Atlanta Magazine has an article out on the subject of John Smoltz.
“I say this for the first time, without reservation, if I’m going to bust my butt and if I feel like I’m good enough and it doesn’t work out here, I will be pitching somewhere else … My dream scenario would be to pitch in the playoffs again, and that’s coming from a guy who’s been in 13 of them. (Smoltz missed the 2000 playoffs with Tommy John surgery.) To me, that’s what I’m about. So if the door gets closed here, it’ll have to be explored somewhere else.”
Simple. To the point. If the Braves don't want him back, Smoltz will find some team that wants 41 year-old who last year struck out 197 and posted a 1.18 WHIP. He also has 3011 lifetime strikeouts. Suffice it to say, he is pretty good.
“Make no mistake,” he said a few minutes later. “I am absolutely, 100 percent committed to playing the rest of my career for the Atlanta Braves. But this can’t be my only option … I may not be in the [Braves’] plans. It’s no given right, where I’ve spent 21 years here and [so] they owe me whatever I want.”
The author does a poor idea of explaining that last sentence. To me, he is saying that the Braves do not owe him and there would be no hard feelings if they do not have him in their plans. I think that is sensible enough.
To me, Smoltz is just trying to put a little pressure on the Braves. Make a quick decision where he stands so he can open discussions elsewhere.
I hope he comes back. The Braves simply have no one better. But if the Braves are going to embrace a rebuild year where they are without Tim Hudson most of the season, it would be best to allow Smoltz to move on. It's a tough decision.
Showing posts with label Smoltz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Smoltz. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Sunday, May 11, 2008
The Right Man for the Job?
After last season ended, the lack of reliable starting pitching came to the forefront as a serious problem for the Atlanta Braves. The rotation last year combined for a 4.45 ERA and once you take out the two aces (John Smoltz and Tim Hudson), the staff managed just 5.1 ING per start. The bullpen, the focus of the previous offseason, stood up admirably well, posting a top notch 3.54 ERA despite three pitchers getting into 70 games.
Frank Wren's first offseason was spent scouring the league in search for starting pitching. He traded for the tremendously talented but raw Jair Jurrjens and signed the former Brave Tom Glavine. Despite the fact that he was relying so much on Smoltz and Glavine and their combined 83 birthday celebrations, the staff was supposed to be competitive starting crew with returnees Hudson, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Buddy Carlyle, and - of course - Mike Hampton.
Through one-plus months of ball, we know these sure things.
-John Smoltz is hurt, probably not going to start another game this year.
-Jair Jurrjens is the real deal, one of the game's most promising pitchers.
-Mike Hampton is hurt. Again.
With Hudson and Jurrjens, the Braves have two very good starters who give the Braves a chance to win each game. Glavine has been decent and basically giving the Braves what I felt he was capable of. Decent effort, nothing more. Essentially, an overpaid Chuck James without James' penchant for giving up homers. Speaking of James, there has been little progression in the numbers for him or Reyes.
Without Smoltz, this staff looks pretty weak. It is time to move on to more options.
Possibly the quickest fix is Greg Maddux. Now, I am not a sentimental guy. The Big Three getting together for one last run with Uncle Bobby and Cousin Chip means little to me. What does interest me is Maddux's impact on the team.
While much was made of Maddux's inability to win 350 in a timely matter, the numbers show that Maddux has been as good as anyone the Braves can realistically target. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a number that shows a pitcher's true ERA, sits at 3.74. He would fit nicely behind Hudson and Jurrjens and provide some insurance if Jurrjens fails to keep up his high level through the dog days of summer.
Maddux also averages around six innings a start. If Glavine can do the same, it would give you two inning-eaters. Both pitchers would provide another year of learning for Jo-Jo Reyes, who can be left at Richmond barring injury.
Getting Maddux might be complicated. He will be paid $10M this year and has a no-trade clause. However, it would be a good bet to say that Maddux would waive it to get out of the San Diego sinking ship and go to a team like Atlanta. He would be comfortable here, pitching in a stadium he won many games with teammates he is used to.
The time to start talking to the Padres is now. The quicker this deal is done, the easier it will be to acquire Maddux. The last thing you want is a bidding war in July. The Padres don't seem to be going anywhere and have shown in recent days that they are willing to move in another direction.
