The Braves continue to drift along, a game under .500, and without much (get ready, Joe Morgan) consistency. However, when you look at the injuries, poor play, and lack of real definitions in the bullpen, the fact that the Braves aren't four or five games under .500 is a damn accomplishment.
Chipper Jones is having an absolutely amazing start to the season, batting .421/.471/.692. Apparently, all that talk about Teix having such a big impact on him is true. The double play combo of Yuniel "Mr. Dynamic" Escobar and Kelly Johnson has been decent and once KJ starts to hit his stride for more than a few games, it will take off. Teix has been taking off of late, too, and McCann looks a lot more like 2006 Super Mac than 2007 Fairly Decent Mac. Francoeur has been doubling like crazy (11 already) and Kotsay hasn't sucked (so that's a win). Diaz isn't doing that bat, but Gregor Blanco is hitting well enough to snake some at-bats from him.
The offense has all continues to rank in the top five in AVG, OBP, and SLG, yet only eighth in runs scored. Something is amiss here and I believe the runs scored will increase with time.
The team ERA is second in the NL at 3.46, which is pretty amazing and probably not going to last. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens have been amazing, but John Smoltz is hurt and likely to go to the bullpen rather than stick in the rotation when he returns. Jo-Jo Reyes had five good innings last night, but struggled in the sixth. However, the pen has been surprisingly solid considering its missing Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Mike Gonzalez. Possibly Tom Glavine can find himself with a solid game today.
Truth be told, the stats like this team. The expected record is 18-11, a good four games better than their actual record. If they were 18-11, they would be in the driver's seat in the NL East. Luckily, the Phils and Mets aren't off to stellar starts either because the Braves trail the East by a mere two games.
-Elsewhere, Mike Hampton considered retirement after his latest setback. I think I speak for most Braves fans when I say...please do. I'm sorry, Hambone, but it's annoying to even have you around.
-Brent Lillibridge's struggles at Richmond continued when he got a callup and went 0 for 8 with an RBI before being demoted yesterday.
-Down in Richmond, Barbaro Canizares continues to mash the ball to the tune of .337/.374/.495. He's 28 so don't get too carried away, but does only have three professional years under his belt. Neither Brandon Jones nor Scott Thorman have hit a homer, but at least BJ is starting to hit a little and has raised his AVG to .270.
-Next in line to get a shot? Charlie Morton. The Bobby Cox fav is 1-0 in six starts with a 2.14 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP.
-Picked up in the Tyler Yates deal, Todd Redmond has been a bit of a brightspot for the 9-20 Mississippi Braves. He's 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The thing that jumps out at you...26 K's, 3 BB in 36 innings.
-The team ERA for Myrtle Beach is 2.70. Of course, Thomas Hanson has been the best arm so far with a 0.79 ERA and an even better 0.71 WHIP. Looks like he'll get a callup real soon. Closer Kevin Gunderson should join him. Eight saves, an 0.71 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP.
-While the Pelicans don't hit that well, Gorkys Hernandez is tearing up Carolina League pitching so far, hitting .309/.378/.568 with 5 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HR, and 5 SB. If he can hit for some power, he might surpass Jordan Schafer. The double play combo of Tavis Jones (.099 IsoOBP, 8 steals) and Brandon Hicks (.281/.347/.578) is also coming up big early on.
-Rome is a mixed bag. Overall, the team is struggling, but Jason Heyward and Cody Johnson aren't embarrassing themselves so that's good. The pitching is good enough to compete with Scott Diamond, Eric Barrett, Jose Ortegano, and Steven Evarts all posting good numbers. Right now, they just need to get going.
Showing posts with label Thor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thor. Show all posts
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Thor on the way out?
Thor is like my last corkscrew swinger left so that would be weird, but anyway, it appears the Braves are shopping the Canadian to anyone willing to listen. Manitoba might be. Shanks and DOB both report, according to MLBTR that Thor is being shopped for a reliever. Here is your team-by-team look.
Arizona - Little Chance - Conor Jackson is very much in the same mold except he's actually producing. What Jackson produced last year is similar to Thor's minor league production.
Baltimore - Pretty Decent Chance - Likely to start at first for the O's is Kevin Millar, who was hardly that productive last year. The O's need youth and potential, which makes it also tough for them to give up a decent young arm. For instance, high-end guys like Radhames Liz and Garrett Olson are pipedreams. However, James Hoey might be a possible target. His major league numbers are pretty bad, but his minors aren't that shabby.
Boston - No Chance - They already have the Greek God of Walks and Casey at the Bat, not to mention Big Papi.
Chi Cubs - No Chance - Lee and Ward in the fold.
ChiSox - No Chance - Konerko and Thome just keep a third ugly white guy from joining the team. In a pinch, Swish has a first baseman glove.
Cincy - Little Chance - If Scott Hatteberg was hurt and Joey Votto sucked, maybe they would be interested.
Cleveland - Little Chance - The Indians have a glut of players capable of playing first, including Andy Marte. Just don't see them adding another, but stranger things have happened.
Colorado - No Chance - They already have Helton and a scramble for at-bats with Nix, Stewart, and Atkins.
Detroit - Little Chance - The Tigers have Carlos Guillen at first and Mike Hessman behind him. Thor could be useful there, but I can't see the Tigers taking the bait. They still have to find at-bats for Brandon Inge around the field/DH.
Florida - Decent Chance - I actually think Florida might be interested. Mike Jacobs has failed to reach the .800 OPS plateau each of his first two full seasons. They might be willing to go in a different direction.
Houston - No Chance - The Astros have Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum, capable backups, behind Lance Berkman.
Kansas City - Little Chance - Dayton loves former Braves farmhands, but he already has enough first baseman's to figure from. I think Ryan Shealy will get another chance.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - No Chance - Too many already.
