Braves Say Goodbye to Shea

In their last series at Shea Stadium before the Mets move across the street, the Braves finished in the same way they have finished many three-game sets in Flushing since 1991. They won the series two games to one. After halting their infamous one-run game losing streak on the road with a 3-2 win in the opener of the double header against Johan Santana and Company yesterday, the Braves failed to score with a lineup that even the eternally optimistic Bobby Cox had to feel a little down about putting up.

Gregor Blanco, CF
Martin Prado, 2B
Kelly Effin Johnson, 2B
Omar Infante, LF
Krotchy McKrotchman, 1B
The French Prince, RF
Lillipad, SS
Clint Sammons, C
Jo-Jo Reyes, P

While there is never an excuse to get shutout by a rookie who the Brew Crew tore a new one in his major league debut, that is still pretty bad.

However, they dusted off, got off the mat, shook off the cobwebs, insert sports cliche here, and came from behind to beat the Mets 7-4 earlier today. The Mets fans, who enter hysteria at the smallest sign of failure, were on suicide watch following the game as nightmares of last September began. Luis Ayala, who I picked up for my fantasy team (oops) entered with a 4-2 lead, built by Braves slayer Oliver Perez and seven quality innings. Ayala then allowed three consecutive hits to Krotchy, PH KJ (sounds like code), and Greg "The Hammer" Norton. Norton's hit went the distance, though, and the game was quickly 5-4. Not to be outdone, Pedro Feliciano entered to allowed two hits and walk two and get charged with the other two runs to build a three run lead that Gonzo could not surrender.

Jorge Julio, who tossed an unimpressive 8th, improved to 2-0 in seven games with the Braves. He has pitched like shit, but that's why win-loss record is increasingly frustrating.

The win, combined with Philly sweeping a pair from the Brewers, has tightened the race in the NL East and the Wild Card. The latter is now tied between the Brewers and Phillies and the NL East is now separated by just a game. But none of that matters. The Braves have now won seven of their last ten. This is a team that won just nine of 29 games in the month of August so perspective, people!

CHIPPER WATCH 2008
Chipper Jones went 3 for 5 today. Albert Pujols went 2 for 4. Here is the updated batting average.
Chipper - .36471
Pujols - .36008

Elsewhere, these people believe Matt Holliday might be in the future for the Braves. A hypothetical offer...KJ, Thomas Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez, and Kyle Cofield. Holliday is due $13.5M next season and will be a free agent after 2009. His agent is Scott Boras. I'm just not too keen on trading away the system for another player. And for the record, though I am not trying to say his OPS away from Coors will turn into his full season OPS, he is only OPSing .803 away from Coors in his career. He is a good hitter, but he's certainly not that awesome.

This quote from Ned Colletti bugs me. “I’ll let you know in a year.” The quote was to the question did he regret signing Andruw Jones? Well, you know, Colletti, you knew the dangers. Andruw has not changed. What, did you think you could throw a shitload of money at him and suddenly, he is Alex Rodriguez? It does not work like that. You should take responsibility for that signing, not pass it on to Andruw.

By the way, I am in love with Kat Dennings. She makes me feel funny like I gotta hurl. Wayne says that I should hurl and "If you blow chunks and she comes back, she's yours. But if you spew and she bolts, then it was never meant to be." Hmm...worth a shot.

Another loss

Well, the Braves lose again. Francoeur goes 1 for 7, Jeff Bennett sucks, and the Braves used nine pitchers, only maybe two deserve to be in the majors. Seriously, how does this team ever win?

This game also included the the latest installment of "Martin Prado: Major League First Baseman." Even if you are a bit like me and do not put too much value in positional value, a 1B has to hit for more power than Prado, right?

To prove how these games are very much like exhibitions, only two players played the entire game (Escobar and the aforementioned French Prince). Chipper went 3 for 6 to push his AVG to .358. That is still a point behind Albert Pujols, who went 1 for 4, but his hit easily outdistanced any of Chipper's as it was a two-run shot, part of a 3-1 win in support of Adam Wainwright.

Hey, it's football season and in a rarity, all of my football teams won this weekend. JMU crushed North Carolina Central 53-7 (though NC Central is barely a DI-AA team), Notre Dame avoided an upset by beating San Diego State, and the Cowboys rolled over the Browns. Good weekend there.

Oh, yeah, baseball blog. Braves remain in Atlanta for a three-game set with the Rockies before heading to Shea next weekend. Oddly, Fox's signature game next Saturday is the Braves/Mets. Maybe that will change. Maybe it should change.

18 games left. Six game lead over the Nats to stay out of last place.

Can the Braves do it?

w00t, keeping Washington in last place!