Bring back Mad Dog.
The offense will come together. There are just too many good hitters for it not to. Add Maddux to the staff and whatever help Smoltz, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano give to the bullpen and the Braves suddenly look like true blue contenders.
(Idea inspired by this post at chopnation.
Frank Wren's first offseason was spent scouring the league in search for starting pitching. He traded for the tremendously talented but raw Jair Jurrjens and signed the former Brave Tom Glavine. Despite the fact that he was relying so much on Smoltz and Glavine and their combined 83 birthday celebrations, the staff was supposed to be competitive starting crew with returnees Hudson, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Buddy Carlyle, and - of course - Mike Hampton.
Through one-plus months of ball, we know these sure things.
-John Smoltz is hurt, probably not going to start another game this year.
-Jair Jurrjens is the real deal, one of the game's most promising pitchers.
-Mike Hampton is hurt. Again.
With Hudson and Jurrjens, the Braves have two very good starters who give the Braves a chance to win each game. Glavine has been decent and basically giving the Braves what I felt he was capable of. Decent effort, nothing more. Essentially, an overpaid Chuck James without James' penchant for giving up homers. Speaking of James, there has been little progression in the numbers for him or Reyes.
Without Smoltz, this staff looks pretty weak. It is time to move on to more options.
Possibly the quickest fix is Greg Maddux. Now, I am not a sentimental guy. The Big Three getting together for one last run with Uncle Bobby and Cousin Chip means little to me. What does interest me is Maddux's impact on the team.
While much was made of Maddux's inability to win 350 in a timely matter, the numbers show that Maddux has been as good as anyone the Braves can realistically target. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a number that shows a pitcher's true ERA, sits at 3.74. He would fit nicely behind Hudson and Jurrjens and provide some insurance if Jurrjens fails to keep up his high level through the dog days of summer.
Maddux also averages around six innings a start. If Glavine can do the same, it would give you two inning-eaters. Both pitchers would provide another year of learning for Jo-Jo Reyes, who can be left at Richmond barring injury.
Getting Maddux might be complicated. He will be paid $10M this year and has a no-trade clause. However, it would be a good bet to say that Maddux would waive it to get out of the San Diego sinking ship and go to a team like Atlanta. He would be comfortable here, pitching in a stadium he won many games with teammates he is used to.
The time to start talking to the Padres is now. The quicker this deal is done, the easier it will be to acquire Maddux. The last thing you want is a bidding war in July. The Padres don't seem to be going anywhere and have shown in recent days that they are willing to move in another direction.
Bring back Mad Dog.
The offense will come together. There are just too many good hitters for it not to. Add Maddux to the staff and whatever help Smoltz, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano give to the bullpen and the Braves suddenly look like true blue contenders.
(Idea inspired by this post at chopnation.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Smoltz...and Bonds!
Dugout Central chimes in with this column.
Last season Smoltz threw the second-most innings on the staff – about a seventh of their total innings. The team finished with the third-lowest ERA and the sixth-fewest runs allowed. Last season they probably didn’t have anyone capable of doing what Jair Jurrjens could do this season, and their pitching staff wasn’t as deep. It’s still hard to see this year’s pitching staff being significantly better than last seasons’. The Smoltz injury and subsequent move to the bullpen costs the Braves a lot of great innings.
It is a valid point. Without Smoltz in the rotation, someone has to pitch the other 170ish innings that coming into the season, Smoltz was relied on to pitch. That is a hell of a lot of innings to go. While I can agree with the comment at the bottom and having Smoltz for 40-60 more innings is better than zero innings, it does hurt this staff tremendously, turning what many called a deep staff into a thin one.
You can replace Mike Hampton. You can't replace John Smoltz.
To make the playoffs, they’ll need their offense to continue to be as good as expected. They’ll also need Tim Hudson to step up and Jurrjens to continue to pitch well. One more above average starter would also help. You can bet GM Frank Wren is working the phones looking for anyone willing to give up any decent starter to provide the Braves some quality innings. The challenge? What GM isn’t looking for the same?
