-Camp Roger is upon us and DOB is there. Apparently, the fact that Peter Moylan has tattoos is the first story that needs to be discussed. The Braves may or may not be able to get by the Mets this year, but we got a tattooed sidearming Aussie freak.
-Huddy talks about the Mets new pitcher. “He’s pretty good, but he’s not unbeatable. He got hit around a little bit last year.”
While Santana's H/9 last year was 7.52, slightly more than his 7.34 career mark, I wouldn't say he got hit around a bit. Especially if I was like Timothy and my H/9 last year was 8.87. Santana is so much more than pretty good. The only pitcher in baseball that can even come close to Santana is Jake Peavy. Timmyboy, just don't give him any kind of motivation to beat the Braves. He doesn't need it.
-Two outfielders are bigger, according to DOB. Jeff Francoeur kind of scares me. I really think people like to talk about the 30 HR mark too much. Francoeur did not reach that mark last year, but he was so much better than he was the previous year. If he focuses on being a bigger power hitter, I'm worried. The other outfielder is Brandon Jones. I know most bloggers like Mac, Jenny, and Lauren can't fathom why Matt Diaz shouldn't be the everyday guy in left, but if Brandon Jones is getting a chance, I see why Diaz shouldn't be the everyday starter. Jones is going to be really good, I feel. If he adds more power to his rapidly developing game, he could add another big bat.
-If Teix doesn't sign...move Diaz to first fulltime. Just an idea.
-Other stuff...Blaine Boyer is getting a lot of press here and there. DOB talks him up a little as well. I think he has a leg up on any contenders for an open spot in the pen....Thor is still getting love from Bobby....Lillibridge has a future with the team. I really feel he'll be a starter sooner rather than later.
-Mike Hampton looks set for camp. Mac might be right after all about how big of a roll Hambone can play next year if he can just be healthy. But Wren is fooling himself or just taking a good PR class this winter to say the Braves rotation is nine-deep. Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, Hambone, James, Reyes, Jurrjens, Bennett,...Zane Smith?
-What the hell is with all the talking about Jeff Bennett? I'm going to have to use that damn tag more often it seems.
-The Braves signed another Aussie. He kinda looks like a serial killer. He plays shortstop. That's...um...about all I know.
-Damn, it's nice to get baseball back into the blog.
Showing posts with label Aussie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aussie. Show all posts
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Links A'Hoy!
Lots of random links since the beginning of the new year.
-The Herald Sun out of Australia has an article on Peter Moylan out. Your basic "God, this Aussie is ever so cool" article with movie references. Sorry Lauren, not much new info here.
-DOB talks about Braves FanFest and the players that will be, but also touches on Jeff Francoeur. Nothing really amazing, just a look back at Francoeur and nothing on a possible contract. I wonder if this season is the season Francoeur signs or drags it through arbitration first.
-Ohhh, a DOB reference _AND_ a Bowman one. Marky boy is out with a look at the Braves catchers. If Bowman is the propaganda specialist for the Braves, Javy Lopez is the backup catcher as I said. Some have commented that Javy's going to have to *earn* his shot, but even if he's outplayed, I believe he has it clinched.
While McCann is certainly an adept offensive catcher, he has room for improvement from a defensive perspective. His .987 fielding percentage ranked second-worst among NL catchers. In addition, only Milwaukee's Johnny Estrada and Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba had a worse caught-stealing percentage.
While I agree he badly needs to improve, what the hell does fielding percentage tell you about a catcher? I don't mind people not using stats or hating stats all together. But if you choose to use them, at least use reasonable ones. Caught-stealing percentage is decent, though you can't ignore the pitchers' impact on things.
Still, McCann's knowledge of pitchers allowed Braves pitchers to produce a 3.90 ERA when he was behind the plate. That figure ranked first among all NL catchers.
Ahjesus, not catcher's ERA. Pick a stat that tells you something ABOUT the catcher's ability, Mark.
-Scott Proctor's Arm, a blog on the Yankees, has this tidbit. "Matt DeSalvo also signed a minor-league contract with the Atlanta Braves." Baseball America confirms it. I'd do a Meet and Greet, but not a lot to meet. He had a couple of decent games with the Yanks last year, but is all guts no talent, it seems.
-Oh, my first ten prospects of my Top 30 prospect list is finally up at chopnation.
-And buh bye.
-The Herald Sun out of Australia has an article on Peter Moylan out. Your basic "God, this Aussie is ever so cool" article with movie references. Sorry Lauren, not much new info here.
-DOB talks about Braves FanFest and the players that will be, but also touches on Jeff Francoeur. Nothing really amazing, just a look back at Francoeur and nothing on a possible contract. I wonder if this season is the season Francoeur signs or drags it through arbitration first.