Back-to-back wins against the oddly worse Washington Nationals have the Braves feeling good about life. The guys feel like they can go home and diddle the wife. The coaches feel like their hard work is paying off. And the fans don't really have anyone to bitch about. And the Braves still have a hope to finish above .500. Yes, they cannot lose another game, but stranger things have happened?

Oh, they haven't? Well then.

KJ's been hitting the ball a bit. In his last 19 games, KJ is hitting .338/.397/.507. Now, it's certainly nothing too special, but hopefully a good sign. I'm such a KJ apologist, I know. But hey, he's the only one who I really feel is hitting significantly under his ability.

And yes, that includes Jeff Francoeur, who some guy named Marco Estrada hit yesterday. Methinks Estrada is actually a Braves fan. Anyway, the French prince is day-to-day.

Brandon Jones continues to get regular at-bats and is succeeding at them. I still am not ready to write him off as a potential .900 OPS guy from the outfield, though he was pretty bad at Richmond this year. I blame the confusing Richmond traffic. Lillipad, you're excused, too.

J-And, who is a great navigator, is also hitting in Atlanta. .305/.369/.441 with five steals. I don't think the power will be sustained, but if he keeps that SLG above .400 and that OBP in reasonably effective leadoff status, he is already much more valuable than Gregor Blanco, who would slide into a solid fourth outfielder.

The outfield for next year is problematic for a few reasons. One, I doubt they will deal Francoeur, so let's pencil him in right. Let's say J-And has a foot in the door in center. You need a bigger bat in left. Your infield, for argument's sakes, is pretty well packed. Even if you deal KJ, which has been discussed, are you going to find a bigger bat for the position? Doubtful. This team needs power, ESPECIALLY if they deal KJ, who after McCann, Chipper, Krotchy, and Francoeur, is the only player with potential power. I like Brandon Jones, but you can't rely on that. I think the Braves need a power bat in left next season.

The pitching...remains horrible and the Braves are getting a collection of weak pitchers to finish the season. I'd write more...but Notre Dame's on! Go Irish!

Yikes

I'm being no-hit by Barry Zito in Out of the Park, but even that's not as bad as the Braves have been recently. 18-3 loss yesterday which would have amusing if the Rams had been beating the Falcons by that score. Instead, it was the Cardinals beating the Braves. I think LaRussa shouldn't have settled for so many field goals, but that's why I'm not a coach.

Holy shinazzle (I am a German thug), Jeff Francoeur with the infield single to break up the no-no.

Back to real baseball, the Braves are now 6 and 15 in August. In 21 games, they have scored 86 runs, which isn't too terrible I guess. They have allowed 127. Since June 1st, the Braves are a horrible 27-46. They are 17 games under .500. They have lost six straight and 11 of 12.

So, basically, things are bad, mmmmk?

This team is so bad on so many levels. Martin Prado, all of 17 professional homeruns since singing as an undrafted free agent, has been getting starts at first. Omar Infante, all of 35 major league homeruns since 2002, has been the fifth placed hitter. Even Chipper Jones has struggled in August, hitting .289 with just one homerun.

And God help me, do I even want to mention the pitching? The starting rotation's ERA in the second half...5.62. The bullpen has been even worse...7.36.

The 80's Braves teams are calling and saying "damn man, that's rough."

The 119 loss Tigers team a few years ago just sent a txt, "keep yo head up."

Tanner of the Bad News Bears just yelled, "God damn, man, kick some fucking ass."

The way the team is playing, they wouldn't even beat the Hawaii Little League team.

Is it over yet?

Um, yeah

So my last post talked about renewed faith. Well, that went away with Francoeur's promotion after, oh, three hours. Maybe it was five hours, but I know the demotion did not last nearly long enough. Since then, the Braves have officially packed it in, trading Teix to the Angels for Casey Krotchman (thanks Francoeur) and some minor league pitcher. I am not going to delve into whether the Braves got enough. Either way, it's done and gone.

Also gone is Tim Hudson. Tommy John. Oh happy day...

Also gone, but with great sadness, Skip Carey. While Skip was never my favorite announcer, he was a fun one to listen to. You can find several links to quotes, tributes, etc. at this chopnation link. By the way, we have closed off new members from easily coming on board due to spam. If you want to join chopnation, register and then e-mail me. You'll be in shortly.

What else...

Oh, Jeff Francoeur sucks. Like seriously. Like, even AJC is saying it. I mean, when Bobby finally breaks down and says..."ya know, I'd rather start an outfield of Infante, Kotsay, and Blanco than have you start Francoeur" your career took a wrong turn at Albuquerque.

Charlie Morton has had a few good starts. Still not nearly convinced he's much of anything.

Tom Glavine's returning Wednesday. I am really hoping he has a nice few starts and the Braves can pull a waiver deal.