Exactly. I did a little research last night for the kind of names the Braves might target (low cost, little investment in time) and came up with Odalis Perez, Livan Hernandez, and Shawn Chacon. Now, maybe the Braves want to put a big investment on the table...but it's going to cost them and I just don't think they are comfortable making their second straight prospect dump like they did with Teix.
Elsewhere, the MLBPA doesn't have enough to do is questioning why Barry Bonds is still a free agent and received no offers. At first glance, its easy to say "well, he has his legal troubles." Then maybe you can add that he's old and can't field worth a damn and always has had a girl's arm.
But it actually is a question worth asking. Last year, Bonds hit .276/.480/.565. There is not an AL team around that can't improve their DH numbers with Bonds?
Of course, he's a PR risk. And a clubhouse cancer. And he has small testicles after years of steroid abuse. But I gotta think the Orioles would have a better offense with Bonds.
Last season Smoltz threw the second-most innings on the staff – about a seventh of their total innings. The team finished with the third-lowest ERA and the sixth-fewest runs allowed. Last season they probably didn’t have anyone capable of doing what Jair Jurrjens could do this season, and their pitching staff wasn’t as deep. It’s still hard to see this year’s pitching staff being significantly better than last seasons’. The Smoltz injury and subsequent move to the bullpen costs the Braves a lot of great innings.
It is a valid point. Without Smoltz in the rotation, someone has to pitch the other 170ish innings that coming into the season, Smoltz was relied on to pitch. That is a hell of a lot of innings to go. While I can agree with the comment at the bottom and having Smoltz for 40-60 more innings is better than zero innings, it does hurt this staff tremendously, turning what many called a deep staff into a thin one.
You can replace Mike Hampton. You can't replace John Smoltz.
To make the playoffs, they’ll need their offense to continue to be as good as expected. They’ll also need Tim Hudson to step up and Jurrjens to continue to pitch well. One more above average starter would also help. You can bet GM Frank Wren is working the phones looking for anyone willing to give up any decent starter to provide the Braves some quality innings. The challenge? What GM isn’t looking for the same?
Exactly. I did a little research last night for the kind of names the Braves might target (low cost, little investment in time) and came up with Odalis Perez, Livan Hernandez, and Shawn Chacon. Now, maybe the Braves want to put a big investment on the table...but it's going to cost them and I just don't think they are comfortable making their second straight prospect dump like they did with Teix.
Elsewhere, the MLBPA doesn't have enough to do is questioning why Barry Bonds is still a free agent and received no offers. At first glance, its easy to say "well, he has his legal troubles." Then maybe you can add that he's old and can't field worth a damn and always has had a girl's arm.
But it actually is a question worth asking. Last year, Bonds hit .276/.480/.565. There is not an AL team around that can't improve their DH numbers with Bonds?
Of course, he's a PR risk. And a clubhouse cancer. And he has small testicles after years of steroid abuse. But I gotta think the Orioles would have a better offense with Bonds.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Early May Report
The Braves continue to drift along, a game under .500, and without much (get ready, Joe Morgan) consistency. However, when you look at the injuries, poor play, and lack of real definitions in the bullpen, the fact that the Braves aren't four or five games under .500 is a damn accomplishment.
Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.
The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.
The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.
Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.
-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.
-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.
-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.
-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.
-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.
-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.
-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.
-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.
Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.
The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.
The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.
Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.
-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.
-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.
-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.
-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.
-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.
-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.
-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.
-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Link for ya...
J.C. at Sabernomics always does a fantastic job and he pointed out some interesting numbers based on MPR, or margicial Revenue Product. I still need to sit down and understand this number thoroughly, but what I gather is it essentially looks at what a player should be making based on the market and his performance. Three Braves were ranked based on last year. No adjustments were made for position.
NL Cy Young
3. Tim Hudson, $15.22
5. John Smoltz, $13.73
NL MVP
5. Chipper Jones, $22.44
Still couldn't get to the playoffs...
