DOB: The AJC Idea Man

Braves, Glavine to dance again?

Make it happen. Not because Glavine’s an ace at the peak of his career, but because he’s still a very good middle-rotation-quality starter who’ll pitch like a No. 1 or No. 2 many nights, who’ll probably give you 200 innings and 34-45 starts like he has every season, and be a great influence on young pitchers such as lefties Jo-Jo Reyes and Chuck James, assuming they’re still here.

I am going to say this one time, DOB. Glavine wasn't that good last year. Not "that good" because he had a down year, but not "that good" because he simply wasn't. When the season opens, Glavine will be 42 and can't strike out anyone. His ERA isn't even indicative of how poorly he pitched, even with the shitty last three games. His DERA was 4.52. It has climbed the last four years, but this year, it skyrocketed. It was his second worst full season DERA of his career (go back to his first full season for his worst). He's not going to be a "very good middle-rotation-quality starter who’ll pitch like a No. 1 or No. 2 many nights." If he's lucky, he'll outperform Chuck James.

If you can get him for $9 mill, give or take a mill, in this market that’s a bargain. (Dream - No, no, no) And also - this is important - because it’s only a one-year commitment, it should permit the Braves to go hard after a trade for a younger quality starter, a guy like Oakland’s Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, who could be available only because perpetually tight-budgeted Oakland needs to reload with prospects and knows it might have to dump one of its quality young arms to get a few young players in return.

I'm going to snip his Haren/Blanton talk. This isn't like trading for Hudson, who was in the final year of his contract. It's going to take Reyes/B.Jones/KJ to even start talking about Haren. Blanton, you might be able to put Lillibridge in for KJ, but this is going to be a helluva price to pay. Not that the Braves *can't* pay it, but it's going to put them into an odd position. Your young pitching is essentially down to Chuck James and...uh, here hopes Tommy Hansen stays healthy and moves fast.

You would pay Glavine and either one of these guys less combined in 2008 and than you’d pay any of the few good free-agent pitchers on the market, and about $5-7 million or more less than you’d have to pay a Johan Santana in 2008 (not that he’s a Braves option; too rich for this payroll).

Imagine, if you will, a Braves rotation with Smoltz, Hudson, Haren (or Blanton), Glavine, and Hampton (if healthy, he has to be in it because of salary). If Hampton’s not healthy, then you go Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes or Jeff Bennett, or maybe even Manny Acosta (he’s going to work as a starter this winter, see if that role might fit him; Braves already know he can be a real good reliever).

Folks, you win the NL East with that rotation, regardless of who you get to replace Andruw (and we can cover that later, though I think Mike Cameron is a serious candidate, more so by the day. Randy Winn would also be a good option).

Shizzle my nizzle, I agree with DOB on Winn and I think he's been stealing from me. At Chopnation, I started a thread on CF Targets and I really like the idea of going after Winn, especially if the Giants pick up some of the remaining $16M+ salary over the next couple of years.

Oh, and one more obvious reason to bring back Glavine: It would be a great story for the Braves, who’d have Smoltz and Glavine back together for what could be Bobby Cox’s final season.

I know Glavine has detractors for things he said more than a decade ago, for his union leadership, and for going to the Mets as a free agent five years ago.

And I certainly respect those views. I really do.

But consider that there are going to be no better bargains (or ones requiring only one-year commitments) among pitching free agents than Glavine, who was 13-6 with a 3.88 ERA in his first 31 starts this season, before stumbling big-time at 0-2 with a 14.81 ERA in his last three starts.

Err, remember when I said I would mention his season one time. Okay, here is a second time. Truth is...his ERA should have been MUCH MUCH worse even before those three starts. And um, a 41 year-old absolutely sucking down the stretch isn't a sign, is it? Means nothing, right? AJC - Logic is secondary.

John Smoltz and Tim Hudson were 30-16 with a 3.15 ERA this season and combined for 430 innings. But of the eight others who started games for the Braves, only Chuck James (11-10, 161-1/3 innings) and Buddy Carlyle (8-7, 104 innings) had as many as five wins or 90 innings.

Yes, it was a bad year. Yes, Glavine will likely stay healthy. Yes, he'll probably pitch 180 or more innings. No, that doesn't mean he'll be a significant improvement.

Add Glavine and a Haren or Blanton (or a lesser-but-durable pitcher from elsewhere), and without spending a ton in 2008 you’ve transformed a rotation that went just 58-58 this season and pitched only 917 innings, with a 4.45 ERA that ranked 7th in the NL.