What to look forward the rest of the way...see if KJ can finally turn the corner this season. He's been flirting with really good and really average numbers...how great will McCann's season rank in Braves history among catchers?...can Chipper stay healthy and hit well enough to take home a batting title?...can Jurrjens finish strong and make it really hard for the baseball writers to ignore what he has done this year?...what roles will Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, and Jo-Jo Reyes play in September?

I am actually interested in what happens the rest of the way. After all, according to the Forbes, I am quite loyal to the Braves.

You Got Questions?

Forty-two games into the season, the Braves inability to go one way or another has forced me to ask many questions. And in a true sign of ego, I will also answer them.

1. Are the Braves a .500 team?

Atlanta seems incapable of getting a run and staying above .500. A five-game win streak got them to 10-9, they lost two straight. Got back to 12-11, lost four straight. Followed that with another five game win streak to get to 18-15, lost three straight, and have been alternating wins and loses since to come into Sunday at 21-21.

Now, most will point two the road record (6-16), but I think that is misleading. They have only allowed seven more runs on the road than they've scored so that record should not be that bad. Then there is the 2-12 one-run record. I feel one-run records can be a sign that the bullpen hasn't been keeping leads, but its hard to really get much out of the record beyond that and there are better ways of seeing how effective the bullpen has been at keeping leads.

I think right now...the Braves are merely a .500 team for a few reasons. The starting pitching has yet to show up beyond Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Tom Glavine has had a few games and a few bad ones so in truth, that is what the Braves had to expect from him. That is why they needed three reliable pitchers _and_ Glav. They do not have that. Jo-Jo Reyes has shown a bit more control than he did last year with just five walks in three games, but he has been far too hittable. Chuck James was horrible and demoted. Jeff Bennett retakes his place and in Bennett's defense, he never lost a spot in the staff. His three starts aren't that bad (0-1, 3.07 ERA)

And then, there is the bullpen. In the late innings, this pen is really at a disadvantage. Manny Acosta simply isn't that good. Blaine Boyer's arm will likely self-destruct if he doesn't get a few days off. Royce Ring has sorta done his job. He somehow has been recorded as pitching seven innings...in 17 games. Will Ohman's WHIP is scary, but the results haven't been. However, there is no Rafael Soriano, no Mike Gonzalez, not even a John Smoltz just yet. Phil Stockman will hopefully add something solid.

In the lineup, four players are getting it done, four are not. That sets you up for a lot of innings where rallies get started, but not finished. Chipper Jones is obviously incredible and Yunel Escobar, Mark Kotsay, and Brian McCann have followed suit. But the Braves need, absolutely need, better production from Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur. The LF platoon of Matt Diaz/Gregor Blanco isn't too bad, but one can't hit for power and the other can't get on base.

The lineup is the easiest to fix. You just have to believe that players will perform up to their reasonable expectations. But the pitching will need work and improved health, especially in the pen. I am still convinced that if the Braves want to compete for a spot in October, they need a starter to step behind Hudson and Jurrjens.

2. Will Chipper hit .400?

Simple answer, no. But he will win his first batting title this year and if the Braves can somehow get into the playoffs, will be in line for his second MVP. Chipper is locked in like I have never seen him. If he can stay healthy and play 145 games, I have to believe that he can definitely hit above .350, which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself. In the last five years, five players have managed that feat (Ichiro twice).

3. Are the Braves better with KJ and Kotsay switching spots?

Stagnant, not better. While Kots is outproducing KJ so far, KJ remains the better offensive talent and while Bobby Cox never seems to agree, the better player to receive more at-bats. You organize your batting lineup to get your best offensive players the most at-bats. Hence why the top five players should include KJ, Yunie, Chipper, Teix, and McCann. Maybe if it's a lefty on the mound, I could see dropping McCann and hitting Francoeur fifth.

4. Finally, will Mike Hampton finally help the Braves win games this year?

Yes.

By not pitching them.

Is he really?

This from the Morning Juice blog via Yahoo...

Jonesing for Chipper: He's had a fantastic career but he's underrated when it comes to placing him with the game's best in this or any era. And if somebody out there gives me a, "Oh, Hanley Ramirez went second in my roto draft, you're an idiot"-like comment, you're getting a virtual slap. Let's see ... other than Bonds and A-Rod, you could argue Chipper was as good or better than Griffey, the Big Hurt, Sheffield, Manny.

The one thing that makes this argument so valid despite Chipper's injuries is that he plays a much tougher position that 1B/DH or the OF. However, Junior does make up a little since he played center field, and a solid center field at that, for so many years.

If we were to start this discussion with adjusted OPS+, it would not look well for Chipper's argument. The Big Hurt is third active with 157 OPS+ and Manny fourth with 154. Chipper ranks tenth at 144, Sheff tied for 11th with 143, and Junior much further down the list at 15th with 139.