NL Cy Young
3. Tim Hudson, $15.22
5. John Smoltz, $13.73
NL MVP
5. Chipper Jones, $22.44
Still couldn't get to the playoffs...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
A-Z Reviews: S
Jarrod Saltalamacchia-Salty was called up on May 2nd on his 22nd birthday and immediately performed at a high pace for the Braves, where he split time at catcher and first. His impact was not as high as it could have been because simply put, when you're the only backup catcher, the chances you could get hurt, thrown out of the game, etc. really keep you from playing time elsewhere. Nevertheless, Salty played like a talented rookie and hit .284/.333/.411 in 47 games with the Braves before the trade deadline deal with the Rangers saw him traded. How good he becomes and how long Mark Teixeira is a Brave will decide the winner of the deal. Salty showed a great arm behind the plate, but looked like a bad first baseman at first. Not that surprising considering he was playing it for the first time in games.
2008 Outlook: As a catcher, Salty is an explosive star of the future. Quick, name how many switch-hitting catchers can post .200 IsoSLG's routinely and display solid on-base skills. Jorge Posada. Victor Martinez. Yeah, that's about it. Now whether or not Salty can get to that level is unknown, but I actually think it is highly likely he will and will do so within two seasons. Now, if the Rangers decide to use him at first, his value is lowered. He will probably be a good first baseman, but a far cry from being a great catcher.
Clint Sammons-Sammons is best friends with Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann and got his shot late in the season after Corky Miller welcomed a new child and the Braves still had little confidence in Brayan Pena's catching abilities. He appeared in a pair of games, starting the finale of the season where he received his first three plate appearances of his major league career. He went 2 for 3 with a double. He's a fairly light-hitting catcher who has displayed solid on-base skills. Right now, he is probably the best catching prospect in the system.
2008 Outlook: Sammons struggled at Mississippi last year after handling Myrtle Beach with ease in his second tour with the Pelicans. After Salty's promotion, Sammons replaced him with the M-Braves and batted just .243 with 15 EBH in 83 games. Expect a return to Mississippi this year. He could battle for the backup catching spot with a great spring, but chances are better he will be working on getting to AAA first.
John Smoltz-Smoltzie tossed 200 innings for the third straight year despite the occasional health problem. He started off the year trying to throw less pitches, but once he realized that wasn't helping, went back to his strikeout self and recorded 197 of them and had his second best season as a starter in what baseballprospectus calls Stuff. All in all, it was a normal Smoltzie year in which he put up a 3.50 DERA (.09 less than his career average). He became the first person in baseball history to win 200 games and save 150 and with 25 K's, will hit the 3,000 K plateau. He turns 41 next May so how much the Braves can rely on him is questionable, but as he starts his third decade of major league ball (made his debut in '88), Smoltze is just now getting the praise he has deserved as maybe the second best starter of the Atlanta Braves era (behind Maddux, of course).
2008 Outlook: His age is going to be a problem because you can never know when the other shoe will fall and Smoltzie will take one bad pitch, or feel something starting to creep up on his right shoulder/elbow, or whatever and it's going to be time to shut it down for good. But as long as he is pitching, he will have a few downers where he just can't reach back and get his splitter working and a lot of solid games that he will give his team a favorable chance to win.
Rafael Soriano-Acquired for Horacio Ramirez in one of the most lopsided trades of the year, Soriano started off incredibly, struggled a little, and then finished up with insanely solid numbers yet again. What amazes me about Soriano is that in 72 innings, he allowed just 46 hits and 15 walks. The only thing that hurt him was the gopher ball. He allowed a career high 12 of them. I believe that was a little flukish, but power arms that get so many flyballs will give up homers. Nevertheless, he finished second on the team in saves with nine and after officially taking over the ninth inning again in September, was unhittable in that month. In 13 innings, he allowed four hits (including a solo homer), walked three (one intentional), and struck out 17. That included a three game suspension that MLB handed down for no real reason.
2008 Outlook: Soriano should be the "closer" heading into next season. There is no reason for him not to handle the roll. He may be even better in that role because he won't be brought into so many tie games or ones the Braves are losing by a run. He set career highs in G and ING last year, but may be better suited for the 55-60 game, 55-65 ING type year than the middle man.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Luck...and a little of bad luck
Somewhere, Billy Beane cringes a little each time "luck" is mentioned.
Sabermetrics has attempted for some time to quantify luck. Instead of simply saying Player A is hitting the ball well or just not seeing the ball, the numbers may show that one player is simply lucky or unlucky. It allows us a chance to prepare for a possible and pending evening out of a lucky player while staying upbeat about a struggling player.
