Forty-two games into the season, the Braves inability to go one way or another has forced me to ask many questions. And in a true sign of ego, I will also answer them.
1. Are the Braves a .500 team?
Atlanta seems incapable of getting a run and staying above .500. A five-game win streak got them to 10-9, they lost two straight. Got back to 12-11, lost four straight. Followed that with another five game win streak to get to 18-15, lost three straight, and have been alternating wins and loses since to come into Sunday at 21-21.
Now, most will point two the road record (6-16), but I think that is misleading. They have only allowed seven more runs on the road than they've scored so that record should not be that bad. Then there is the 2-12 one-run record. I feel one-run records can be a sign that the bullpen hasn't been keeping leads, but its hard to really get much out of the record beyond that and there are better ways of seeing how effective the bullpen has been at keeping leads.
I think right now...the Braves are merely a .500 team for a few reasons. The starting pitching has yet to show up beyond Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Tom Glavine has had a few games and a few bad ones so in truth, that is what the Braves had to expect from him. That is why they needed three reliable pitchers _and_ Glav. They do not have that. Jo-Jo Reyes has shown a bit more control than he did last year with just five walks in three games, but he has been far too hittable. Chuck James was horrible and demoted. Jeff Bennett retakes his place and in Bennett's defense, he never lost a spot in the staff. His three starts aren't that bad (0-1, 3.07 ERA)
And then, there is the bullpen. In the late innings, this pen is really at a disadvantage. Manny Acosta simply isn't that good. Blaine Boyer's arm will likely self-destruct if he doesn't get a few days off. Royce Ring has sorta done his job. He somehow has been recorded as pitching seven innings...in 17 games. Will Ohman's WHIP is scary, but the results haven't been. However, there is no Rafael Soriano, no Mike Gonzalez, not even a John Smoltz just yet. Phil Stockman will hopefully add something solid.
In the lineup, four players are getting it done, four are not. That sets you up for a lot of innings where rallies get started, but not finished. Chipper Jones is obviously incredible and Yunel Escobar, Mark Kotsay, and Brian McCann have followed suit. But the Braves need, absolutely need, better production from Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur. The LF platoon of Matt Diaz/Gregor Blanco isn't too bad, but one can't hit for power and the other can't get on base.
The lineup is the easiest to fix. You just have to believe that players will perform up to their reasonable expectations. But the pitching will need work and improved health, especially in the pen. I am still convinced that if the Braves want to compete for a spot in October, they need a starter to step behind Hudson and Jurrjens.
2. Will Chipper hit .400?
Simple answer, no. But he will win his first batting title this year and if the Braves can somehow get into the playoffs, will be in line for his second MVP. Chipper is locked in like I have never seen him. If he can stay healthy and play 145 games, I have to believe that he can definitely hit above .350, which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself. In the last five years, five players have managed that feat (Ichiro twice).
3. Are the Braves better with KJ and Kotsay switching spots?
Stagnant, not better. While Kots is outproducing KJ so far, KJ remains the better offensive talent and while Bobby Cox never seems to agree, the better player to receive more at-bats. You organize your batting lineup to get your best offensive players the most at-bats. Hence why the top five players should include KJ, Yunie, Chipper, Teix, and McCann. Maybe if it's a lefty on the mound, I could see dropping McCann and hitting Francoeur fifth.
4. Finally, will Mike Hampton finally help the Braves win games this year?
Yes.
By not pitching them.
Showing posts with label Kotsay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kotsay. Show all posts
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Early May Report
The Braves continue to drift along, a game under .500, and without much (get ready, Joe Morgan) consistency. However, when you look at the injuries, poor play, and lack of real definitions in the bullpen, the fact that the Braves aren't four or five games under .500 is a damn accomplishment.
Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.
The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.
The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.
Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.
-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.
-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.
-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.
-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.
-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.
-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.
-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.
-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.
Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.
The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.
The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.
Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.
-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.
-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.
-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.