So shitty, yet it didn't rank that shitty compared to other teams in team ERA. Hmm...maybe their win-loss record should have been better if they had a better defense or Bob Wickfattyass wasn't closing? Nah...it's all on the pitchers for they play every position on the field.

The only NL rotations that produced fewer innings were the injury-riddled units with the Cardinals, Nationals and Marlins, who had the three worst starters’ ERAs in the league.

Fucking assholes. How dare they get dragged down. By the way, if you think Bobby has a quick hook with starters who aren't Cy Young contenders, raise your hand.

Glavine can’t file for free agency until after the World Series, like everyone else. And the Braves aren’t permitted to talk to him or other free agents, at least not officially, before then.

The Braves's CIA is on it, though.

But if the Braves aren’t ready with an offer in early November, as soon as its permitted, or if they low-ball Glavine by asking him to take $6-7 mill, then they have no one to blame but themselves and should expect no sympathy.

I agree, I would show no sympathy for them. On the other hand, I would respect Schuerholz for not being an idiot and handing over a lot of cash to a question mark. Would be a nice change.

If they don’t want him because they believe he doesn’t have enough left, well, then say it. But Bobby Cox has said repeatedly that Glavine has plenty left, and Smoltz has said he’s still as good as ever (I don’t buy that, but Smoltz knows a hell of a lot more about pitching than I do, so I’ll assume Glavine at least is still good).

The article goes on, but this is where I'll stop. When has Bobby Cox ever said, "well, he just doesn't have anything left." The guy was waxing positive on Redman. And Smoltzie sticking up for a best friend? Wowzors, imagine my shock. Later today, I've heard rumors the sun will set in the west, but I don't buy it. We'll see about that one.

Way to use critical analysis.

A-Z Reviews: C

Buddy Carlyle
-I was a big supporter of My Buddy getting his first real shot after 21 games in three seasons spaced over six years accounting for all of his major league experience. He started well. From his Braves debut on May 26th to my birthday on August 7th, Buddy was 7-3 with an ERA of 4.28 and a solid WHIP of 1.22. But as usual, the wheels come off a good story that involves my birthday. In his final eight games, seven of them starts, Buddy posted a 7.47 ERA, would be assuming if his last name was Boing. Batters posted a 1.027 OPS against him. It was ugly. I cried.

2008 Outlook: Buddy is what I like to call...not good. I'm marketing that. In one sense, he got his shot and prevailed by just simply sticking around. But he is not good enough to last. With the Braves not forced to make a decision with him (he has sometime before arbitration), I expect to see him stick around and battle for a spot next year, but likely will be cut.

Steve Colyer
-Colyer was a late favorite of Bobby's last spring training and after being a last minute cut, got his chance in mid-April. In seven games, however, the southpaw was able to record just eleven outs. That's not good even of a LOOGY. He was designated for assignment in early May.

2008 Outlook: A minor league contract or another league is in his future. Colyer is only a semi-known name to people like me because he took off in my OOTP game one time. Became the Mets closer and I routinely blasted him.

Lance Cormier
-When Cormier came out of nowhere to have a great spring and suddenly get a lot of support in the franchise, I was quite concerned because I knew the real Cormier. The real one is a lot of sucktitude. Injuries kept him out until June 3rd and this is how bad his first game was. In his second game, in which he gave up five runs in 3.2 ING, Cormier lowered his ERA to 15.26. He was back out of the picture until the trade of Kyle Davies brought him back in August. After a relief appearence, he sucked again as a starter. However, a decent run followed. In his next four starts, he posted a 3.24 ERA and hitters batted just .234 against them, though they made five of them count in the form of homers. After reverting back to Real Cormier (not Rheal Cormier), Cormier made his last appearance on September 15th.

2008 Outlook: Cormier is arbitration eligible and he's the exact type of pitcher you should never pay more than the minimum for. However, I expect him to receive unearned raise and bug me next year like he did this year.

A-Z Reviews: B

Kevin Barry
-It's nothing personal, Kev. I just hate you. Maybe it's that big bulbous head. Maybe it's your complete lack of stuff. Barry is the latest Brad Woodall, a decent AAA pitcher who occasionally gets shots. He logged two major league innings with the Braves this year and trust me, that was entirely too much. With Richmond, Barry was 5- with 4.14 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Toward the end of the year, he was desiginated for assignment and as far as I can see, should be a minor league free agent this year.

2008 Outlook: Will be a swingman for a couple of AAA teams, but his time in the Braves organization is probably over and he will likely want to move on anyway.