Los Angeles Dodgers - No Chance - Loney FTW
Milwaukee - No Chance - There's this fat guy at first they like.
Minnesota - No Chance - They don't need more unproductive infielders.
New York Mets - No Chance - Technically, they could use him to backup Delgado. But, um, they wouldn't trade for Thor.
New York Yankees - Little Chance - Barring injury, they are set with Giambi at first and Damon DHing. But tomorrow could be completely different.
Oakland - Little Chance - Too many damn 1B/LF types as it is. Hey, maybe we can get Devine for Thor...
Philly - No Chance - They currently have Helms to backup Howard.
Pittsburgh - No Chance - Dammit, we shouldn't have given them LaRoche.
San Diego - No Chance - Adrian Gonzalez and Tony Clark anyone?
San Francisco - Pretty Decent Chance - The Giants are in a state of transition and you have to think San Francisco would be reasonable. Dan Ortmeier has been moved to first to compete for the spot with Rich Aurilla. Yay. Patrick Misch, a lefty, would be reasonable and probably would get a second lower minor league player. Another lefty with much higher ceiling, Jonathan Sanchez, has had injury problems. Justin Hedrick and Dave McKae wouldn't be horrible either.
Seattle - Decent Chance - Maybe Thor could push Sexson to play a little better. A young fireballer like Kameron Mickolio would definitely be reasonable to the Mariners. The M's best options are already in the bigs and likely to be tough to get. Ryan Rowland-Smith wouldn't be too terrible.
St. Louis - No Chance - They have some guy named Pujols...
Tampa Bay - Little Chance - If they didn't have such a tough time finding at-bats for everyone already on the team, I would think they would be willing to go after Thor.
Texas - Decent Chance - Ben Broussard is their frontrunner with Salty maybe getting a game or two a week there. Teix's former team could use Teix's current backup. Eric Hurley, A.J. Murray, and Daniel Herrera would all be decent finds for Thor.
Toronto - Little Chance - Lyle Overbay is a good player and AL teams struggle to add a straight backup to the team at first, but the Blue Jays might want the Canadian.
Washington - No Chance - As much as the Nats love the Braves' trash, first base is one of their positions of strength. Well, as much strength as Dimitri Young and Nick Johnson present.
Arizona - Little Chance - Conor Jackson is very much in the same mold except he's actually producing. What Jackson produced last year is similar to Thor's minor league production.
Baltimore - Pretty Decent Chance - Likely to start at first for the O's is Kevin Millar, who was hardly that productive last year. The O's need youth and potential, which makes it also tough for them to give up a decent young arm. For instance, high-end guys like Radhames Liz and Garrett Olson are pipedreams. However, James Hoey might be a possible target. His major league numbers are pretty bad, but his minors aren't that shabby.
Boston - No Chance - They already have the Greek God of Walks and Casey at the Bat, not to mention Big Papi.
Chi Cubs - No Chance - Lee and Ward in the fold.
ChiSox - No Chance - Konerko and Thome just keep a third ugly white guy from joining the team. In a pinch, Swish has a first baseman glove.
Cincy - Little Chance - If Scott Hatteberg was hurt and Joey Votto sucked, maybe they would be interested.
Cleveland - Little Chance - The Indians have a glut of players capable of playing first, including Andy Marte. Just don't see them adding another, but stranger things have happened.
Colorado - No Chance - They already have Helton and a scramble for at-bats with Nix, Stewart, and Atkins.
Detroit - Little Chance - The Tigers have Carlos Guillen at first and Mike Hessman behind him. Thor could be useful there, but I can't see the Tigers taking the bait. They still have to find at-bats for Brandon Inge around the field/DH.
Florida - Decent Chance - I actually think Florida might be interested. Mike Jacobs has failed to reach the .800 OPS plateau each of his first two full seasons. They might be willing to go in a different direction.
Houston - No Chance - The Astros have Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum, capable backups, behind Lance Berkman.
Kansas City - Little Chance - Dayton loves former Braves farmhands, but he already has enough first baseman's to figure from. I think Ryan Shealy will get another chance.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - No Chance - Too many already.
Los Angeles Dodgers - No Chance - Loney FTW
Milwaukee - No Chance - There's this fat guy at first they like.
Minnesota - No Chance - They don't need more unproductive infielders.
New York Mets - No Chance - Technically, they could use him to backup Delgado. But, um, they wouldn't trade for Thor.
New York Yankees - Little Chance - Barring injury, they are set with Giambi at first and Damon DHing. But tomorrow could be completely different.
Oakland - Little Chance - Too many damn 1B/LF types as it is. Hey, maybe we can get Devine for Thor...
Philly - No Chance - They currently have Helms to backup Howard.
Pittsburgh - No Chance - Dammit, we shouldn't have given them LaRoche.
San Diego - No Chance - Adrian Gonzalez and Tony Clark anyone?
San Francisco - Pretty Decent Chance - The Giants are in a state of transition and you have to think San Francisco would be reasonable. Dan Ortmeier has been moved to first to compete for the spot with Rich Aurilla. Yay. Patrick Misch, a lefty, would be reasonable and probably would get a second lower minor league player. Another lefty with much higher ceiling, Jonathan Sanchez, has had injury problems. Justin Hedrick and Dave McKae wouldn't be horrible either.
Seattle - Decent Chance - Maybe Thor could push Sexson to play a little better. A young fireballer like Kameron Mickolio would definitely be reasonable to the Mariners. The M's best options are already in the bigs and likely to be tough to get. Ryan Rowland-Smith wouldn't be too terrible.
St. Louis - No Chance - They have some guy named Pujols...
