A few days ago, I looked at my rankings from last year from 21-30. Here is 11-20. Four of these guys played with the major league club last year.
20. Clint Sammons – Catcher – Age: 23…With Max Ramirez traded and Brian McCann in position to become the regular catcher for a decade, Sammons is now the top catching prospect outside of that whole Jarrod Saltalamacchia guy. Unfortunately, he has shown very little of the promise those other three did. He struggled significantly at Myrtle Beach last year and might be asked to repeat the level (especially if Saltalamacchia starts 2007 in Mississippi).
Sammons has shown some decent plate discipline and some contact skills, but next to no power. He seems to be known for his glove, though, which Baseball America classified as the best defense from a catcher in the system. A former Georgia Bulldog and graduate of Parkview High School, Sammons could be competing for a backup job with Atlanta in a few years, but is probably no better than that. Why did he make my top 20, you may be asking? Catchers will always have value.
ETA: Late 2008
With Jarrod Saltalamacchia gone, Sammons becomes the most ready catching prospect in the system and has as good of a chance as anyone right now of making next year's club as a backup. He hit well at Myrtle Beach, but struggled with Mississippi. However, he is merely a defensive catcher and got a September callup last year and started the final game.
19. Kevin Gunderson – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…The Braves are trying to carve out a niche with college relievers and a year after selecting Joey Devine and Will Startup, they took the closer of Oregon State, who won the NCAA Title last year. With the Beavers, he saved 20 games before joining the Danville Braves after the College World Series. He played just one game with them before hitting Rome, where he continued to cruise.
Gunderson lives on a fastball and a slider, neither of which will strike out a large amount of batters, but will both get the job done. He also has excellent pin-point control, allowing him to not walk batters and also keep the ball in the park. Gunderson is a true sleeper to climb the minor leagues this year. I see him as a real possibility to end the year with Richmond.
ETA: Mid 2008
Gunderson's ERA at two stops (MB and Miss.) was good, but his WHIP was horrible. The lefty will likely rejoin Mississippi to try to regroup and get back on track. Of particular concern was his control, which was rather poor. Perhaps he was hurt.
18. Jeffrey Locke – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Oh, gosh, a 4.22 ERA. He is so average! No, not exactly. While Locke’s ERA was a bit high and as were the hits allowed, the southpaw struck out 38 in 32 innings to five walks. Sounds nasty enough to make this list.
I picture Locke growing into a Macay McBride type role rather than a starter. With that said, he gave up a lot of homeruns for the Gulf Coast League (four) and will need to do a much better job. Unless he gets shifted to the pen, expect the Braves to push the New Hampshire native along slowly.
ETA: Early 2011
Locke was absolutely dominating at Danville last year, striking out 74 to just eight walks in 61 innings. The southpaw will get his first taste of fullseason ball next year, but has a great shot to rise up the prospect rankings very quickly.
17. Anthony Lerew – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 24…Lerew only seems old as a prospect, but he will be 24 for the entire 2007 season. He will enter his seventh professional season and it may be do or die time for Lerew with the organization. On the good side, he goes to battle with one of the livelier arms in the organization. On the bad side, he has yet to do much with it.
Lerew has posted a fairly boring minor league resume that got steadily worse last year as he failed miserably in his efforts to conquer AAA. In 16 games, all but one as a starter, he was ripped for a 7.48 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. The efforts had him receive a demotion to Mississippi and he looked significantly better. However, without a good season, the Braves may move on to other hurlers moving through their organization rather than keep around the Pennsylvanian who is entering his final option year.
ETA: Late 2007
Lerew had a decent go-at-it with Richmond last year and with the Braves dying for starting help, they called on Lerew. After a good start, things went downhill and he hid an injury from the Braves. Surgery will take him out and if he hopes to have an impact on the Braves, it may have to wait until 2009.
16. Steven Evarts – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 19…Unlikely to play a major role this year as the Braves will probably use him at Danville before throwing him to the wolves at Rome, but Evarts had a great start to his professional career last year. The Braves selected the Tampa, FL resident with their third first round selection and the 43rd overall. When you look at the potential the Braves drafted on the mound, there is some serious talent here. They are just a long ways away.
As for Evarts, he seems to be in the mold of many Braves pitchers before him: great control, not a strikeout pitcher, and a guy who keeps base runners allowed low through changing speeds. I actually believe he will become the best starting pitcher out of this draft, but I do not plan on seeing him anytime soon.
