to 12-11, lost four straight. Followed that with another five game win streak to get to 18-15, lost three straight, and have been alternating wins and loses since to come into Sunday at 21-21.
Now, most will point two the road record (6-16), but I think that is misleading. They have only allowed seven more runs on the road than they've scored so that record should not be that bad. Then there is the 2-12 one-run record. I feel one-run records can be a sign that the bullpen hasn't been keeping leads, but its hard to really get much out of the record beyond that and there are better ways of seeing how effective the bullpen has been at keeping leads.
I think right now...the Braves are merely a .500 team for a few reasons. The starting pitching has yet to show up beyond Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Tom Glavine has had a few games and a few bad ones so in truth, that is what the Braves had to expect from him. That is why they needed three reliable pitchers _and_ Glav. They do not have that. Jo-Jo Reyes has shown a bit more control than he did last year with just five walks in three games, but he has been far too hittable. Chuck James was horrible and demoted. Jeff Bennett retakes his place and in Bennett's defense, he never lost a spot in the staff. His three starts aren't that bad (0-1, 3.07 ERA)
And then, there is the bullpen. In the late innings, this pen is really at a disadvantage. Manny Acosta simply isn't that good. Blaine Boyer's arm will likely self-destruct if he doesn't get a few days off. Royce Ring has sorta done his job. He somehow has been recorded as pitching seven innings...in 17 games. Will Ohman's WHIP is scary, but the results haven't been. However, there is no Rafael Soriano, no Mike Gonzalez, not even a John Smoltz just yet. Phil Stockman will hopefully add something solid.
In the lineup, four players are getting it done, four are not. That sets you up for a lot of innings where rallies get started, but not finished. Chipper Jones is obviously incredible and Yunel Escobar, Mark Kotsay, and Brian McCann have followed suit. But the Braves need, absolutely need, better production from Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur. The LF platoon of Matt Diaz/Gregor Blanco isn't too bad, but one can't hit for power and the other can't get on base.
The lineup is the easiest to fix. You just have to believe that players will perform up to their reasonable expectations. But the pitching will need work and improved health, especially in the pen. I am still convinced that if the Braves want to compete for a spot in October, they need a starter to step behind Hudson and Jurrjens.
2. Will Chipper hit .400?
Simple answer, no. But he will win his first batting title this year and if the Braves can somehow get into the playoffs, will be in line for his second MVP. Chipper is locked in like I have never seen him. If he can stay healthy and play 145 games, I have to believe that he can definitely hit above .350, which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself. In the last five years, five players have managed that feat (Ichiro twice).
3. Are the Braves better with KJ and Kotsay switching spots?
Stagnant, not better. While Kots is outproducing KJ so far, KJ remains the better offensive talent and while Bobby Cox never seems to agree, the better player to receive more at-bats. You organize your batting lineup to get your best offensive players the most at-bats. Hence why the top five players should include KJ, Yunie, Chipper, Teix, and McCann. Maybe if it's a lefty on the mound, I could see dropping McCann and hitting Francoeur fifth.
4. Finally, will Mike Hampton finally help the Braves win games this year?
Yes.
By not pitching them.
1. Are the Braves a .500 team?
Atlanta seems incapable of getting a run and staying above .500. A five-game win streak got them to 10-9, they lost two straight. Got back to 12-11, lost four straight. Followed that with another five game win streak to get to 18-15, lost three straight, and have been alternating wins and loses since to come into Sunday at 21-21.
Now, most will point two the road record (6-16), but I think that is misleading. They have only allowed seven more runs on the road than they've scored so that record should not be that bad. Then there is the 2-12 one-run record. I feel one-run records can be a sign that the bullpen hasn't been keeping leads, but its hard to really get much out of the record beyond that and there are better ways of seeing how effective the bullpen has been at keeping leads.
I think right now...the Braves are merely a .500 team for a few reasons. The starting pitching has yet to show up beyond Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Tom Glavine has had a few games and a few bad ones so in truth, that is what the Braves had to expect from him. That is why they needed three reliable pitchers _and_ Glav. They do not have that. Jo-Jo Reyes has shown a bit more control than he did last year with just five walks in three games, but he has been far too hittable. Chuck James was horrible and demoted. Jeff Bennett retakes his place and in Bennett's defense, he never lost a spot in the staff. His three starts aren't that bad (0-1, 3.07 ERA)
And then, there is the bullpen. In the late innings, this pen is really at a disadvantage. Manny Acosta simply isn't that good. Blaine Boyer's arm will likely self-destruct if he doesn't get a few days off. Royce Ring has sorta done his job. He somehow has been recorded as pitching seven innings...in 17 games. Will Ohman's WHIP is scary, but the results haven't been. However, there is no Rafael Soriano, no Mike Gonzalez, not even a John Smoltz just yet. Phil Stockman will hopefully add something solid.