Jeff Bennett
-The Braves called upon Bennett when in dire need of another Buddy Carlyle and he delievered much like Carlyle did. But unlike the Carlyle Effect, the season ended before the real crap could be shown. So, we are left with some good numbers over three games, two starts. Bennett was 2-1 with 14 K's in 13 innings and a 3.46 ERA. However, with Richmond, Bennett struck out just 45 in 86 innings. Elbow issues cost him 2006 and he signed with the Braves for 2007. All in all, Bennett is a nice story, but likely not a key contributor to anyone's pitching staff.

2008 Outlook: The Braves will likely bring him back and maybe throw him a bone as a fifth starter candidate, but Bennett's best chance at making next year's roster is as a long reliever. However, chances are good he will be in Richmond next year.

Blaine Boyer
-Boyer is two years removed from his solid showing in 2005 when he had some control problems, but also got batters out for what was then a dreadful bullpen. Injuries have sapped him two consecutive full seasons. He spent most of last year with Richmond, getting some starts, and not fairing too well. His ERA wasn't too horrible at 4.30, but his WHIP was extremely high at 1.72.

2008 Outlook: Boyer's chances of making next year's roster are slim right now. His control was off-the-charts terrible last year (50 walks in 73.1 ING). There is no doubt there is some potential in his right arm, but he needs to find the strikezone more frequently to take advantage of it. He seems to be well liked by the organization that drafted him out of Atlanta in the 2000 third round, but at 26, his time with his first professional organization could be coming to close if he doesn't re-establish himself.

A-Z Reviews: A

Time for to start the reviews of the 49 players who logged a game with the Braves this year. Some are already gone, some could be around for years.

Manny Acosta
-Manny was a bit of a surprise callup in mid August even after pacing the R-Braves in wins (nine) and saves (12). In 59.2 ING with Richmond, he walked 35, continuing a problem for him since he debuted in baseball in the Yankees organization in 2000. Nevertheless, Acosta got outs at the major league level. In 23.2 ING, he allowed just six earned runs (2.28 ERA) and struck out 22. Walks were again a problem (14), but he didn't give up many hits, leading to a solid WHIP of 1.14. He was a bit too lucky to get excited about and as long as the walks are high, his success is questionable. However, it was a solid 21 games for someone without a shred of major league experience.

2008 Outlook: He will turn 27 next May 1st so his prospect days are behind him. He will go as far as his control lets him. He seemed to get a lot of grounders and that is key whenever you walk batters because it means that you're missing low instead of leaving pitches high. Those seem to get hammered. Acosta is a long shot to continue to have success next year. He will probably make the roster, but not stick around.

Jose Ascanio
-Along with Joey D., Ascanio was on the shuttle between Mississippi and Atlanta for a good portion of the year. He made his major league debut on July 13th and over the next six days, appeared three times. Then, presumably after a demotion, he appeared in 2 games out of three in late July. Back to the minors, he got recalled in late August. At Mississippi, Ascanio was a force. In 44 games and pitching 78 innings, the 22 year-old struck out 71 and walked just 18. He saved ten and put up a solid 1.08 WHIP. He was finally getting the arm back that had him a hot prospect after 2004 before an injury in 2005 pretty much wiped out the next two seasons of being at his best. Unlike his teammate Acosta, Ascanio struggled some in the majors. He had a memorable loss on July 18th when the Braves failed to beat the Reds in 15 innings and got swept. He also got roughed up on a pair of occasions against the Mets and Marlins.

2008 Outlook: I feel as if Ascanio will be more productive than Acosta. With Devine, I feel Ascanio can be a long-term arm with a lot of success if he can stay healthy. Could start the year with Richmond next year because of a numbers crunch, but I expect him to log 50 or so innings with the big league club. Last year, I felt good about Moylan and that turned out well. Not saying Ascanio will have such a great year, but don't be surprised if he puts up a very solid 2008.

Just when I thought I was done...

The AJC has to pull me back. Here's a fun dumbass bit from Jeff Schultz.

10: Say this for Tom Glavine: When he ends a relationship, he takes a statistical wrecking a ball to that sucker.

9: Tommy G’s final two starts with the Braves came in the 2002 playoffs: He lost both, allowing 13 earned runs on 17 hits and seven walks in 7 2/3 innings (ERA: 15.26). Glavine’s final three starts with the New York Mets: 0-2, 17 earned runs (including four home runs) on 25 hits in 10 1/3 innings (ERA: 14.81). So much for the goal of leaving them wanting more.