A little sidenote, Hardball Times hasn't updated their numbers for yesterday's games so these numbers may be slightly off.
Two stats, one for pitchers and one for hitters, do that best I feel. First, we start on the mound. Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, tries to give an ERAish stat to a pitcher based on what he has the most control over - strikeouts, walks, homers, etc. - over hurting him because of his defense or whatever. FIP is exactly like ERA so a 3.00 FIP or lower is good and a 4.50 or higher FIP is not so good. For instance, Jorge Sosa's FIP in 2005 was 4.13, a good run and a half higher than his ERA, while his FIP last year with the Braves was around 5.83, pretty near his actual ERA of 5.46. Sosa was pitching lucky in 2005 but his numbers more accurately described his suckiness that year. For those scoring at home (congrats!), Sosa's ERA right now is 3.64. His FIP is 4.45. Will he put up lucky numbers again? Doubtful.
FIP can be used in direction relation with ERA, showing its best value. A negative number leads to one calling that pitcher "unlucky" while a positive number leads you to call that pitcher "lucky." Using a half-run either way as random ups and downs in the data, here are the lucky pitchers and unlucky pitchers.
Yeah, that's about it. Two unlucky pitchers. Mark Redman's also on this list, but being how he's not a Brave anymore, I just don't care to mention the Indian more than I have to. He did just sign with the Texas Rangers proving that in the 21st century, cowboys and indians do get along.
On one side, Tyler Yates unluckiness is a bit overstated. His expected FIP is 3.49 so he's probably not mentioning up to that 2.59 FIP, but his ERA is more telling of how useless it is to look much at a reliever's ERA and draw anything from it. On the other hand, Paronto has been "unlucky" but still pretty bad.
How scary is this? Well, if those are your only two unlucky pitchers, how many lucky pitchers are we throwing out there? Well, a great bulk of players fall in the half-run higher or lower catagory, including: Kyle Davies, Oscar Villarreal, Rafael Soriano, Chuck James, Tim Hudson, and Bob Wickman. So really, what you get from those guys is pretty clear. That leaves three more players to mention. I am leaving out McBride (a fourth lucky pitcher) because of his lack of innings.
Smoltzie is still pretty hot so that's not much of a worry. Gonzo's ERA just needed to even out from its way too low number. On the other hand, Moylan's number is pretty telling. His number basically finds its origins in his LOB%, the same number that helped Sosa put up a sub 3.00 ERA. 85.6% of baserunners to reach against Moylan were left on base. He may be able to continue that, but it's doubtful. Eventually, runs start to score.
On the flipside and the focus of a future column...PrOPS or predicted OPS. Look for it during the week.
Sabermetrics has attempted for some time to quantify luck. Instead of simply saying Player A is hitting the ball well or just not seeing the ball, the numbers may show that one player is simply lucky or unlucky. It allows us a chance to prepare for a possible and pending evening out of a lucky player while staying upbeat about a struggling player.
A little sidenote, Hardball Times hasn't updated their numbers for yesterday's games so these numbers may be slightly off.
Two stats, one for pitchers and one for hitters, do that best I feel. First, we start on the mound. Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, tries to give an ERAish stat to a pitcher based on what he has the most control over - strikeouts, walks, homers, etc. - over hurting him because of his defense or whatever. FIP is exactly like ERA so a 3.00 FIP or lower is good and a 4.50 or higher FIP is not so good. For instance, Jorge Sosa's FIP in 2005 was 4.13, a good run and a half higher than his ERA, while his FIP last year with the Braves was around 5.83, pretty near his actual ERA of 5.46. Sosa was pitching lucky in 2005 but his numbers more accurately described his suckiness that year. For those scoring at home (congrats!), Sosa's ERA right now is 3.64. His FIP is 4.45. Will he put up lucky numbers again? Doubtful.