In the lineup, four players are getting it done, four are not. That sets you up for a lot of innings where rallies get started, but not finished. Chipper Jones is obviously incredible and Yunel Escobar, Mark Kotsay, and Brian McCann have followed suit. But the Braves need, absolutely need, better production from Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur. The LF platoon of Matt Diaz/Gregor Blanco isn't too bad, but one can't hit for power and the other can't get on base.
The lineup is the easiest to fix. You just have to believe that players will perform up to their reasonable expectations. But the pitching will need work and improved health, especially in the pen. I am still convinced that if the Braves want to compete for a spot in October, they need a starter to step behind Hudson and Jurrjens.
2. Will Chipper hit .400?
Simple answer, no. But he will win his first batting title this year and if the Braves can somehow get into the playoffs, will be in line for his second MVP. Chipper is locked in like I have never seen him. If he can stay healthy and play 145 games, I have to believe that he can definitely hit above .350, which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself. In the last five years, five players have managed that feat (Ichiro twice).
3. Are the Braves better with KJ and Kotsay switching spots?
Stagnant, not better. While Kots is outproducing KJ so far, KJ remains the better offensive talent and while Bobby Cox never seems to agree, the better player to receive more at-bats. You organize your batting lineup to get your best offensive players the most at-bats. Hence why the top five players should include KJ, Yunie, Chipper, Teix, and McCann. Maybe if it's a lefty on the mound, I could see dropping McCann and hitting Francoeur fifth.
4. Finally, will Mike Hampton finally help the Braves win games this year?
Yes.
By not pitching them.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
The Right Man for the Job?
After last season ended, the lack of reliable starting pitching came to the forefront as a serious problem for the Atlanta Braves. The rotation last year combined for a 4.45 ERA and once you take out the two aces (John Smoltz and Tim Hudson), the staff managed just 5.1 ING per start. The bullpen, the focus of the previous offseason, stood up admirably well, posting a top notch 3.54 ERA despite three pitchers getting into 70 games.
Frank Wren's first offseason was spent scouring the league in search for starting pitching. He traded for the tremendously talented but raw Jair Jurrjens and signed the former Brave Tom Glavine. Despite the fact that he was relying so much on Smoltz and Glavine and their combined 83 birthday celebrations, the staff was supposed to be competitive starting crew with returnees Hudson, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Buddy Carlyle, and - of course - Mike Hampton.
Through one-plus months of ball, we know these sure things.
-John Smoltz is hurt, probably not going to start another game this year.
-Jair Jurrjens is the real deal, one of the game's most promising pitchers.
-Mike Hampton is hurt. Again.
With Hudson and Jurrjens, the Braves have two very good starters who give the Braves a chance to win each game. Glavine has been decent and basically giving the Braves what I felt he was capable of. Decent effort, nothing more. Essentially, an overpaid Chuck James without James' penchant for giving up homers. Speaking of James, there has been little progression in the numbers for him or Reyes.
Without Smoltz, this staff looks pretty weak. It is time to move on to more options.
Possibly the quickest fix is Greg Maddux. Now, I am not a sentimental guy. The Big Three getting together for one last run with Uncle Bobby and Cousin Chip means little to me. What does interest me is Maddux's impact on the team.
While much was made of Maddux's inability to win 350 in a timely matter, the numbers show that Maddux has been as good as anyone the Braves can realistically target. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a number that shows a pitcher's true ERA, sits at 3.74. He would fit nicely behind Hudson and Jurrjens and provide some insurance if Jurrjens fails to keep up his high level through the dog days of summer.
Maddux also averages around six innings a start. If Glavine can do the same, it would give you two inning-eaters. Both pitchers would provide another year of learning for Jo-Jo Reyes, who can be left at Richmond barring injury.
Getting Maddux might be complicated. He will be paid $10M this year and has a no-trade clause. However, it would be a good bet to say that Maddux would waive it to get out of the San Diego sinking ship and go to a team like Atlanta. He would be comfortable here, pitching in a stadium he won many games with teammates he is used to.
The time to start talking to the Padres is now. The quicker this deal is done, the easier it will be to acquire Maddux. The last thing you want is a bidding war in July. The Padres don't seem to be going anywhere and have shown in recent days that they are willing to move in another direction.