Tampa Bay - Little Chance - If they didn't have such a tough time finding at-bats for everyone already on the team, I would think they would be willing to go after Thor.
Texas - Decent Chance - Ben Broussard is their frontrunner with Salty maybe getting a game or two a week there. Teix's former team could use Teix's current backup. Eric Hurley, A.J. Murray, and Daniel Herrera would all be decent finds for Thor.
Toronto - Little Chance - Lyle Overbay is a good player and AL teams struggle to add a straight backup to the team at first, but the Blue Jays might want the Canadian.
Washington - No Chance - As much as the Nats love the Braves' trash, first base is one of their positions of strength. Well, as much strength as Dimitri Young and Nick Johnson present.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Strangest Stat Ever
This from the TorontoSun.com -
Ohhhh, the LAH. How the hell didn't that make it to the back of his baseball card?
Cambridge's Scott Thorman hit 11 homers for the Atlanta Braves this season and had the longest average homer in the NL at 409 feet
Ohhhh, the LAH. How the hell didn't that make it to the back of his baseball card?
Sunday, December 2, 2007
2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown Part 3
Here is the final ten of last year's top 30 prospects. Expect this year's top thirty to begin within a few days over at chopnation.com.
10. Jamie Richmond – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Here is one of the best, but not well-known stats of the year. In 67 innings, Richmond struck out 52 and (…wait for it…) walked FOUR. Let me emphasize that. For every person Jamie Richmond walked last year, he struck out 10.5 batters. Granted, he was at Danville, but still, how can you not get excited by that?
Richmond was a 31st rounder in 2004 and did not play until the following season, a likely draft-and-follow. He showed solid skills in eight games out of the bullpen for the GCL Braves, but it was this year that Richmond exploded. He also did not allow a homerun, just 51 hits, and ended the year with a 7-1 record, 1.21 ERA, and a 0.82 WHIP. It might be just one year and I might be crazy to rank Richmond this high, but he deserves with such an incredible year.
ETA: Mid 2010
Richmond is one of my favorite hurlers, though he was not as amazing this year as he was in 2006. He was one of Rome's most consistent pitchers, leading them in starts, innings, and K's. His 3.05 ERA was decent, but his 1.20 WHIP was hardly anything to write home about. Obviously, his K/BB ratio couldn't be as good, but 98 K's to just 25 walks is not a bad thing. I think he can rebound to have an even bigger year and my disappointment over what is considered a pretty decent year speaks well of what I expect out of Richmond.
9. Neftali Feliz – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 18…Ranked eighth in Baseball America’s Gulf Coast League rankings, Feliz is getting more and more press seemingly every time someone posts a Top Braves prospect list. My rankings will be no different. While the Dominican reportedly has a wild delivery, if he stays healthy, he could be special.
In his first professional season, he tossed 29 homerless innings, striking out 42. The 14 walks and four wild pitches show a hurler needing a little harnessing, but nothing too out of the ordinary. He received equal time as a reliever and a starter so it is unknown where the Braves ultimately see him, but with time, he could be the next Jose Capellan (a phenom) or something even better.
ETA: Early 2011
Feliz remains a big-time arm in need of sculpting, but it will not be done with the Braves. He played very well with Danville until he was included in the Mark Teixeria deal. Texas pushed him to get a taste of A-ball and his numbers were not quite as good.
8. Van Pope – Third Base – Age: 23…Pope has quietly been a solid player for the Braves since they selected him in the 2004 draft in the fifth round. Last year with Myrtle Beach, he showed impressive power despite playing with the Pelicans as he pitched in 31 doubles and 15 homeruns. If that was not enough, he added a .090 IsoOBP.
With Eric Campbell in the system, it is understandable why Pope has received so little press. However, Pope has a pretty good chance of succeeding Chipper Jones in the future. He is also an excellent defender and that will be welcomed after watching Jones’s slow reaction time. Recently, Pope made the Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospects forn the Braves organization and provided he performs well at Mississippi, he could be knocking on the door pretty soon. I look for him to get some experience at first base to add some versatility.
ETA: Early 2009
Pope was extremly solid in 2006, but was abysmal last season. He remains one of the best infield defenders in the organization, but his time as a pretty good prospect is dwindling. Last year with Mississippi, Pope failed to secure a .300 OBP and OPS'd .638. While there are few third base prospects close to the majors to push him, his bat, which was always a question mark, will need to be much better next year.
7. Scott Thorman – First Base/Outfield – Age: 25…The only thing Scott Robert Thorman has done since he was drafted with the 30th overall selection in 2000 is hit. While his numbers do not stand up to some of the big-time first base prospects in the game, considering the pitcher-friendly parks he has called home during his ride up the minor league system, I believe we have yet to see the best he can provide.
Thorman got his first shot at major league pitching this year and was immediately thrust into the third spot in the Braves order for a time. The first person he faced? Curt Schilling. Welcome to the big leagues. All in all, Thorman showed explosive power (16 of his 30 hits went for extra bases), but struggled with consistent contact, showing little of his decent plate discipline. Ultimately, I see Thorman settling into a very Adam LaRoche-like offensive profile. His best power seasons have come in the past two years so he still may have some power he has yet to take advantage of.
ETA: Early 2007
Well, we all know how Thor's 2007 went. After essentially being given the lionshare of first base duties, the beast from Canada flopped. He continued to show explosive power, but he rarely hit the ball. Finally, the Braves acquired Teix and Thor spent the final two months as a bat off the bench. He could continue to be that, but his lack of verstility on the bench could be a problem. I believe he will be traded sometime.