ETA: Early 2011
Another 2006 draftee, Evarts was another solid arm for Danville, though his innings were lower than Locke. Perhaps he was injured. If healthy, he joins other '06 arms at Rome next year to see how good they can be.
15. Chase Fontaine – Shortstop – Age: 21…What are the chances this guy has a bunch of girls after him? When you tell a girl your name is Chase Fontaine, she will sleep with you. Try it at bars. As for the real Chase Fontaine, the Braves selected him this year with their second round selection and may have gotten another future star hitter for their organization.
In 60 games with Danville, the left-hand hitting shortstop completed a solid debut season that saw him hit .296 with a .411 OBP and a .412 SLG. He struck out a few too many times (45 in 199 AB), but the walks (37) help you forget that to a degree. Could be in the top 10 of Braves prospect next year if he hits well at Rome.
ETA: Late 2009/Early 2010
I liked Fontaine a lot when the season opened, but his glove really struggled to keep up with his bat and he was moved around. In '06, he played shortstop, which increased his value. Last year, he spent most of the year at 2B and 3B and found time in the outfield. Looks like a project.
14. Dustin Evans – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…So far, he is the class of the 2006 draft in how far he has progressed. Oh, well, that says nothing because he was just drafted, but the Georgia Southern product barely spent anytime at Danville before heading to Rome, where he displayed a 1.18 WHIP, a knack for not walking batters, and a great homerun ratio.
It may be too soon to rank him this high, but the second rounder made a fan out of me through his short time and could be knocking on the door to Mississippi very soon. I think his strikeout rate (5.53 K/9) will rise into the 6.50-7.00 range and if he continues to force batters to get on base through some other way than the free pass, he might become the first player from the 2006 draft to make his major league debut in a couple of years.
ETA: Mid 2009
Drafted out of college in '06, Evans was already with Myrtle Beach last year. The results weren't pretty. A 4.70 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, medicore K/9 and K/BB rates. He will have to re-establish his value to stay above some of the '06 pitchers level-wise.
13. Kala Kaaihue – First Base – Age: 22…I will try to refrain from any Hawaiian Punch references. Kaaihue, a native of Kailua, really came onto the scene with an amazing first half of 2006 with Rome. He drilled everything he bothered to swing at and if he did not swing, most of the time he reached base anyway via a walk. After 67 games, he was hitting .329 with a .458 OBP and a .614 SLG. The Braves got the memo and promoted him.
However, he struggled with Myrtle Beach. His average slumped to .223. However, the power and eye was still there as he reached base at a .342 clip and slugged .473. He received a little action in the Hawaii Winter League and will likely head back to Myrtle Beach next year, but Kaaihue could become a serious player in the Braves future picture next year after leading the organization with 28 homeruns last year. If the average comes back up, we could be looking up at Adam Dunn. Where he will play and when he will get a chance are questions we will ask later on.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2008
Kaaihue's 2007 mirrored his 2006. He hit well at his first stop, was horrible at his second stop. He couldn't hit a beachball after getting moved up to Mississippi and his prospect status is in limbo. Kaaihue could still make some waves in the organization, but needs to hit well all season.
12. Yunel Escobar – Shortstop/Third Base – Age: 24…There are a few publications that believe Escobar has a chance to push his way into the Atlanta second base discussion this year. I am not so sure, but he has talent. Defensively, Escobar might be the best shortstop ready to possibly contribute in the major leagues within the next year and a half. Offensively, there are some good things. He nearly posted a .100 IsoOBP last year and that is definitely helpful for a lineup full of “swing first, swing second, ask questions tomorrow” hitters. He also took home the Arizona Fall League Batting Title.
Where Escobar goes from there is still to be determined. In full disclosure, I am not his biggest fan. He does not seem to have some signature ability to get on base, to hit for power, to steal bases, or to be wonderful defensively (ala Luis Hernandez). With all that said, he is still young enough to get something going and if he has a solid year in Richmond, he may become a solid tradable piece or a reason to trade Edgar Renteria.
ETA: Early 2008
Esco, Mr. Dynamic, or however you knew him, slowly made me a believer. He did becom the reason to trade Edgar Renteria as he set the major leagues on fire with his skills and instincts after being promoted. He is now in position to start at shortstop next year. What a few years for the Cuban import.