Bring back Mad Dog.
The offense will come together. There are just too many good hitters for it not to. Add Maddux to the staff and whatever help Smoltz, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano give to the bullpen and the Braves suddenly look like true blue contenders.
(Idea inspired by this post at chopnation.
Frank Wren's first offseason was spent scouring the league in search for starting pitching. He traded for the tremendously talented but raw Jair Jurrjens and signed the former Brave Tom Glavine. Despite the fact that he was relying so much on Smoltz and Glavine and their combined 83 birthday celebrations, the staff was supposed to be competitive starting crew with returnees Hudson, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Buddy Carlyle, and - of course - Mike Hampton.
Through one-plus months of ball, we know these sure things.
-John Smoltz is hurt, probably not going to start another game this year.
-Jair Jurrjens is the real deal, one of the game's most promising pitchers.
-Mike Hampton is hurt. Again.
With Hudson and Jurrjens, the Braves have two very good starters who give the Braves a chance to win each game. Glavine has been decent and basically giving the Braves what I felt he was capable of. Decent effort, nothing more. Essentially, an overpaid Chuck James without James' penchant for giving up homers. Speaking of James, there has been little progression in the numbers for him or Reyes.
Without Smoltz, this staff looks pretty weak. It is time to move on to more options.
Possibly the quickest fix is Greg Maddux. Now, I am not a sentimental guy. The Big Three getting together for one last run with Uncle Bobby and Cousin Chip means little to me. What does interest me is Maddux's impact on the team.
While much was made of Maddux's inability to win 350 in a timely matter, the numbers show that Maddux has been as good as anyone the Braves can realistically target. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a number that shows a pitcher's true ERA, sits at 3.74. He would fit nicely behind Hudson and Jurrjens and provide some insurance if Jurrjens fails to keep up his high level through the dog days of summer.
Maddux also averages around six innings a start. If Glavine can do the same, it would give you two inning-eaters. Both pitchers would provide another year of learning for Jo-Jo Reyes, who can be left at Richmond barring injury.
Getting Maddux might be complicated. He will be paid $10M this year and has a no-trade clause. However, it would be a good bet to say that Maddux would waive it to get out of the San Diego sinking ship and go to a team like Atlanta. He would be comfortable here, pitching in a stadium he won many games with teammates he is used to.
The time to start talking to the Padres is now. The quicker this deal is done, the easier it will be to acquire Maddux. The last thing you want is a bidding war in July. The Padres don't seem to be going anywhere and have shown in recent days that they are willing to move in another direction.
Bring back Mad Dog.
The offense will come together. There are just too many good hitters for it not to. Add Maddux to the staff and whatever help Smoltz, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano give to the bullpen and the Braves suddenly look like true blue contenders.
(Idea inspired by this post at chopnation.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Braves Fall 3-2 to Bucs
-There goes the win streak.
-Bobby Cox's decisions bugged me tremendously in this game. Bunting with Greg Norton and sticking with Glavine after luckily getting six average innings are the biggest two. I hate the bunt and I hate Glavine so sticking with him just made me want to slap someone.
-The hitters...were horrible.
-Urgh. Frustrating game.
-Bobby Cox's decisions bugged me tremendously in this game. Bunting with Greg Norton and sticking with Glavine after luckily getting six average innings are the biggest two. I hate the bunt and I hate Glavine so sticking with him just made me want to slap someone.
-The hitters...were horrible.
-Urgh. Frustrating game.
Friday, May 9, 2008
John Sickels reviews Tommy Hanson
My favorite minor league analyst reviewing my favorite Braves prospect.
Tommy Hanson was drafted by the Braves in the 22nd round in 2005, a draft-and-follow pick from Riverside CC in California. He signed and made his pro debut in 2006, going 4-1, 2.09 with a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 51 innings for Danville in the Appalachian League, showing excellent control of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, but noted that he had higher potential and that there was a chance he could break through in '07 and '08, possibly emerging as a top prospect.
Hanson began 2007 with Rome in the Sally League, going 2-6 but with a 2.59 ERA and a 90/26 K/BB in 73 innings, with just 51 hits allowed. Promoted to Myrtle Beach at mid-season, he went 3-3, 4.20 with a 64/32 K/BB in 60 innings. The main negative here was an elevated home run rate at Myrtle Beach, with 10 homers given up in just 11 starts and 60 innings. Nevertheless, I was impressed with him and gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, a grade for which I took some flack. Most people seemed to think he was more of a Grade B/B- type guy.