6. Joey Devine – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 23…Not every college reliever is built the same. The Braves were tempted by bad pitching in their own bullpen, excellent minor league numbers by Devine, and success stories like Huston Street and thrust Devine into a significant role in their bullpen in 2005. It did not go too well, I am afraid. Everyone knows about the two Grand Slams he gave up in his first two games. In addition, he gave up Chris Burke’s 18th inning homerun to end the Braves season. Last year, he looked stellar in spring training, though late struggles had him headed to Richmond, which was the right idea. Injuries prompted a call-up that produced little success and injuries of his own quickly followed. In September, Devine was used as a situational righty (a ROOGY?) to moderate promise.
That is all things we know right now. Where Devine goes from here is still to be decided. The former Wolfpack member from NC State has a great arm. He reminds me of Tim Spooneybarger in the sense that he has great natural movement. Talent wise, Devine could be anything from a great setup reliever to a shutdown closer. Will he get there? Probably not next year, but I think he will eventually get it together as long as Atlanta treads softly.
ETA: Mid 2007
Devine finally started to put it together as he was healthy and effective for the entire 2007 campaign. He finished fourth in the Southern League in saves with 16 in 33 games. He was also on the Ascanio/Devine shuttle between Mississippi and Atlanta where each pitcher would get a game or two in the majors before getting demoted again. He added to his resume with an impressive 17 games with the eventual International League champs, Richmond. His control remained problematic in the majors, but he was much more confident in ten outings. Out of options, Devine's time to shine is now.
5. Brandon Jones – Outfield – Age: 23…In the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, they basically killed off “draft-and-follow” players, or players that are drafted, play a season at a junior college or whatever, and then the team re-evaluates if they want to sign him or if the player wants to re-enter the draft. Jones was one of those players and was a big find for the Braves after he was selected in the 23rd round. In three years since he signed merely days before the 2004 draft, he has handled himself to the tune of a .819 OPS.
Jones has not played a full season in any year (signing late and injuries played their part), but after 58 games with Myrtle Beach this year, he was promoted to Mississippi and actually hit better than he had at the Beach, showing off a .477 SLG power and a .273 batting average. His projections vary, but I see him along the lines of 20-25 HR, solid contact skills, and generally a good hitter. Maybe not an All-Star, but a guy who keeps a position from being a weakness.
ETA: Early 2009
Like many of the players who had Mississippi dominating the first half, Jones earned promotions the rest of the year and even got a chance in the majors in September. In a season that saw the Braves trade many of their top prospects and other top prospects regressed, Jones flourished for the Braves, hitting a combined .295/.367/.490 with 19 homers and 100 RBIs for Mississippi and Richmond. That 100 RBIs was best in the organization. He went 2-for-19 in the majors with a double, but has a good chance of competing for a job in the spring.
4. Eric Campbell – Third Base – Age: 21…In 2005, Campbell, the former second rounder from Indiana, showed why the Braves selected him as high as they did for he took home just about every conceivable honor for his success at advanced rookie level Danville. Last year, he was almost as impressive, hitting .296 with a .517 SLG. Adding to that, he stole 18 bases and mashed 22 homeruns for Rome.
Where Campbell will play is up for debate. Most believe he will be moved to second and become the long-term answer at that position, opening third base for Van Pope. His experience at second in the Hawaii Winter League gives credence to that. Campbell is a hacker like Jeff Francoeur, but seems to make more contact, striking out in just 15% of his at-bats while playing most of 2006 at a younger-than-average age for his level. Keep an eye on Campbell. He could be fast tracked if he handles Myrtle Beach.
ETA: Late 2008/Early 2009
Spoiler alert - none of the top four in this list will be in the 2007 top ten. The top three were all traded, but Campbell's attitude and regression as a player was his biggest fault. He batted .221/.312/.406 in 81 injury-and-suspension hurt games for Myrtle Beach. The walks, 36, were a new personal high and he showed enough power, but simply sucked. He will need a major bounceback year to remain in the Braves plans.
3. Matt Harrison – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Matt Harrison has a real shot of making some moves in the organization as soon as this season. Since he was selected with the 97th choice in 2003, all Harrison has done is become more and more impressive. While with Danville in 2004, he gave up nearly ten hits per nine innings, yet considering his age of 18, even keeping the hits per nine innings fewer than ten was impressive. He came onto the map while again playing under the average age of the league the following season, going 12-7 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Last year, between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, he again kept performing at a high level.
If Harrison does have any problems it is the fact he gives up a good amount of homeruns considering the parks he has played in. But because he walks under two per nine innings and has a career WHIP of 1.17, he can give up 35 homeruns a year and still be a leader on the staff. Harrison is the one serious pitching prospect the Braves currently have in their system. If labels make you happy, Harrison could become a number two starter in the upcoming years.
ETA: Late 2007/Early 2008
My favorite Braves pitching prospect is no more after he was included in the Teix trade. Harrison dealt with injuries and was not as effective as he was the previous year, posting a 1.30 WHIP. The addition of Beau Jones to the trade was said to be a little backup in case Harrison was not able to stay healthy. He was named one of the Arizona Fall League's top 22 players to finish the year however.
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Catcher – Age: 21…With Salty, his 2006 season needs to be taken into context. He suffered from a wrist injury and considering the fact he turned 21 last May, he was pretty young to play in the Southern League. Whether or not he repeats the level next year, Salty still remains among the crème of the crop as far as prospects go in the organization and one of the top three catcher prospects in the minor leagues. His power struggled last year, but he showed explosive power with Myrtle Beach in 2005. Posting a .200 IsoSLG while playing half of your games in that pitcher’s paradise is astonishing.