-Ohhh, a DOB reference _AND_ a Bowman one. Marky boy is out with a look at the Braves catchers. If Bowman is the propaganda specialist for the Braves, Javy Lopez is the backup catcher as I said. Some have commented that Javy's going to have to *earn* his shot, but even if he's outplayed, I believe he has it clinched.
While McCann is certainly an adept offensive catcher, he has room for improvement from a defensive perspective. His .987 fielding percentage ranked second-worst among NL catchers. In addition, only Milwaukee's Johnny Estrada and Colorado's Yorvit Torrealba had a worse caught-stealing percentage.
While I agree he badly needs to improve, what the hell does fielding percentage tell you about a catcher? I don't mind people not using stats or hating stats all together. But if you choose to use them, at least use reasonable ones. Caught-stealing percentage is decent, though you can't ignore the pitchers' impact on things.
Still, McCann's knowledge of pitchers allowed Braves pitchers to produce a 3.90 ERA when he was behind the plate. That figure ranked first among all NL catchers.
Ahjesus, not catcher's ERA. Pick a stat that tells you something ABOUT the catcher's ability, Mark.
-Scott Proctor's Arm, a blog on the Yankees, has this tidbit. "Matt DeSalvo also signed a minor-league contract with the Atlanta Braves." Baseball America confirms it. I'd do a Meet and Greet, but not a lot to meet. He had a couple of decent games with the Yanks last year, but is all guts no talent, it seems.
-Oh, my first ten prospects of my Top 30 prospect list is finally up at chopnation.
-And buh bye.
Monday, October 15, 2007
A-Z Reviews: M
Macay McBride-McBride got off to one shitty start. After five games, he had pitched all of three innings and walked 11 batters. After a demotion that saw him get a lot of work as a starter for Richmond, he was back with the team in May and was generally decent. Over his next 13 games, he posted a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.00 ERA. And then, Schuerholz traded him to the Tigers for Wilfredo Ledezma in a deal that still does not make a lot of sense. He struggled at times with Detroit and appeared in his last game for the Tigers in August before being demoted. Not sure if he got hurt or anything.
2008 Outlook: While I was never that big of a fan of Macay...cause what kind of name is Macay?...McBride should stick around in this league for awhile. He's lefthanded and can throw hard. Still not sure why Schuerholz felt he had to deal McBride, but it was stupid at the time and it is more stupid now. He essentially traded McBride and Will Startup for Royce Ring. Seems like a lot of dumbassity.
Brian McCann-The Braves catcher that Lauren likes to call "Baby" (shudders) did not have that good of a year last year. Yes, I know he was not going to hit .333 every year, but his IsoOBP (which wasn't that good) went down slightly to 0.50 and his power slumped to .182 IsoSLG. Still great numbers for a catcher, but hardly the numbers the Braves were expecting after his remarkable 2006. McCann has worked at improving his defense and it was better last year, but remains average at best. An average offensive campaign like last year won't help matters.
2008 Outlook: I still like McCann and think he can improve his offensive numbers. What I would like to see is a .065 IsoOBP and a .205 IsoSLG. That means, if he batted .285 next year, his OBP would be .350 and his SLG would be at .490. These are very makable marks and highly valuable at his position. Staying healthy would help, too.
Corky Miller-The Life Goes On jokes are plentiful. Corky is your classic backup catcher. Can't hit, can play some defense, and oh, he can't hit. However, he was not that bad with the Braves, at least in limited at-bats. 7-for-29 (.259) with a pair of a doubles and a homer. All told, some good numbers. I still remember his first hit for the Braves because it was so effin strange. Called up after the Salty trade, Corky comes up in the 12th, Braves down by two against Brad Lidge. And the Corkster squibs a little swinging bunt toward second and gets an infield single, one of FOUR infield hits in his career. After a Willie strikeout, which he did often in the second half, Diaz hit a two-run bomb to tie the game up. The Legend of Cork lives on.
2008 Outlook: Brayan Pena is not a catching prospect anymore because pitchers can't stand him behind the plate, which might explain why no one has really tried to acquire him. Bringing Miller back just makes sense. He's great defensively and while he is a career .196 hitter, he does what he needs to do. If McCann went down, though, Miller would be a real weakness. Might want to bat the pitcher 8th when he hits.