In runs created, Chipper again ranks tenth, but this time, all four players rank ahead. Thomas is second among active players (though first if you think Bonds is done), Junior third, Sheff fourth, and Manny fifth. However, runs created is a counting stat which automatically gives prejudice to those who have played more games. Here is how they rank in RC/G.

Thomas - 8.9
Manny - 8.9
Chipper - 8.3
Sheff - 7.6
Junior - 7.5

Much like OPS+, the stats seem to suggest that Thomas and Manny are clearly the best offensive players and Sheff and Junior don't belong in this discussion.

Let's go further...with baseball prospectus. EQA adjusted for all-time has Chipper with a .318 EQA. Manny trumps that with .327 and Thomas breezes past it with a .336 EQA. Griffey is at .309, but Sheff makes a minicomeback in the discussion with a .317.

How about Wins Above Replacement Player? Chipper is sitting pretty at 102.7. Manny again goes past that with 113.1, Thomas clicks in at an impressive 133.0, Junior at 132.4, and Sheff is at 124.2. But lets do a seasonal average. I took out brief cups of coffee like Chipper's 1993 callup and four plate appearances.

Manny - 7.56 WARP3
Chipper - 7.32 WARP3
Thomas - 7.00 WARP3
Junior - 6.62 WARP3
Sheff - 6.19 WARP3

We finally see Chipper's position give him a lift and surpass Thomas, whose stats are muddled by the fact he was a 1B and DH his whole career. But Manny's numbers still reign supreme. I think it's fair to say Chipper was as good or better than Thomas and definitely better than Junior and Sheff, but I'll keep Manny as better than Chipper. It's not a huge difference, but Manny is one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time. Yes, Chipper ranks just as high as switchhitters go, but there are many more right-handed hitters to rank against.

But fun stuff nonetheless.

Early May Report

The Braves continue to drift along, a game under .500, and without much (get ready, Joe Morgan) consistency. However, when you look at the injuries, poor play, and lack of real definitions in the bullpen, the fact that the Braves aren't four or five games under .500 is a damn accomplishment.

Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.

The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.

The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.

Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.

-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.

-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.

-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.

-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.

-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.

-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.

-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.

-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.

Mid-March strikes

-The weather is starting to warm up, my nephew has little league practice today, and stupid people are trying to say stupid things about subjects they have no business writing about. Yep, it's mid-March.

-The Tennessee Journalist has this bit on why the Braves will finish third in the NL East this year.

Renteria was criminally underrated during his time in Atlanta and Jones has been the Braves most imposing offensive threat for almost a decade.

Now, Renty may have been criminally underrated, though he did go to an All-Star game and got paid handsomely in his two years with the Braves (though the BoSox helped out). But the Jones they discuss is Andruw. Even if you attempt to make the argument that Chipper's injuries hurt his standing in a discussion like this, a simple look at baseball-reference's franchise index shows that over the last ten years, the leaders in OPS are as such.

Chipper Jones - Five Times
Adam LaRoche, Andruw Jones, J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Andres Galarraga - One Time

I mean, jeez, it's not even close. In the same article, he says the Nationals could finish .500, but the Braves are going to rue the day they allowed Andruw Jones go.

-On the other side, a real sports rag called the Sporting News did a bit on the Braves for their seasonal previews. Though wins as an individual stat is pretty weak, this was still pretty funny/sad.

Jurrjens, 22, was 3-1 in seven starts with Detroit last season. The Braves got three wins in 20 starts from Anthony Lerew, Jeff Bennett, Mark Redman, Lance Cormier and Jo-Jo Reyes combined during their turns as the No. 5 starter.

Ouch.

-The Bleacher Report says the Braves pitching might be the best in the NL East. It's a reasonable claim, one that can only be disputed by the Mets. The article seems to think the bullpen is the one real possible weakness, though it doesn't bother talking about the pen. It still scares me, I won't lie.

-New York Daily News is reporting Bobby may not retire. Yawn.

-Horacio Ramirez was by the Mariners earlier this week, making John Schuerholz's fleecing of the M's for Rafael Soriano all the more comical.

-Four players have already been cut from the pitching battles. Charlie Morton, Phil Stockman, Zach Schreiber, and Matt DeSalvo were sent to Richmond. DeSalvo and Stockman had the best chances of sticking with the team coming into spring training, but didn't impress the Braves enough. Say good-bye to Diory Hernandex and Javier Guzman, too. Both will likely get a chance in Richmond to start the year, but so far, have only been reassigned to the minor league camp.

-In spring action, the Braves added four wins, two ties, and two loses in the last week to their resume. They have the Cards today and tomorrow. Here is a run down on some of the competitions.

