You Got Questions?

Forty-two games into the season, the Braves inability to go one way or another has forced me to ask many questions. And in a true sign of ego, I will also answer them.

1. Are the Braves a .500 team?

Atlanta seems incapable of getting a run and staying above .500. A five-game win streak got them to 10-9, they lost two straight. Got back to 12-11, lost four straight. Followed that with another five game win streak to get to 18-15, lost three straight, and have been alternating wins and loses since to come into Sunday at 21-21.

Now, most will point two the road record (6-16), but I think that is misleading. They have only allowed seven more runs on the road than they've scored so that record should not be that bad. Then there is the 2-12 one-run record. I feel one-run records can be a sign that the bullpen hasn't been keeping leads, but its hard to really get much out of the record beyond that and there are better ways of seeing how effective the bullpen has been at keeping leads.

I think right now...the Braves are merely a .500 team for a few reasons. The starting pitching has yet to show up beyond Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Tom Glavine has had a few games and a few bad ones so in truth, that is what the Braves had to expect from him. That is why they needed three reliable pitchers _and_ Glav. They do not have that. Jo-Jo Reyes has shown a bit more control than he did last year with just five walks in three games, but he has been far too hittable. Chuck James was horrible and demoted. Jeff Bennett retakes his place and in Bennett's defense, he never lost a spot in the staff. His three starts aren't that bad (0-1, 3.07 ERA)

And then, there is the bullpen. In the late innings, this pen is really at a disadvantage. Manny Acosta simply isn't that good. Blaine Boyer's arm will likely self-destruct if he doesn't get a few days off. Royce Ring has sorta done his job. He somehow has been recorded as pitching seven innings...in 17 games. Will Ohman's WHIP is scary, but the results haven't been. However, there is no Rafael Soriano, no Mike Gonzalez, not even a John Smoltz just yet. Phil Stockman will hopefully add something solid.

In the lineup, four players are getting it done, four are not. That sets you up for a lot of innings where rallies get started, but not finished. Chipper Jones is obviously incredible and Yunel Escobar, Mark Kotsay, and Brian McCann have followed suit. But the Braves need, absolutely need, better production from Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur. The LF platoon of Matt Diaz/Gregor Blanco isn't too bad, but one can't hit for power and the other can't get on base.

The lineup is the easiest to fix. You just have to believe that players will perform up to their reasonable expectations. But the pitching will need work and improved health, especially in the pen. I am still convinced that if the Braves want to compete for a spot in October, they need a starter to step behind Hudson and Jurrjens.

2. Will Chipper hit .400?

Simple answer, no. But he will win his first batting title this year and if the Braves can somehow get into the playoffs, will be in line for his second MVP. Chipper is locked in like I have never seen him. If he can stay healthy and play 145 games, I have to believe that he can definitely hit above .350, which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself. In the last five years, five players have managed that feat (Ichiro twice).

3. Are the Braves better with KJ and Kotsay switching spots?

Stagnant, not better. While Kots is outproducing KJ so far, KJ remains the better offensive talent and while Bobby Cox never seems to agree, the better player to receive more at-bats. You organize your batting lineup to get your best offensive players the most at-bats. Hence why the top five players should include KJ, Yunie, Chipper, Teix, and McCann. Maybe if it's a lefty on the mound, I could see dropping McCann and hitting Francoeur fifth.

4. Finally, will Mike Hampton finally help the Braves win games this year?

Yes.

By not pitching them.

Early May Report

The Braves continue to drift along, a game under .500, and without much (get ready, Joe Morgan) consistency. However, when you look at the injuries, poor play, and lack of real definitions in the bullpen, the fact that the Braves aren't four or five games under .500 is a damn accomplishment.

Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.

The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.

The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.

Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.

-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.

-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.

-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.

-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.

-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.

-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.

-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.

-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.

Busy week, ya know?

Baseball is finally getting fun again.

-Spring training previews are up and running. The Sports Network actually considers Chris Resop an addition to talk about. That's scary. Basic premise - Braves will improve this year because of the acquisitions of old Braves. Not that abnormal, I suppose.

-Elsewhere, Dugout Central has their very own preview. Much more informative and includes the very fun "The aforementioned Jurrjens could be getting starts as early as May, or whenever the annual Mike Hampton injury occurs." I'm glad we got such a joke as a starter. I think it's very fair to say that the Braves are, yes, headed in the right direction, but this might not be their year. Still not convinced that this staff is as deep and talented as people might think.

-Spring Training 08 has a theory that Matt DeSalvo is the best non-roster invitee to make an impact on the Braves. Consider the lists of NRI includes Javy Lopez, Jordan Schafer, and Brent Lillibridge, the choice of DeSalvo is a interesting one. I doubt he will get more than five innings myself.