FIP can be used in direction relation with ERA, showing its best value. A negative number leads to one calling that pitcher "unlucky" while a positive number leads you to call that pitcher "lucky." Using a half-run either way as random ups and downs in the data, here are the lucky pitchers and unlucky pitchers.
| Name | FIP | ERA | FIP-ERA |
| Chad Paronto | 4.74 | 8.16 | -3.42 |
| Tyler Yates | 2.59 | 4.13 | -1.53 |
Yeah, that's about it. Two unlucky pitchers. Mark Redman's also on this list, but being how he's not a Brave anymore, I just don't care to mention the Indian more than I have to. He did just sign with the Texas Rangers proving that in the 21st century, cowboys and indians do get along.
On one side, Tyler Yates unluckiness is a bit overstated. His expected FIP is 3.49 so he's probably not mentioning up to that 2.59 FIP, but his ERA is more telling of how useless it is to look much at a reliever's ERA and draw anything from it. On the other hand, Paronto has been "unlucky" but still pretty bad.
How scary is this? Well, if those are your only two unlucky pitchers, how many lucky pitchers are we throwing out there? Well, a great bulk of players fall in the half-run higher or lower catagory, including: Kyle Davies, Oscar Villarreal, Rafael Soriano, Chuck James, Tim Hudson, and Bob Wickman. So really, what you get from those guys is pretty clear. That leaves three more players to mention. I am leaving out McBride (a fourth lucky pitcher) because of his lack of innings.
| Name | FIP | ERA | FIP-ERA |
| John Smoltz | 3.22 | 2.82 | 0.64 |
| Mike Gonzalez | 3.02 | 1.59 | 1.43 |
| Peter Moylan | 4.47 | 2.25 | 2.22 |
Smoltzie is still pretty hot so that's not much of a worry. Gonzo's ERA just needed to even out from its way too low number. On the other hand, Moylan's number is pretty telling. His number basically finds its origins in his LOB%, the same number that helped Sosa put up a sub 3.00 ERA. 85.6% of baserunners to reach against Moylan were left on base. He may be able to continue that, but it's doubtful. Eventually, runs start to score.
On the flipside and the focus of a future column...PrOPS or predicted OPS. Look for it during the week.
Friday, May 18, 2007
AJC: We Like to Show We're Idiots
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution bugs me. Beyond Dave O'Brien's inability to make a convincing argument, his colleagues are just retarded.
The latest evidence comes in the form of Carroll Rogers. I am not sure whether Carroll is a woman or a guy with a girl's name, but he/she (maybe it is a transvestite?) wrote an article titled "Does Smoltz have Hall of Fame credentials?"
Does he?
Here is a pretty easy way to establish that. No player in the history of the game has saved 150 saves and won 200 games. Nobody. Dennis Eckersley came close and he seems pretty convinced that Smoltzie is a Hall of Famer.
Smoltz is also going to become the 16th player in history to strike out 3,000 batters. Of those who have, six players have not been elected to the Hall of Fame. Five are active and of those five, four are easily in the Hall (Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Pedro Martinez). Curt Schilling may also be in. The only retired player who is not in the Hall is Bert Blyleven. It is a great argument that he deserves election. The only thing hurting Bly is the fact he never won a Cy Young, nor was even a Cy Young runnerup and only got real love from the baseball writers in 1984. Still, Bly should be in the Hall, especially when the Hall in 2000 put Tony Perez in the Hall. Perez was a good player, but a Hall of Famer? Please.
So, Smoltz has the numbers. Does he have the other accolades? Well, he does have a Cy Young Award and has been to seven All-Star games. He has also is the only player to win a Cy Young as a starter and a Rolaids Relief award as a reliever. Every other player who has both did both as relievers (Eric Gagne, Steve Bedrosian, Rollie Fingers, and Eckersley). The only thing Smoltz does not have that Fingers and Eck have is an MVP award. However, since the explosion of offense, especially after the juiced ball era, baseball writers are prejudice against pitchers. Johan Santana was the move valuable player in the game last year and he received 114 points, or seventh most. When Smoltz won his Cy Young with an amazing 24-8 record and 276 K's, he received 33 points (finishing 11th). Baseball writers just do not discount the amazing offense numbers that players now reach.