-Fifth Starter Battle (assuming Hampton's healthy enough to take one spot)
Buddy Carlyle - 11 K/1 BB, 7 R in 10 innings
Chuck James - 0 K/0 BB, 0 R in 2 innings
Jair Jurrjens - 5 K/6 BB, 5 R in 11.2 innings
Jo-Jo Reyes - 7 K/7 BB, 7 R in 7 innings

Think Jurrjens has this sowed up right now. Chuck James has already accepted possibly going to Richmond to start the year. Buddy is Jurrjens' main competition right now since James needs to build up his arm strength and Jo-Jo is horrible this spring

-Last Two Bullpen Spots (if Soriano, Moylan, Acosta, Ring, and Ohman have spots)
Colter Bean - 2 K/2 BB, 1 R in 3 innings
Jeff Bennett - 0 K/4 BB, 5 R in 5 innings
Blaine Boyer - 9 K/2 BB, 1 R in 9 innings
Francisley Bueno - 3 K/3 BB, 3 R in 7 innings
Chris Resop - 9 K/1 BB, 2 R in 8 innings
Jeff Ridgeway - 3 K/5 BB, 2 R in 6.1 innings
Tyler Yates - 3 K/6 BB, 8 R in 5 innings

Boyer is a keeper and Resop has the inside track for the seventh spot. Bueno, a minor league starter, has emerged as a bit of a contender and is getting the work, showing the Braves think he can do something. I can't see Yates breaking camp with the club.

-Backup Catcher
Javy Lopez - 4 for 23, 3 EBH
Corky Miller - 3 for 13, 1 EBH
Brayan Pena - 5 for 17, 0 EBH
Clint Sammons - 3 for 13, 2 EBH

Javy is being given the at-bats to win the battle for sure. Pena's edge in solid hitting is lessoned by no power and his defensive problems.

-Final Two Backups (assuming Thor and Prado have their spots sowed up and at least one of these spots will go to a outfielder)
Josh Anderson - 9 for 33, 2 EBH
Gregor Blanco - 7 for 16, 2 EBH
Joe Borchard - 10 for 29, 8 EBH (team high)
Brandon Jones - 6 for 33, 1 EBH
Brent Lillibridge - 9 for 40, 3 EBH
Jordan Schafer - 10 for 33, 4 EBH

I am a bit surprised by the at-bats Schafer has received, but I don't think he'll unseat anyone. Just figured I would add him. Lillibridge has the fact that nobody on this list can play shortstop and Prado has had only limited experience there in the minors. As good as Chard has been, he is in the right field mold and the Braves need a decent center fielder to caddy Kotsay. I say Lillibridge and Anderson more or less fall into their spots, though Anderson hasn't been that bad.

While it hovers over 30 here, people are playing baseball there

-Been a cold week at times for us Virginians, but alas, no one cares. Not even the weather Gods, who chose to surround Virginia with wintery mix, but never actually enter Virginia to give us some. Bastards.

-The Hattisburg American out of Hattisburg, Miss. is ready to call the NL East for the Braves. Jason Munz writes, "Braves over the Detroit Tigers in the 2008 World Series in six games." This is problematic because Munz, while he does write about the Braves to some degree, doesn't actually indicate the x-factor, the je ne sais quo that gets them over the hump. Just says there are reasons to be optimistic because the Braves have brought older people back. He does talk up Glav, but man, when did the quality start ever become some big number? This is monster cherrypicking in my opinion. A quality start is defined as six innings and three or less earned runs. This is nice, but it's hardly that noteworthy.

-McCann gets the DOB treatment with an article that while promising, seems to be regurgitated from last year. A year ago, the buzz was that despite such a huge year in 2006, McCann wanted to be a more complete player in 2007. I hope to see it this year and focusing on his diet/exercising might be a first step to getting better. To me, he just needs to work on his footwork.

-Speaking of Braves catchers, here is DOB again with an article on the faux battle for the backup catcher. This idea is to use Javy as a pinch hitter and Diaz as the emergency catcher. Now...that's going to be fun. I think as long as Javy stays healthy and doesn't completely suckass, he has the job. That's not a competition, though.

-THE MOST PROMISING part of the article was that Bobby said this. "Either way you go with the first two guys, it doesn't matter, with Kelly and Escobar." Aww, I love you again, Bobby. And shut up, Chipper. Mark Kotsay shouldn't be hitting second. You are a terrible manager!

-By the way, Chipper's mouth was yapping about the proposed two-horse race in the NL East. However, according to Chipper, the problem the last two years hasn't been pitching, Andruw Jones, or anything close. It's the fact that the Braves young guys don't have a "killer instinct." See, whereas Chipper's KI is worthy of a Hall of Fame induction, Francoeur and McCann just don't have enough KI to get the team to the next plateau. Kelly does, but he's Texan and its expected. Moylan doesn't because Aussies are not a war-loving people. Maybe Chipper should strap them down like they did that monkey in 28 Days Later and show footage of teams with lots of killer instinct until they are infected with enough KI to start a dynasty.