-Here's a little didy about Josh Anderson. Is "didy" even a word? Not according to my spell check, but if it's not a word, than just what the fuck was John Cougar Mellencamp singing about? Didy isn't a word...ditty is, however. Learn something new every day.

-There's been a slew of Bobby Cox articles, mostly about his proposed retirement. Bowman and DOB both touch on it, so really, it's just one brain. I frankly think this is it and everyone is kinda in on it. There's that, "win one more for the Coxer" feeling to this season with Glav and Javy back in the fold. My sources tell me Sid Bream is coming out of retirement to compete with Thor for the backup first base job.

-DOB's article also said the Braves have brought back Damian Moss. You know he just wants to attach himself to Glav's hand again.

-Jayson Stark gave Glav his own article, too. A lot of people can't stand Stark, but I think he's merely a pompous ass and as one myself, I see a lot of pluses in that. But what the hell is up with that pic? It scares me.

Thing is...all the words in the world are worthless if Glav can't turn a few things on its head. He needs to prove that he do basically what he did two years ago. Drastically improve his K/9. Last year, it was 3.9. There is no amount of "well, take out those last few starts" arguments that avoid one truth. Glav was lucky to be having a "good" year until September. His defensive ERA also ballooned.

His projections are not promising. The Bill James ones are always the most positive, but his Marcel is just not good enough. 4.50 ERA, less than 100 K's, less than 200 innings. These things will keep Glav from being significantly helpful to the Braves, especially in the way Stark projects.

-DOB also talks up the Glavine subject, but he provides some other nuggets on Jeff Bennett, Mark Kotsay, and Jeff Francoeur. Bennett must have Bobby's support because he keeps getting mentioned. I'm dieting too so maybe I can be the fifth or "sixth" starter as well. Francoeur is blowing up and Kotsay has a beard. Thanks for the big time insight, DOB.

-Um...go Braves?

Pitchers and Catchers, Oh My!

-Camp Roger is upon us and DOB is there. Apparently, the fact that Peter Moylan has tattoos is the first story that needs to be discussed. The Braves may or may not be able to get by the Mets this year, but we got a tattooed sidearming Aussie freak.

-Huddy talks about the Mets new pitcher. “He’s pretty good, but he’s not unbeatable. He got hit around a little bit last year.”

While Santana's H/9 last year was 7.52, slightly more than his 7.34 career mark, I wouldn't say he got hit around a bit. Especially if I was like Timothy and my H/9 last year was 8.87. Santana is so much more than pretty good. The only pitcher in baseball that can even come close to Santana is Jake Peavy. Timmyboy, just don't give him any kind of motivation to beat the Braves. He doesn't need it.

-Two outfielders are bigger, according to DOB. Jeff Francoeur kind of scares me. I really think people like to talk about the 30 HR mark too much. Francoeur did not reach that mark last year, but he was so much better than he was the previous year. If he focuses on being a bigger power hitter, I'm worried. The other outfielder is Brandon Jones. I know most bloggers like Mac, Jenny, and Lauren can't fathom why Matt Diaz shouldn't be the everyday guy in left, but if Brandon Jones is getting a chance, I see why Diaz shouldn't be the everyday starter. Jones is going to be really good, I feel. If he adds more power to his rapidly developing game, he could add another big bat.

-If Teix doesn't sign...move Diaz to first fulltime. Just an idea.

-Other stuff...Blaine Boyer is getting a lot of press here and there. DOB talks him up a little as well. I think he has a leg up on any contenders for an open spot in the pen....Thor is still getting love from Bobby....Lillibridge has a future with the team. I really feel he'll be a starter sooner rather than later.

-Mike Hampton looks set for camp. Mac might be right after all about how big of a roll Hambone can play next year if he can just be healthy. But Wren is fooling himself or just taking a good PR class this winter to say the Braves rotation is nine-deep. Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, Hambone, James, Reyes, Jurrjens, Bennett,...Zane Smith?

-What the hell is with all the talking about Jeff Bennett? I'm going to have to use that damn tag more often it seems.

-The Braves signed another Aussie. He kinda looks like a serial killer. He plays shortstop. That's...um...about all I know.

-Damn, it's nice to get baseball back into the blog.

Shanks talks, I listen

Don't ask me why so many people with ties to the Braves are on my shitlist. Bowman, DOB, Terrence, and also, Bill Shanks. He writes for The Braves Show and asks users to pay for a lot of their material. I hate that on principal. He also wrote a book blasting moneyball philosophy despite the fact that he knew about as much about moneyball as I know about Harry Potter books. It's about a kid who does magic and has a ring that others want, right? Or am I mixing them up?

Anyway, surprisingly free, here is Bilbo's Could 'Mike & Mike' be the keys this season?

This article has nothing to do with Greenie or Golic, nor even a drunken Dana Jacobson. Any of the three would have been an improvement.