Salty has the potential to be the best power hitter the Braves have developed in a decade. His plate discipline is incredible and he is able to rebound as he should, Salty will once again re-establish himself as one of the best prospects in baseball. However, will he go the Andy Marte way and find himself traded or will he be moved to a position so the Braves can get him into the lineup? Hopefully, the latter.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008
What is there that needs to be said about Salty? After absolutely crushing the Southern League for a month, Salty was promoted to the majors and held his own. Over his next 44 games, Salty hit .284/.333/.411 and showed a strong throwing arm. Saldy, the Teix trade gobbled him up, too. He hit for more power with Texas, but his AVG/OBP slumped. I still think he will be a yearly .900 OPS guy within 2-3 years.
1. Elvis Andrus – Shortstop – Age: 18…Elvis may be the most popular Braves prospect right now and when you are already playing A-ball at 18, you should be pretty popular. In fact, he did not turn 18 until late August so he spent most of the season at 17. Still, he hit .265. Andrus is most definitely for real.
It is hard to project Andrus so I will say this. He has the potential to be the best the shortstop in Braves history. Too much? When you take into account his age, his relative success, and the fact that scouts love his possibilities, I have to believe that once he develops a little more, both physically and mentally, he is going to be a consistent force for years to come.
For me to rank him this high took a lot of convincing because he does not have the resumes that Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia easily present. However, there is not a Brave in the system right now that I believe can be Andrus’ equal in the terms of what he can do. Whether or not he actually does…well, that is why they play the games, correct?
ETA: Early 2010
It still amazes me what Teix cost the Braves. My top three prospects from last year, not to mention my #9. Andrus turned 19 in late August and finished strong to go with his birthday as he hit .300/.369/.373 after the trade. He was on his way to losing the number one slot in this organization before the trade as he hit .244/.330/.335 with Myrtle Beach. Just the same, there is a lot to be excited about with Andrus and he too was part of the Top 22 AFL players this year.
10. Jamie Richmond – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Here is one of the best, but not well-known stats of the year. In 67 innings, Richmond struck out 52 and (…wait for it…) walked FOUR. Let me emphasize that. For every person Jamie Richmond walked last year, he struck out 10.5 batters. Granted, he was at Danville, but still, how can you not get excited by that?
Richmond was a 31st rounder in 2004 and did not play until the following season, a likely draft-and-follow. He showed solid skills in eight games out of the bullpen for the GCL Braves, but it was this year that Richmond exploded. He also did not allow a homerun, just 51 hits, and ended the year with a 7-1 record, 1.21 ERA, and a 0.82 WHIP. It might be just one year and I might be crazy to rank Richmond this high, but he deserves with such an incredible year.
ETA: Mid 2010
Richmond is one of my favorite hurlers, though he was not as amazing this year as he was in 2006. He was one of Rome's most consistent pitchers, leading them in starts, innings, and K's. His 3.05 ERA was decent, but his 1.20 WHIP was hardly anything to write home about. Obviously, his K/BB ratio couldn't be as good, but 98 K's to just 25 walks is not a bad thing. I think he can rebound to have an even bigger year and my disappointment over what is considered a pretty decent year speaks well of what I expect out of Richmond.
9. Neftali Feliz – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 18…Ranked eighth in Baseball America’s Gulf Coast League rankings, Feliz is getting more and more press seemingly every time someone posts a Top Braves prospect list. My rankings will be no different. While the Dominican reportedly has a wild delivery, if he stays healthy, he could be special.
In his first professional season, he tossed 29 homerless innings, striking out 42. The 14 walks and four wild pitches show a hurler needing a little harnessing, but nothing too out of the ordinary. He received equal time as a reliever and a starter so it is unknown where the Braves ultimately see him, but with time, he could be the next Jose Capellan (a phenom) or something even better.
ETA: Early 2011
Feliz remains a big-time arm in need of sculpting, but it will not be done with the Braves. He played very well with Danville until he was included in the Mark Teixeria deal. Texas pushed him to get a taste of A-ball and his numbers were not quite as good.
8. Van Pope – Third Base – Age: 23…Pope has quietly been a solid player for the Braves since they selected him in the 2004 draft in the fifth round. Last year with Myrtle Beach, he showed impressive power despite playing with the Pelicans as he pitched in 31 doubles and 15 homeruns. If that was not enough, he added a .090 IsoOBP.
With Eric Campbell in the system, it is understandable why Pope has received so little press. However, Pope has a pretty good chance of succeeding Chipper Jones in the future. He is also an excellent defender and that will be welcomed after watching Jones’s slow reaction time. Recently, Pope made the Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospects forn the Braves organization and provided he performs well at Mississippi, he could be knocking on the door pretty soon. I look for him to get some experience at first base to add some versatility.
ETA: Early 2009
Pope was extremly solid in 2006, but was abysmal last season. He remains one of the best infield defenders in the organization, but his time as a pretty good prospect is dwindling. Last year with Mississippi, Pope failed to secure a .300 OBP and OPS'd .638. While there are few third base prospects close to the majors to push him, his bat, which was always a question mark, will need to be much better next year.
7. Scott Thorman – First Base/Outfield – Age: 25…The only thing Scott Robert Thorman has done since he was drafted with the 30th overall selection in 2000 is hit. While his numbers do not stand up to some of the big-time first base prospects in the game, considering the pitcher-friendly parks he has called home during his ride up the minor league system, I believe we have yet to see the best he can provide.
Thorman got his first shot at major league pitching this year and was immediately thrust into the third spot in the Braves order for a time. The first person he faced? Curt Schilling. Welcome to the big leagues. All in all, Thorman showed explosive power (16 of his 30 hits went for extra bases), but struggled with consistent contact, showing little of his decent plate discipline. Ultimately, I see Thorman settling into a very Adam LaRoche-like offensive profile. His best power seasons have come in the past two years so he still may have some power he has yet to take advantage of.