-Elsewhere, it seems the Braves are becoming the critics choice to be the NL East spoiler. In Macon, they also talk up how forgotten the Braves are, despite the fact they have been there the last two years and still retain beaucoups of hitting talent, not to mention a good pitching core that can compete with the better staffs in the NL.

-Speaking of pitchers...Matt DeSalvo is already impressing Bobby. You know Bobby...he absolutely loves those all-guts, no stuff pitchers. Jair Jurrjens is also getting a bit of play. First, the fantasy sports blog SportsJudge has a bit on Jurrjens being a bigger prospect than many might believe. I think that's accurate. His minor league numbers seem to give me the idea that he'll be a productive pitcher over the next dozen or so years. I don't think he will be dominating, but much like good pitchers, he'll be productive. Also on Jurrjens, here is a bit on him getting a shot with his favorite team. I didn't know he was from Curacao.

-If you need yet more info on Jordan Schafer, here you go. I really think he's getting blown up a bit too much, but maybe that's me desperately trying to keep my expectations low.

-Oh, the Braves East (Nats) signed Odalis Perez, who I believe becomes the first to complete the triangle with playing with the Braves, Braves West (Dodgers), and now Braves East. Congrats Odalis.

Closer and Closer we get...

-For the record, "Long Road To Ruin" by Foo Fighters is pure awesomeness.

-Beyond the Boxscore has a great overview on the impact, if any, injections truly have on the team's ability to come back and beat the other team. Last year's evidence suggests no real answer to the question, "Does getting ejected cause a team to get a spark?" This is one of those "numbers just won't tell you anything" discussions. Why? Well, it's simple. Anytime, and Chipper Jones mentions it, the evidence is found in "it seems we get a spark" from something, what that really means 10 times out of 10 is that you only remember the positives, not the negatives and in this case, it doesn't seem there is much motivation is watching your manager get ejected.

Not to say not ejected is the right way. I love that Cox battles for his players. It helps out the clubhouse. I just don't seem to think getting ejected is a significant spark. For instance, it may get a team's leaders to say, "he was pissed with us and we need to do better." That may have long-term consequences. See Lou Pinella's tirade last year against the Braves. His team, for whatever reason, played better in the weeks that followed. Maybe, just maybe, it was due to the ejection.

All that said...who the hell knows?

-At a blog of a Phillies fan, A Citizen's Blog, ranks the top three NL East staffs. Mike seems convinced that the Braves will have the best staff in the division. I don't agree, but I think he underscores a truth that is setting up. The Johan Santana trade makes the Mets better, but does it make them that much better? The Phils have Brett Myers/Cole Hamels, the Braves have Smoltz/Hudson, and the Mets have Santana/Pedro. Name-value alone, the Mets have the better one-two punch. Truth has it up in the air. I do think the Mets/Braves have better depth than the Phils.

-AJC has been busy. First, there is Mark Bradley talking up the Braves pitching. Not a whole lot here as Bradley's not DOB/Bowman. But he does seem to indicate, with the possible pushing of Frank Wren, that Chuck James may not even make the 25-man roster this spring. That is actually a bit newsworthy.

-DOB provides the 10 keys to success for the Braves. I think he was running out of shit when he said Mark Kotsay had to be a catalyst. Though...if he's pushing KJ lower in the order...he better damn well be a super duper catalyst.

-Elsewhere, Chipper Jones filed in on a DOB article with some, at times, jerky sounding remarks. Here is the direct link to where it begins.

-Um, that's all for now.

-I said that's all dammit.

Link for ya...

J.C. at Sabernomics always does a fantastic job and he pointed out some interesting numbers based on MPR, or margicial Revenue Product. I still need to sit down and understand this number thoroughly, but what I gather is it essentially looks at what a player should be making based on the market and his performance. Three Braves were ranked based on last year. No adjustments were made for position.

NL Cy Young
3. Tim Hudson, $15.22
5. John Smoltz, $13.73

NL MVP
5. Chipper Jones, $22.44

Still couldn't get to the playoffs...

Now he all angry!

Chipper Jones is apparently not too pleased with the baseball writers choosing David Wright as the NL Gold Glove winner. According to the AJC, Chipper said the news left him "speechless."

Listen, Chipper, I love you as a hitter. I think you do not even come close to receiving the credit you deserve. But come the eff on. It is pretty obvious to me Chipper feels he deserved some love for his year in which he committed just nine errors and posted a .971 fielding percentage. Stats that tell you nothing about that player's defensive ability when it comes to range, his performance based on what all 3B do, etc.