Baseball fans all over the country are talking about what their favorite team must do to win this season. There are a lot of sentences that start with 'if,'and every team has a lot of ifs three weeks before spring training starts.

I especially like the "If the Braves were a kind of tree, what kind of tree would they be?"

Skipping down...

Hampton hasn’t pitched in a big league game since August of 2005. He was really good that season, perhaps the best since he had joined the Braves two years earlier. Atlanta finally had the Mike Hampton that had been such a big winner in Houston and New York, but then things spiraled out of control.

Define "really good." Hampton was...decent. Over a dozen games, that is. I, like many others, remember than thumping the Braves gave the Astros where Hampton tossed shutout ball and homered, but if you are going to call a guy "really good," the numbers must support it.

They don't, by the way. A 3.50 ERA which is close to the way he pitched (3.88 DERA) and a -2 stuff rating. Meaning...he wasn't that good. He was just there.

Hampton had to have Tommy John Surgery in September of 2005, which killed his 2006 season. Then when he was coming back last spring, Hampton tore his oblique muscle in his side, which would have kept him out until May. But as he was rehabbing that injury, Hampton started to have additional elbow discomfort. It was then learned Hampton had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, and surgery in April knocked out his 2007 season.

Yay, insurance money on his contract. Boo getting him in the first place.

Fans were ready to see how Hampton would do in his latest comeback, but then on Thanksgiving Day two months ago Hampton strained his hamstring. The sad thing was he actually looked good on the mound before the injury. His delivery looked great for someone that had missed so much time, and his pitches looked surprisingly crisp for his first ‘official’ time on the mound.

Why wouldn't the fans be ready?

I think what you meant to say is that fans were excited to see how Hampton would do...

But that's not true either.

You wonder how much better the Braves would have been if Hampton had been able to pitch in 2007. They had so much trouble in the rotation after John Smoltz and Tim Hudson that we can only imagine how many more games they might have won last season if Hampton had been healthy. The Braves painfully learned the importance of a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, a role Hampton might have thrived in if he had been able to pitch.

What would Hampton had been worth to the Braves? Let's say he pitched like he did in 2004. He would have been worth about two more wins above a replacement player (WARP) than Chuck James and James was worth about two more than Buddy Carlyle. In this best case scenario, a healthy Hampton would have been worth three-to-four wins. Not enough to get the Braves in the playoffs.

But a healthy Hampton, behind Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine, could make the rotation very strong. Before you laugh, remember how well Hampton pitched right before he got hurt. If he’s anywhere near that level, as a number four starter, the Braves would be in great shape.

That was laughable, Bilbo. The chances are minimal that Hampton will provide much more than James could. Now, having James and Hampton healthy and taking their turns in the rotation DOES make it better. But again, you use a phrase like "very strong." If that rotation is very strong, just what is the DBacks staff of Webb, Haren, and Co?

What if Hampton could at least come back and make 15-20 starts? Forget about him being ready on Opening Day for a moment. What if he could at least come back sometime in June and then contribute to the rotation for the rest of the season? That would be like adding a front-line starter in a trade on Deadline Day. It could make a huge difference in the Braves’ chances to get back to the postseason.

Now, Hampton's a front-line starter?

In Bilbo's world, words are just things with no meaning.

He goes on to talk about Gonzo, but the Hampton stuff just bothers me too much to continue.

Boring Week of Nothing

-Well, there was little to talk about after this week. Let's see, Mike Hampton is hurt. Major surprise, right? Chances are pretty good that his winter league action is over. After one inning. Seriously, I can't wait until his contract is up.

-Speaking of Braves no longer being Braves (terrible movie title), Peterson Orr was released. Can I get a w00t, w00t?

-w00t, w00t

-If that wasn't enough for a w00t, w00t...maybe the fact that Lance Cormier has been DFA'd is enough to get ya excited. At least, two of the medicore players who aren't good enough to stick around won't continue to get shots.

-In other transaction news, the Braves have offered arbitration to Ron Mahay, but declined to offer it to their other free agents, most notably including Andruw Jones. One final nail in the coffin for Andruw's time as a Brave.

-Braves are supposedly quite interested in getting in a few deals at the winter meetings, but no idea who will be their main targets. I still think Coco Crisp might be a focal point. Either way, I doubt we'll see a Lastings Milledge type deal.

Ruff?

The official dog of the Atlanta Braves, Mike Hampton, is back. Well, sorta. He pitched an inning in the Mexican League on Thanksgiving (way to be American, Mikey) and gave up a hit and struck out one in an inning. The hit oddly came against the only lefty he faced in the frame, but whatever.

Hat tip to sdp.bravesfan via this chopnation thread. He is also the owner of Chop Chat.

Week in Review

Hey, another week gone, another week of news that I have missed. Heck, maybe you have even missed it.

...heck? What am I, a farmer?