11. Jo Jo Reyes – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Selected in the second round in 2003, injuries have kept Reyes from climbing up the minor leagues faster, but he showed in 13 games with Rome what he can be. His numbers before a deserved promotion were 8-1, 2.99 ERA, 10.14 K/9, and a 1.15 WHIP. His numbers were not as impressive at Myrtle Beach, but he does not seem to have been totally overmatched.
It really is not known just what to expect out of Reyes. Like I said, injuries have kept Reyes to just 65 games in four seasons. When he was drafted, Bartolo Colon’s name was thrown about as a comparable name. If he can remain healthy, Reyes has a good chance of being a successful major leaguer.
ETA: Early 2009
He destroyed my original ETA by climbing up the ranks and passing Matt Harrison even before Harrison was traded. He headed into this offseason as the best young pitcher ready to contribute, but Jair Jurrjens has taken that from him. Still, I believe he has a good future.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Friday, November 23, 2007
A-Z Reviews: Y
Time to finish up my player reviews. 48 players down, one last player to go.
Tyler Yates
-Yatesy had moments of absolute domination. Unfortunately, none of those moments came in the second half. In 27.2 ING, he allowed 32 hits, 21 runs, four jacks, walked 14, and struck out 31. He picked up a save, but that was only because Willie Harris pwned the Mets at Shea. Otherwise, his numbers could look even worse. He was rarely called upon in September, but sucked when he did get a call. Yatesy was fairly decent in 2006, but even then, he was hardly some reliable guy.
2008 Outlook: If Yates is a Brave next year, one of two things has occured. Either Yates is a sweet talker or Yates has pictures of Frank Wren with Boy George. Barring these two things, I doubt Yates will be with the Braves when spring training opens. Yates is eligible for arbitration and if Wren wouldn't keep Villy around, why would he keep Yates?
Tyler Yates
-Yatesy had moments of absolute domination. Unfortunately, none of those moments came in the second half. In 27.2 ING, he allowed 32 hits, 21 runs, four jacks, walked 14, and struck out 31. He picked up a save, but that was only because Willie Harris pwned the Mets at Shea. Otherwise, his numbers could look even worse. He was rarely called upon in September, but sucked when he did get a call. Yatesy was fairly decent in 2006, but even then, he was hardly some reliable guy.
2008 Outlook: If Yates is a Brave next year, one of two things has occured. Either Yates is a sweet talker or Yates has pictures of Frank Wren with Boy George. Barring these two things, I doubt Yates will be with the Braves when spring training opens. Yates is eligible for arbitration and if Wren wouldn't keep Villy around, why would he keep Yates?
2006 Top 30 Prospects Rundown
As I begin to put things together for my 2007 Top 30 prospects, I figure it is time to look back at last year and where players ranked. As such, here is 21-30 from Raw Numbers #17.
30. Jose Ascanio – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Ascanio is the classic story of a great arm in need of just staying healthy. Ascanio played in just five games in 2005 and struggled greatly in 2006, yet he gets mentioned as a member on the Braves 40 man roster. Before his injury, Ascanio displayed exceptional control and a strikeout arm out of the bullpen. However, since his return, he is struggling to regain the control.
Nonetheless, I am putting him on this list out of respect and hope that the Atlanta Braves staff knows what they are doing when they take up a spot on their 40 man roster with him. That said, this is the same team that lost Adam Stern because they wanted to keep Mike Hessman. They also put Jonathan Johnson on their 40 man roster this off-season. Oh, and they signed Chris Woodward and Tanyon Sturtze. Okay, I have no idea why this guy is on the list.
ETA: Early 2009
Ascanio beat my ETA by a year-and-a-half and debuted with the Braves this year, often on the back-and-forth between the majors and minors before finding his spot. In general, he showed a great arm with a lot of stuff. The thing I mentioned being a drawback, his control, was not such a problem either. Expect a rise in this year's Top 30.
29. Will Startup – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Startup, selected four rounds after Joey Devine, was given the time Devine was not. Two years ago with Rome, he looked good over 25 games (which game him 50 on the year because he logged 25 as a Georgia Bulldog before being drafted). Last year, though, he was on fire with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi. Well, to be fair, he only played one game as a Pelican, but he struck out three in two scoreless innings so I am adding that. At Pearl, he allowed just a pair of runs in 25 innings before his promotion to Richmond.
This is where things got a little bogged down. The hits skyrocketed to more than a hit an inning while the strikeouts also took a hit. However, he pitched well down the stretch and could be in line to battle for a spot with the team this year. Startup has good enough control and should grow into a solid reliever. I rank him so low because I have heard claims of inconsistency and I am just not as convinced as others.