-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.
-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.
-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.
-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.
-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
While it hovers over 30 here, people are playing baseball there
-Been a cold week at times for us Virginians, but alas, no one cares. Not even the weather Gods, who chose to surround Virginia with wintery mix, but never actually enter Virginia to give us some. Bastards.
-The Hattisburg American out of Hattisburg, Miss. is ready to call the NL East for the Braves. Jason Munz writes, "Braves over the Detroit Tigers in the 2008 World Series in six games." This is problematic because Munz, while he does write about the Braves to some degree, doesn't actually indicate the x-factor, the je ne sais quo that gets them over the hump. Just says there are reasons to be optimistic because the Braves have brought older people back. He does talk up Glav, but man, when did the quality start ever become some big number? This is monster cherrypicking in my opinion. A quality start is defined as six innings and three or less earned runs. This is nice, but it's hardly that noteworthy.
-McCann gets the DOB treatment with an article that while promising, seems to be regurgitated from last year. A year ago, the buzz was that despite such a huge year in 2006, McCann wanted to be a more complete player in 2007. I hope to see it this year and focusing on his diet/exercising might be a first step to getting better. To me, he just needs to work on his footwork.
-Speaking of Braves catchers, here is DOB again with an article on the faux battle for the backup catcher. This idea is to use Javy as a pinch hitter and Diaz as the emergency catcher. Now...that's going to be fun. I think as long as Javy stays healthy and doesn't completely suckass, he has the job. That's not a competition, though.
-THE MOST PROMISING part of the article was that Bobby said this. "Either way you go with the first two guys, it doesn't matter, with Kelly and Escobar." Aww, I love you again, Bobby. And shut up, Chipper. Mark Kotsay shouldn't be hitting second. You are a terrible manager!
-By the way, Chipper's mouth was yapping about the proposed two-horse race in the NL East. However, according to Chipper, the problem the last two years hasn't been pitching, Andruw Jones, or anything close. It's the fact that the Braves young guys don't have a "killer instinct." See, whereas Chipper's KI is worthy of a Hall of Fame induction, Francoeur and McCann just don't have enough KI to get the team to the next plateau. Kelly does, but he's Texan and its expected. Moylan doesn't because Aussies are not a war-loving people. Maybe Chipper should strap them down like they did that monkey in 28 Days Later and show footage of teams with lots of killer instinct until they are infected with enough KI to start a dynasty.
-Elsewhere, it seems the Braves are becoming the critics choice to be the NL East spoiler. In Macon, they also talk up how forgotten the Braves are, despite the fact they have been there the last two years and still retain beaucoups of hitting talent, not to mention a good pitching core that can compete with the better staffs in the NL.
-Speaking of pitchers...Matt DeSalvo is already impressing Bobby. You know Bobby...he absolutely loves those all-guts, no stuff pitchers. Jair Jurrjens is also getting a bit of play. First, the fantasy sports blog SportsJudge has a bit on Jurrjens being a bigger prospect than many might believe. I think that's accurate. His minor league numbers seem to give me the idea that he'll be a productive pitcher over the next dozen or so years. I don't think he will be dominating, but much like good pitchers, he'll be productive. Also on Jurrjens, here is a bit on him getting a shot with his favorite team. I didn't know he was from Curacao.
-If you need yet more info on Jordan Schafer, here you go. I really think he's getting blown up a bit too much, but maybe that's me desperately trying to keep my expectations low.
-Oh, the Braves East (Nats) signed Odalis Perez, who I believe becomes the first to complete the triangle with playing with the Braves, Braves West (Dodgers), and now Braves East. Congrats Odalis.
-The Hattisburg American out of Hattisburg, Miss. is ready to call the NL East for the Braves. Jason Munz writes, "Braves over the Detroit Tigers in the 2008 World Series in six games." This is problematic because Munz, while he does write about the Braves to some degree, doesn't actually indicate the x-factor, the je ne sais quo that gets them over the hump. Just says there are reasons to be optimistic because the Braves have brought older people back. He does talk up Glav, but man, when did the quality start ever become some big number? This is monster cherrypicking in my opinion. A quality start is defined as six innings and three or less earned runs. This is nice, but it's hardly that noteworthy.