Tangotiger's Defensive Rankings

Tangotiger is one of the most well-respected figures in the stats/sabermetrics scene. In August of 2007, he put the ballots out for fan-scounting reports on defensive players. Here is the result.

My thoughts...the league average in agreement level is .71. Of the 16 players who were looked at, 11 were given a reasonable agreement level. I'm going to look at the handful that weren't.

Ryan Langerhans - .64 aggreement - Langer is an interesting case. Defensively, he looks extremely solid, but his defensive metrics have never been that wonderful. Of criticism seems to be his throws - every step of them. Range-wise, he seems to have it down pat and has great instincts, but while he doesn't have a Juan Pierre noodle arm, he doesn't have a great one either.

Chipper Jones - .59 agreement - For Chipper, it's always been the old debate that we see with our own eyes. He does one thing particularly well, or so it seems. He can charge the bouncer and make an accurate throw. This much appears true. And his instincts, possibly the reason he started at shortstop and stayed there for so long, are solid. He just has slow reaction time. I've heard anywhere between "horrible" to "Gold Glove calibar" defense when describing Chipper this year. I think he's a bit below-average, but he was as good this year as he has been in some time. Still believe he's more of a Vinny Castilla type, though.

Chris Woodward - .53 agreement - Talk about a guy who doesn't really do anything well. They grade Woody at third, but you can essentially grade him the same at any position. I have never seen a former shortstop turned utility man who can't play any position with any sort of talent. Usually, they were playing short for a reason. Not Woody. He was horrid. What was there not to agree with? Maybe some felt he sucked even more.

Julio Franco - .62 agreement - Juliold is the kind of guy who is well valued by his manager and talked up too much. If you ever watch Julio attempt to field, one thought goes through your head. "This is why they invented the DH." When I heard people talk up his defense on his return, I was flatout shocked. Did they actually believe Julio was going to provide much of a defensive lift? Seriously, this is where the disconnect between Bobby and the fans needs to be. I'm not sure whether Cox actually believes Franco is so good defensively or he was dire need of something good to say when asked about the old man, but he sucks.

Scott Thorman - .60 agreement - In truth, I think Thor is as defensively inept as Franco. I think he displays better instincts, though I agree Franco is a better thrower and does the 3-1 throw better. Too many times, Thor was throwing it at the pitcher, not leading the pitcher.

When looking back at 2006's scouting reports, a player who saw a good amount of change was Matt Diaz. In '06, he was graded a 28. This year, a 34. While not a massive improvement, I admit, the one big thing is that his instincts were graded much higher. This allows him to take much better routes. If defense was keeping him out of the lineup, at least he is closing in the gap.

Anyway, I'll be likely working till the end of the week so I'll continue my reviews and such then.

A-Z Reviews: J

Big review here with five players, four of which played big parts in the team last season.

Chuck James
-Charles, Chuck, or (as Chip nauseatingly calls him) Chucky had high hopes coming into the year. He had posted solid marks almost across the board in 2006, except for homeruns, and looked like the young pitcher the Braves needed to transition into the next era. However, there were critics. Like me. Who felt a lot of performance was sheer luck. A soft-tossing flyball pitcher who throws two pitches and neither are a breaking ball? Something has to give. Well, what gave was a bad season to follow. His 4.24 ERA again masks how poorly he pitched. His FIP and DERA were worse, his strikeouts were down, homeruns allowed went up. And again, he failed to get grounders. Even worse, in his 30 starts, James went six innings or better 12 times. Now, I wasn't a math major, but my dog tells me that's worse than half. Or less than. Whichever is worse.

2008 Outlook: James could be out of the long-term plans for the Braves for a few reasons. One, Jo-Jo Reyes is well loved by the organization. Two, if you sign Glavine and Hampton comes back, are you seriously going to go with three lefties in the staff (and three lefties who are essentially the same at that)? James probably isn't quite as bad as he pitched last year, but he needs to work on adding a sinker to his game. Or a curve. Or a slider. Or hell, a knuckleball. Right now, he throws two straight pitches. Even if you change speeds as well as Greg Maddux, you need to get some movement.

Kelly Johnson
-KJ. Dr. Sabermetric (I'm warming up to it). Start of the year, I was worried with KJ at second because this team defensively scares me. Keller put my worries to bed with a solid April and though he was not awesomely awesome over like that again, he was solid for the entire year. He finished with a .286 EQA and I believe he can only improve on that. 7.1 WARP1, third best VORP among NL 2B, 4.1 pitches per at-bat, and a lot better defense than I thought we would see. His 107 defensive rate means he was 7% better than average and 9 RAA is not too shabby at all. 14 errors look worrisome to most, however.