Peter Moylan-Last year, I referred to Moylan as a potential sleeper for 2007. He finished up well in 2006 and his deceptive delivery poised problems, especially to righties, and the movement he could get was just sick. But anyone who says they saw his 2007 year coming is a liar or has a time machine. Moylan rubber-armed his way to 80 games and 90 innings in which he allowed just 65 hits. Concerns of overusage were put to bed somewhat as he kept getting outs. With a 1.80 ERA, he became the first Brave to put up a sub-2.00 ERA over a full season since John Smoltz did it in 2003 in his final year as a closer. His metrics aren't too shabby, too, at least in the sense to say, "he was lucky." In general, anyone with that low of an ERA is benefiting from some luck, but Moylan was not abnormally lucky.
2008 Outlook: He probably won't post another sub-2.00 ERA, but he has a good chance to be solid yet again. He gets a lot of grounders, enough strikeouts, and keeps the ball in play. If he was any better, I would go gay for him. Well, maybe not, but his marks are ridiculously good. Relievers often sparkle and fade in equally quick fashions so it's not prudent to get too stuck on him. Nevertheless, the Aussie should be pretty awesome next year.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Luck...and a little of bad luck
Somewhere, Billy Beane cringes a little each time "luck" is mentioned.
Sabermetrics has attempted for some time to quantify luck. Instead of simply saying Player A is hitting the ball well or just not seeing the ball, the numbers may show that one player is simply lucky or unlucky. It allows us a chance to prepare for a possible and pending evening out of a lucky player while staying upbeat about a struggling player.
A little sidenote, Hardball Times hasn't updated their numbers for yesterday's games so these numbers may be slightly off.
Two stats, one for pitchers and one for hitters, do that best I feel. First, we start on the mound. Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, tries to give an ERAish stat to a pitcher based on what he has the most control over - strikeouts, walks, homers, etc. - over hurting him because of his defense or whatever. FIP is exactly like ERA so a 3.00 FIP or lower is good and a 4.50 or higher FIP is not so good. For instance, Jorge Sosa's FIP in 2005 was 4.13, a good run and a half higher than his ERA, while his FIP last year with the Braves was around 5.83, pretty near his actual ERA of 5.46. Sosa was pitching lucky in 2005 but his numbers more accurately described his suckiness that year. For those scoring at home (congrats!), Sosa's ERA right now is 3.64. His FIP is 4.45. Will he put up lucky numbers again? Doubtful.
FIP can be used in direction relation with ERA, showing its best value. A negative number leads to one calling that pitcher "unlucky" while a positive number leads you to call that pitcher "lucky." Using a half-run either way as random ups and downs in the data, here are the lucky pitchers and unlucky pitchers.
Yeah, that's about it. Two unlucky pitchers. Mark Redman's also on this list, but being how he's not a Brave anymore, I just don't care to mention the Indian more than I have to. He did just sign with the Texas Rangers proving that in the 21st century, cowboys and indians do get along.
On one side, Tyler Yates unluckiness is a bit overstated. His expected FIP is 3.49 so he's probably not mentioning up to that 2.59 FIP, but his ERA is more telling of how useless it is to look much at a reliever's ERA and draw anything from it. On the other hand, Paronto has been "unlucky" but still pretty bad.
How scary is this? Well, if those are your only two unlucky pitchers, how many lucky pitchers are we throwing out there? Well, a great bulk of players fall in the half-run higher or lower catagory, including: Kyle Davies, Oscar Villarreal, Rafael Soriano, Chuck James, Tim Hudson, and Bob Wickman. So really, what you get from those guys is pretty clear. That leaves three more players to mention. I am leaving out McBride (a fourth lucky pitcher) because of his lack of innings.
Smoltzie is still pretty hot so that's not much of a worry. Gonzo's ERA just needed to even out from its way too low number. On the other hand, Moylan's number is pretty telling. His number basically finds its origins in his LOB%, the same number that helped Sosa put up a sub 3.00 ERA. 85.6% of baserunners to reach against Moylan were left on base. He may be able to continue that, but it's doubtful. Eventually, runs start to score.
On the flipside and the focus of a future column...PrOPS or predicted OPS. Look for it during the week.
Sabermetrics has attempted for some time to quantify luck. Instead of simply saying Player A is hitting the ball well or just not seeing the ball, the numbers may show that one player is simply lucky or unlucky. It allows us a chance to prepare for a possible and pending evening out of a lucky player while staying upbeat about a struggling player.
A little sidenote, Hardball Times hasn't updated their numbers for yesterday's games so these numbers may be slightly off.