-McCann gets the DOB treatment with an article that while promising, seems to be regurgitated from last year. A year ago, the buzz was that despite such a huge year in 2006, McCann wanted to be a more complete player in 2007. I hope to see it this year and focusing on his diet/exercising might be a first step to getting better. To me, he just needs to work on his footwork.
-Speaking of Braves catchers, here is DOB again with an article on the faux battle for the backup catcher. This idea is to use Javy as a pinch hitter and Diaz as the emergency catcher. Now...that's going to be fun. I think as long as Javy stays healthy and doesn't completely suckass, he has the job. That's not a competition, though.
-THE MOST PROMISING part of the article was that Bobby said this. "Either way you go with the first two guys, it doesn't matter, with Kelly and Escobar." Aww, I love you again, Bobby. And shut up, Chipper. Mark Kotsay shouldn't be hitting second. You are a terrible manager!
-By the way, Chipper's mouth was yapping about the proposed two-horse race in the NL East. However, according to Chipper, the problem the last two years hasn't been pitching, Andruw Jones, or anything close. It's the fact that the Braves young guys don't have a "killer instinct." See, whereas Chipper's KI is worthy of a Hall of Fame induction, Francoeur and McCann just don't have enough KI to get the team to the next plateau. Kelly does, but he's Texan and its expected. Moylan doesn't because Aussies are not a war-loving people. Maybe Chipper should strap them down like they did that monkey in 28 Days Later and show footage of teams with lots of killer instinct until they are infected with enough KI to start a dynasty.
-Elsewhere, it seems the Braves are becoming the critics choice to be the NL East spoiler. In Macon, they also talk up how forgotten the Braves are, despite the fact they have been there the last two years and still retain beaucoups of hitting talent, not to mention a good pitching core that can compete with the better staffs in the NL.
-Speaking of pitchers...Matt DeSalvo is already impressing Bobby. You know Bobby...he absolutely loves those all-guts, no stuff pitchers. Jair Jurrjens is also getting a bit of play. First, the fantasy sports blog SportsJudge has a bit on Jurrjens being a bigger prospect than many might believe. I think that's accurate. His minor league numbers seem to give me the idea that he'll be a productive pitcher over the next dozen or so years. I don't think he will be dominating, but much like good pitchers, he'll be productive. Also on Jurrjens, here is a bit on him getting a shot with his favorite team. I didn't know he was from Curacao.
-If you need yet more info on Jordan Schafer, here you go. I really think he's getting blown up a bit too much, but maybe that's me desperately trying to keep my expectations low.
-Oh, the Braves East (Nats) signed Odalis Perez, who I believe becomes the first to complete the triangle with playing with the Braves, Braves West (Dodgers), and now Braves East. Congrats Odalis.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Busy week, ya know?
Baseball is finally getting fun again.
-Spring training previews are up and running. The Sports Network actually considers Chris Resop an addition to talk about. That's scary. Basic premise - Braves will improve this year because of the acquisitions of old Braves. Not that abnormal, I suppose.
-Elsewhere, Dugout Central has their very own preview. Much more informative and includes the very fun "The aforementioned Jurrjens could be getting starts as early as May, or whenever the annual Mike Hampton injury occurs." I'm glad we got such a joke as a starter. I think it's very fair to say that the Braves are, yes, headed in the right direction, but this might not be their year. Still not convinced that this staff is as deep and talented as people might think.
-Spring Training 08 has a theory that Matt DeSalvo is the best non-roster invitee to make an impact on the Braves. Consider the lists of NRI includes Javy Lopez, Jordan Schafer, and Brent Lillibridge, the choice of DeSalvo is a interesting one. I doubt he will get more than five innings myself.