ETA: Mid 2007
Probably should have reached his ETA, but the higher ups kept him down before trading him with Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring. His inability to get a callup might be telling.
28. Brayan Pena – Catcher – Age: 25…The Cuban Contact Hitting Machine, Brayan Pena has logged 80 at-bats with Atlanta the last two years and seems sure to have the inside track to the backup catcher role with the big league club. A career .303 hitter in the minors, Pena lacks any kind of power and does not even show glimpses that he will grow into a power hitter. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter has never struck out more than 41 times in any given season and even swiped six (out of twelve) bases last year.
Troublesome about the catcher is his lack of plate discipline. His career high 31 was set in his first 64 games of his professional career while with Danville in 2001. He has never even come close as for as ratio of walks to plate appearances go. The other potential problem is Pena will not be mistaken for Eddie Perez or other such “defensive specialists.” With all of that said, considering his position, his contact skills, and age, Pena has the potential to be a solid backup who can step in and not be all Todd Pratt.
ETA: Early 2007
Pena got his chance and really didn't lose it, just had it taken from him. His defense seems to be a real problem.
27. Martin Prado – Second Base/Third Base – Age: 23…Nothing really stands out when it comes to Prado. He is a good hitter (.296) and decent at getting on base (.348), but nothing to write home about. He does not have a power element to add to the discussion and is also not an accomplished base stealer.
So, why does this guy have a real shot to replace Marcus Giles at second this year? Well, he is a pretty good defender and he keeps hitting. Last year, he jumped from Mississippi to Richmond to Atlanta and seemed to save his best hitting peripherals for the final trip, hitting .262 in 42 at-bats, but getting on base at a .340 clip and slugging .405. He seems to be your typical scrappy middle infielder who could surprise some people and may do so this year.
ETA: Mid 2007
He did all he could do in the spring to push KJ, but failed to secure any real playing time. He was fairly good with the team last year, though, and looks to have the inside track to a spot on the bench next year.
26. James Parr – Right Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…There are certain pitchers in the Braves system that can be classified as sleepers. Parr, a former fourth round selection, is one of those players. Parr displays great control and has put up a 1.27 WHIP during his first three professional seasons. More impressive than that is the fact he will be able to drink legally for the first time in February and has already performed well enough to deserve a promotion to AA.
I am not so sure he will actually get that promotion to start 2007 because he did have a 4.81 ERA at Myrtle Beach, but the rest of his numbers are not that concerning except a mediocre amount of homeruns surrendered. Just the same, at his age, Parr may have a chance to take some serious strides in the future.
ETA: Early-to-Mid 2009
Parr did head back to Myrtle Beach and was good enough to head to Mississippi soon after. His AA numbers were not as good, though. Seems to have a niche as a pitcher who needs time to complete each level. Could still sneak up the system next year, but his sleeper tag is beginning to fall.
25. Beau Jones – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…When he was selected out of Louisiana’s Destrehan High School, Jones had an easy time with the Gulf Coast League in 2005. The first rounder walked slightly too many batters (4.11 BB/9), but also struck out 10.54 per nine. Usually, the Braves hate to push pitchers over a level, but they felt Jones was ready for A-ball and sent him to Rome, skipping Danville. Bottom line…it did not go well.
Jones slumped to a 5.61 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and 83 walks in 110.2 innings. He did strike out 101, but you simply cannot put a little bow as trash and call it the silver lining. Jones probably needs another half-season at Rome, but he definitely has a talented arm. Hopefully, he gets going this season before he becomes a quick bust.
ETA: Early 2010
Jones found his place as a reliever with Rome last year and got enough attention to be part of the Teixiera deal in July. In the Rangers system, they put him back as a starter and he faired somewhat well.
24. Thomas Hanson – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…Perhaps one of the last draft-and-follows, Hanson was selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft and signed just before the 2006 draft. Before signing, he had no problem dominating the California junior college system. Well, the Appalachian League proved to not be much of a worry, either.
In 13 games, eight of them as a starter, Hanson gave up less than a runner an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. 56 strikeouts to 9 walks is an impressive number, especially for a young pitcher. Look for him to help solidify what should be a solid Rome Braves staff.
ETA: Late 2010
Spoiler alert, no one will make as dramatic a rise up my ranking as Hanson. I am a major fan of him. I see him possibly getting a shot in September of next year at the earliest. He may have posted the sickest 5-9 campaign last year.