I personally think the grade is fair. I think a B- grade would have been low and he is somewhere between B and B+ for sure, maybe closer to the latter. When I look at Hanson, I see a guy who stays young enough for his level, but does well each stop. Even his struggles at Myrtle Beach were not particularly tough to imagine because he had youth on his side.
2008 has been great so far: 3-1, 0.79 for Myrtle Beach, with a 42/10 K/BB in 34 innings and just 14 hits allowed, zero homers. Yes he's repeating the league, but given the way he's dominated so far I imagine a promotion to Double-A will be in order shortly and we'll get a better read on his progress then. He's just 21 so although he's a league-repeater he isn't old for the competition by any means.
I think inning-repeater is a bit disingenuous. Yes, he's repeating a level because he finished last year with the Pelicans, but that is a scant 94 total innings with the Pelicans.
Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.
Definitely my concern too. He fluctuates between 30% and 40% for groundballs. That is a bit of a fear. But then, if it works for Cole Hamels...
It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.
My grade? B+
I think he can be a solid starter in the mold Sickels suggests, possibly better. According to the comments, Hanson has brought increased velocity this year, allowing him to remain a strikeout threat.
Tommy Hanson was drafted by the Braves in the 22nd round in 2005, a draft-and-follow pick from Riverside CC in California. He signed and made his pro debut in 2006, going 4-1, 2.09 with a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 51 innings for Danville in the Appalachian League, showing excellent control of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2007 book, but noted that he had higher potential and that there was a chance he could break through in '07 and '08, possibly emerging as a top prospect.
Hanson began 2007 with Rome in the Sally League, going 2-6 but with a 2.59 ERA and a 90/26 K/BB in 73 innings, with just 51 hits allowed. Promoted to Myrtle Beach at mid-season, he went 3-3, 4.20 with a 64/32 K/BB in 60 innings. The main negative here was an elevated home run rate at Myrtle Beach, with 10 homers given up in just 11 starts and 60 innings. Nevertheless, I was impressed with him and gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year, a grade for which I took some flack. Most people seemed to think he was more of a Grade B/B- type guy.
I personally think the grade is fair. I think a B- grade would have been low and he is somewhere between B and B+ for sure, maybe closer to the latter. When I look at Hanson, I see a guy who stays young enough for his level, but does well each stop. Even his struggles at Myrtle Beach were not particularly tough to imagine because he had youth on his side.
2008 has been great so far: 3-1, 0.79 for Myrtle Beach, with a 42/10 K/BB in 34 innings and just 14 hits allowed, zero homers. Yes he's repeating the league, but given the way he's dominated so far I imagine a promotion to Double-A will be in order shortly and we'll get a better read on his progress then. He's just 21 so although he's a league-repeater he isn't old for the competition by any means.
I think inning-repeater is a bit disingenuous. Yes, he's repeating a level because he finished last year with the Pelicans, but that is a scant 94 total innings with the Pelicans.
Hanson is a big guy at 6-6, 210 pounds but he keeps his mechanics in gear most of the time. His fastball is solid at 89-92 MPH, with movement. His curveball is excellent and he's made significant improvements with his changeup. My only real concern here is that he's very much a fly ball pitcher, which could leave him vulnerable to excessive gophers at higher levels.
Definitely my concern too. He fluctuates between 30% and 40% for groundballs. That is a bit of a fear. But then, if it works for Cole Hamels...
It's too early to draw comparisons to other pitchers, but if he stays healthy I think Hanson projects as a number three starter. If he can pick up a bit more consistent velocity and maintain his command, he could exceed that. Let's see what happens when he hits Double-A. Does his strikeout rate stay steady? Do the home runs come back? These are the two main questions for me.
My grade? B+
I think he can be a solid starter in the mold Sickels suggests, possibly better. According to the comments, Hanson has brought increased velocity this year, allowing him to remain a strikeout threat.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Omar, where you been?
From the latest Braves team report via Yahoo.
INF Omar Infante’s debut with the Braves should come in a week or less—however long it takes for him to get enough at-bats in his minor league starts to feel comfortable. Infante, on the disabled list all season with a broken left hand, went a combined 2-for-7 in his first two rehab games with Class AAA Richmond on Monday and Tuesday.
Okay, that's all good and so forth...but who loses their spot?
Well, currently, the Braves have five bench players. Greg Norton and Gregor Blanco (or should I say Matt Diaz?) are safe. Corky Miller probably is too because he is getting the backup catcher time.