-Here's a little didy about Josh Anderson. Is "didy" even a word? Not according to my spell check, but if it's not a word, than just what the fuck was John Cougar Mellencamp singing about? Didy isn't a word...ditty is, however. Learn something new every day.
-There's been a slew of Bobby Cox articles, mostly about his proposed retirement. Bowman and DOB both touch on it, so really, it's just one brain. I frankly think this is it and everyone is kinda in on it. There's that, "win one more for the Coxer" feeling to this season with Glav and Javy back in the fold. My sources tell me Sid Bream is coming out of retirement to compete with Thor for the backup first base job.
-DOB's article also said the Braves have brought back Damian Moss. You know he just wants to attach himself to Glav's hand again.
-Jayson Stark gave Glav his own article, too. A lot of people can't stand Stark, but I think he's merely a pompous ass and as one myself, I see a lot of pluses in that. But what the hell is up with that pic? It scares me.
Thing is...all the words in the world are worthless if Glav can't turn a few things on its head. He needs to prove that he do basically what he did two years ago. Drastically improve his K/9. Last year, it was 3.9. There is no amount of "well, take out those last few starts" arguments that avoid one truth. Glav was lucky to be having a "good" year until September. His defensive ERA also ballooned.
His projections are not promising. The Bill James ones are always the most positive, but his Marcel is just not good enough. 4.50 ERA, less than 100 K's, less than 200 innings. These things will keep Glav from being significantly helpful to the Braves, especially in the way Stark projects.
-DOB also talks up the Glavine subject, but he provides some other nuggets on Jeff Bennett, Mark Kotsay, and Jeff Francoeur. Bennett must have Bobby's support because he keeps getting mentioned. I'm dieting too so maybe I can be the fifth or "sixth" starter as well. Francoeur is blowing up and Kotsay has a beard. Thanks for the big time insight, DOB.
-Um...go Braves?
-Spring training previews are up and running. The Sports Network actually considers Chris Resop an addition to talk about. That's scary. Basic premise - Braves will improve this year because of the acquisitions of old Braves. Not that abnormal, I suppose.
-Elsewhere, Dugout Central has their very own preview. Much more informative and includes the very fun "The aforementioned Jurrjens could be getting starts as early as May, or whenever the annual Mike Hampton injury occurs." I'm glad we got such a joke as a starter. I think it's very fair to say that the Braves are, yes, headed in the right direction, but this might not be their year. Still not convinced that this staff is as deep and talented as people might think.
-Spring Training 08 has a theory that Matt DeSalvo is the best non-roster invitee to make an impact on the Braves. Consider the lists of NRI includes Javy Lopez, Jordan Schafer, and Brent Lillibridge, the choice of DeSalvo is a interesting one. I doubt he will get more than five innings myself.
-Here's a little didy about Josh Anderson. Is "didy" even a word? Not according to my spell check, but if it's not a word, than just what the fuck was John Cougar Mellencamp singing about? Didy isn't a word...ditty is, however. Learn something new every day.
-There's been a slew of Bobby Cox articles, mostly about his proposed retirement. Bowman and DOB both touch on it, so really, it's just one brain. I frankly think this is it and everyone is kinda in on it. There's that, "win one more for the Coxer" feeling to this season with Glav and Javy back in the fold. My sources tell me Sid Bream is coming out of retirement to compete with Thor for the backup first base job.
-DOB's article also said the Braves have brought back Damian Moss. You know he just wants to attach himself to Glav's hand again.
-Jayson Stark gave Glav his own article, too. A lot of people can't stand Stark, but I think he's merely a pompous ass and as one myself, I see a lot of pluses in that. But what the hell is up with that pic? It scares me.
Thing is...all the words in the world are worthless if Glav can't turn a few things on its head. He needs to prove that he do basically what he did two years ago. Drastically improve his K/9. Last year, it was 3.9. There is no amount of "well, take out those last few starts" arguments that avoid one truth. Glav was lucky to be having a "good" year until September. His defensive ERA also ballooned.