Two stats, one for pitchers and one for hitters, do that best I feel. First, we start on the mound. Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, tries to give an ERAish stat to a pitcher based on what he has the most control over - strikeouts, walks, homers, etc. - over hurting him because of his defense or whatever. FIP is exactly like ERA so a 3.00 FIP or lower is good and a 4.50 or higher FIP is not so good. For instance, Jorge Sosa's FIP in 2005 was 4.13, a good run and a half higher than his ERA, while his FIP last year with the Braves was around 5.83, pretty near his actual ERA of 5.46. Sosa was pitching lucky in 2005 but his numbers more accurately described his suckiness that year. For those scoring at home (congrats!), Sosa's ERA right now is 3.64. His FIP is 4.45. Will he put up lucky numbers again? Doubtful.
FIP can be used in direction relation with ERA, showing its best value. A negative number leads to one calling that pitcher "unlucky" while a positive number leads you to call that pitcher "lucky." Using a half-run either way as random ups and downs in the data, here are the lucky pitchers and unlucky pitchers.
| Name | FIP | ERA | FIP-ERA |
| Chad Paronto | 4.74 | 8.16 | -3.42 |
| Tyler Yates | 2.59 | 4.13 | -1.53 |
Yeah, that's about it. Two unlucky pitchers. Mark Redman's also on this list, but being how he's not a Brave anymore, I just don't care to mention the Indian more than I have to. He did just sign with the Texas Rangers proving that in the 21st century, cowboys and indians do get along.
On one side, Tyler Yates unluckiness is a bit overstated. His expected FIP is 3.49 so he's probably not mentioning up to that 2.59 FIP, but his ERA is more telling of how useless it is to look much at a reliever's ERA and draw anything from it. On the other hand, Paronto has been "unlucky" but still pretty bad.
How scary is this? Well, if those are your only two unlucky pitchers, how many lucky pitchers are we throwing out there? Well, a great bulk of players fall in the half-run higher or lower catagory, including: Kyle Davies, Oscar Villarreal, Rafael Soriano, Chuck James, Tim Hudson, and Bob Wickman. So really, what you get from those guys is pretty clear. That leaves three more players to mention. I am leaving out McBride (a fourth lucky pitcher) because of his lack of innings.
| Name | FIP | ERA | FIP-ERA |
| John Smoltz | 3.22 | 2.82 | 0.64 |
| Mike Gonzalez | 3.02 | 1.59 | 1.43 |
| Peter Moylan | 4.47 | 2.25 | 2.22 |
Smoltzie is still pretty hot so that's not much of a worry. Gonzo's ERA just needed to even out from its way too low number. On the other hand, Moylan's number is pretty telling. His number basically finds its origins in his LOB%, the same number that helped Sosa put up a sub 3.00 ERA. 85.6% of baserunners to reach against Moylan were left on base. He may be able to continue that, but it's doubtful. Eventually, runs start to score.
On the flipside and the focus of a future column...PrOPS or predicted OPS. Look for it during the week.
Friday, May 25, 2007
Gonzo Sneering His Way to DL
Mike Gonzalez, acquired in the offseason from the Pittsburgh Pirates, will be out for the next 12-14 months after being forced to have Tommy John surgery. A third MRI finally showed an incomplete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament. Gonzo looked inconsistent during the year, but once he started to let go, he was dominating. However, he was forced to leave his most recent game and was immediately DL'd.
This injury may cause the Braves to make a move...but do they really need to? The previous numbers I posted show that Tyler Yates has been a star so far. Peter Moylan is not liked by the stats, but I think the Aussie has some real talent.
We can't discount what Joey Devine can do, though I probably would not concentrate too much on him. Another name thrown around is Will Startup, who is a lefty, but Startup just does not impress me much. He's never really looked that good at Richmond, where there are many veteran hitters who force you to throw strikes. Rheal Cormier is probably in the mix as well. In three games with Richmond, he has been stretched out to 5.1 ING and hasn't looked too bad. Manny Acosta has been the closer with Richmond and has a 1.38 ERA, but the number of walks (14 in 26 innings) is pretty high.
All in all...not the best news. I'll probably look back at the deal in my next Raw Numbers or a later post here.
This injury may cause the Braves to make a move...but do they really need to? The previous numbers I posted show that Tyler Yates has been a star so far. Peter Moylan is not liked by the stats, but I think the Aussie has some real talent.
We can't discount what Joey Devine can do, though I probably would not concentrate too much on him. Another name thrown around is Will Startup, who is a lefty, but Startup just does not impress me much. He's never really looked that good at Richmond, where there are many veteran hitters who force you to throw strikes. Rheal Cormier is probably in the mix as well. In three games with Richmond, he has been stretched out to 5.1 ING and hasn't looked too bad. Manny Acosta has been the closer with Richmond and has a 1.38 ERA, but the number of walks (14 in 26 innings) is pretty high.
All in all...not the best news. I'll probably look back at the deal in my next Raw Numbers or a later post here.
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