2008 Outlook: I expect better things out of KJ. A .300 EQA and a .900 OPS are not lofty goals, but real possibilities. If he can work on the grounder to his non-glove side, always a tough thing to do as my friend BFH pointed out, KJ will be an elite 2B for years to come.

Andruw Jones
-It's over. As I wrote in Raw Numbers #32, the Braves and Andruw Jones are no more and in many ways, I am both sad and excited about it. There is not much left to say about Andruw's year. As for as adjusted OPS goes, it was his worst full season. Taking 1997 out of the mix (a full season, yes, but he was mostly a part-time player), Andruw set career lows in runs scored, hits, doubles, and tied his career low in RBIs. His 236 total bases, a career low. And for Andruw, it just got worse. I was still pretty convinced into June and some of July, Andruw would turn it around to at least put up respectable numbers. I was so wrong.

2008 Outlook: This season, Andruw was absolutely horrible and there are many reasons to believe that Andruw will go down the same road players like Ruben Sierra (after his first seven years, he was never the same) and Darryl Strawberry (once he hit 30, it was all over). Andruw's over 30, though in today's game, that's not exactly a death sentence. Unlike Rusty Greer, he was not defensively reckless in center, but his body has taken a considerable amount of blows. His defense is already in decline. If he can keep it fairly average, he will still be a suitable CF, but once it falls, and I believe it will, he will be like Willie Mays in another way. Playing center field longer than he should.

Brandon Jones
-B.J. began the year with Mississippi and posted a very solid .875 OPS with them, complete with 15 HR and a .214 IsoSLG. He moved on to Richmond and his power slumped, but he still hit the ball well in 191 PA (.292 AVG/.354 OBP). That earned him a shot with the big club. He was only 3 for 19 with 8 K's, but did add a 2B and 4 ribbies. Jones is considered, by many, one of the Braves top five prospects and from what I heard, routinely flirting with a .900 OPS should be pretty easy for the kid.

2008 Outlook: Jones will turn 24 in December so he still has some time. Right now, I just don't see a lot of playing time available unless Bobby wants to platoon Diaz yet again with a new guy, this time the left-hand hitting Jones. Seems kind of dumb considering Diaz's last two seasons. If he is not traded this offseason, and I believe the chance is pretty high, Jones will probably fine-tune his game with Richmond next year, at least early on, giving the Braves a backup plan in case of injury.

Chipper Jones
-No matter how you slice it, Chipper Jones had an amazing 2007 campaign. An MVP calibar one. His .340 EQA ranked second in his career and his adjusted WARP's were the best he has ever had. He even reached 600 PA for the first time since 2003, which was the last year he reached the celebrated 100 R/100 RBI plateaus that he also reached this year. The 42 doubles were a new high and he walked more than he struck out for the eighth time in his career. His second place finish for the batting title got all the press, but for the first time in his career, he had the highest OPS in the league. Had he played just a bit more and the Braves been a bit more competitive, Chipper may have won his second MVP. All this...for $11M. Not too shabby.

2008 Outlook: It all comes down to health for Chipper because he remains one of the best hitters in the game. His career OPS is the tenth best active OPS. Defensively, he had one of his best years (though his range has gotten noticeably worse than it was and it never was that good). If healthy, Chipper is a candidate for any hitting award in the majors. I expect more of the same myself. 140ish games, incredible hitting, weaker defense. We're stuck with his defense so if he can do the Vinny Castilla thing (no range, but play everything you get to pretty well), he won't be too much of a problem.

Chipper's Historic Company

Provided he stays healthy, Chipper Jones can join some pretty elite company this year. 1250 runs scored, 2000 hits, 400 doubles, 400 HR, 1250 RBIs, and a .300 AVG. Here is a run down of people who have done the same thing:

Hank Aaron
Babe Ruth
Willie Mays
Jimmie Foxx
Ted Williams
Ernie Banks
Mel Ott
Lou Gehrig
Stan Musial

Active players who have reached this feat include Frank Thomas and Manny Ramirez. Barry Bonds is on the cusp of joining this group. He needs to get AVG back to .300 as it is .001 short entering Wednesday's action. Alex Rodriguez is 28 doubles away.

I mention this because during tonight's broadcast, Steve Phillips or Orel Hershiser used the term "borderline" to describe Chipper Jones' Hall of Fame chances. All of those names that have retired have one thing in common. They have a Cooperstown bust. Only eleven players in the history of baseball have done the things Chipper has a very good chance of getting to this year. The only questionable one for him to reach this year is homeruns. He is sitting on 367, four away from the Atlanta Brave record since the franchise's move to deep south. He is sitting at 33 homers away and therefore and already has ten. He has only hit more than 40 homeruns once, his MVP season.

Though, if he stays healthy, I think he gets there. When he joins that elite company at 35, I think you stamp his trip to the Hall.