His projections are not promising. The Bill James ones are always the most positive, but his Marcel is just not good enough. 4.50 ERA, less than 100 K's, less than 200 innings. These things will keep Glav from being significantly helpful to the Braves, especially in the way Stark projects.
-DOB also talks up the Glavine subject, but he provides some other nuggets on Jeff Bennett, Mark Kotsay, and Jeff Francoeur. Bennett must have Bobby's support because he keeps getting mentioned. I'm dieting too so maybe I can be the fifth or "sixth" starter as well. Francoeur is blowing up and Kotsay has a beard. Thanks for the big time insight, DOB.
-Um...go Braves?
Saturday, January 19, 2008
O noes~!
Mac has already commented on this masterpiece of vomit-inducing literature, but I must comment as well.
Kotsay has spent a majority of his career hitting in either of the top two spots of the batting order, and this year should be no different.
Last year with a fairly bad A's offense, Kotsay started 21 games in the first two spots, 32 in the final three spots. I guess they knew not to just put Kotsay up there and hope for the best. Maybe Kotsay was hitting that high because he was producing. Maybe he should produce before he hits that high again. Or...ya know, whatever.
My early guess is that he'll man one of those two spots with Yunel Escobar and that Kelly Johnson will bat seventh or eighth.
I have a feeling I can beat Marky Mark in baseball strategy. I don't know why...
Some believe Escobar would be a solid run producer in the middle of the lineup. You can't argue that.
Who are these people? IsoP in the majors of .125, IsoP in the minors of .118. There, I just argued it.
But at the same time, you can't dispute the value he brought while hitting .351 with a .400 on-base percentage in 34 games as the leadoff hitter last year.
The Braves don't have the speed demon that teams like to put at the top of their lineup. But with Escobar and Kotsay, who owns a .337 career on-base percentage, they have two guys who can provide regular run-producing opportunities for Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira.
In the time that Kotsay has posted that .337 OBP, the leagues that he had played in posted a .333 OBP. So, essentially, you could put Mr. Dynamic and Joe Average ahead of Jones and Teix and they will have regular run-producing opportunities. Maybe by hitting a lot of solo homeruns...
Johnson produced a .372 on-base percentage in 76 games as the leadoff hitter last year and might have at least shared that role with Escobar if Kotsay hadn't arrived. But my guess is that the Braves will put him in the eighth spot with the hope that he'll get on base consistently and give pitchers numerous sacrifice opportunities.
Oh jeez, I can already see the Bobby Coxian slant in this. Hmm...we could score more runs by having people on for Jones and Teix OR we can hope that a pitcher sacrifices KJ to second with one or two outs to maximize scoring chances for Mr. Dynamic and Kotsay. Hmm, what should we do?
By the way, you put the guys in the top of the lineup who are the best at getting on because that means they will get more chances.
As long as his back remains healthy, I think Kotsay will bat second and Escobar will once again be given the chance to be the consistent catalyst that he was down the stretch last year.
And the Braves will be a middle-of-the-pack offensive team.
Kotsay has spent a majority of his career hitting in either of the top two spots of the batting order, and this year should be no different.
Last year with a fairly bad A's offense, Kotsay started 21 games in the first two spots, 32 in the final three spots. I guess they knew not to just put Kotsay up there and hope for the best. Maybe Kotsay was hitting that high because he was producing. Maybe he should produce before he hits that high again. Or...ya know, whatever.
My early guess is that he'll man one of those two spots with Yunel Escobar and that Kelly Johnson will bat seventh or eighth.
I have a feeling I can beat Marky Mark in baseball strategy. I don't know why...
Some believe Escobar would be a solid run producer in the middle of the lineup. You can't argue that.
Who are these people? IsoP in the majors of .125, IsoP in the minors of .118. There, I just argued it.