ETA: Early 2007
Well, we all know how Thor's 2007 went. After essentially being given the lionshare of first base duties, the beast from Canada flopped. He continued to show explosive power, but he rarely hit the ball. Finally, the Braves acquired Teix and Thor spent the final two months as a bat off the bench. He could continue to be that, but his lack of verstility on the bench could be a problem. I believe he will be traded sometime.
6. Joey Devine – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 23…Not every college reliever is built the same. The Braves were tempted by bad pitching in their own bullpen, excellent minor league numbers by Devine, and success stories like Huston Street and thrust Devine into a significant role in their bullpen in 2005. It did not go too well, I am afraid. Everyone knows about the two Grand Slams he gave up in his first two games. In addition, he gave up Chris Burke’s 18th inning homerun to end the Braves season. Last year, he looked stellar in spring training, though late struggles had him headed to Richmond, which was the right idea. Injuries prompted a call-up that produced little success and injuries of his own quickly followed. In September, Devine was used as a situational righty (a ROOGY?) to moderate promise.
That is all things we know right now. Where Devine goes from here is still to be decided. The former Wolfpack member from NC State has a great arm. He reminds me of Tim Spooneybarger in the sense that he has great natural movement. Talent wise, Devine could be anything from a great setup reliever to a shutdown closer. Will he get there? Probably not next year, but I think he will eventually get it together as long as Atlanta treads softly.
ETA: Mid 2007
Devine finally started to put it together as he was healthy and effective for the entire 2007 campaign. He finished fourth in the Southern League in saves with 16 in 33 games. He was also on the Ascanio/Devine shuttle between Mississippi and Atlanta where each pitcher would get a game or two in the majors before getting demoted again. He added to his resume with an impressive 17 games with the eventual International League champs, Richmond. His control remained problematic in the majors, but he was much more confident in ten outings. Out of options, Devine's time to shine is now.
5. Brandon Jones – Outfield – Age: 23…In the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, they basically killed off “draft-and-follow” players, or players that are drafted, play a season at a junior college or whatever, and then the team re-evaluates if they want to sign him or if the player wants to re-enter the draft. Jones was one of those players and was a big find for the Braves after he was selected in the 23rd round. In three years since he signed merely days before the 2004 draft, he has handled himself to the tune of a .819 OPS.
Jones has not played a full season in any year (signing late and injuries played their part), but after 58 games with Myrtle Beach this year, he was promoted to Mississippi and actually hit better than he had at the Beach, showing off a .477 SLG power and a .273 batting average. His projections vary, but I see him along the lines of 20-25 HR, solid contact skills, and generally a good hitter. Maybe not an All-Star, but a guy who keeps a position from being a weakness.
ETA: Early 2009
Like many of the players who had Mississippi dominating the first half, Jones earned promotions the rest of the year and even got a chance in the majors in September. In a season that saw the Braves trade many of their top prospects and other top prospects regressed, Jones flourished for the Braves, hitting a combined .295/.367/.490 with 19 homers and 100 RBIs for Mississippi and Richmond. That 100 RBIs was best in the organization. He went 2-for-19 in the majors with a double, but has a good chance of competing for a job in the spring.
4. Eric Campbell – Third Base – Age: 21…In 2005, Campbell, the former second rounder from Indiana, showed why the Braves selected him as high as they did for he took home just about every conceivable honor for his success at advanced rookie level Danville. Last year, he was almost as impressive, hitting .296 with a .517 SLG. Adding to that, he stole 18 bases and mashed 22 homeruns for Rome.
Where Campbell will play is up for debate. Most believe he will be moved to second and become the long-term answer at that position, opening third base for Van Pope. His experience at second in the Hawaii Winter League gives credence to that. Campbell is a hacker like Jeff Francoeur, but seems to make more contact, striking out in just 15% of his at-bats while playing most of 2006 at a younger-than-average age for his level. Keep an eye on Campbell. He could be fast tracked if he handles Myrtle Beach.
ETA: Late 2008/Early 2009
Spoiler alert - none of the top four in this list will be in the 2007 top ten. The top three were all traded, but Campbell's attitude and regression as a player was his biggest fault. He batted .221/.312/.406 in 81 injury-and-suspension hurt games for Myrtle Beach. The walks, 36, were a new personal high and he showed enough power, but simply sucked. He will need a major bounceback year to remain in the Braves plans.
3. Matt Harrison – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Matt Harrison has a real shot of making some moves in the organization as soon as this season. Since he was selected with the 97th choice in 2003, all Harrison has done is become more and more impressive. While with Danville in 2004, he gave up nearly ten hits per nine innings, yet considering his age of 18, even keeping the hits per nine innings fewer than ten was impressive. He came onto the map while again playing under the average age of the league the following season, going 12-7 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Last year, between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, he again kept performing at a high level.
If Harrison does have any problems it is the fact he gives up a good amount of homeruns considering the parks he has played in. But because he walks under two per nine innings and has a career WHIP of 1.17, he can give up 35 homeruns a year and still be a leader on the staff. Harrison is the one serious pitching prospect the Braves currently have in their system. If labels make you happy, Harrison could become a number two starter in the upcoming years.
ETA: Late 2007/Early 2008
My favorite Braves pitching prospect is no more after he was included in the Teix trade. Harrison dealt with injuries and was not as effective as he was the previous year, posting a 1.30 WHIP. The addition of Beau Jones to the trade was said to be a little backup in case Harrison was not able to stay healthy. He was named one of the Arizona Fall League's top 22 players to finish the year however.