23. Gregor Blanco – Outfield – Age: 23…I really have no idea what to think about with Blanco. I have this vibe that Blanco will not turn into a successful major league player, but then again, I could be (and probably will be) wrong. Last year, Blanco showed that miracles can happen and a Braves minor leaguer can post an OBP better than .400. Unfortunately, his SLG was much lower. This is not a homerun issue, but an extra-base issue in general. He simply lacks any power and only once, in 2004 with Myrtle Beach of all teams, was able to get his SLG over .400. Well, it was still .401, but still…impressive, huh?
In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Blanco has generally been a decent hitter in the terms of batting average. Last year, he set a new personal high with a .290 average between Mississippi and Richmond. Blanco reportedly possesses great speed, but is not a good base stealer. He has swiped better than 25 bases in all five of his minor league seasons, but only at a 70% clip. At the very least, the left-handed hitter could become Ryan Langerhans replacement. On the other hand, if things go his way, he could start in center in 2008 when Andruw Jones leaves.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2007
Same ole', same ole' with Blanco. He really did little to earn much support for next year as a starting candidate. Disappointing campaign to say the least.
22. Kris Medlin – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…The Braves drafted 12 pitchers out of 15 selections in the first eleven rounds and Medlin was picked up in the tenth from Santa Ana College. In 22 innings with Danville, the young righty allowed all of 14 hits, one earned run, and a pair of walks. Oh, and he struck out 36.
Medlin will likely join Rome as their primary closer and the Braves have freely shown an open attitude to pushing relievers through the system fast so Medlin could hit the fast track if he has a good half-season with the Rome Braves. But right now, he can be pretty satisfied in his 0.41 ERA.
ETA: Late 2009
Medlen (not Medlin as I repeatily misspelled it) had three stops last year so I was right on about hitting the fast track. He is due to start next year with his last stop, Mississippi. His numbers at Rome and Myrtle Beach were elite and he got a Devineish amount of grounders. He also dominated Hawaii. Could see him knock on the door for Atlanta this year.
21. Jamie Romak – Outfield – Age: 21…The Braves are really adopting an almost sabermetric point-of-view. Example: Romak. He has failed to impress at all as far as batting average is concerned. Last year, the Canadian hit .247 and has hit .233 over 209 games. Nonetheless, he has shown great plate discipline and pretty good power, especially in the ballparks he has played in. John Schuerholz = Moneyball?
These are the reasons why I put a .233 hitter in my Top 30. Maybe Romak will never hit .300, but if he hits .260 at the major league level, he will still be very valuable. Think Kelly Johnson, but more power.
ETA: Late 2009
Soon after, the Pirates loved my review that they acquired Romak in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal. He dominated in the Sally League before heading to the Carlona League where he struggled to a .863 OPS to go with his .252 AVG. I saw him with Lynchburg and he reminds me of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He has a hole in his swing, but he hits the ball very hard. The Pirates got a major power hitting project with this Canadian.
30. Jose Ascanio – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…Ascanio is the classic story of a great arm in need of just staying healthy. Ascanio played in just five games in 2005 and struggled greatly in 2006, yet he gets mentioned as a member on the Braves 40 man roster. Before his injury, Ascanio displayed exceptional control and a strikeout arm out of the bullpen. However, since his return, he is struggling to regain the control.
Nonetheless, I am putting him on this list out of respect and hope that the Atlanta Braves staff knows what they are doing when they take up a spot on their 40 man roster with him. That said, this is the same team that lost Adam Stern because they wanted to keep Mike Hessman. They also put Jonathan Johnson on their 40 man roster this off-season. Oh, and they signed Chris Woodward and Tanyon Sturtze. Okay, I have no idea why this guy is on the list.
ETA: Early 2009
Ascanio beat my ETA by a year-and-a-half and debuted with the Braves this year, often on the back-and-forth between the majors and minors before finding his spot. In general, he showed a great arm with a lot of stuff. The thing I mentioned being a drawback, his control, was not such a problem either. Expect a rise in this year's Top 30.
29. Will Startup – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 22…Startup, selected four rounds after Joey Devine, was given the time Devine was not. Two years ago with Rome, he looked good over 25 games (which game him 50 on the year because he logged 25 as a Georgia Bulldog before being drafted). Last year, though, he was on fire with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi. Well, to be fair, he only played one game as a Pelican, but he struck out three in two scoreless innings so I am adding that. At Pearl, he allowed just a pair of runs in 25 innings before his promotion to Richmond.