But at the same time, you can't dispute the value he brought while hitting .351 with a .400 on-base percentage in 34 games as the leadoff hitter last year.
The Braves don't have the speed demon that teams like to put at the top of their lineup. But with Escobar and Kotsay, who owns a .337 career on-base percentage, they have two guys who can provide regular run-producing opportunities for Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira.
In the time that Kotsay has posted that .337 OBP, the leagues that he had played in posted a .333 OBP. So, essentially, you could put Mr. Dynamic and Joe Average ahead of Jones and Teix and they will have regular run-producing opportunities. Maybe by hitting a lot of solo homeruns...
Johnson produced a .372 on-base percentage in 76 games as the leadoff hitter last year and might have at least shared that role with Escobar if Kotsay hadn't arrived. But my guess is that the Braves will put him in the eighth spot with the hope that he'll get on base consistently and give pitchers numerous sacrifice opportunities.
Oh jeez, I can already see the Bobby Coxian slant in this. Hmm...we could score more runs by having people on for Jones and Teix OR we can hope that a pitcher sacrifices KJ to second with one or two outs to maximize scoring chances for Mr. Dynamic and Kotsay. Hmm, what should we do?
By the way, you put the guys in the top of the lineup who are the best at getting on because that means they will get more chances.
As long as his back remains healthy, I think Kotsay will bat second and Escobar will once again be given the chance to be the consistent catalyst that he was down the stretch last year.
And the Braves will be a middle-of-the-pack offensive team.
Yikes
-Joey Devine was bad enough. A tough price to pay for a guy like Mark Kotsay, who may not even give you 130 games. But you know, to pay $2M for Kotsay, it wasn't that bad. But to add Jamie Richmond, my tenth ranked prospect, is just a horrible situation. It just makes me sad.
-Elsewhere, the Richmond Braves will be no more. A sad day for Virginia sports, but Richmond's inability to get something done was the main problem here. There was no reason that Richmond couldn't have put together a plan for a new stadium that, while used primarily for the R-Braves, could also host college baseball tournaments and state high school baseball games. In addition, it would have clearly attracted a AAA All-Star game. But no...dumbass Richmond at its finest.
-The Braves have signed all but one of their arbitration-eligible players and only one of those signed got more than I suggested, which kind of surprises me. Teix got $12.5M, Gonzo accepted a slight raise after his injury ($2,362,500), Infante signed for $1.4M, and Yatesy settled for $800K. Not in the article, but Matt Diaz also signed for $1.225M. That leaves Rafael Soriano, who wants $3.4M and the Braves basically lowballed him with a $2.4M offer. Will likely settle in the middle ($2.9M).
-Wren made another curious move, sending Willy Aybar _and_ Chase Fontaine for Jeff Ridgway. I won't miss Aybar. I think he has a lot of potential, but after last season, a new city and new team could be of great use for him. But why now? Why include another guy who I included in my Top 30? And why settle for a non-prospect? Ridgway is a 27 year-old southpaw with three games of major league experience - all last year - in which he recorded one out and was charged with seven runs. For the math impaired, that's a 189.00 ERA. Yay.
This is the guy that cost two players? Ridgway might be a serviceable LOOGY, but wouldn't it have made more sense to, um, wait till spring training, see what Aybar could do, and then trade him? And why the hell did it also take Fontaine, who while a problem in the field with the glove, is a hitter? Seriously, I just don't understand this. Most will tell you...it's not a big deal. Losing these two have a minimal chance to hurt the Braves. But why sell low at any time?
-Finally, the trade of Aybar and the news that Omar Infante was hit by a pitch and might miss most, if not all of spring training, may open a spot on the bench for Brent Lillibridge. The way it's looking, if the Braves keep Thorman, something is really messed up since they couldn't have been bothered to find a spot for Aybar.
-Oh wells. Time to start a meet and greet with Ridgway.