8: OK, that said, yes, Glavine would still be an asset to the Braves. Putting aside all of the warm-and-fuzziness of Glavine retiring as a Brave, we’re not about an objective of him being a staff ace. Given what we all saw this season, is there really a belief that he’s not good enough to be a No. 3 or possibly 4 starter in this rotation for one season? He threw 200 1/3 innings this season. His arm was dead at the end. But 200 1/3 innings would’ve ranked third on the Braves’ staff, right behind John Smoltz (205 2/3), and way ahead of Chuck James (161 1/3). What would that have meant for the rotation? And the bullpen? And playoff chances?

Jeff spends two paragraphs ripping Glavine's shitty final starts for the only two teams he has played for, then speaks of him being an asset. Now, I don't like Chuck James that much and Glavine definitely pitched better than James, but Glavine's like 60 years old by now (yay, 5 year contract!) and showed that he had nothing toward mid-September and, of course, the end of September.

Glavine won't come cheap either. It's not like he's on the street with a sign, "will throw six inches off the plate for food." James will be cheap next year. Advantage = southern boy. Tom Glavine has a player's option sitting out there for $13M.

Yeah, good job on that one, Omar Minaya.

He's not a $13M pitcher. Hell, I wouldn't give $6.5M for him. And it's a major suspension of belief to come to the conclusion that he'll accept much less than eight figures. Move on, people. Move the hell on.

Uh oh, it's Terence...

Terence Moore and I have a love-hate relationship.

To specify, I hate himself so much that I love when he comes out with such stupidity. I don't like Dave O'Brien and Mark Bowman annoys me, but they can't help being who they are. I feel Moore can...but chooses to not.

Braves make big mistake letting Andruw go

Oh, goody. Off to a great start. The Braves latest big mistake was letting the .220-hitting, rapidly aging Andruw Jones go. Hmm...maybe he likes the name of my blog, too.

Bad move.

Terrible move.

Actually, this is an atrocious move for the Braves, because manager Bobby Cox had it right for eternity when he said of Andruw Jones, who ranks 1a, 1b or 1c among baseball’s center fielders for the ages, “He has RBIs in his glove.”

Oh, the suspense. Was it bad or terrible? No, it was atrocious! I could have deleted bad and terrible, but I'm going for suspense!

It didn’t matter that Jones often looked ridiculous for long stretches after swinging and missing at pitches in search of reaching the farthest dark hole. Who cared that his batting average spent two seasons going south instead of north? No, he wasn’t much in the clutch this year, and yes, his agent is Scott Boras, the bogeyman for teams wishing to sign one of Boras’ clients below the amount of the national debt.

Who cares? Um, the Braves maybe? Jeez, Terrence, I don't know. By the way, whatever you define clutch by (I call it luck, but whatever), Andruw's career RISP is .254/.360/.444. This year? .231/.360/.439. A big jump in AVG, but a .005 point jump in SLG and OPS. No, he wasn’t much in the clutch this year

And, yes, the Braves can ease some of the post-Jones trauma with the signing of free agent Torii Hunter, the former center fielder and slugger for the Minnesota Twins. He also has a magic glove, and even though he can’t slug with Jones, he is more consistent at the plate with his ability to sustain hitting streaks.

Yes, Terence. The value of a player is not how frequently he gets on base, but whether or not he is "consistent" at "sustaining" streaks in which he gets one hit or more in a game. At value here with all the information on players that readily available is whether or not he can get a single in any amount of consecutive games. Hunter is not even that much more of a AVG hitter. He has batted .271 over his career, a wonderful eight points better than Andruw. Jeez.

That said, with the new folks at Liberty Media claiming they are willing to increase the payroll, the Braves’ Designated Geniuses should have discovered ways to acquire much-needed starting pitching while keeping Jones. In fact, Jones was part of the solution regarding that starting pitching. He is the hidden reason the Braves produced Cy Glavine, Cy Smoltz and Cy Maddux, along with all of those consecutive years of team ERAs that ranked first or second in baseball. He caught everything. He threw out everybody. He made the spectacular routine. He did so through an 11th year with the Braves that will produce a 10th Gold Glove, but management will shove Jones out the door by allowing him to become a free agent while yawning.

Well, mostly yawning. As a lifetime Braves player who contributed heavily to the franchise’s record 14 consecutive division titles, Braves officials will continue to say nice things about Jones as they wave good-bye. Still, the bottom line remains: He’s gone, and he’s only 30, and history comes to mind. Not in a good way, especially if the baseball gods wish to spank the Braves for their short-sightedness.

On one hand, Moore has a point. Andruw's defense was very helpful to the pitching success the Braves reached. Was he the hidden reason? No, but in a sense, again, his defense is underscored.