First off, here is a little praise for the best Bush currently going. Paul, a minor league swingman for the Braves, was inducted into the Georgia Southwestern State University Hall of Fame. Bush probably will never get much of a chance as a major leaguer. However, his stats are pretty decent. He's coming off an injury so maybe he can surprise some people.

The Rocky Mount Telegram called Atlanta the worst sports city. I only mention it because I hate corny pieces of shit and this one fills that sad requirement.

Meanwhile, just sticking with the Atlanta Braves, Mark Bowman talked again. One sentence scares me tremendously.

"The addition of one or two starters this offseason would certainly enhance what already has the makings of a strong rotation."

The context was that adding Glavine and maybe another pitcher merely makes the staff, that was strong before the offseason even officially began, that much better. This scares me because this is the same crap they were saying last year. On one hand, "let's get some starting pitching." On the other, "with Mike Hampton returning, we are already good." No...we weren't going to be and we weren't. Call a spade a spade, bitchnuts. Bowman is the Braves talking piece and anytime he makes statements like this, I start shaking uncontrollably.

The article also goes on to talk about how Brent Lillibridge is a candidate for the CF job. This is big because I don't remember that officially being declared. Lillibridge was going to play CF in the AFL, but an injury has postponed that. It will be interesting to see what he can do. However, the hype over Jordan Schaffer still bugs me. I mean, why point to an absolute rarity like Rafael Furcal? Schuerholz, keep Wren from talking.

The Braves made their first offseason move as they DFA'd Chad Paronto and picked up Chris Resop off waivers. Resop made his debut with the Florida Marlins three years ago and in 41 games in the majors, four last year with the Angels, Resop has a 1.83 WHIP and a 5.48 ERA. Fun! 26 walks to 27 strikeouts. Horray!

However, he will turn 25 on November 4th so he's not completely without some hope. Has only been a professional for five years. Has been used often as a closer and looked absolutely filthy in 2004 when he had 71 K's to 8 walks. He has yet to get that talent back. Last year, he was pretty average in the PCL. A nothing-to-talk about move that was probably spurred on by the fact Paronto was due arbitration this year.

Elsewhere, DOB talks about how the Braves won't deal KJ for Crisp. It's pretty sad when DOB is required to lay down some truthiness.

That's all the news that was fit to print. Whatever the heck that means.

There's that damn word again...

So...

Didn't update as much as I thought I would yesterday. Blame Google and the programs I got from them. You would think Google Earth isn't that fun, but you'd be wrong.

So, here is a hodgepodge of stuff.

DOB is still harping on Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, but at least seems to be resigned to understand how doubtful that is. He throws Noah Lowry out as a possibility. Seriously, can the Braves not get a right-handed pitcher anymore?

Lowry had a pretty solid first two seasons, but has been bad the last two. Biggest reason? He sported a solid 7.0+ K/G in '04 and '05, but that number has slumped into the 4.7-4.9 range the past two seasons. If you can't strikeout batters, you will make things much, much harder on yourself. Seems more like a project than a serious improvement.

Elsewhere, in the DOB column..."The Kansas City Royals and GM Dayton Moore are having their organizational meetings this week in Surprise, Ariz., and a major topic of conversation is their managerial search. Braves hitting coach Terry Pendleton’s name has been mentioned prominently, which comes as no surprise. But also mentioned by members of the Kansas City media has been Brian Snitker, the Braves’ third-base coach and a minor league lifer until he was brought up to the bigs to join the Braves’ staff last winter."

I don't mind either leaving. TP has watched over a very productive offense and maybe he has played a starring role, but I just don't feel he has been much more than there for the ride. Snitker has experience as a manager in the system, but don't think he'll be much of a loss either. Still holding out hope for Manny Acta being the Braves manager when Bobby leaves.

Pendleton is also a possible St. Louis target and that makes a lot of sense.

Down in Orlando, the Braves are beginning their organizational meeting. John Schuerholz once again talks up the need to focus on starting pitching and hopefully that doesn't just mean signing Tom Glavine for a fun little year. However, the real news from this column is Schuerholz almost going to the point to say that he has no faith that Hampton will be in the rotation next year. Sure, if he's healthy, probably, but the Braves can't "expect anything." Good to hear, JS. Apparently, you can teach an old dog a new trick.

Finally...Baseball America released their Top 20 Southern League Prospects. Here are the Braves players that made the cut.

5. Brandon Jones, of, Mississippi Braves
13. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Mississippi Braves
16. Jo Jo Reyes, lhp, Mississippi Braves
17. Diory Hernandez, ss, Mississippi Braves

Bit surprised by the Hernandez selection in that he doesn't seem like a true prospect, but a good minor league player and possible bench player in the majors. BJ's got some real upside, doesn't he? Matty, sorry, but BJ sticks around, I would not get too comfortable in a starting role.