This is where things got a little bogged down. The hits skyrocketed to more than a hit an inning while the strikeouts also took a hit. However, he pitched well down the stretch and could be in line to battle for a spot with the team this year. Startup has good enough control and should grow into a solid reliever. I rank him so low because I have heard claims of inconsistency and I am just not as convinced as others.
ETA: Mid 2007
Probably should have reached his ETA, but the higher ups kept him down before trading him with Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring. His inability to get a callup might be telling.
28. Brayan Pena – Catcher – Age: 25…The Cuban Contact Hitting Machine, Brayan Pena has logged 80 at-bats with Atlanta the last two years and seems sure to have the inside track to the backup catcher role with the big league club. A career .303 hitter in the minors, Pena lacks any kind of power and does not even show glimpses that he will grow into a power hitter. Nonetheless, the switch-hitter has never struck out more than 41 times in any given season and even swiped six (out of twelve) bases last year.
Troublesome about the catcher is his lack of plate discipline. His career high 31 was set in his first 64 games of his professional career while with Danville in 2001. He has never even come close as for as ratio of walks to plate appearances go. The other potential problem is Pena will not be mistaken for Eddie Perez or other such “defensive specialists.” With all of that said, considering his position, his contact skills, and age, Pena has the potential to be a solid backup who can step in and not be all Todd Pratt.
ETA: Early 2007
Pena got his chance and really didn't lose it, just had it taken from him. His defense seems to be a real problem.
27. Martin Prado – Second Base/Third Base – Age: 23…Nothing really stands out when it comes to Prado. He is a good hitter (.296) and decent at getting on base (.348), but nothing to write home about. He does not have a power element to add to the discussion and is also not an accomplished base stealer.
So, why does this guy have a real shot to replace Marcus Giles at second this year? Well, he is a pretty good defender and he keeps hitting. Last year, he jumped from Mississippi to Richmond to Atlanta and seemed to save his best hitting peripherals for the final trip, hitting .262 in 42 at-bats, but getting on base at a .340 clip and slugging .405. He seems to be your typical scrappy middle infielder who could surprise some people and may do so this year.
ETA: Mid 2007
He did all he could do in the spring to push KJ, but failed to secure any real playing time. He was fairly good with the team last year, though, and looks to have the inside track to a spot on the bench next year.
26. James Parr – Right Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…There are certain pitchers in the Braves system that can be classified as sleepers. Parr, a former fourth round selection, is one of those players. Parr displays great control and has put up a 1.27 WHIP during his first three professional seasons. More impressive than that is the fact he will be able to drink legally for the first time in February and has already performed well enough to deserve a promotion to AA.
I am not so sure he will actually get that promotion to start 2007 because he did have a 4.81 ERA at Myrtle Beach, but the rest of his numbers are not that concerning except a mediocre amount of homeruns surrendered. Just the same, at his age, Parr may have a chance to take some serious strides in the future.
ETA: Early-to-Mid 2009
Parr did head back to Myrtle Beach and was good enough to head to Mississippi soon after. His AA numbers were not as good, though. Seems to have a niche as a pitcher who needs time to complete each level. Could still sneak up the system next year, but his sleeper tag is beginning to fall.
25. Beau Jones – Left-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…When he was selected out of Louisiana’s Destrehan High School, Jones had an easy time with the Gulf Coast League in 2005. The first rounder walked slightly too many batters (4.11 BB/9), but also struck out 10.54 per nine. Usually, the Braves hate to push pitchers over a level, but they felt Jones was ready for A-ball and sent him to Rome, skipping Danville. Bottom line…it did not go well.
Jones slumped to a 5.61 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and 83 walks in 110.2 innings. He did strike out 101, but you simply cannot put a little bow as trash and call it the silver lining. Jones probably needs another half-season at Rome, but he definitely has a talented arm. Hopefully, he gets going this season before he becomes a quick bust.
ETA: Early 2010
Jones found his place as a reliever with Rome last year and got enough attention to be part of the Teixiera deal in July. In the Rangers system, they put him back as a starter and he faired somewhat well.
24. Thomas Hanson – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 20…Perhaps one of the last draft-and-follows, Hanson was selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft and signed just before the 2006 draft. Before signing, he had no problem dominating the California junior college system. Well, the Appalachian League proved to not be much of a worry, either.