Andruw's RAA 1998-2007
98...22
99...19
00...13
01...10
02...11
03...18
04...-1
05...-5
06...-3
07...-1

Since Andruw's obvious lost step between 2003 and 2004, the Braves have only won one ERA title and have not had one Cy Young winner.

Here's Moore's problem. He doesn't account for that lost step. He also doesn't understand a lot about the relationship between defense and pitching. Yes, Andruw helps his pitching. His pitching also helps him out. His greatest numbers came before Glavine and Maddux left town. So, in essence, they were also the hidden reason Andruw looked so great. Their control led to balls he, from CF, could get a better read on because he was positioned correctly and they were hitting their spots.

Again, Andruw made them look better and he will be missed, but at the beginning of this column, Moore quoted Bobby. "He has RBIs in his glove." Yes, and they are measured by RAA. Listen, Andruw can't help the fact he gets little help from his corner outfielders and his pitchers and that does hurt him defensively and yes, he's still an incredible guy out there.

But at no time in Moore's column does he speak of what Andruw does at the plate in a positive manner except to say he outslugs Torii Hunter's career IsoSLG of .192. So, we're essentially talking about Andruw's defense and I'm here to tell you...it's great, but it ain't that great. I spent all season talking about what Andruw leaving will bring. I accept it, though, because this game, while it tends to ignore defense too many times in the modern age, is still a game played with a bat in addition to the glove. And while Andruw is a good hitter if you accept that he simply had a collassal failure of a year, Andruw's still just a guy with an adjusted OPS that is 15% better than the average. He is not, in no way, shape, or form a $15M type player.

Moore continues...though, truly, this next part is just Moore's personal masturbatory material.

Consider 1966. That was the first year Frank Robinson played for the Baltimore Orioles, and it was the first year of David Justice’s life.

Let’s start with Robinson, the undisputed star of the Cincinnati Reds for nearly a decade. He was traded to the Orioles for nothing worth mentioning before that 1966 season, because Reds owner Bill DeWitt said Robinson was “an old 30.” All that a creaky Robinson did in his first season with the Orioles was take the American League’s Triple Crown Award, lead them to their first world championship and grab World Series MVP honors. He eventually pushed the Orioles to three more pennants and another world championship (over the Reds), and then trotted to Cooperstown from there.

As for Justice, the batting hero of the Atlanta Braves’ only world championship in 1995, he suffered a shoulder injury early during that next season, and then he was dealt to the Cleveland Indians before the following year for nothing worth mentioning.

He was …

That’s right, 30.

Justice immediately slugged the Indians to their second World Series in three years. He later joined the New York Yankees, where he became the MVP of the AL championship series before helping to lead the pinstripe bunch to another world championship. When he ended his career with a playoff trip with the Oakland A’s, he had reached the playoffs six times after his trade from the Braves. He also retired as the all-time postseason leader in games played, at bats, extra-base hits, runs, hits, total bases, walks and RBIs.

This isn’t to say Jones will become Robinson or even Justice during his post-Braves career.

This is to say why even take the chance?

Why? Because David Justice allowed the Braves to keep Glavine and Maddux. Moore's love for David Justice is on par with Joe Morgan's dreamy eyes for Gary Sheffield. According to Morgan, the Tigers problems has nothing to do with their pitching not being healthy as an effective as it was in 2006. It was all Sheffield. Well, Moore's little obsession with Justice is an every column add-in.

Justice was an asshole. He wasn't traded because he was, but he was an asshole. He was also expensive and coming off an injury - and beginning to look injury-prone. In his career, he had played in 150 games once. The Braves needed to find money somewhere to keep the pitching together. They were loaded at the time with outfield prospects, too, including Andruw Jones. Yes, Justice had some great time in the AL. The DH was keeping him healthy, too.

The implication that Justice got his teams to the playoffs is laughable. He played on some damn good teams after his trade. But he didn't make his teams that much better.

Jones will make his team better, I believe. His defense will help out. But Andruw is not on his way out cause he's 30. He's on his way out because he doesn't provide nearly enough bang for the Braves buck. He's out because he has more trouble the past two seasons than ever with injuries.

Andruw's gone because it's best for the Braves.

Cry, Terence, cry.

I do like how you closed comments because you were being made a fool of.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Andruw Jones is no longer an Atlanta Brave. I'm split on this. I'm glad it's over and done with, but dammit man, what am I supposed to do about the title of this biannually updated blog?

You were my inspiration, Andruw. My silver lining. My...je ne sais quoi.

Now, you are gone and I feel incomplete.

Oh, what's this...

Not quite there, Thor, but close. Now, if we can only get you to stick around...