Beyond just the accolades, Smoltz has a huge postseason career to fallback on. In 207 postseason games, he is 15-4 with four saves and 194 K's. His postseason ERA is 2.65. Granted, the increase in postseason action makes it tough to really gauge Smoltz's place in postseason action, he does have 15 postseason wins, best in history. Not nearly as impressive as Whitey Ford's ten World Series wins, but still, impressive. With Tom Glavine and Andy Pettitte, Smoltz is one of a trio of players to reach 200 innings in the postseason. Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux could make it five if their teams get to the playoffs. Smoltz also leads Clemens by 22 K's for the most strikeouts. He ranks 8th in World Series only action. But unlike Glavine and Maddux, or even Randy Johnson, Pettitte, and Clemens; Smoltz is not even close to the most loses in the postseason. Glavine and Maddux combined have 30 postseason loses. The Big Unit and the Rocket? A combined 17 loses.
Smoltz? Four. If you buy into win-loss record, that is damn impressive.
Is Smoltz Hall of Fame bound? Do you really think you need to ask that?
EDIT: Only 14 people have struck out 3,000 batters, not 18. Smoltz would likely become the 16th if Pedro Martinez gets two strikeouts between now and the moment Smoltz reached 3K. I've edited it in the column, but it should be edited here to point that out.
The latest evidence comes in the form of Carroll Rogers. I am not sure whether Carroll is a woman or a guy with a girl's name, but he/she (maybe it is a transvestite?) wrote an article titled "Does Smoltz have Hall of Fame credentials?"
Does he?
Here is a pretty easy way to establish that. No player in the history of the game has saved 150 saves and won 200 games. Nobody. Dennis Eckersley came close and he seems pretty convinced that Smoltzie is a Hall of Famer.
Smoltz is also going to become the 16th player in history to strike out 3,000 batters. Of those who have, six players have not been elected to the Hall of Fame. Five are active and of those five, four are easily in the Hall (Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Pedro Martinez). Curt Schilling may also be in. The only retired player who is not in the Hall is Bert Blyleven. It is a great argument that he deserves election. The only thing hurting Bly is the fact he never won a Cy Young, nor was even a Cy Young runnerup and only got real love from the baseball writers in 1984. Still, Bly should be in the Hall, especially when the Hall in 2000 put Tony Perez in the Hall. Perez was a good player, but a Hall of Famer? Please.
So, Smoltz has the numbers. Does he have the other accolades? Well, he does have a Cy Young Award and has been to seven All-Star games. He has also is the only player to win a Cy Young as a starter and a Rolaids Relief award as a reliever. Every other player who has both did both as relievers (Eric Gagne, Steve Bedrosian, Rollie Fingers, and Eckersley). The only thing Smoltz does not have that Fingers and Eck have is an MVP award. However, since the explosion of offense, especially after the juiced ball era, baseball writers are prejudice against pitchers. Johan Santana was the move valuable player in the game last year and he received 114 points, or seventh most. When Smoltz won his Cy Young with an amazing 24-8 record and 276 K's, he received 33 points (finishing 11th). Baseball writers just do not discount the amazing offense numbers that players now reach.
Beyond just the accolades, Smoltz has a huge postseason career to fallback on. In 207 postseason games, he is 15-4 with four saves and 194 K's. His postseason ERA is 2.65. Granted, the increase in postseason action makes it tough to really gauge Smoltz's place in postseason action, he does have 15 postseason wins, best in history. Not nearly as impressive as Whitey Ford's ten World Series wins, but still, impressive. With Tom Glavine and Andy Pettitte, Smoltz is one of a trio of players to reach 200 innings in the postseason. Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux could make it five if their teams get to the playoffs. Smoltz also leads Clemens by 22 K's for the most strikeouts. He ranks 8th in World Series only action. But unlike Glavine and Maddux, or even Randy Johnson, Pettitte, and Clemens; Smoltz is not even close to the most loses in the postseason. Glavine and Maddux combined have 30 postseason loses. The Big Unit and the Rocket? A combined 17 loses.
Smoltz? Four. If you buy into win-loss record, that is damn impressive.
Is Smoltz Hall of Fame bound? Do you really think you need to ask that?
EDIT: Only 14 people have struck out 3,000 batters, not 18. Smoltz would likely become the 16th if Pedro Martinez gets two strikeouts between now and the moment Smoltz reached 3K. I've edited it in the column, but it should be edited here to point that out.
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