-Elsewhere, the Richmond Braves will be no more. A sad day for Virginia sports, but Richmond's inability to get something done was the main problem here. There was no reason that Richmond couldn't have put together a plan for a new stadium that, while used primarily for the R-Braves, could also host college baseball tournaments and state high school baseball games. In addition, it would have clearly attracted a AAA All-Star game. But no...dumbass Richmond at its finest.
-The Braves have signed all but one of their arbitration-eligible players and only one of those signed got more than I suggested, which kind of surprises me. Teix got $12.5M, Gonzo accepted a slight raise after his injury ($2,362,500), Infante signed for $1.4M, and Yatesy settled for $800K. Not in the article, but Matt Diaz also signed for $1.225M. That leaves Rafael Soriano, who wants $3.4M and the Braves basically lowballed him with a $2.4M offer. Will likely settle in the middle ($2.9M).
-Wren made another curious move, sending Willy Aybar _and_ Chase Fontaine for Jeff Ridgway. I won't miss Aybar. I think he has a lot of potential, but after last season, a new city and new team could be of great use for him. But why now? Why include another guy who I included in my Top 30? And why settle for a non-prospect? Ridgway is a 27 year-old southpaw with three games of major league experience - all last year - in which he recorded one out and was charged with seven runs. For the math impaired, that's a 189.00 ERA. Yay.
This is the guy that cost two players? Ridgway might be a serviceable LOOGY, but wouldn't it have made more sense to, um, wait till spring training, see what Aybar could do, and then trade him? And why the hell did it also take Fontaine, who while a problem in the field with the glove, is a hitter? Seriously, I just don't understand this. Most will tell you...it's not a big deal. Losing these two have a minimal chance to hurt the Braves. But why sell low at any time?
-Finally, the trade of Aybar and the news that Omar Infante was hit by a pitch and might miss most, if not all of spring training, may open a spot on the bench for Brent Lillibridge. The way it's looking, if the Braves keep Thorman, something is really messed up since they couldn't have been bothered to find a spot for Aybar.
-Oh wells. Time to start a meet and greet with Ridgway.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Ohhhhh, shitsticks!
According to...well, a multitude of sources, but let's just say...according to ESPN, the Braves are going to deal Joey Devine to the Oakland A's for Mark Kotsay and $5.325 million of the $8 million Kotsay is owed next year.
Now, here's the thing.
Mark Kotsay isn't that bad. He's not that good, but he's not that bad. He's so-so. In a Family Guy nutshell, Kotsay is best compared to purgatory. He could put some league average numbers, lately he hasn't. He used to be a solid defender, lately he hasn't been.
Kotsay is not wanted by other teams. Why would they bother, ya know? Most teams have center fielders by now.
So why the, and forgive me for saying, why the fuck would the Braves trade Joey Devine for Mark Kotsay?
Oh, the money yes. And maybe the Braves think Devine won't be ready to a major league contributor this season and he's out of options. But still...that's pretty weak reasoning.
Thanks Atlanta.
Now I gotta wish Jordan Schaffer gets good real quick.
Now, here's the thing.
Mark Kotsay isn't that bad. He's not that good, but he's not that bad. He's so-so. In a Family Guy nutshell, Kotsay is best compared to purgatory. He could put some league average numbers, lately he hasn't. He used to be a solid defender, lately he hasn't been.
Kotsay is not wanted by other teams. Why would they bother, ya know? Most teams have center fielders by now.
So why the, and forgive me for saying, why the fuck would the Braves trade Joey Devine for Mark Kotsay?
Oh, the money yes. And maybe the Braves think Devine won't be ready to a major league contributor this season and he's out of options. But still...that's pretty weak reasoning.
Thanks Atlanta.
Now I gotta wish Jordan Schaffer gets good real quick.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Mark Kotsay More and More Likely
According to DOB, it's nearly a done deal. DOB says he just talked to Kotsay and there will be an MRI and all that, but it looks like a mid-level prospect and the A's picking up a bunch of the check.