In 13 games, eight of them as a starter, Hanson gave up less than a runner an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. 56 strikeouts to 9 walks is an impressive number, especially for a young pitcher. Look for him to help solidify what should be a solid Rome Braves staff.
ETA: Late 2010
Spoiler alert, no one will make as dramatic a rise up my ranking as Hanson. I am a major fan of him. I see him possibly getting a shot in September of next year at the earliest. He may have posted the sickest 5-9 campaign last year.
23. Gregor Blanco – Outfield – Age: 23…I really have no idea what to think about with Blanco. I have this vibe that Blanco will not turn into a successful major league player, but then again, I could be (and probably will be) wrong. Last year, Blanco showed that miracles can happen and a Braves minor leaguer can post an OBP better than .400. Unfortunately, his SLG was much lower. This is not a homerun issue, but an extra-base issue in general. He simply lacks any power and only once, in 2004 with Myrtle Beach of all teams, was able to get his SLG over .400. Well, it was still .401, but still…impressive, huh?
In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Blanco has generally been a decent hitter in the terms of batting average. Last year, he set a new personal high with a .290 average between Mississippi and Richmond. Blanco reportedly possesses great speed, but is not a good base stealer. He has swiped better than 25 bases in all five of his minor league seasons, but only at a 70% clip. At the very least, the left-handed hitter could become Ryan Langerhans replacement. On the other hand, if things go his way, he could start in center in 2008 when Andruw Jones leaves.
ETA: Mid-to-Late 2007
Same ole', same ole' with Blanco. He really did little to earn much support for next year as a starting candidate. Disappointing campaign to say the least.
22. Kris Medlin – Right-Hand Pitcher – Age: 21…The Braves drafted 12 pitchers out of 15 selections in the first eleven rounds and Medlin was picked up in the tenth from Santa Ana College. In 22 innings with Danville, the young righty allowed all of 14 hits, one earned run, and a pair of walks. Oh, and he struck out 36.
Medlin will likely join Rome as their primary closer and the Braves have freely shown an open attitude to pushing relievers through the system fast so Medlin could hit the fast track if he has a good half-season with the Rome Braves. But right now, he can be pretty satisfied in his 0.41 ERA.
ETA: Late 2009
Medlen (not Medlin as I repeatily misspelled it) had three stops last year so I was right on about hitting the fast track. He is due to start next year with his last stop, Mississippi. His numbers at Rome and Myrtle Beach were elite and he got a Devineish amount of grounders. He also dominated Hawaii. Could see him knock on the door for Atlanta this year.
21. Jamie Romak – Outfield – Age: 21…The Braves are really adopting an almost sabermetric point-of-view. Example: Romak. He has failed to impress at all as far as batting average is concerned. Last year, the Canadian hit .247 and has hit .233 over 209 games. Nonetheless, he has shown great plate discipline and pretty good power, especially in the ballparks he has played in. John Schuerholz = Moneyball?
These are the reasons why I put a .233 hitter in my Top 30. Maybe Romak will never hit .300, but if he hits .260 at the major league level, he will still be very valuable. Think Kelly Johnson, but more power.
ETA: Late 2009
Soon after, the Pirates loved my review that they acquired Romak in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal. He dominated in the Sally League before heading to the Carlona League where he struggled to a .863 OPS to go with his .252 AVG. I saw him with Lynchburg and he reminds me of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He has a hole in his swing, but he hits the ball very hard. The Pirates got a major power hitting project with this Canadian.
Ruff?
The official dog of the Atlanta Braves, Mike Hampton, is back. Well, sorta. He pitched an inning in the Mexican League on Thanksgiving (way to be American, Mikey) and gave up a hit and struck out one in an inning. The hit oddly came against the only lefty he faced in the frame, but whatever.
Hat tip to sdp.bravesfan via this chopnation thread. He is also the owner of Chop Chat.
Hat tip to sdp.bravesfan via this chopnation thread. He is also the owner of Chop Chat.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Andruw won't be an Angel...
Andruw Jones's main competition for top free agent center fielder signed today with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of The United States of the Western Hemasphere of the planet Earth of the Milkey Way Galaxy. Torri Hunter is an okay ballplayer, but someone is going to have to explain how he got $18M a year over the next five seasons when he hasn't been that good. Let's look at a comparison between Andruw and Hunter.