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Catcher – Age: 21…With Salty, his 2006 season needs to be taken into context. He suffered from a wrist injury and considering the fact he turned 21 last May, he was pretty young to play in the Southern League. Whether or not he repeats the level next year, Salty still remains among the crème of the crop as far as prospects go in the organization and one of the top three catcher prospects in the minor leagues. His power struggled last year, but he showed explosive power with Myrtle Beach in 2005. Posting a .200 IsoSLG while playing half of your games in that pitcher’s paradise is astonishing.
Salty has the potential to be the best power hitter the Braves have developed in a decade. His plate discipline is incredible and he is able to rebound as he should, Salty will once again re-establish himself as one of the best prospects in baseball. However, will he go the Andy Marte way and find himself traded or will he be moved to a position so the Braves can get him into the lineup? Hopefully, the latter.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008
What is there that needs to be said about Salty? After absolutely crushing the Southern League for a month, Salty was promoted to the majors and held his own. Over his next 44 games, Salty hit .284/.333/.411 and showed a strong throwing arm. Saldy, the Teix trade gobbled him up, too. He hit for more power with Texas, but his AVG/OBP slumped. I still think he will be a yearly .900 OPS guy within 2-3 years.
1. Elvis Andrus – Shortstop – Age: 18…Elvis may be the most popular Braves prospect right now and when you are already playing A-ball at 18, you should be pretty popular. In fact, he did not turn 18 until late August so he spent most of the season at 17. Still, he hit .265. Andrus is most definitely for real.
It is hard to project Andrus so I will say this. He has the potential to be the best the shortstop in Braves history. Too much? When you take into account his age, his relative success, and the fact that scouts love his possibilities, I have to believe that once he develops a little more, both physically and mentally, he is going to be a consistent force for years to come.
For me to rank him this high took a lot of convincing because he does not have the resumes that Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia easily present. However, there is not a Brave in the system right now that I believe can be Andrus’ equal in the terms of what he can do. Whether or not he actually does…well, that is why they play the games, correct?
ETA: Early 2010
It still amazes me what Teix cost the Braves. My top three prospects from last year, not to mention my #9. Andrus turned 19 in late August and finished strong to go with his birthday as he hit .300/.369/.373 after the trade. He was on his way to losing the number one slot in this organization before the trade as he hit .244/.330/.335 with Myrtle Beach. Just the same, there is a lot to be excited about with Andrus and he too was part of the Top 22 AFL players this year.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
A-Z Reviews: T
No pictures...just trying to get through the reviews. Also wanna write about the Villy/Anderson deal. Anywho...
Mark Teixeira
-Teix was acquired at the deadline in a six-player trade that included three of the top five prospects in the system. It was a shrewd trade by a possibly desperate John Schuerholz. I felt the deal would give the Braves 3-4 extra wins than they would have had otherwise. Instead, the Braves finished a game over .500 for the final two months after being five over .500 the first four months. Nevertheless, the deal turned the Braves offense into a force and had the pitching been addressed at all, the Braves would have won more games because despite 160 runs in August, a monthly high, they allowed 148, also a monthly high. In general, Teix was everything we expected.
2008 Outlook: Teix's contract situation aside, he is a tremendous hitter. Over the past four years, his EQA has not drifted under .285 and he is good for 6-8 wins above a replacement player. Put that in perspective. Because Teix is a 1B, a traditional power hitting position with some of the best hitters in the game, Teix has to be that much better to be worth so many more wins. I felt his 1B play was an improvement, but he's not an incredible defender or anything - just pretty good. It will be unfortunate if the Braves get a year and a half out of Teix, but that will be an awesome year and a half provided he stays healthy.
Scott Thorman
-Teix replaced Thorman in a sense, but Thor had been replaced slightly before the trading deadline by Julio Franco. Odd because he was having some of his best success in July. However, he struggled down the stretch and would have been cut if he wasn't out of options. As the year came to a close, he was looking at a .216 year with just 14 walks. He showed explosive power (11 HR, 18 2B, .178 ISO), but never looked comfortable this year.
2008 Outlook: Not quite sure what to think about with Thor. His minor league career is hardly some shining example of prospect city. .276/.342/.452. He has looked pretty horrible with Atlanta since his callup in 2006. It might be time to cut bait if a trade can benefit the Braves. Otherwise, hold on to him for some power off the bench and a LH bat for 1B/LF. Still, he was probably at best a stopgap. Now...he's a man searching for a chance. He apparently is having a nice winter in Mexico so maybe he can increase his trade value.
Mark Teixeira
-Teix was acquired at the deadline in a six-player trade that included three of the top five prospects in the system. It was a shrewd trade by a possibly desperate John Schuerholz. I felt the deal would give the Braves 3-4 extra wins than they would have had otherwise. Instead, the Braves finished a game over .500 for the final two months after being five over .500 the first four months. Nevertheless, the deal turned the Braves offense into a force and had the pitching been addressed at all, the Braves would have won more games because despite 160 runs in August, a monthly high, they allowed 148, also a monthly high. In general, Teix was everything we expected.
2008 Outlook: Teix's contract situation aside, he is a tremendous hitter. Over the past four years, his EQA has not drifted under .285 and he is good for 6-8 wins above a replacement player. Put that in perspective. Because Teix is a 1B, a traditional power hitting position with some of the best hitters in the game, Teix has to be that much better to be worth so many more wins. I felt his 1B play was an improvement, but he's not an incredible defender or anything - just pretty good. It will be unfortunate if the Braves get a year and a half out of Teix, but that will be an awesome year and a half provided he stays healthy.
Scott Thorman
-Teix replaced Thorman in a sense, but Thor had been replaced slightly before the trading deadline by Julio Franco. Odd because he was having some of his best success in July. However, he struggled down the stretch and would have been cut if he wasn't out of options. As the year came to a close, he was looking at a .216 year with just 14 walks. He showed explosive power (11 HR, 18 2B, .178 ISO), but never looked comfortable this year.