Liking it, Frank. Liking it.
(hattip to Bravestud at Chopnation for the link)
1:10 AM Update: The Braves official forum seems concerned it will be Joey Devine. I personally doubt it. I am thinking more along the lines of the players I included in the 21-30 top prospects. Gregor Blanco could be interesting to Billy Beane, but I think it will be J.C. Cuevas or Charlie Morton. Possibly Zach Schreiber or Moises Hernandez.
Another name I've read...Brent Lillibridge.
Ha.
Liking it, Frank. Liking it.
(hattip to Bravestud at Chopnation for the link)
1:10 AM Update: The Braves official forum seems concerned it will be Joey Devine. I personally doubt it. I am thinking more along the lines of the players I included in the 21-30 top prospects. Gregor Blanco could be interesting to Billy Beane, but I think it will be J.C. Cuevas or Charlie Morton. Possibly Zach Schreiber or Moises Hernandez.
Another name I've read...Brent Lillibridge.
Ha.
CF and other stuff
-Happy Friday to ya. Since Andruw Jones left, center field has remained a big question mark. Well, according to DOB, the Braves are possibly considering Mark Kotsay and Corey Patterson. I have spoke on Patterson often because I can't possibly fathom why people continue to talk him up when his career OBP is under .300. Not a typo, kids. Kotsay, on the other hand, is a perfect addition on paper. You look at what he brings to the table and while it won't aw you, it certainly will be productive.
.282/.337/.415 career, .264 career EQA, formally an above average CF.
The last three years have been trying for Kotsay, but he is obviously the best player for what he brings, for how long the Braves need to commit, and money invested (surely Oaktown would pick up half of the check or sent a grade B prospect to give the Braves some kind of compensation for Kotsay's salary). I am not saying I would do it...but dammit, I'm considering it.
-MLB Trade Rumors talks up Mike Cameron to the Braves. As I have said, I am back-and-forth on Cameron. He's not as bad as some make him, not as good as others make him. But he truly is a poor man's Andruw who is faster on the basepaths. Not a terrible direction to go. He also as a suspension over his head. Eiii...
-A couple of 2006 Braves signed new contracts. Marcus Giles, who spent last year with the Pads, signed with the Rockies for a measly minor league contract and spring training invite. Braves fans have spoke of Giles often with the steroid label. I think it is probably accurate, though he was one of my favorite Braves. It's pretty sad how his career has tapered off despite the fact he is just 29. Elsewhere, Chris Reitsma reups with the Mariners. Here's hoping he has success.
-Sean Livingstone of the USA Today penned a organizational report. There is literally nothing in this report that is all that interesting. But read it if you want a cheat sheet on everything you already know.
.282/.337/.415 career, .264 career EQA, formally an above average CF.
The last three years have been trying for Kotsay, but he is obviously the best player for what he brings, for how long the Braves need to commit, and money invested (surely Oaktown would pick up half of the check or sent a grade B prospect to give the Braves some kind of compensation for Kotsay's salary). I am not saying I would do it...but dammit, I'm considering it.
-MLB Trade Rumors talks up Mike Cameron to the Braves. As I have said, I am back-and-forth on Cameron. He's not as bad as some make him, not as good as others make him. But he truly is a poor man's Andruw who is faster on the basepaths. Not a terrible direction to go. He also as a suspension over his head. Eiii...
-A couple of 2006 Braves signed new contracts. Marcus Giles, who spent last year with the Pads, signed with the Rockies for a measly minor league contract and spring training invite. Braves fans have spoke of Giles often with the steroid label. I think it is probably accurate, though he was one of my favorite Braves. It's pretty sad how his career has tapered off despite the fact he is just 29. Elsewhere, Chris Reitsma reups with the Mariners. Here's hoping he has success.
-Sean Livingstone of the USA Today penned a organizational report. There is literally nothing in this report that is all that interesting. But read it if you want a cheat sheet on everything you already know.
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