That leaves a pair of players who are out of options in Ruben Gotay and Brayan Pena. My gut tells me Gotay will get the boot, but I would prefer to keep Gotay and do something with Pena. Pena is essentially dead weight with Norton around. Before, Pena was the first bat off the bench. He has been replaced. Norton can play all the positions Pena can except catch, though by Bobby's refusal to use him as a catcher and all the commentary to say pitchers don't like throwing to Pena, he isn't a catcher either. At least not in the system.
Time to put him on the table and get something for him. He really has no place on this team now. Pena is a good hitter and maybe another organization will use him as a catcher, maximizing his value. Probably not and he probably should have been traded before that became known, but oh well. Pena has had 14 AB and the only game he has come to the plate twice was the time the Braves batted around so he got two plate appearances as a pinch hitter. He has had absolutely no use for a glove. Get it done, Wren.
And no, I didn't say get r done. If you say that around me, I might be forced to slap you. Sorry, but its got to be said.
UPDATE...oh, so I write all that and after tonight's game, the Braves DL'd Pena and recalled Infante. So...I'm sorta right.
----
Rafael Soriano hurts and nobody seems to know why. But then again, that's why he has tendinitis, which is greek for "I hurt yet no one knows why."
The article also mentions Peter Moylan, who will get operated on tomorrow and no one really knows how bad he is. I swear, did the Braves change their HMO or what?
----
Good win tonight by the Braves, though they wasted a lot of opportunities. I know Bobby won't, but I'd like to see an outfield of Diaz, Kots, and Blanco tomorrow.
INF Omar Infante’s debut with the Braves should come in a week or less—however long it takes for him to get enough at-bats in his minor league starts to feel comfortable. Infante, on the disabled list all season with a broken left hand, went a combined 2-for-7 in his first two rehab games with Class AAA Richmond on Monday and Tuesday.
Okay, that's all good and so forth...but who loses their spot?
Well, currently, the Braves have five bench players. Greg Norton and Gregor Blanco (or should I say Matt Diaz?) are safe. Corky Miller probably is too because he is getting the backup catcher time.
That leaves a pair of players who are out of options in Ruben Gotay and Brayan Pena. My gut tells me Gotay will get the boot, but I would prefer to keep Gotay and do something with Pena. Pena is essentially dead weight with Norton around. Before, Pena was the first bat off the bench. He has been replaced. Norton can play all the positions Pena can except catch, though by Bobby's refusal to use him as a catcher and all the commentary to say pitchers don't like throwing to Pena, he isn't a catcher either. At least not in the system.
Time to put him on the table and get something for him. He really has no place on this team now. Pena is a good hitter and maybe another organization will use him as a catcher, maximizing his value. Probably not and he probably should have been traded before that became known, but oh well. Pena has had 14 AB and the only game he has come to the plate twice was the time the Braves batted around so he got two plate appearances as a pinch hitter. He has had absolutely no use for a glove. Get it done, Wren.
And no, I didn't say get r done. If you say that around me, I might be forced to slap you. Sorry, but its got to be said.
UPDATE...oh, so I write all that and after tonight's game, the Braves DL'd Pena and recalled Infante. So...I'm sorta right.
----
Rafael Soriano hurts and nobody seems to know why. But then again, that's why he has tendinitis, which is greek for "I hurt yet no one knows why."
The article also mentions Peter Moylan, who will get operated on tomorrow and no one really knows how bad he is. I swear, did the Braves change their HMO or what?
----
Good win tonight by the Braves, though they wasted a lot of opportunities. I know Bobby won't, but I'd like to see an outfield of Diaz, Kots, and Blanco tomorrow.
Smoltz...and Bonds!
Dugout Central chimes in with this column.
Last season Smoltz threw the second-most innings on the staff – about a seventh of their total innings. The team finished with the third-lowest ERA and the sixth-fewest runs allowed. Last season they probably didn’t have anyone capable of doing what Jair Jurrjens could do this season, and their pitching staff wasn’t as deep. It’s still hard to see this year’s pitching staff being significantly better than last seasons’. The Smoltz injury and subsequent move to the bullpen costs the Braves a lot of great innings.
It is a valid point. Without Smoltz in the rotation, someone has to pitch the other 170ish innings that coming into the season, Smoltz was relied on to pitch. That is a hell of a lot of innings to go. While I can agree with the comment at the bottom and having Smoltz for 40-60 more innings is better than zero innings, it does hurt this staff tremendously, turning what many called a deep staff into a thin one.