Andruw career OPS+ = 113
Andruw last three years OPS+ = 117
Hunter career OPS+ = 104
Hunter last three years OPS+ = 113
Andruw career EQA = .281
Andruw last three years EQA = .283*
Hunter career EQA = .262
Hunter last three years EQA = .273*
Andruw defensive rate = 113
Andruw last three years rate = 104
Hunter career defensive rate = 102
Hunter last three years rate = 98
* = not exact...just took the final total of the last three years and averaged them out, but it's pretty close.
But Hunter had a nice year last year, critics will say. Yes, he posted a 122 adjusted OPS, two points off his best total of his career. For a five year period before 2007, Jones had a 124 adjusted OPS. Yay.
Andruw career OPS+ = 113
Andruw last three years OPS+ = 117
Hunter career OPS+ = 104
Hunter last three years OPS+ = 113
Andruw career EQA = .281
Andruw last three years EQA = .283*
Hunter career EQA = .262
Hunter last three years EQA = .273*
Andruw defensive rate = 113
Andruw last three years rate = 104
Hunter career defensive rate = 102
Hunter last three years rate = 98
* = not exact...just took the final total of the last three years and averaged them out, but it's pretty close.
But Hunter had a nice year last year, critics will say. Yes, he posted a 122 adjusted OPS, two points off his best total of his career. For a five year period before 2007, Jones had a 124 adjusted OPS. Yay.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Link for ya...
J.C. at Sabernomics always does a fantastic job and he pointed out some interesting numbers based on MPR, or margicial Revenue Product. I still need to sit down and understand this number thoroughly, but what I gather is it essentially looks at what a player should be making based on the market and his performance. Three Braves were ranked based on last year. No adjustments were made for position.
NL Cy Young
3. Tim Hudson, $15.22
5. John Smoltz, $13.73
NL MVP
5. Chipper Jones, $22.44
Still couldn't get to the playoffs...
NL Cy Young
3. Tim Hudson, $15.22
5. John Smoltz, $13.73
NL MVP
5. Chipper Jones, $22.44
Still couldn't get to the playoffs...
Catching up...
So, the Braves have had a busy few days. Time to see what's up and all that jazz.
Tom Glavine has signed a one-year, $8M deal. Had he been anyone else, I would have had a meet and greet. But that would be dumb. Anyway, the deal was finalized and Glavine said it was for the best. As much as I love nostalgia and my recent purchase of the TMNT movie plays up that fact, this signing does little for me. It's not a bad signing, but it's not a good signing. It just makes sense. Personally, I doubt Glavine will do much more than John Thomson when the latter was healthy. I have been wrong before, though. See: saying "I've been wrong before, though."
Braves added three pitchers to their 40 man roster in efforts to protect them. I often find at least one name that pisses me off to see. That name is going to be Charlie Morton. In years past, it was the likes of Mike fucking Hessman. Morton has had a nice fall league, but he's never been that good. I guess he could theoritically get it together as a bullpen guy, but don't see why he needed to be protected. Also added were J.C. or Jairo Cuevas and Zach Schreiber. I've heard the latter is a no stuff, good minor leaguer. Cuevas, however, has a live arm. Still, none of these names are that interesting. I guess there weren't many good players to be protected.
Um...oh, also in that article, Peterson Orr was desiginated for assignment. Can I get a w00t, w00t?
Happy thanksgiving peeps.
Tom Glavine has signed a one-year, $8M deal. Had he been anyone else, I would have had a meet and greet. But that would be dumb. Anyway, the deal was finalized and Glavine said it was for the best. As much as I love nostalgia and my recent purchase of the TMNT movie plays up that fact, this signing does little for me. It's not a bad signing, but it's not a good signing. It just makes sense. Personally, I doubt Glavine will do much more than John Thomson when the latter was healthy. I have been wrong before, though. See: saying "I've been wrong before, though."
Braves added three pitchers to their 40 man roster in efforts to protect them. I often find at least one name that pisses me off to see. That name is going to be Charlie Morton. In years past, it was the likes of Mike fucking Hessman. Morton has had a nice fall league, but he's never been that good. I guess he could theoritically get it together as a bullpen guy, but don't see why he needed to be protected. Also added were J.C. or Jairo Cuevas and Zach Schreiber. I've heard the latter is a no stuff, good minor leaguer. Cuevas, however, has a live arm. Still, none of these names are that interesting. I guess there weren't many good players to be protected.
Um...oh, also in that article, Peterson Orr was desiginated for assignment. Can I get a w00t, w00t?
Happy thanksgiving peeps.
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