2008 Outlook: Not quite sure what to think about with Thor. His minor league career is hardly some shining example of prospect city. .276/.342/.452. He has looked pretty horrible with Atlanta since his callup in 2006. It might be time to cut bait if a trade can benefit the Braves. Otherwise, hold on to him for some power off the bench and a LH bat for 1B/LF. Still, he was probably at best a stopgap. Now...he's a man searching for a chance. He apparently is having a nice winter in Mexico so maybe he can increase his trade value.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Tangotiger's Defensive Rankings
Tangotiger is one of the most well-respected figures in the stats/sabermetrics scene. In August of 2007, he put the ballots out for fan-scounting reports on defensive players. Here is the result.
My thoughts...the league average in agreement level is .71. Of the 16 players who were looked at, 11 were given a reasonable agreement level. I'm going to look at the handful that weren't.
Ryan Langerhans - .64 aggreement - Langer is an interesting case. Defensively, he looks extremely solid, but his defensive metrics have never been that wonderful. Of criticism seems to be his throws - every step of them. Range-wise, he seems to have it down pat and has great instincts, but while he doesn't have a Juan Pierre noodle arm, he doesn't have a great one either.
Chipper Jones - .59 agreement - For Chipper, it's always been the old debate that we see with our own eyes. He does one thing particularly well, or so it seems. He can charge the bouncer and make an accurate throw. This much appears true. And his instincts, possibly the reason he started at shortstop and stayed there for so long, are solid. He just has slow reaction time. I've heard anywhere between "horrible" to "Gold Glove calibar" defense when describing Chipper this year. I think he's a bit below-average, but he was as good this year as he has been in some time. Still believe he's more of a Vinny Castilla type, though.
Chris Woodward - .53 agreement - Talk about a guy who doesn't really do anything well. They grade Woody at third, but you can essentially grade him the same at any position. I have never seen a former shortstop turned utility man who can't play any position with any sort of talent. Usually, they were playing short for a reason. Not Woody. He was horrid. What was there not to agree with? Maybe some felt he sucked even more.
Julio Franco - .62 agreement - Juliold is the kind of guy who is well valued by his manager and talked up too much. If you ever watch Julio attempt to field, one thought goes through your head. "This is why they invented the DH." When I heard people talk up his defense on his return, I was flatout shocked. Did they actually believe Julio was going to provide much of a defensive lift? Seriously, this is where the disconnect between Bobby and the fans needs to be. I'm not sure whether Cox actually believes Franco is so good defensively or he was dire need of something good to say when asked about the old man, but he sucks.
Scott Thorman - .60 agreement - In truth, I think Thor is as defensively inept as Franco. I think he displays better instincts, though I agree Franco is a better thrower and does the 3-1 throw better. Too many times, Thor was throwing it at the pitcher, not leading the pitcher.
When looking back at 2006's scouting reports, a player who saw a good amount of change was Matt Diaz. In '06, he was graded a 28. This year, a 34. While not a massive improvement, I admit, the one big thing is that his instincts were graded much higher. This allows him to take much better routes. If defense was keeping him out of the lineup, at least he is closing in the gap.
Anyway, I'll be likely working till the end of the week so I'll continue my reviews and such then.
My thoughts...the league average in agreement level is .71. Of the 16 players who were looked at, 11 were given a reasonable agreement level. I'm going to look at the handful that weren't.
Ryan Langerhans - .64 aggreement - Langer is an interesting case. Defensively, he looks extremely solid, but his defensive metrics have never been that wonderful. Of criticism seems to be his throws - every step of them. Range-wise, he seems to have it down pat and has great instincts, but while he doesn't have a Juan Pierre noodle arm, he doesn't have a great one either.
Chipper Jones - .59 agreement - For Chipper, it's always been the old debate that we see with our own eyes. He does one thing particularly well, or so it seems. He can charge the bouncer and make an accurate throw. This much appears true. And his instincts, possibly the reason he started at shortstop and stayed there for so long, are solid. He just has slow reaction time. I've heard anywhere between "horrible" to "Gold Glove calibar" defense when describing Chipper this year. I think he's a bit below-average, but he was as good this year as he has been in some time. Still believe he's more of a Vinny Castilla type, though.
Chris Woodward - .53 agreement - Talk about a guy who doesn't really do anything well. They grade Woody at third, but you can essentially grade him the same at any position. I have never seen a former shortstop turned utility man who can't play any position with any sort of talent. Usually, they were playing short for a reason. Not Woody. He was horrid. What was there not to agree with? Maybe some felt he sucked even more.
Julio Franco - .62 agreement - Juliold is the kind of guy who is well valued by his manager and talked up too much. If you ever watch Julio attempt to field, one thought goes through your head. "This is why they invented the DH." When I heard people talk up his defense on his return, I was flatout shocked. Did they actually believe Julio was going to provide much of a defensive lift? Seriously, this is where the disconnect between Bobby and the fans needs to be. I'm not sure whether Cox actually believes Franco is so good defensively or he was dire need of something good to say when asked about the old man, but he sucks.
Scott Thorman - .60 agreement - In truth, I think Thor is as defensively inept as Franco. I think he displays better instincts, though I agree Franco is a better thrower and does the 3-1 throw better. Too many times, Thor was throwing it at the pitcher, not leading the pitcher.
When looking back at 2006's scouting reports, a player who saw a good amount of change was Matt Diaz. In '06, he was graded a 28. This year, a 34. While not a massive improvement, I admit, the one big thing is that his instincts were graded much higher. This allows him to take much better routes. If defense was keeping him out of the lineup, at least he is closing in the gap.
Anyway, I'll be likely working till the end of the week so I'll continue my reviews and such then.
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