You can replace Mike Hampton. You can't replace John Smoltz.
To make the playoffs, they’ll need their offense to continue to be as good as expected. They’ll also need Tim Hudson to step up and Jurrjens to continue to pitch well. One more above average starter would also help. You can bet GM Frank Wren is working the phones looking for anyone willing to give up any decent starter to provide the Braves some quality innings. The challenge? What GM isn’t looking for the same?
Exactly. I did a little research last night for the kind of names the Braves might target (low cost, little investment in time) and came up with Odalis Perez, Livan Hernandez, and Shawn Chacon. Now, maybe the Braves want to put a big investment on the table...but it's going to cost them and I just don't think they are comfortable making their second straight prospect dump like they did with Teix.
Elsewhere, the MLBPA doesn't have enough to do is questioning why Barry Bonds is still a free agent and received no offers. At first glance, its easy to say "well, he has his legal troubles." Then maybe you can add that he's old and can't field worth a damn and always has had a girl's arm.
But it actually is a question worth asking. Last year, Bonds hit .276/.480/.565. There is not an AL team around that can't improve their DH numbers with Bonds?
Of course, he's a PR risk. And a clubhouse cancer. And he has small testicles after years of steroid abuse. But I gotta think the Orioles would have a better offense with Bonds.
Last season Smoltz threw the second-most innings on the staff – about a seventh of their total innings. The team finished with the third-lowest ERA and the sixth-fewest runs allowed. Last season they probably didn’t have anyone capable of doing what Jair Jurrjens could do this season, and their pitching staff wasn’t as deep. It’s still hard to see this year’s pitching staff being significantly better than last seasons’. The Smoltz injury and subsequent move to the bullpen costs the Braves a lot of great innings.
It is a valid point. Without Smoltz in the rotation, someone has to pitch the other 170ish innings that coming into the season, Smoltz was relied on to pitch. That is a hell of a lot of innings to go. While I can agree with the comment at the bottom and having Smoltz for 40-60 more innings is better than zero innings, it does hurt this staff tremendously, turning what many called a deep staff into a thin one.
You can replace Mike Hampton. You can't replace John Smoltz.
To make the playoffs, they’ll need their offense to continue to be as good as expected. They’ll also need Tim Hudson to step up and Jurrjens to continue to pitch well. One more above average starter would also help. You can bet GM Frank Wren is working the phones looking for anyone willing to give up any decent starter to provide the Braves some quality innings. The challenge? What GM isn’t looking for the same?
Exactly. I did a little research last night for the kind of names the Braves might target (low cost, little investment in time) and came up with Odalis Perez, Livan Hernandez, and Shawn Chacon. Now, maybe the Braves want to put a big investment on the table...but it's going to cost them and I just don't think they are comfortable making their second straight prospect dump like they did with Teix.
Elsewhere, the MLBPA doesn't have enough to do is questioning why Barry Bonds is still a free agent and received no offers. At first glance, its easy to say "well, he has his legal troubles." Then maybe you can add that he's old and can't field worth a damn and always has had a girl's arm.
But it actually is a question worth asking. Last year, Bonds hit .276/.480/.565. There is not an AL team around that can't improve their DH numbers with Bonds?
Of course, he's a PR risk. And a clubhouse cancer. And he has small testicles after years of steroid abuse. But I gotta think the Orioles would have a better offense with Bonds.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Let's Meet...Greg Norton!
That's Mr. Norton looking pretty happy as a D-Ray. Now, they are just the Rays. Oh wells.He was probably happy in Tampa because he had his best season there in 2006 when he hit .296/.374/.520 with 17 homers. After sucking last year, he picked up with the Mariners and was forced out because of a number crunch despite hitting well in limited opportunities. The Braves acquired him today for a player to be named and he will replace Martin Prado, who stupidly hurt his wrist sliding into first yesterday.
Norton is your typical reserve corner guy. He can play some first, third, right, and left. In a pinch, you can move him to second, but you would rather not. He's not going to hit for much average, but does get on base pretty well despite a low average and will hit for some pop. And he's a switch-hitter, which helps matters.
Norton was originally a second round choice of the Chicago White Sox, where he spent most of his professional career until signing with the Rockies in 2000. After two years there, he spent a year with Detroit, back with the Rockies for spring training in '05, back with the ChiSox for the rest of '05, two years with the Rays, and then the start of this year with the M's where he was 7 of 16 this year after getting called up.
A small deal that could be useful depending on which Norton you get ('06 or '07 Norton).
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